（文章来源：第一财经） 开源证券指出，可控核聚变装置研发建设稳步推进，BEST、星火一号、先觉聚能、环流四号项目有望 陆续开工，核心部件订单有望持续释放；TMTG并购TAE打造全球首家商业聚变上市公司，有望提振 FRC板块情绪；Helion曾官宣将于2025年内实现发电验证，若FRC技术路线工程可行性得到验证，国内 相关初创公司项目有望加速推进；十五五规划建议前瞻布局核聚变能领域；我们看好板块长期发展前 景，建议关注磁体、主机和电源等核心部件。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the controllable nuclear fusion industry [5]. Core Insights - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is experiencing a significant acceleration in bidding, with major contracts focusing on components such as magnets and power supplies. The total amount of contracts awarded has exceeded 1 billion RMB [3][4]. - Trump Media Technology has announced a final merger agreement with TAE Technologies, valued at over 6 billion USD, aimed at building large fusion power plants to meet energy demands driven by artificial intelligence [4][18]. - The U.S. Department of Energy has invested 87 million USD to promote the application of artificial intelligence in fusion energy research, indicating a strong governmental push towards technological advancements in this field [24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of December 15-19, the nuclear fusion index fell by 0.59%, underperforming the broader market by 0.62 percentage points [8][11]. Bidding and Contract Information - The report highlights that the bidding activity has significantly increased, with major contracts awarded primarily for magnets and power supplies. Notable companies involved in recent contracts include Aike Saibo and Qifan Cable [4][10]. Domestic and International News - Gyro Swin, an AI tool developed by a research team, has achieved a 1000-fold increase in the speed of 5D plasma modeling, reducing computation time from days to seconds [13]. - Thea Energy has unveiled the Helios concept design for a commercial fusion power station, which aims to simplify the manufacturing of complex magnetic fields necessary for plasma confinement [16][17]. Investment Dynamics - The merger between Trump Media Technology and TAE Technologies is expected to facilitate the construction of the first utility-scale fusion power plant, with an initial capacity of 50 MW and plans for future expansion [19][23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on key components such as magnets, power supplies, and other critical systems within the controllable nuclear fusion sector, identifying several key domestic suppliers [27].

Core Points - The establishment of the "Pax Silica" alliance aims to counter China's dominance in rare earth processing and advanced technology supply chains [1][3] - The alliance identifies processing, separation, and magnet manufacturing as critical bottlenecks, emphasizing the interconnection of mineral resources, manufacturing, and computing power in the AI era [1][4] - The success of the alliance hinges on binding financial mechanisms and long-term purchase agreements rather than solely relying on summit diplomacy [1][5] Group 1 - The initial participating countries, including Singapore, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Israel, are strategically positioned in key nodes of processing, defense technology, and logistics [3][4] - The alliance's focus on processing and logistics, rather than just mining, is a significant aspect that acknowledges the importance of separation, alloying, and magnet manufacturing [4][5] - The declaration reflects a shift in perspective, positioning rare earths as part of an economic security framework rather than merely a mining issue [6] Group 2 - The alliance's ability to become a "game changer" is uncertain, as the declaration alone cannot directly lead to the establishment of separation facilities or create a robust rare earth supply [5][6] - Historical experiences suggest that international cooperation in the AI era may not naturally align, especially given the deep commercial ties many member countries have with China [5][6] - If the alliance can transition from summit diplomacy to contract-supported infrastructure development, it could signify a pivotal shift in the global rare earth and critical minerals landscape [6]

Core Viewpoint - MP Materials has announced a joint venture with the U.S. Department of Defense and Saudi mining giant Maaden to establish a rare earth refining plant in Saudi Arabia, which is seen as a crucial step in reshaping the global rare earth supply chain [1] Group 1: Joint Venture Details - The joint venture will have MP Materials and the U.S. Department of Defense jointly holding 49% of the equity, while Maaden will hold at least 51% [1] - The U.S. Department of Defense will provide all funding through "non-recourse financing" [1] Group 2: Company Responsibilities - MP Materials will be responsible for technology contributions, including rare earth separation, refining processes, and expertise in global supply and market channels [1] Group 3: Future Plans - MP Materials is also in discussions with Saudi partners to support or collaborate on magnet manufacturing in the region, aiming to further enhance the downstream industry chain [1]

Core Insights - The company, Jinli Permanent Magnet, is revolutionizing the global magnetic material industry with its innovative "crystal boundary infiltration technology," which significantly reduces the use of expensive heavy rare earth elements by 50%-70% and lowers production costs by 20% compared to competitors [1][2] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 161.81% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting the direct value of its technological advancements [1] - Jinli Permanent Magnet's products exhibit strong performance, maintaining stability at high temperatures (up to 200°C) and achieving an intrinsic coercivity and magnetic energy product sum of 81, showcasing its competitive edge during fluctuations in rare earth prices [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 430 million yuan, a staggering increase of 381.94% compared to 89 million yuan in the same period of 2024, indicating robust core business profitability [1] - The revenue from the new energy vehicle sector accounted for nearly half of the company's total revenue, with sales increasing by 23.46% year-on-year [2] Market Position - Jinli Permanent Magnet is projected to hold approximately 28% of the global market share in magnetic material production and sales in 2024, maintaining its position as the global leader [2] - The company has established strong partnerships with top-tier clients such as Tesla, Vestas, Siemens, BYD, and Goldwind Technology, enhancing its competitive barriers across various sectors including wind energy, new energy vehicles, and robotics [2]

Trade & Agriculture - China to begin large-scale purchases of soybeans, sorghum, and other agricultural products from the US [1] - This decision is expected to greatly benefit US farmers [1] Energy - China agreed to start purchasing US energy, with a potential large-scale deal involving oil and natural gas from Alaska [1] - Discussions are underway regarding a potential energy agreement between the US and China [1] Critical Minerals & Fentanyl - China agreed to continue openly and freely supplying the US with rare earths, critical minerals, and magnets [1] - China committed to working closely with the US to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US [1] Economic Impact - Agreements reached are expected to bring prosperity and security to millions of Americans [1]

Core Viewpoint - The statements made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent regarding China's rare earth export controls have sparked a debate about the reality of these measures, with China emphasizing its actions as a refinement of its export control system [1][3]. Group 1: China's Rare Earth Export Controls - China's export control measures for rare earth elements were officially announced, with significant restrictions on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth items effective from April 5, 2025 [3]. - Recent announcements on October 9 included controls on foreign-manufactured magnets and materials containing 0.1% or more of Chinese rare earth elements, along with restrictions on rare earth mining and smelting technologies [3]. - As a result of these measures, China's rare earth exports fell to 4,000.3 tons in September 2025, a decrease of 30.9% month-over-month, marking the lowest level since February of the same year [3]. Group 2: U.S. Dependency on Chinese Rare Earths - The U.S. Geological Survey reported that 70% of U.S. rare earth material imports come from China, with nearly 100% of heavy rare earths essential for military applications sourced from China [5]. - The U.S. military relies on rare earths for 87% of its supply chains across 153 main battle equipment types, highlighting the critical nature of these materials [5][7]. - The complexity and pollution associated with rare earth purification processes have led to a significant reliance on China, which controls 85% of global refining capacity, making U.S. efforts to decouple from this dependency challenging and costly [7]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Strategic Decisions - China's export controls aim to prevent rare earths from being used for military purposes, contrasting with the U.S. as the largest global arms exporter that frequently utilizes rare earths in military production [9]. - The U.S. has attempted to politicize the rare earth issue, but this strategy has revealed its limitations, as China controls 70% of rare earth production and 92% of refining capacity globally [9]. - Prior to implementing these measures, China communicated its policy objectives to the U.S., EU, and Japan to reduce misunderstandings, while also promising to streamline compliance processes for civilian exports [11].

Core Insights - The article highlights the resilience of Chinese exports despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., suggesting that many Chinese products remain indispensable to the U.S. market, thereby enhancing China's bargaining power in upcoming trade negotiations [1][4]. Trade Performance - Chinese exports to the U.S. reached over $100 billion in Q3 2023, contributing to a trade surplus of nearly $67 billion, despite an overall decline in trade volume [1][4]. - In September, China's exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing economists' expectations, indicating a robust export performance [9][11]. Product-Specific Insights - Certain products, such as electric bicycles and refined copper, saw significant export growth, with electric bicycle exports valued at over $500 million and refined copper exports rising to $270 million [4][5]. - The export of smartphones, laptops, and computer components to the U.S. amounted to nearly $8 billion, despite being less than half of the previous year's figures [5]. Market Dynamics - The article notes that the U.S. tariffs have had limited impact on the import of certain Chinese goods due to their critical role in global supply chains, particularly in sectors like rare earths and electronics [1][4]. - Analysts suggest that the restructuring of supply chains to replace Chinese goods would take time, indicating a continued reliance on Chinese products [1][8]. Future Outlook - There is speculation that the U.S. and China may seek to ease trade tensions in the coming weeks, with both sides potentially making concessions [11]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for continued efforts to stabilize foreign trade amid a complex external environment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company Yuyuan New Materials (600206) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a growth of 101%-127% year-on-year, with net profit estimated between 230 million to 260 million yuan [4]. Financial Performance - The expected non-recurring net profit for the same period is projected to be between 155 million to 170 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62%-78% [4]. - As of October 10, the company's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 63.51 to 70.75 times, with a price-to-book ratio (LF) of about 4.7 times and a price-to-sales ratio (TTM) of around 2.14 times [4]. Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary Yuyuan Yijin is expected to report a net profit of 200 million to 220 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a sales revenue growth of over 50% for high value-added products [14]. - Another subsidiary, Yuyuan Rare Earth, is projected to achieve a net profit between 7 million to 12 million yuan, successfully turning losses into profits through quality improvement initiatives [14]. Non-Recurring Gains - The company anticipates a non-recurring gain of 107.57 million yuan from the transfer of lithium sulfide technology, which will positively impact the net profit attributable to shareholders by approximately 48.41 million yuan [14].

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Magnetics (300127.SZ) reported its semi-annual results for 2025, highlighting the current institutional ownership and changes in shareholding among various investors [1] Institutional Ownership - As of August 26, 2025, four institutional investors disclosed holdings in Galaxy Magnetics, totaling 98.1461 million shares, which represents 30.37% of the company's total share capital [1] - The institutional ownership decreased by 0.17 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Public Fund Holdings - Among public funds, there was an increase in holdings from one fund, specifically the Jiashi Zhongzheng Rare Earth Industry ETF, which saw a slight rise in its ownership percentage [1] Foreign Investment - One foreign fund, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, reduced its holdings by 0.27 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] - A new foreign institution, Barclays Bank PLC, disclosed its holdings for the first time in this period [1]