摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，周大福中期业绩符合预期。公司将毛利率指引由28.3至28.7%，上调至31 至32%，调整幅度高过该行预期。若计及较高的对冲损失，最新指引意味着2026财年净利润将按年增长 44至55%，至85至91亿港元，即下半财年按年增长75至90%。 该行指，虽然近期销售强劲，公司仍维持原有收入指引，管理层坦言对收入指引持谨慎态度，因仍在观 察增值税改革后的需求趋势，后续将相应更新指引。目前的需求趋势已好过管理层预期，公司对竞争格 局充满信心，认为税改将有利周大福等龙头品牌。 该行将2026财年每股盈利预测上调7%，净利润预测上调6%至87.5亿港元；2027至2028年每股盈利预测 则上调2%，因预期金价会大致维持于目前水平，加上宏观环境将逐步复苏；维持目标价19港元及"增 持"评级。 ...

报告提到，10月1日至11月18日期间，内地自营门店的同店销售增长达48.7%，加盟店增长38.8%，香港 及澳门市场亦增长18.3%。 即使增值税改革后产品加价，11月需求仍保持中双位数增长。该行指，虽然 近期销售强劲，公司仍维持原有收入指引，管理层坦言对收入指引持谨慎态度，因仍在观察增值税改革 后的需求趋势，后续将相应更新指引。目前的需求趋势已好过管理层预期，公司对竞争格局充满信心， 认为税改将有利周大福等龙头品牌。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，将周大福(01929)2026财年每股盈利预测上调7%，净利润 预测上调6%至87.5亿元;2027至2028年每股盈利预测则上调2%，因预期金价会大致维持于目前水平，加 上宏观环境将逐步复苏。维持目标价19港元及"增持"评级。 该行指，周大福中期业绩符合预期。公司将毛利率指引由28.3至28.7%，上调至31至32%，调整幅度高 过该行预期。若计及较高的对冲损失，最新指引意味着2026财年净利润将同比增长44至55%，至85至91 亿元，即下半财年同比增长75至90%。 ...

报告提到，10月1日至11月18日期间，内地自营门店的同店销售增长达48.7%，加盟店增长38.8%，香港 及澳门市场亦增长18.3%。即使增值税改革后产品加价，11月需求仍保持中双位数增长。该行指，虽然 近期销售强劲，公司仍维持原有收入指引，管理层坦言对收入指引持谨慎态度，因仍在观察增值税改革 后的需求趋势，后续将相应更新指引。目前的需求趋势已好过管理层预期，公司对竞争格局充满信心， 认为税改将有利周大福等龙头品牌。 该行指，周大福中期业绩符合预期。公司将毛利率指引由28.3至28.7%，上调至31至32%，调整幅度高 过该行预期。若计及较高的对冲损失，最新指引意味着2026财年净利润将同比增长44至55%，至85至91 亿元，即下半财年同比增长75至90%。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，将周大福(01929)2026财年每股盈利预测上调7%，净利润预测上调6%至87.5亿 元;2027至2028年每股盈利预测则上调2%，因预期金价会大致维持于目前水平，加上宏观环境将逐步复 苏。维持目标价19港元及"增持"评级。 ...

Core Points - The article discusses tax and fee incentives aimed at supporting the development of small and micro enterprises as well as individual businesses [2][3]. Group 1: Tax Incentives - Taxpayers who do not reach the VAT threshold are exempt from VAT [2]. - The VAT threshold is set as follows: for sales of goods, the monthly sales amount is between 5,000 to 20,000 yuan; for taxable services, the monthly sales amount is also between 5,000 to 20,000 yuan; for single-instance taxation, the sales amount per instance (day) is between 300 to 500 yuan [2]. - Local financial departments and tax authorities can determine the applicable threshold based on actual conditions within the specified range [2]. Group 2: Eligibility and Application - The VAT threshold applies only to individuals, including individual businesses and other personal entities [3]. - Individuals can handle invoice issuance and tax payment through online and offline channels such as the electronic tax bureau and tax service halls [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the framework and requirements for a new round of fiscal and tax system reform in China, emphasizing the need to address current fiscal challenges and improve the fiscal structure to support a high-level socialist market economy [2][3]. Group 1: Increasing Fiscal Revenue - The proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP has decreased from 28%-29% in 2018 to 26% in 2023, with tax revenue at only 14.4% of GDP [4][6]. - The government fund budget revenue for 2023 is projected at 7 trillion yuan, primarily from land transfer income, which has seen a significant decline in net income due to rising costs and a sluggish real estate market [5][6]. - The current fiscal revenue ratio is lower than that of comparable countries, necessitating an increase in fiscal revenue to meet future public service demands, especially with an aging population [6][7]. Group 2: Enhancing Local Tax Systems - Local fiscal revenue heavily relies on shared taxes, with limited independent tax sources, necessitating reforms to increase local financial autonomy and expand tax sources [12][13]. - The article suggests that the reform should focus on optimizing the sharing ratio of shared taxes and enhancing local tax management authority [13][14]. Group 3: Central-Local Fiscal Relations - The current fiscal relationship between central and local governments is imbalanced, with local governments relying heavily on transfers from the central government, which is unsustainable [18][19]. - The article highlights the need for a clearer delineation of responsibilities between central and local governments to improve fiscal efficiency and governance [20][21]. Group 4: Policy Framework and Implementation - The article advocates for a comprehensive fiscal policy framework that includes increasing the fiscal deficit rate to support local governments and enhance public service provision [25][26]. - It emphasizes the importance of addressing the dual structure of urban and rural economies to promote balanced development and improve overall fiscal health [28][29]. Group 5: VAT System Improvement - The current VAT system needs reform to adapt to new economic realities, including the need for timely tax refunds to support businesses and stimulate economic activity [29][30]. - The article suggests adjusting the VAT collection mechanism to ensure it aligns with modern economic practices and supports innovation in various industries [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that effective tax policies should not merely focus on maximizing revenue but should be designed to enable businesses to thrive, thereby fostering economic growth and sustainable tax revenue generation [2][41]. Group 1: Overview of VAT Reform - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration has solicited public opinions on the draft implementation regulations for the VAT law [3]. - VAT is a significant tax in China, projected to generate 6.57 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 38% of the total national tax revenue [4]. - The draft regulations consist of 57 articles covering key areas such as tax rate application, tax amount calculation, and tax incentives [7]. Group 2: Reasons for Reform - The reform is driven by the need to address multiple practical issues and development demands, including the complexity of the current VAT system established since 1994 [10][9]. - The new regulations aim to clarify who pays taxes, how much, and how deductions are managed, thereby reducing compliance costs for businesses [13][14]. Group 3: Key Changes in the Draft Regulations - Small-scale taxpayers can only upgrade their status and cannot revert to small-scale once classified as general taxpayers, closing loopholes for tax avoidance [15][16]. - The draft clarifies situations where input tax cannot be deducted, such as for personal consumption expenses, which simplifies accounting for businesses [19]. - The regulations tighten the rules around invoicing, preventing businesses from issuing false invoices to help clients save on taxes [20]. Group 4: Impact on Industries - Manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce are expected to benefit significantly from the new regulations, particularly due to clearer definitions of "overseas consumption" [25][28]. - The new rules allow for full deduction of input tax for equipment purchases under 5 million yuan, which can free up capital for businesses to invest in upgrades and R&D [24][26]. - The financial and real estate sectors will face stricter regulations regarding tax deductions, prompting businesses to be more vigilant about their expenses [34][36]. Group 5: New Opportunities and Challenges - The regulations may lead to the emergence of new professions, such as cross-border tax architects and digital tax management consultants, as businesses adapt to the new tax landscape [37]. - Companies may explore innovative strategies to optimize their tax burdens, such as forming cooperatives to benefit from tax exemptions [38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of tax reform during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on enhancing local fiscal autonomy and addressing systemic issues that limit local government initiatives [1][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen significant progress in tax reforms, particularly in areas like value-added tax and tax administration, while some reforms, such as personal income tax and real estate tax legislation, have faced delays due to various challenges [2][5][7] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" tax reforms will prioritize resolving local fiscal difficulties, implementing national strategic tasks, and establishing a more comprehensive modern tax system [3][10] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines seven main tax reform tasks, including optimizing the tax structure, improving the direct tax system, and advancing real estate tax legislation [4] - The progress of tax reforms has varied, with value-added tax reforms advancing rapidly due to prior experience and significant economic impact, while real estate tax legislation has been slower due to its complexity and societal sensitivity [5][6][7] - Future tax reforms will focus on enhancing fiscal revenue collection, with an emphasis on local government financial autonomy and the need for a stable macro tax burden to mitigate risks [11][12] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will continue some reforms from the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as moving consumption tax collection to local levels and refining value-added tax policies [10] - Individual income tax reforms are expected to maintain the current exemption threshold while gradually expanding the income base and unifying taxation for different income types [13][14] - The overall pace of tax reforms will depend on social consensus, the difficulty of interest adjustments, and the maturity of supporting mechanisms, reflecting a pragmatic approach to reform [9]