Group 1: Company Overview - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929), predicting a net profit of HKD 8.064 billion, HKD 10.089 billion, and HKD 11.006 billion for the fiscal years 2026-2028, with a target price of HKD 19.68 based on a 24x PE for FY26 [2][4] - Chow Tai Fook's retail value for FY26Q2 increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with mainland China showing a 3.0% increase and Hong Kong, Macau, and others showing an 11.4% increase [3][4] - The same-store sales turned positive across the board, with mainland China same-store sales up by 7.6%, and gold jewelry sales up by 10.6% with an average price of HKD 7,900, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase [4][5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report highlights the strong online growth for Chow Tai Fook, with e-commerce retail in mainland China increasing by 28.1% year-on-year, accounting for 6.7% of retail value and 15.5% of sales volume [5] - The report notes that the jewelry retail market is experiencing a structural shift, with the proportion of high-margin priced gold products in mainland China reaching 29.9%, up by 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, which is expected to enhance gross margins [4][5] - The gaming industry, represented by NetDragon (0777), is also highlighted for its stable growth, with projected revenues of CNY 48.6 billion, CNY 53.1 billion, and CNY 58.4 billion for 2025-2027, driven by strong IP operations and AI integration [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that Chow Tai Fook's retail revenue for the second fiscal quarter of 2026 (July-September) increased by 4.1% year-on-year, driven by strong sales of gold and gold-inlaid products, alongside a low base effect [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales growth turned positive across different regions and product categories during the quarter [1] - Retail revenue growth in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets was 3% and 11.4% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming peak season for gold and jewelry consumption in the second half of the fiscal year [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates a continued improvement in Chow Tai Fook's fundamentals, with a projected decrease in net store closure rates by fiscal year 2027 [1] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Huatai Securities raised its net profit forecasts for Chow Tai Fook for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 6%, 7%, and 7%, reaching HKD 81.2 billion, HKD 89.1 billion, and HKD 99 billion, respectively [1] - The target price for Chow Tai Fook was increased from HKD 16 to HKD 19.4, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a price-to-earnings ratio of 24 times for fiscal year 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [21]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's retail sales increased by 4.1% year-on-year in 2QFY26, with Mainland China growing by 3.0% and Hong Kong/Macau by 11.4% [2][8]. - Same-store sales returned to positive growth across all channels, driven primarily by higher average selling prices (ASP), despite a decline in sales volume [9][10]. - Priced gold products emerged as a key growth driver, with retail sales surging by 43.7% year-on-year, significantly enhancing the company's gross margin and profitability [10][11]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its retail network, closing approximately 300 stores in Mainland China while opening new high-efficiency stores in prime locations [12]. - Management anticipates FY26 to be a year of profitability recovery, with gross margin and operating profit expected to exceed previous guidance due to structural improvements and a higher contribution from priced gold [13]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Group retail sales for 2QFY26 increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with same-store sales in Mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau showing positive growth [2][9]. - The average selling price in Mainland China rose from HK$6,400 to HK$7,900, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it increased from HK$9,400 to HK$11,700 [9]. Product Mix and Growth Drivers - Priced gold became the core growth engine, with same-store sales of gold jewelry in Mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau increasing by 10.6% and 10.4%, respectively [10]. - The proportion of priced gold products in Mainland China rose to 29.9%, with management indicating potential for further increases based on market acceptance [10][11]. Brand and Marketing Strategy - The company is enhancing brand recognition through iconic collections and collaborations with popular IPs, targeting younger consumers [11]. - New product lines, such as the "Tian Yuan Di Fang" collection, integrate traditional Chinese elements to attract a broader audience [11]. Channel Optimization - Chow Tai Fook is optimizing its retail network by closing underperforming stores and opening new concept stores with higher sales potential [12]. - E-commerce sales grew by 28.1% year-on-year, contributing significantly to overall retail performance [12]. Financial Outlook - Management expects improved gross margin and operating profit for 1HFY26, driven by a favorable product mix and effective cost management [13]. - The company is preparing for a strong second half of FY26, coinciding with wedding and festive seasons, which may further boost demand [13].

Group 1 - The overall market environment shows signs of improvement, with expectations for a recovery following last week's decline [2] - The technology sector is experiencing significant activity, with the upcoming IPO of Mu Xi Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - Domestic retail sales for Chow Tai Fook increased by 4.1% year-on-year in Q3, with a notable recovery in same-store sales in mainland China [3][4] Group 2 - Chow Tai Fook's online retail performance was strong, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% in Q3 [4] - The company plans to maintain a pricing strategy for gold products, aiming for a 20%-25% share of total sales [5] - The express delivery industry is seeing improved operating conditions, with significant increases in single-ticket revenue for major companies in September [6][7] Group 3 - The express delivery sector is transitioning from price wars to orderly competition, with price increases expected to enhance profitability [8] - SF Express maintained high growth in volume, while other companies like Yunda and Zhongtong are also benefiting from price adjustments [8] - The Hang Seng Index is showing potential for a rebound, supported by ongoing US-China trade negotiations and expectations of interest rate cuts [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" based on the analysis of its performance and market conditions [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a retail value growth of 13% year-on-year for FY26Q1, with same-store sales increasing by 5%. The proportion of retail value from priced gold increased from 12% to 17% compared to the same period last year, with same-store growth of 73% [1][2]. - The recovery in sales growth in mainland China reached nearly 20%, with retail value growth of 14% in FY26Q1. Self-operated stores outperformed brand stores, with self-operated retail income growing by 31% and same-store growth of 19% [2][3]. - The company aims for a net increase of 72 stores globally in FY2026, with a target of 50 new stores in mainland China, primarily expected to be achieved in the second half of the fiscal year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are estimated at HKD 15,284 million, HKD 17,180 million, and HKD 18,740 million, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 12%, and 9% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be HKD 1,505 million, HKD 1,731 million, and HKD 1,980 million, with growth rates of 37%, 15%, and 14% respectively [3][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be HKD 2.56, HKD 2.95, and HKD 3.37 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's FY25 performance exceeded expectations due to effective strategic adjustments, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the industry, highlighting the value of leading companies [2][4]. Financial Performance - FY25 revenue was HKD 89.66 billion, down 17.5% year-on-year, with a decline of 18.4% in the first half and 15.1% in the second half [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.92 billion, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, with the first half down 44.4% and the second half up 73.8% [3]. - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.52 per share, with a payout ratio of 87.8% [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by region showed declines: Mainland direct sales down 18.2%, franchise sales down 15.0%, and Hong Kong/Macau down 20.6% [2]. - The number of stores in Mainland China decreased by 896 to 6,274, with same-store sales down 19.4% for direct stores and 13.9% for franchises [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from gold by weight decreased by 29.4%, while revenue from priced gold increased by 105.5%, and jewelry embedding revenue fell by 13.8% [2]. - Priced gold products accounted for 18.1% of gold product revenue, with significant sales from the Heritage and Palace Museum series exceeding HKD 4 billion each [2]. Margin and Profitability - Gross margin improved to 29.5%, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and product transformation strategies [3]. - Operating profit margin was 16.4%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Trends - Since April 2024, gold prices have been rising, with consumer confidence in gold's long-term value increasing due to international conflicts [3]. - The retail performance in April and May 2025 showed a slight decline of 1.7% year-on-year, with Mainland China down 2.9% and Hong Kong/Macau up 6.3% [3]. Management Guidance - Management is cautiously optimistic, projecting mid-single-digit growth for same-store sales in FY26 for both Mainland and Hong Kong/Macau [4]. - Expected gross margin decline of 0.8-1.2 percentage points due to last year's gold price benefits, but a steady increase is anticipated when excluding gold price impacts [4]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focused on brand and product-driven growth, with plans to open 20 new image stores and launch a high-end jewelry series [4]. - Projected net profits for FY26 and FY27 are HKD 8.39 billion and HKD 9.28 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 42% and 11% respectively [4].