Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on gold, announced by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, aims to differentiate between investment and non-investment demand for gold, leading to significant market reactions and price fluctuations in gold products [2][5]. Market Reactions - The gold market has shown a clear division, with investment gold bars experiencing price increases and some products being taken off the shelves. For instance, the price of investment gold bars at certain stores has risen by over 100 yuan per gram compared to pre-policy levels [2][3]. - Different brands exhibit varied strategies; for example, Chow Tai Fook maintains its online prices while others like Century Origin have suspended sales of investment gold bars entirely [3]. Price Adjustments - The price of diamond-studded gold jewelry is also being adjusted due to rising raw material costs and the new tax policy. Some brands are temporarily halting sales to reassess pricing structures [4]. - The overall increase in gold prices has a cascading effect on related products, with some brands reporting price hikes of 5%-8% for gold jewelry [7]. Consumer Impact - The new tax policy has led to increased costs for consumers, particularly for those purchasing investment gold through non-exchange channels, where additional VAT burdens are passed on to buyers [6][7]. - Consumers are advised to consider purchasing gold through banks or exchange platforms to benefit from lower tax burdens and better pricing [7]. Tax Policy Details - The new tax policy specifies that from now until the end of 2027, transactions involving standard gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange will be exempt from VAT, which is expected to influence market dynamics significantly [8]. - The policy also differentiates between investment and non-investment gold, applying different VAT treatments based on the nature of the transaction [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in tax rates for gold and diamonds are expected to directly impact the pricing of jewelry products promoted by leading brands, with a notable increase in consumer costs anticipated due to these changes [1][3]. Tax Policy Changes - The announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation regarding gold tax policies was released on October 29, effective from November 1, 2023, until December 31, 2027, replacing previous tax regulations [1]. - The new tax policy categorizes gold usage into investment and non-investment types, with more significant tax adjustments for non-investment purposes [3]. Impact on Retail and Consumer Behavior - Retailers, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold, have already adjusted prices multiple times this year, and the uncertainty surrounding further price changes due to the new tax policies adds pressure on brands [4]. - The introduction of a 7% tax on processed gold products, including jewelry, is expected to increase costs for consumers, although immediate price changes were not observed on the first day of the new policy [3][6]. Market Dynamics and Consumer Trends - The trend towards fixed-price gold products, particularly those featuring diamond inlays, has shown strong revenue potential, as evidenced by Chow Tai Fook's recent financial performance [4]. - The adjustment in tax policies may lead to a shift in consumer purchasing behavior, with potential growth in "goldsmith" shops that offer processing services for investment-grade gold purchased directly from banks [8]. Industry Implications - The new tax structure is likely to affect various segments of the gold supply chain, particularly wholesalers and retail stores, as they may be compelled to raise prices in response to increased costs [6][8]. - The retention of tax incentives for investment-grade gold at trading exchanges is expected to keep domestic gold prices aligned with international rates, minimizing extreme price fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in tax rates for gold and diamonds are expected to directly impact the pricing strategies of leading jewelry brands, particularly those promoting diamond-studded gold products. The announcement of these tax changes has created a sense of urgency and uncertainty in the market, especially with the sudden implementation of the gold tax policy on November 1, 2023 [3][7]. Tax Policy Changes - The announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation regarding gold tax policies was released on October 29, 2023, and is effective from November 1, 2023, until December 31, 2027. This announcement also repeals previous tax regulations from 2002 and 2008 [3][7]. - The new tax policy categorizes gold usage into investment and non-investment types, with more significant tax adjustments for non-investment purposes. Non-investment gold transactions will be exempt from VAT and can issue ordinary invoices, allowing buyers to deduct 6% of the invoice amount as input tax [7][15]. Market Reactions - Initial observations from jewelry stores in South China on the day of the new tax policy's implementation indicated that the price adjustments had not yet been reflected in the products available for sale [8][10]. - Leading jewelry brands, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold, have been pushing fixed-price gold products, which are not directly tied to fluctuating gold prices. These products have shown strong revenue-generating capabilities, as evidenced by Chow Tai Fook's recent financial performance [8][10]. Industry Impact - The new tax policy is expected to have a cascading effect on the entire gold industry supply chain, particularly affecting wholesalers and retail stores. The increase in tax burden on raw materials will likely compel retailers to raise prices [10][12]. - The potential rise of gold processing shops is anticipated, as consumers may seek to purchase investment-grade gold directly from banks and then process it independently, circumventing the new tax implications [12][15]. Consumer Behavior - Despite the uncertainty surrounding price adjustments due to the new tax policies, consumer interest in gold-studded products remains high, with significant foot traffic observed in stores on the policy's implementation day [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of gold and diamond tax rates is expected to increase the cost of purchasing jewelry, impacting leading brands' pricing strategies in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The announcement regarding the adjustment of gold tax rates was made on October 29, effective from November 1, 2023, until December 31, 2027, which has led to the cancellation of previous tax policies [1]. - The diamond tax rate adjustment was announced earlier, allowing the market to prepare, while the gold tax policy change was more sudden [1]. Group 2: Impact on Jewelry Brands - Leading jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold have been pushing fixed-price gold products, which are not directly tied to fluctuating gold prices, indicating a shift in pricing strategy [2]. - The recent tax adjustments have created pressure on brands, although it remains unclear if they will raise prices in response to the new tax policies [2]. Group 3: Industry Chain Effects - The impact of the new gold tax policy is anticipated to be most significant on the B-end of the gold industry chain, including suppliers, wholesalers, and retail stores [3].

有店员表示不知是否还调价，但很有压力 黄金与钻石税率的调整，或会直接影响头部品牌们近年力推的钻饰金器售价。 如果说取消钻石税收优惠政策的公告提早了十余天发布，让市场有所准备。那提早三天发布的黄金税收政策的调整，来得突然。 10月29日，《财政部 税务总局关于黄金有关税收政策的公告》（下称"公告"）发布，执行时间从今年11月1日至2027年12月31日。与之对应的是，《财政部 国家税务总局关于黄金税收政策问题的通知》（财税〔2002〕142号）第二、四、五条及《财政部 国家税务总局关于黄金期货交易有关税收政策的通知》 （财税〔2008〕5号）废止。 广东南方黄金市场研究院市场研究中心主任宋蒋圳在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，消费者购买首饰成本上升已经是必然趋势了。 这 TFG t 10 les P ut 龙 15 II op CHI 3 ll II ll ll II II il ll ll 11 ll la 11 | I u 0 n 11月1日华南地区一老铺黄金门店营业情况 有金又有钻的产品或受更大影响 10月17日，《财政部 海关总署 税务总局关于调整风力发电等增值税政策的公告》发布，自11月1日起，钻石税收优 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold jewelry industry is facing significant challenges due to rising gold prices, leading to a decline in sales for most companies, while Lao Pu Gold stands out with strong performance [1][5]. Company Performance - Chow Tai Fook's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 was HKD 89.656 billion, a decrease of 17.5% year-on-year, primarily due to external macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer spending [1][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.916 billion, down 8.98% year-on-year, with operational profit increasing by 9.8% to HKD 14.746 billion after excluding losses from gold lending contracts [1][4]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from gold jewelry products increased by 105.5% to HKD 12.782 billion, while weight-based gold jewelry revenue fell by 29.4% to HKD 57.955 billion [2]. - Diamond-studded products saw a decline of 13.8%, but gold-studded diamond products experienced over 100% growth [2]. Store Operations - Chow Tai Fook closed 905 stores, ending the fiscal year with 6,644 stores, while improving average monthly sales per store to over HKD 10 million from HKD 9 million [4][11]. - The gross margin for the fiscal year was 29.5%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin products and rising gold prices [4]. Market Trends - The overall gold jewelry industry is underperforming, with A-share companies reporting a revenue decline of 4.73% to CNY 171.91 billion and a net profit drop of 17.75% to CNY 4.907 billion [5][6]. - In Q1 2025, the industry saw a revenue decline of 25.22%, but some companies showed significant profit improvements, indicating a recovery in overall profitability [5][6]. Strategic Transformation - Chow Tai Fook is shifting its strategy from rapid store expansion to enhancing store quality and product differentiation, launching new series that cater to diverse consumer preferences [11][12]. - The company is also focusing on high-end product offerings and collaborations with popular IPs to attract a broader customer base [11]. Financial Strategies - Following a high dividend announcement, Chow Tai Fook issued a 5-year convertible bond to raise HKD 8.8 billion for business development and store upgrades, despite a decline in cash flow [12]. - The market reacted negatively to the financing move, with Chow Tai Fook's stock price dropping by 7.29% [12]. Conclusion - The fiscal year 2025 is seen as a critical period for Chow Tai Fook, as it attempts to transform its business model by focusing on high-margin products and strategic partnerships, while navigating the challenges posed by rising gold prices and market saturation [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 was HKD 89.556 billion, a decrease of 17.75% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.916 billion, down 8.98% year-on-year. The decline in revenue was primarily due to high gold prices suppressing end demand and losses from gold lending contracts. However, after excluding the impact of fair value changes in gold lending, the operating profit was HKD 14.746 billion, reflecting a strong operational resilience with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1][9]. - The retail value decline narrowed to 1.7% year-on-year in April-May, compared to a 11.6% decline in January-March. Notably, same-store sales of gold jewelry and products in mainland China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) achieved a positive growth of 0.9% [1][9]. - The company has seen a significant increase in high-margin priced products, with revenue from priced gold jewelry products growing by 105.5% year-on-year to HKD 12.782 billion, accounting for 14.6% of total retail sales, an increase of 8.8 percentage points [2][11]. - The average monthly sales per store exceeded HKD 10 million, up from HKD 9 million the previous year, despite a net closure of 905 stores, bringing the total to 6,644 stores [2][11]. Financial Summary - The company's gross margin for fiscal year 2025 was 29.5%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a higher proportion of high-margin priced products and rising gold prices. The sales expense ratio was 9.7%, up 0.95 percentage points, influenced by declining revenue and increased marketing expenses [2][15]. - The company forecasts net profits for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 to be HKD 7.062 billion and HKD 8.104 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for fiscal year 2028 at HKD 9.049 billion, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18.3, 16, and 14.3 times [3][19].