Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors (601633) [2] Core Views - Short-term performance is under pressure, but domestic and overseas growth remains certain [1] - The company reported a total sales volume of 256,800 vehicles in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32% [5] - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 40 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year and 33% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.751 billion yuan, a decline of 46% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company is expected to benefit from new vehicle launches and increased intelligence features, which may drive sales growth [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 212.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 12.841 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.50 yuan [6] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is forecasted to be 19.2% [6] - The report adjusts the revenue forecast for 2025-2027 downwards due to increased competition and external factors, with new estimates of 212.7 billion yuan, 252.8 billion yuan, and 299.3 billion yuan respectively [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is launching multiple new models and significant updates to existing models, which are expected to drive domestic sales growth [7] - The overseas market is also anticipated to see growth with the upcoming production at the Brazil factory and the introduction of new models [7] - The report suggests that the company can mitigate the impact of increased scrap taxes in Russia through local production and pricing strategies [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total sales volume of 77,900 vehicles in February 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.65% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.77% [4] - The company is expected to enter a new vehicle cycle soon, with significant model launches planned, including the Tank 400 and the 2025 Tank 300, which are anticipated to drive sales growth [7] - The company aims for substantial sales growth in both domestic and overseas markets, projecting domestic sales to reach 1.13 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46%, and overseas sales to reach 550,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20% [7] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 25.08 CNY - Market capitalization: 155,342 million CNY - Price-to-book ratio: 2.8 - Dividend yield: 1.20% [1] Sales Performance - February sales breakdown: - Haval: 43,300 units (YoY -3.20%, MoM -10.82%) - Wey: 3,643 units (YoY +37.52%, MoM -27.24%) - Pickup trucks: 17,300 units (YoY +65.04%, MoM +40.11%) - Ora: 1,898 units (YoY -36.86%, MoM -13.45%) - Tank: 1,180 units (YoY +15.72%, MoM -8.43%) [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025: 243,546 million CNY - Net profit forecast for 2025: 15,676 million CNY - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025: 1.83 CNY - Projected growth rates: Revenue growth of 26.1% in 2025 and net profit growth of 25.7% in 2025 [5][10] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its product lineup with new models and technological advancements, particularly in smart driving capabilities, which are expected to improve brand reputation and user coverage [7] - The company is also set to benefit from local production in Brazil, which will help mitigate risks associated with tax increases in other markets [7]