证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 13 日 DoD 入股 MP 以加速美国稀土磁体独立，但 短期全球稀土永磁体生产仍高度集中于中国 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比下跌，国内 NPI 冶炼厂成本倒挂依 然严重 截止到 7 月 11 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 14955 美元/ 吨，较 7 月 4 日下跌 1.09%，LME 镍总库存为 206178 吨，较 7 月 4 日增加 1.83%；沪镍报收 12.14 万元/吨，较 7 月 4 日下 跌 0.83%，沪镍库存为 25,047.00 吨，较 7 月 4 日增加 0.50%；截止到 7 月 11 日，硫酸镍报收 27,900.00 元/吨，较 7 月 4 日价格下跌 2.11%。根据 SMM，从供给端来看，菲律宾 主产区矿区降雨影响较小。进入 7 月，预计整体三季度发运量 都将维持较高水平，矿到港量将继续增加，供应充足。截止到 7 月 11 日，中国镍矿港口库存增加至 720 万湿吨。前期发运 船只陆续到港，库存增加。受于超长雨 ...

Group 1 - The core conflict revolves around the strategic importance of rare earth elements, with the U.S. leading an "Indo-Pacific Rare Earth Alliance" to reduce dependence on China, while China responds with a significant overhaul of its mineral resources law [1][3][7] - Rare earth elements are critical for modern warfare technologies, with China controlling 70% of global mining and 90% of refining capabilities, making it indispensable for Western military applications [3][5] - The alliance's ambitious plans to establish a supply chain within five years face significant challenges, as member countries struggle with internal issues and lack the necessary infrastructure and technology to compete with China [5][11] Group 2 - China's new mineral resources law aims to centralize control over rare earth resources, enhancing efficiency and establishing a strategic reserve system to support national military needs [7][9] - The law includes measures to ensure that foreign companies must register patents in China to access rare earth resources, reinforcing China's control over its strategic assets [9][11] - China's dominance in rare earth technology is highlighted by its advanced extraction and refining processes, which significantly outperform those of its competitors, making it nearly impossible for them to catch up [14][16] Group 3 - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with Western companies like Bosch and Siemens seeking to secure contracts with China, indicating a reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies [12][14] - The U.S. military faces urgent supply shortages, particularly for the F-35 program, which is heavily dependent on rare earth elements, projecting a 50% shortfall by 2026 [12][14] - The failure of the alliance exposes the fragmented nature of Western efforts, with member countries unable to coordinate effectively, leading to internal conflicts and project delays [12][16] Group 4 - The outcome of the rare earth conflict appears to favor China, as its comprehensive control over the supply chain and strategic resources positions it as a dominant player in the global market [18][19] - The narrative emphasizes that the struggle for rare earth resources is not merely about materials but reflects broader national power dynamics, with China asserting its position through legal and technological means [18][19] - The future of the rare earth market is expected to be increasingly competitive, with China's advancements in monitoring and production capabilities solidifying its leadership [19]

"我回来以后，飞利浦卷起来了。公司在过去一年迎难而上，是打不死的小强的状态。" "我们都做好了准备，要打硬仗。"飞利浦大中华区总裁刘令近期对第一财经记者说。 2024年7月，刘令升任大中华区总裁之时，恰逢飞利浦在中国失速之际。这一年飞利浦在中国市场的收入出 现两位数下滑。GE医疗、西门子医疗在中国市场的境况相似。 GE医疗、飞利浦和西门子医疗（下称GPS）三家企业在中国市场集体失速。同时，他们在全球市场受到关 税战冲击，分别损失数亿美元。在全球、在中国，GPS都需要一张新的航海图。 "挑战会持续" GPS在全球医疗器械市场举足轻重，意味着逃不开贸易战的波及。 西门子医疗的总部在德国，飞利浦的总部在荷兰，GE医疗的总部在美国。美国是全球第一大医疗健康市 场，也是GPS最大单一市场。这些企业根据不同市场份量，配以不同比例的员工以及研发力量，比如西门 医疗在美国员工数量远比中国员工数量更多。 GPS在美国和欧洲都有生产制造基地，但跨大西洋的零部件和整机进出口依然频繁。这使得GPS成为关税战 的主要受影响方。 西门子医疗的第二季度财报电话会上，该公司管理层预计，美国对欧洲出口商品加征的关税可能给其全年 带来2亿至3亿 ...

有美国学者一语道破，实际上欧洲并没有"中国牌"可打。由于中欧经济相互高度依赖，欧盟对中国的施 压空间相当有限，中方的反击让其认清了这一现实。 "欧盟一边对华不满，另一边遭美加税" 这篇文章写道，欧盟一开始就是为了促进跨境商业而诞生的，一直是自由贸易的坚定捍卫者。可随着美 国为缩小贸易逆差、增加财政收入并推动本土制造业而扰乱全球贸易体系，欧盟正变得愈发孤立。 【文/观察者网 柳白】特朗普政府磨刀霍霍的关税政策，搅乱了全球经济发展的"一池春水"。而面对中 方持续释放的善意与合作信号，欧盟却故作"矫情"，无法摆脱对美幻想，甚至对华采取限制措施。 "欧盟发现自己陷入了中美之间的地缘政治困境。"美国《纽约时报》在7月6日发表的文章中指出，一方 面，欧盟试图与特朗普政府达成贸易协议框架，以避免被征收高额关税；另一方面，欧盟不满中国在俄 乌等问题上的政策，最近还以"不公平竞争"为由限制采购中国设备，可面对全球贸易局势动荡，又不得 不与中国这个全球制造业强国保持相对稳定的关系。 值得注意的是，欧盟针对中国产品设置贸易壁垒，往往很快遭致中方精准反击：对欧盟猪肉、白兰地展 开反倾销调查、对欧盟部分乳制品发起发补贴调查……7月6日 ...

Group 1 - India's plan to boost domestic production of rare earth magnets has garnered initial interest from several large corporate groups [1] - The Indian government intends to provide incentives of up to 25 billion rupees (approximately 2.9 million USD) to private companies involved in the production of these magnets [1] - Major companies showing interest include Vedanta Group, led by billionaire Anil Agarwal, JSW Group, headed by Sajjan Jindal, and electric vehicle component manufacturer Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd. [1]

为什么这事突然成为紧急议题？这里面不得不说最近真实发生的"多线威胁"：比如2024年发生的波罗的海天然气管道疑似破 坏、欧洲多国通讯链路遭受激烈网络攻击，更不用说德国国防部长最近明确警告"未来4年可能有欧盟成员国遭受实质性军事袭 击"。这些信息，拼凑出的画风非常凛冽——不只是战场战火，混合威胁（Physical+Cyber）才是欧盟官员心头最大的噩梦。 说实话，以前大部分人觉得稀土矿啥的离民众生活很远。其实不然！你手中的智能手机、电动汽车，还是医院那些高端医疗设 备，基本都离不开稀土里的钕、镝这些金属。而欧洲生产这类高端工业品，绝大部分原料还全靠进口（80%以上来自中国）， 只要亚洲某地一有风吹草动，欧洲就得"提心吊胆"。 "刚刚，欧盟内部传出一则消息，让整个矿业和能源领域集体'炸锅'——欧盟正酝酿一项史无前例的'紧急战略储备'计划，连稀 土矿物、永磁体、电缆维保模块这些听起来异常专业的备品，都要统统囤上一批！有人说，这背后藏着欧盟对战争和地缘不确 定性的最大恐惧。到底发生了什么，让27国集团如此如临大敌？" 自2022年俄乌冲突爆发后，欧洲的能源"痛点"彻底暴露：供暖季缺气、军工原料告急、关键设备一旦断供全 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the geopolitical dilemma faced by the EU as it navigates between the US and China, highlighting its attempts to establish trade agreements with the US while simultaneously managing its relationship with China [1][3][11] - The EU has imposed trade barriers against Chinese products, citing unfair competition, which has led to retaliatory measures from China, including anti-dumping investigations on EU products [1][6][17] - The EU's exports to China are declining while imports from China are increasing, prompting EU decision-makers to tighten restrictions on Chinese goods [6][11][18] Group 2 - The EU is exploring new trade partnerships with a group of 11 countries, excluding the US and China, indicating a shift in its trade strategy [5] - Despite the EU's criticisms of China regarding trade practices and geopolitical issues, the economic interdependence between the two regions limits the EU's ability to exert pressure on China [11][13] - The article notes that the EU's reliance on Chinese industrial materials remains significant, complicating its stance against China [10][18] Group 3 - The EU's recent measures to restrict Chinese participation in public procurement for medical devices are framed as necessary for fair competition, but have led to reciprocal actions from China [6][9] - The article highlights the EU's ongoing challenges in balancing its trade policies with both the US and China, as it faces pressure from both sides [8][10] - The EU's leadership is expected to continue pressing China for more stable supply channels for critical materials like rare earths during upcoming summits [15][18]

"AI与核能利用，是两件可以改变21世纪人类生活面貌的伟大事物。"OpenAI首席执行官山姆·阿尔特曼曾断言。 人工智能与核能，就像是通向未来文明的两条轨道——一条正在重塑智能的本质，另一条则试图驯服来自宇宙本源的能量。 更重要的是，这两条轨道正在交汇协同。一方面，AI发展迅猛，算力需求暴增，进而引发能源消耗的问题。而核能，尤其是可控核聚变，被视为解决这 一挑战的关键。另一方面，AI或许将助力核能发展，不仅可以把控核反应系统，或许还能参与到反应本身的实时控制。2025年6月，核电公司泰拉能源 （TerraPower）宣布完成6.5亿美元融资，英伟达是新投资方之一。 丰叔曾经在播客节目里提到，如果我们能够掌握可控核聚变，那就意味着我们不再只是被动接收太阳辐射出的能量，而是能够主动制造能量。也就是说， 人类自己成为了"太阳"。 那么，可控核聚变的寻梦之旅还有多远？ 在本篇行研，我们将聚焦可控核聚变这一终极能源命题，探讨它的发展难点、产业进展、跨领域影响，以及背后的创业与投资机会。我们希望提供一种新 的视角，去理解这项技术如何影响未来的能源格局、科技生态乃至文明的走向。 / 01 /什么是核反应？ 无论是核聚变还是 ...

Industry Insights - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes the need to enhance the resource security of important metal minerals and accelerate the comprehensive development of the non-ferrous metal industry chain, including exploration, investment, development, construction, smelting, and processing [1] - A new round of mineral exploration strategy is being implemented to increase reserves and production of important metal minerals, while also promoting a positive image of central enterprises in the "going out" strategy [1] - There is a focus on achieving high-quality stable growth by closely monitoring macroeconomic conditions and industry trends, adjusting business strategies, and planning major projects to support domestic demand expansion [1] Technology and Market Trends - High-temperature superconductors are expected to see increased market share due to ongoing developments in superconducting cables and controlled nuclear fusion applications [2] - The ReBCO tape is anticipated to significantly reduce production costs compared to first-generation high-temperature superconductors, presenting vast commercial prospects [2] - Controlled nuclear fusion is viewed as a potential ultimate solution for human energy needs, with commercial development prospects expected to accelerate as domestic and international projects progress [2] Company Developments - Western Superconductor is the only company in China that has achieved commercial production of superconducting wires, with products used in major scientific projects such as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) and China's fusion reactor [3] - Baile Electric has developed superconducting current limiter technology and is involved in the construction of smart grids for the State Grid, with products certified by IEC to enhance grid stability [3] - Dongfang Tantalum is recognized as the world's largest research and manufacturing base for superconducting niobium materials, achieving a stable RRR value of over 500 for high-purity superconducting niobium materials [4]

以下文章来源于远川科技评论 ，作者徐珊珊 （ID：kechuangych） 今年6月，铃木汽车突然宣布，受限于稀土出口管制，零部件采购出现延误，经典紧凑型 轿车铃木雨燕（Swift）被迫停产。 无独有偶，欧洲汽车零部件供应商也在同时期关闭生产线，美国企业同样如临大敌，福 特探险者车型生产紧急按下暂停键。 远川科技评论 . 刻画这个时代（的前沿科技） 不是一场资源战。 作者 | 徐珊珊 作者 | 李墨天 来源 | 远川科技评论 按照大摩的测算，中国企业控制全球65%的重稀土开采、88%的精炼，超过90%的钕 铁 硼 永 磁 体 供 应 。 这 也 是 为 什 么 CNN 将 稀 土 引 发 的 供 应 危 机 称 为 " 升 级 版 的 芯 片 短 缺"[1]。 2010年日本巡逻船钓鱼岛冲撞中国渔船事件发生后，中国对日稀土出口配额骤降，主要 稀土氧化物价格涨幅超过5倍，镝铽铕三种金属涨幅同比达到15-20倍[4]，欧美国家一 时草木皆兵。 从2011年开始，美日等国就以摆脱依赖为目的开启了一系列替代计划。当时普遍预计， 防止稀土危机再次到来普遍需要10年左右。 15年过去，稀土危机再次上演，按照美国能源部的测 ...