口子窖（603589）在2024年度暨2025年一季度业绩说明会上表示，目前兼系列中档偏低价位产品动销良 好，高端兼系列动销不及预期。兼5、兼6、兼8产品价格稳定在公司指导价格体系，兼10、兼20价格略 低于指导价格。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Kuozi Jiao in 2024 shows weak growth, with revenue only slightly increasing by 0.89% to 6.015 billion yuan, while net profit declined by 3.83% to 1.655 billion yuan, indicating a significant gap compared to its main competitor, Yingjia Gongjiu [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Kuozi Jiao's revenue for 2024 is 6.015 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.655 billion yuan, both showing declines compared to the previous year [1] - Yingjia Gongjiu reported a revenue increase of 8.46% to 7.344 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 13.45% to 2.589 billion yuan, highlighting Kuozi Jiao's underperformance [2] - Kuozi Jiao's revenue growth in its core market of Anhui is only 1.1%, while Yingjia Gongjiu's growth is significantly higher at 12.75% [1][2] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The competition in the Anhui liquor market is intensifying, with Kuozi Jiao previously holding the second position but now being surpassed by Yingjia Gongjiu [2][3] - The revenue gap between Kuozi Jiao and Yingjia Gongjiu narrowed from 780 million yuan in 2018 to 452 million yuan in 2021, but Kuozi Jiao was overtaken again in 2022 [3] - Kuozi Jiao's slow product updates and ineffective sales strategies have contributed to its declining market position [3][4] Group 3: Product and Channel Strategy - Kuozi Jiao's main product line has not been updated for over a decade, leading to product aging and a lack of competitiveness in the high-end market [3][4] - The company has implemented a large dealer system for distribution, which has limited its ability to adapt to market changes and promote new products effectively [5][6] - Kuozi Jiao is attempting to reform its distribution channels to enhance product promotion and market development, but the short-term effects of these changes have yet to be seen [5][6] Group 4: National Expansion Challenges - Kuozi Jiao's revenue from outside Anhui remains low, accounting for less than 20% of total revenue, with a decline of 2.88% in 2024 [6][7] - The company aims to accelerate its national expansion by establishing operational centers in other regions, but it faces significant challenges in reducing its reliance on the Anhui market [6][7] - The chairman of Kuozi Jiao acknowledged the gap in achieving national expansion, emphasizing the need for further development outside its core market [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 40 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.8% to 1.655 billion yuan. In Q4 alone, revenue increased by 9.0% year-on-year to 1.65 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 7.5% to 350 million yuan [1][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, which is a 3.6% increase. However, sales receipts decreased by 14.8% to 1.2 billion yuan, and contract liabilities reduced by 290 million yuan compared to Q4 2024 [1][4]. - The company is focusing on channel reform and resource integration, particularly in the Anhui province, while also expanding its product offerings in the 100-300 yuan price range. The introduction of new products is expected to enhance market performance, although challenges remain due to intensified competition [1][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 5.556 billion yuan, representing a decline of 7.6% year-on-year. The net profit is projected to be 1.499 billion yuan, down 9.4% from the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.50 yuan [4][8]. - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 74.1%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell to 20.8%, down 3.7 percentage points [1][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow to 14.217 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0% [4][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 谢谢谢谢谢寻寻寻 口子窖（603589）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 全年增速回正，改革仍待显效 目标价：40 元 事项： 公司研究 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,015 | 5,556 | 5,728 | 5,935 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.9% | -7.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,655 | 1,499 | 1,568 | 1,679 | | 同比增速(%) | -3.8% | -9.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.76 | 2.50 | 2.61 | 2.80 | | 市盈率(倍) | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 风险提示：新品动销不及预期、渠道改革放缓、徽酒竞争加剧。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要 ...