Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the rapid advancements in nuclear fusion projects both domestically and internationally, highlighting significant investments and technological breakthroughs that could lead to commercial viability in the near future [2][6][21]. Group 1: Recent Developments in Domestic Fusion Projects - The "BEST" project has commenced assembly ahead of schedule, with the goal of completing construction by 2027 [4]. - Various tenders related to the "BEST" and "Xinghuo No. 1" projects have been launched, indicating a robust pipeline of activities and investments [4][6]. - The "Chinese Circulation No. 3" project achieved a significant milestone with a fusion triple product reaching 10^20, marking a critical advancement in plasma performance [4]. Group 2: Investment and Financing Trends - TAE Technologies, a leading U.S. fusion company, raised over $150 million in its latest funding round, bringing its total funding to $1.35 billion, with participation from major investors like Chevron and Google [6]. - Japan announced an additional investment of 10 billion yen (approximately $69 million) into its three major fusion research institutions, aiming for commercialization in the 2030s [6]. - The UK government plans to invest £2.5 billion over the next five years to advance its fusion energy initiatives, including the STEP project [6]. Group 3: Technological Innovations Driving Progress - Innovative magnetic field structures, such as spherical tokamaks, are expected to enhance confinement performance and increase fusion power output in smaller volumes [8]. - The application of high-temperature superconductors is anticipated to significantly improve fusion output power by allowing for higher current densities and stronger magnetic fields [12][14]. - The integration of AI and supercomputing technologies is facilitating real-time predictions and optimizations in plasma behavior, thereby accelerating research and development processes [16]. Group 4: Global Competition and Market Dynamics - The U.S. and China are the largest investors in nuclear fusion, with China's investment growth outpacing that of the U.S. in recent years [18][23]. - As of 2024, the U.S. has invested $5.63 billion in fusion, while China has invested $2.49 billion, indicating a competitive landscape [23]. - The article outlines the potential for fusion energy to meet global energy demands sustainably, with significant advantages over traditional energy sources [21][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Application Scenarios - The most optimistic projections suggest that the first fusion power plant could connect to the grid between 2025 and 2030, while a more conservative estimate places this timeline between 2031 and 2035 [48]. - The potential applications of nuclear fusion include electricity generation, industrial heating, and propulsion for spacecraft, with key developments expected around 2030 [53][55]. - The article highlights a "three-step" strategy for China's fusion energy application, progressing from experimental validation to commercial demonstration [42].

证券研究报告 能源转型：可控核聚变发展加速，助力能源转型 华安证券研究所 张志邦（SAC职业证书号S0010523120004）zhangzhibang@hazq.com 王 璐（SAC职业证书号S0010525040001）wanglu1@hazq.com 2025年6月20日 目录 1.为什么现在关注核聚变？ 2.国内外核聚变行业进展及格局如何？ 2.1国内：科研院所引领，商业公司跟进 2.2国外：美国公司数量领先/技术多元，最早在2028实现聚变能源商业化 3.如何展望行业后续节奏？ 3.1后续展望：核聚变商业化发电时间在2030年代、落地场景多样、存在供给侧约束问题 4.核聚变板块投资机会梳理 4.1核聚变制造端产业链解析 附录：可控核聚变介绍 2 1.1短期有进展：国内外聚变项目招标/融资密集落地，商业/技术进展加快 1.2中期有加速：AI/高端材料等技术创新的带动下，聚变输出功率提升超预期 1.3重要性提升：全球竞赛的重要一环，能源转型的重要导向 1 为什么现在关注核聚变？ 3 1.1 国内外核聚变项目的近期进展 4 国内聚变项目开工/招标/技术进展加速 | 1 | 项目开工建设 | | --- ...