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长城汽车(601633):短期业绩承压,不改国内、海外增长确定性
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors (601633) [2] Core Views - Short-term performance is under pressure, but domestic and overseas growth remains certain [1] - The company reported a total sales volume of 256,800 vehicles in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32% [5] - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 40 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year and 33% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.751 billion yuan, a decline of 46% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company is expected to benefit from new vehicle launches and increased intelligence features, which may drive sales growth [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 212.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 12.841 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.50 yuan [6] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is forecasted to be 19.2% [6] - The report adjusts the revenue forecast for 2025-2027 downwards due to increased competition and external factors, with new estimates of 212.7 billion yuan, 252.8 billion yuan, and 299.3 billion yuan respectively [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is launching multiple new models and significant updates to existing models, which are expected to drive domestic sales growth [7] - The overseas market is also anticipated to see growth with the upcoming production at the Brazil factory and the introduction of new models [7] - The report suggests that the company can mitigate the impact of increased scrap taxes in Russia through local production and pricing strategies [7]
长城汽车(601633):2024年年报业绩点评:出口+高端带动单车利润翻倍,智能化焕新成长
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-03-31 15:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 202.20 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.69 billion yuan, up 80.8% year-on-year [6][12]. - The company's sales volume increased by 0.2% to 1.23 million vehicles in 2024, with export sales rising by 43.4% to 453,100 units, accounting for 36.7% of total sales [6][10]. - The introduction of advanced intelligent driving features is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and drive sales growth [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 59.94 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year and 17.9% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The average revenue per vehicle increased by 16.5% to 163,900 yuan, with export vehicle average revenue rising by 4.9% to 182,800 yuan [6][10]. - The adjusted gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 19.5%, driven by a higher proportion of sales from premium brands [6][12]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 255.46 billion yuan, 290.27 billion yuan, and 322.72 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][12]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 15.00 billion yuan, 16.92 billion yuan, and 18.73 billion yuan for the same years [8][12]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1.75 yuan, 1.98 yuan, and 2.19 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][12].