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研报掘金丨东吴证券:金徽酒升级韧性延续,回款节奏稳健,维持“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-08-26 09:48
东吴证券研报指出,金徽酒25H1归母净利润2.98亿元,同比+1.12%;其中25Q2归母净利润0.64亿元, 同比-12.78%。年份、柔和系列增势延续,持续深耕大西北根据地。分地区来看,上半年省内、省外营 收分别同比-1.11%、+1.78%,省内各个区域趋势不错,省外陕西经过两年调整目前势能向好,华东聚 焦核心区域有所调整。短期来看,当前白酒产业虽进入深度调整,但金徽品牌、渠道协同发力,销售节 奏彰显韧性。中长期来看,金徽经营风格稳健同时不失进取,坚持"布局全国、深耕西北、重点突破"战 略路径,稳步推进甘青新市场一体化和陕宁市场一体化建设,进一步夯实大西北根据地市场,着力培育 华东市场、北方市场为增长新引擎。二季度升级韧性延续,回款节奏稳健,中长期持续推进大西北根据 地市场一体化建设。维持"买入"评级。 ...
金徽酒(603919):2025年中报点评:升级韧性延续,回款节奏稳健
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-26 02:58
证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 金徽酒(603919) 2025 年中报点评:升级韧性延续,回款节奏 稳健 股价走势 买入(维持) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,548 | 3,021 | 3,027 | 3,229 | 3,490 | | 同比(%) | 26.64 | 18.59 | 0.19 | 6.69 | 8.08 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 328.86 | 388.15 | 377.15 | 416.92 | 465.18 | | 同比(%) | 17.35 | 18.03 | (2.83) | 10.55 | 11.57 | | EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) | 0.65 | 0.77 | 0.74 | 0.82 | 0.92 | | P/E(现价&最新摊薄) | 32.24 | 27.31 | 28.11 | 25.43 | 22.79 | [Table_Tag] [Table_ ...
金徽酒(603919):结构稳步升级,经营节奏稳健
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-24 13:26
金徽酒(603919.SH)2025 年半年报点评 结构稳步升级,经营节奏稳健 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ➢ 事件:2025 年 8 月 23 日,公司发布 25 年半年报,公司 25H1 实现营收 17.59 亿元,同增 0.37%;实现归母净利润 2.98 亿元,同增 1.12%;实现扣非 归母净利润 2.90 亿元,同减 4.05%。单二季度看,25Q2 实现营收 6.51 亿元, 同减 4.02%;实现归母净利润 0.64 亿元,同减 12.78%;实现扣非归母净利润 0.58 亿元,同减 27.25%。 ➢ 毛利率稳健提升,费用投入节奏稳定。公司产品结构持续优化带动毛利率水 平稳定提升,25H1 销售毛利率为 65.65%,同增 0.53pcts;归母净利率为 16.95%,同增 0.14pcts,扣非净利率 16.46%,同减 0.75pcts。公司加强费用 投放精细化管控,25H1 销售费用率为 18.96%,同减 0.20pcts;管理费用率为 9.24%,同减 0.46pcts。25H1 末合同负债 5.98 亿元,同增 23.88%;经营性现 金流 3.21 亿元,同减 7.22% ...
口子窖(603589):场景缺失需求疲软,Q2报表同步释压
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-22 08:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 34.65 yuan [5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan and a net profit of 715 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 20.07% and 24.63% respectively [1]. - The high-end liquor segment saw a substantial drop in revenue, contributing to a shift in product structure, with high-end liquor accounting for 94.13% of total revenue in Q2 2025, down from previous periods [1]. - The company is expected to recover in the medium to long term as market conditions improve, with projected net profits of 1.044 billion yuan, 1.193 billion yuan, and 1.420 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the gross margin was 73.07%, down 2.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin dropped to 14.51%, a decrease of 11.18 percentage points [2]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios were 14.09% and 7.37% respectively for the first half of 2025, indicating a strategic adjustment in marketing expenses [2]. - Forecasts for revenue and net profit show a decline in 2025, with expected revenues of 4.691 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.044 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4][10].
口子窖(603589):迎驾贡酒(603198)2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:基本盘稳固,静待改革红利释放
Minsheng Securities· 2025-04-30 11:04
口子窖(603198.SH)2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 基本盘稳固 静待改革红利释放 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件:公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报,24 年全年公司实现营收/ 归母净利润 60.15/16.55 亿元,同比+0.89%/-3.83%;经计算,24Q4 实现营收 /归母净利润 16.53/3.45 亿元,同比+9.02%/-7.55%;25Q1 实现营收/归母净 利润 18.10/6.10 亿元,同比+2.42%/+3.59%。 ➢ 兼系列省内外招商汇量,省内精耕细作、省外聚焦核心市场。分产品看:酒 类主营 58.76 亿元,同比+0.46%,量增+2.76%,价增-2.24%。毛利率 74.33%, 同比-0.59pcts。其中:①高档白酒(年份系列/兼系列/小池窖等)24 年实现营收 56.81 亿元,同比+0.06%,量增+5.37%,价增-5.04%,吨价下移或系兼系列推 广期费用投放直接抵减收入所致。毛利率-0.22pcts 至 75.65%,在酒类主营业 务中占比-0.39pcts 至 96.69%。25Q1 高档白酒 17.28 亿元 ...
口子窖:2024年报及2025年一季报点评全年增速回正,改革仍待显效-20250429
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-29 05:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 40 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.8% to 1.655 billion yuan. In Q4 alone, revenue increased by 9.0% year-on-year to 1.65 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 7.5% to 350 million yuan [1][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, which is a 3.6% increase. However, sales receipts decreased by 14.8% to 1.2 billion yuan, and contract liabilities reduced by 290 million yuan compared to Q4 2024 [1][4]. - The company is focusing on channel reform and resource integration, particularly in the Anhui province, while also expanding its product offerings in the 100-300 yuan price range. The introduction of new products is expected to enhance market performance, although challenges remain due to intensified competition [1][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 5.556 billion yuan, representing a decline of 7.6% year-on-year. The net profit is projected to be 1.499 billion yuan, down 9.4% from the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.50 yuan [4][8]. - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 74.1%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell to 20.8%, down 3.7 percentage points [1][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow to 14.217 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0% [4][8].
口子窖(603589):2024年报及2025年一季报点评:全年增速回正,改革仍待显效
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-29 04:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price set at 40 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.8% to 1.655 billion yuan. In Q4 alone, revenue reached 1.65 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 7.5% to 350 million yuan. For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.81 billion yuan, a 2.4% increase, with net profit rising by 3.6% to 610 million yuan [1][4]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: Total revenue was 6,015 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,655 million yuan, down 3.8% [4]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: Expected total revenue for 2025 is 5,556 million yuan, with a projected decline of 7.6%. The net profit is anticipated to be 1,499 million yuan, a decrease of 9.4% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS for 2024 is reported at 2.76 yuan, with projections of 2.50 yuan for 2025 and 2.61 yuan for 2026 [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 13 for 2024, increasing to 14 in 2025, and then decreasing to 12 by 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The company has shown a positive revenue growth in Q4 2024, which has contributed to an overall positive growth for the year, despite challenges in profit margins and sales returns [1][8]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on channel reform and resource integration, particularly in the Anhui province, to enhance market competitiveness. The introduction of new products in the 100-300 yuan price range is expected to strengthen its market position [1][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while short-term financials may face pressure, the ongoing reforms and market adjustments could lead to improved performance in the long run. The target price has been adjusted to 40 yuan, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook [1][8].