丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨零售业 [Table_Title] 黄金珠宝系列专题之十六：金价大幅上涨后，如 何看企业盈利分化？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们认为，产品的不断迭代升级，夯实了审美心智和消费品位，而金价大幅上涨，则加速了行 业的饰品化和品牌化进程，因此，强设计感&高毛利的产品占比提升、以及直营模式为主的企 业，在新的产品周期和金价周期共振的阶段，或具备更大的利润弹性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490520080019 SAC：S0490525080008 SFC：BUV258 李锦 罗祎 张彦淳 %% %% 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 黄金珠宝系列专题之十六：金价大幅上涨后，如 2] 何看企业盈利分化？ [Table_Summary2] 复盘：渠道优化提质，需求具备韧性 整体来看，2025 年国内金价同比上涨 43%，受制于消费预算和观望情绪，黄金饰品消费量同 比下滑 32%，全年限额以上黄金珠宝社零同比增长 12.8 ...

Summary of LUK FOOK Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: LUK FOOK Holdings - **Industry**: Jewelry Retail Key Points and Arguments Impact of VAT Reform - The VAT reform in mainland China has benefited LUK FOOK, as small gold shops faced significant challenges, leading consumers to shift towards branded gold shops for weight-based gold purchases, thus boosting sales for LUK FOOK [2][4] - Despite the challenges, the fixed-price gold segment remains the primary growth driver, with expectations of continued popularity [4] Sales Performance - In October and November 2025, LUK FOOK experienced strong performance in the mainland market, with fixed-price gold sales more than doubling in October due to a price increase announcement [3] - November data showed that weight-based gold sales outperformed fixed-price gold, indicating that the price adjustments did not negatively impact sales significantly [10] Pricing Strategy - The company has raised prices by 7%-8% due to the VAT reform, which is expected to reflect positively in gross margins in the second half of the fiscal year [7][15] Market Expansion Plans - LUK FOOK aims to expand its overseas presence, targeting the opening of 50 new stores in three years, with eight new stores already added by mid-2025, including a new store in Vietnam [8] - The overseas market is performing well and is a key focus for future growth [8] Local Market Strategies - To counteract the decline in tourist spending in Hong Kong, LUK FOOK plans to enhance local consumer marketing strategies [6] - The company is focusing on promoting local consumption to mitigate the impact of reduced mainland tourist spending [6] Performance in Duty-Free Shops - The Hainan duty-free shops have shown exceptional performance, with sales in October and November increasing by approximately 70% year-on-year, particularly in weight-based gold products [12] Challenges and Adjustments - The mainland market saw a net reduction of 179 stores in the first half of 2025, with an expected total of over 200 closures for the year, but a return to net growth is anticipated in fiscal year 2026 [4][18] - The company is also addressing the increased costs from the VAT reform by adjusting pricing strategies to maintain competitiveness [9] Product Performance - The ice diamond series currently accounts for about 4% of total revenue, with growth seen in gold-inlaid diamond products, while 18K gold-inlaid diamond products are experiencing a decline [13] Profitability Outlook - Despite a rise in gold prices in 2025, the increase in gross margin is not expected to match that of 2024. However, the company anticipates that gross margins in the second half of the fiscal year may exceed those in the first half [15][23] Consumer Behavior Insights - The company has noted that consumer sensitivity to price increases is manageable, as evidenced by the performance of weight-based gold sales post-price adjustment [10] Regional Market Differences - The Macau market benefits from a price advantage of over 20% compared to mainland China, attracting more tourists, while Hong Kong's performance is more subdued due to a lower proportion of mainland tourist spending [11] Future Expectations - The company expects strong sales performance during the upcoming Chinese New Year, particularly if Valentine's Day coincides with the holiday, which could further boost sales [24]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the fashion jewelry industry, specifically focusing on the performance of a jewelry brand in July 2025, highlighting significant sales growth and trends in customer behavior related to gold products. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sales Growth**: Overall sales in July 2025 increased by 59% year-on-year, with weight-based gold sales growing by 68% and fixed-price gold sales increasing by 64%. In contrast, embedded and plain gold products saw declines of 24% and 23% respectively [1][3][4]. - **Same-Store Sales**: The improvement in same-store sales is attributed to customers adapting to high gold prices and an increase in the old-for-new exchange ratio from over 30% last year to over 40% this year. This exchange program has boosted front-end revenue, although it has a limited impact on brand owners [1][5][6]. - **Customer Behavior**: Customers opting for the old-for-new exchange are primarily purchasing weight-based gold, indicating a trend where higher purchasing power customers prefer larger items [1][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for August 2025, with expectations for improved performance in the East China region ahead of the Qixi Festival [1][11]. Additional Important Content - **Store Expansion**: As of the end of July 2025, the company opened 38 new stores, with plans to accelerate store openings in the second half of the year. The annual sales target has been adjusted to a 25% increase compared to 2024, with a 10%-20% increase in the second half [4][15][17]. - **Promotional Strategies**: For the Qixi Festival, the company plans to promote cultural products from the Palace Museum and collaborate with various IPs, while also considering adjusting discount strategies to remain competitive [1][13][14]. - **Old-for-New Policy Impact**: While the old-for-new policy reduces gross margins for franchisees, it does not necessarily decrease their net profits due to reduced VAT burdens from purchasing new goods with recovered old gold [6][7]. - **Sales Targets for Qixi Festival**: The company aims to sell between 6,000 to 8,000 pieces of targeted products at a unit price of 2,400 yuan during the Qixi Festival [19]. - **Autumn Order Meeting**: The company is optimistic about the upcoming autumn order meeting, targeting 2.8 billion yuan in order revenue, with upgraded operational methods to enhance order completion rates [21][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the company's performance, market strategies, and future outlook within the fashion jewelry industry.

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's FY25 performance exceeded expectations due to effective strategic adjustments, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the industry, highlighting the value of leading companies [2][4]. Financial Performance - FY25 revenue was HKD 89.66 billion, down 17.5% year-on-year, with a decline of 18.4% in the first half and 15.1% in the second half [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.92 billion, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, with the first half down 44.4% and the second half up 73.8% [3]. - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.52 per share, with a payout ratio of 87.8% [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by region showed declines: Mainland direct sales down 18.2%, franchise sales down 15.0%, and Hong Kong/Macau down 20.6% [2]. - The number of stores in Mainland China decreased by 896 to 6,274, with same-store sales down 19.4% for direct stores and 13.9% for franchises [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from gold by weight decreased by 29.4%, while revenue from priced gold increased by 105.5%, and jewelry embedding revenue fell by 13.8% [2]. - Priced gold products accounted for 18.1% of gold product revenue, with significant sales from the Heritage and Palace Museum series exceeding HKD 4 billion each [2]. Margin and Profitability - Gross margin improved to 29.5%, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and product transformation strategies [3]. - Operating profit margin was 16.4%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Trends - Since April 2024, gold prices have been rising, with consumer confidence in gold's long-term value increasing due to international conflicts [3]. - The retail performance in April and May 2025 showed a slight decline of 1.7% year-on-year, with Mainland China down 2.9% and Hong Kong/Macau up 6.3% [3]. Management Guidance - Management is cautiously optimistic, projecting mid-single-digit growth for same-store sales in FY26 for both Mainland and Hong Kong/Macau [4]. - Expected gross margin decline of 0.8-1.2 percentage points due to last year's gold price benefits, but a steady increase is anticipated when excluding gold price impacts [4]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focused on brand and product-driven growth, with plans to open 20 new image stores and launch a high-end jewelry series [4]. - Projected net profits for FY26 and FY27 are HKD 8.39 billion and HKD 9.28 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 42% and 11% respectively [4].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Gold and Jewelry Industry Industry Overview - The conference discusses the gold and jewelry industry, focusing on major brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and Chao Hong Ji, along with their sales performance and strategic adjustments for 2024 and 2025 [1][2][7]. Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Growth**: In the first half of 2024, Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang experienced an overall growth of approximately 5 percentage points, while Chao Hong Ji showed a significant growth of around 30% [1][2]. - **Impact of Gold Prices**: Excluding the impact of rising gold prices (approximately 10%), sales volumes for most brands have declined, with only Chao Hong Ji maintaining stable growth [1][6]. - **Store Adjustments**: Chow Tai Fook plans to maintain its current number of stores without closures, while Chao Hong Ji intends to close underperforming stores to enhance overall performance, targeting a growth rate of 25% for the year [1][7]. - **Store Opening Costs**: New stores for Changhong Jiahua typically range from 60 to 80 square meters, with initial investments of approximately 7 to 9 million yuan, requiring 8 to 10 kilograms of gold for inventory [1][9]. - **Profit Margins**: The profit margins for different gold products are as follows: weight-based gold has a profit margin of about 5% to 8%, while fixed-price gold has a profit margin of around 15% [1][17]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Adjustments**: Major brands like Chow Tai Fook are undergoing significant nationwide adjustments, with plans to close 5,000 to 6,000 stores to streamline operations [1][11]. - **Consumer Trends**: The consumer base for Changhong Jiahua includes both general consumers overlapping with brands like Chow Tai Fook and high-end customers interested in traditional craftsmanship [22]. - **Digital Transformation**: The industry has been forced to undergo digital transformation due to the pandemic, focusing on online product displays and digital management systems [29][30]. - **Tax Implications**: The gold consumption tax has severely impacted the jewelry industry, particularly affecting non-compliant franchisees who face significant tax liabilities [4][41]. - **Market Competition**: Non-leading brands are also showing competitive potential, with some achieving sales comparable to leading brands like Chow Tai Fook [42]. Conclusion The gold and jewelry industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by fluctuating gold prices, strategic store adjustments, and evolving consumer preferences. Major brands are focusing on maintaining profitability while adapting to market challenges and opportunities for growth.