行 业 研 究 / 国 防 军 工 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 国防军工行业专题研究 2025Q3 基金持仓超配比例近 5 年新 低，配置比例有望触底反弹 2025 年 11 月 11 日 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：张凯 证书编号：S1160525050002 证券分析师：刘帅 证书编号：S1160525090002 【投资要点】 【配置建议】 我们认为，随着"十五五"规划方向的逐步明晰与落地实施，国防装 备行业有望进入新一轮订单驱动下的放量周期，同时军工板块亦将迎 来业绩复苏和估值重塑的新阶段。以军机、航发为牵引的航空装备依 旧是军工板块的中坚力量，以智能技术、无人装备和体系融合为特征 的新域新质方向有望成为"十五五"国防建设的核心增量，军贸将对 我国军工产业天花板的提供持续动能。 建议关注： 相对指数表现 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2024/11 2025/5 2025/11 国防军工 沪深300 相关研究 《扶摇直上九万里——如箭在弦的低成本 运载火箭助力星座基建加速》 2025.11.04 《商业航天高密度发射加速，应用百花齐 放可 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Viewpoints - Guotai Group is positioned as a regional leader in the civil explosives industry, with a diversified layout that includes military new materials and rail transit automation, which supports growth [1][15]. - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to recover as downstream demand gradually increases, with a stable performance in civil explosive product sales and significant breakthroughs in military new materials [2][25]. - The military budget in China is projected to grow, which will likely enhance the demand for military equipment, benefiting the company's product offerings [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Leader in Civil Explosives - Guotai Group focuses on an integrated civil explosives business, including industrial explosives and blasting services, while also expanding into military new materials and rail transit automation [1][15]. - As the only civil explosive manufacturer in Jiangxi Province, the company holds a significant market advantage [1]. 2. Focus on Civil Explosives with Stable Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.704 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.92% year-on-year, and a net profit of 219 million yuan, down 3.16% year-on-year [2][25]. - From 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 1.988 billion yuan to 2.541 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.06% [2][25]. - The company expects to maintain revenue and profit growth trends due to its diversified business layout and improving downstream demand [2][25]. 3. Multi-Dimensional Layout in Military Products - China's military budget for 2024 is set at 1,665.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [3][33]. - The company is expanding its production capacity for energetic materials, with a new production line expected to significantly enhance its output [3][39]. - The military new materials business is anticipated to benefit from the increasing proportion of equipment expenditure in the military budget [3][40]. 4. Industry Supply-Side Concentration and Infrastructure Projects - The civil explosives industry is experiencing a steady upward trend, with increasing supply-side concentration [4][50]. - The construction of major infrastructure projects, such as the Gan-Yue Canal, is expected to boost downstream demand for civil explosives [4][54]. - The company has reported strong sales performance, with significant increases in production capacity utilization and sales rates [4][54].