孙立坚（复旦大学金融研究中心主任） 消费是拉动经济增长的第一动力，服务消费作为消费升级的关键载体，正在成为中国经济增长的"结构 性变量"。当前，我国人均GDP已突破1.3万美元，居民消费需求从"物质型"向"服务型"加速转型，2025 年居民人均服务性消费支出占比达46.1%，服务零售额增速持续高于商品零售额。当前，加快培育服务 消费新增长点，推动服务消费提质扩容，既是顺应居民消费升级的必然选择，更是增强经济内生动力、 实现产业结构优化升级的战略突破口。本文立足"为何是它、怎么做"的逻辑主线，系统剖析服务消费成 为经济新动能的深层逻辑，直面现实堵点，把握多维机遇，提出打造现代化的服务消费供给体系，为激 活服务消费增长潜力、赋能经济高质量发展提供系统性思路。 三重逻辑：服务消费为何是关键 服务消费能成为中国经济高质量发展的新动能，是居民需求升级、经济结构转型、政策持续赋能三重逻 辑叠加的结果，兼具民生与经济双重属性，是推动发展与改善民生的重要抓手。 居民消费升级为服务消费筑牢需求根基，场景经济释放乘数效应。随着居民可支配收入增长，消费需求 从"满足基本生活"向"追求品质体验"转变，服务消费需求弹性持续提升。刚性领 ...

Core Viewpoint - Service consumption is becoming a structural variable in China's economic growth, driven by the transformation of consumer demand from material to service-oriented, with a projected increase in per capita service consumption expenditure to 46.1% by 2025 [2] Group 1: Reasons for Service Consumption as a Key Driver - The combination of resident demand upgrades, economic structure transformation, and continuous policy support creates a robust foundation for service consumption [3] - The aging population and the growing number of young children in China are driving demand for essential services like elderly care and childcare, with the domestic housekeeping industry expected to create over 30 million jobs by 2024 [3] - Experience-based consumption in sectors like tourism and health is expected to generate significant economic activity, with leisure tourism revenue projected to reach 450 billion yuan during the 2025-2026 winter season [3] Group 2: Economic Structure and Trust - The service sector has become the largest industry in China's economy, with its unique non-standard nature influencing consumer behavior and market dynamics [4] - Establishing a unified service standard and a reliable credit system is essential for enhancing service quality and consumer trust, which are critical for unlocking potential demand [4] Group 3: Policy Support and Institutional Framework - The policy framework has shifted from merely stimulating demand to a dual focus on supply and demand collaboration, with significant improvements in areas like medical and educational market access [4] - By 2025, the sales of tax refund goods for outbound travelers are expected to increase by 95.9%, indicating a growing emphasis on enhancing consumer infrastructure [4] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite rapid growth in service consumption, issues such as structural mismatches in supply and demand, quality concerns, and consumer confidence need to be addressed [5] - The integration of AI and big data in service consumption can help overcome challenges related to non-standard services, enhancing precision and efficiency in service delivery [5] Group 5: Modernization of Supply System - The modernization of the service supply system is crucial, focusing on making services affordable, accessible, and trustworthy [6] - Emphasizing the development of a professional workforce in essential service areas like elderly care and childcare is vital for meeting growing demand [6] Group 6: Institutional Improvement and Market Integration - The establishment of a unified national market can reduce transaction costs and facilitate the replication of quality services across regions [7] - Continuous efforts to optimize the business environment for private enterprises and enhance service standards are necessary for fostering a safe and fair consumption environment [7] Group 7: Open Cooperation and Trade Upgrading - Promoting high standards in service trade and enhancing cross-border payment systems can lower costs and improve efficiency in service consumption [8] - The focus on integrating regional economies and enhancing service resource collaboration can lead to improved supply efficiency and quality [8] Group 8: Focus on Livelihood and Essential Services - The aging population is shifting service consumption from optional to essential, creating stable demand for healthcare and related services [9] - Strengthening social security systems and expanding coverage can enhance consumer confidence and support service consumption growth [9] Group 9: Long-term Economic Growth - Service consumption is positioned as a new engine for economic growth, with significant potential for expansion and development [10] - The successful transformation of service consumption into a long-term economic driver depends on building a modern supply system that ensures quality, trust, and accessibility [10]

Group 1 - The event "Ancient Ferry Transmits Love · Beneficial Market" successfully integrated cultural, commercial, and public welfare elements, attracting nearly a thousand participants and creating a new path for the dissemination of the Red Cross spirit [1] - The event featured eight thematic sections, including emergency rescue education, intangible cultural heritage experiences, and health services, embedding public welfare into cultural tourism scenarios [1] - The "Life Relay" experience area, managed by the local police, became a focal point where CPR and AED operation skills were taught through a combination of theory and practice [1] Group 2 - The event broke the traditional one-way communication model of public welfare activities by utilizing a dual approach of "experiential scenarios + consumer support," allowing visitors to subtly receive humanitarian education while enjoying ancient ferry culture [2]