Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.92 CNY based on a 28x PE for 2025 [2][5][9]. Core Insights - The company is expanding its summer ice cream market and focusing on restaurant and supermarket channels, which are expected to drive growth [1][8]. - The introduction of new ice cream products is anticipated to significantly boost the ice cream business, addressing seasonal sales challenges for downstream baking stores [8]. - The company is leveraging its star products to penetrate the North American market, with promising growth in international business [8]. - The multi-channel strategy is showing potential, with notable performance in restaurant and supermarket channels contributing to revenue growth [8]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.89 CNY, 2.26 CNY, and 2.62 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to increased competition and channel adjustments [2][9]. - Revenue projections for 2023-2027 show a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 3,499 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 5,384 million CNY by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 73 million CNY in 2023 to 443 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth potential [4][11]. Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 31.4% in 2023 to 33.3% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 2.1% to 8.2% over the same period [4][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 3.2% in 2023 to 13.4% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability and efficient capital utilization [4][11].

Summary of the Conference Call for Lihigh Food Company Overview - **Company**: Lihigh Food - **Date of Call**: July 18, 2025 Key Points Industry Dynamics - **Impact of Sam's Club CEO Change**: The new CEO has accelerated product iteration in the bakery section, increasing demands on suppliers for R&D and service response speed. Lihigh Food has maintained stable cooperation with suppliers, with no significant changes in pricing or supplier numbers [2][4][6]. Product Performance - **Sales of New Products**: - Fig Cheese European Bread and Taro Mochi have monthly sales exceeding 10 million. - Creamy Small Square was temporarily taken off the shelf due to seasonal raw material shortages, while the Black Pepper Sausage Puff, upgraded to Cheese Sausage Bread, also achieved over 10 million in sales [2][7]. - **Stable Sales Trends**: Overall sales trends remain stable, with the Taro Mochi product achieving nearly 400 million in sales last year [2][9]. New Product Launches - **Upcoming Products**: - An upgraded version of the Multigrain Cheese Bun is planned for release in the second half of the year, with annualized sales exceeding 100 million in 2023. - Additional new products are pending, with launch dates dependent on customer notifications [2][8]. Seasonal Products - **Ice Cream Cake Sales**: The summer promotion of ice cream cakes has seen significant sales growth, alongside a successful collaboration with a chain restaurant for the Salty Cheese Mochi Ice Cream [2][12]. Production and Supply Chain - **New Pizza Factory**: A new pizza factory is expected to be operational by the end of this year or early next year, with specific output values yet to be determined [2][13]. - **Cream Production Compliance**: The company has prepared for the implementation of new national standards for cream production, with 33% cream already in production and 36% undergoing internal testing [2][14]. Market Competition - **Competitive Landscape**: The cream market is highly competitive, especially for traditional mixed cream. Lihigh Food has introduced higher-end animal cream products, which have performed well, prompting other manufacturers to enter the market [2][15]. Channel Strategies - **Response to Channel Pressures**: In response to pressures in the bakery channel, Lihigh Food has introduced new cream products and frozen baked goods, offering combination discounts to stabilize channels and maintain relationships with key distributors [2][5][16]. Financial Performance - **Raw Material Price Stability**: The company employs strategies such as locking orders and supplier premiums to maintain stable raw material prices, despite some fluctuations in the second quarter [2][21]. - **Profit Margin Outlook**: The short-term profit margin is expected to be in the range of 8% to 10%, considering raw material cost control and efficiency improvements [2][30]. Future Outlook - **Expansion Plans**: The company plans to continue expanding its national market presence, particularly in non-South China regions, through regional marketing companies [2][26]. - **Cold Chain Logistics**: Lihigh Food aims to enhance its competitiveness in other regions by optimizing cold chain logistics to reduce transportation costs [2][27]. Additional Insights - **Sales Team Adjustments**: The company is not actively laying off staff but is improving efficiency through natural attrition and resource reallocation [2][24][25]. - **International Market Exploration**: Lihigh Food is exploring international markets, with subsidiaries established in the U.S. and Indonesia for product exports [2][20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, highlighting Lihigh Food's strategic initiatives, product performance, and market positioning.

哈根达斯显然感受到了消费场景受限带来的压力。哈根达斯产品更注重门店消费体验，与新式茶饮和杯装冰淇淋可随时外带、消费场景不受限的特点不同。 近两年来，哈根达斯在华业绩面临压力。前不久，通用磨坊方面曾透露，哈根达斯在华店铺客流量出现两位数的下滑。同时在华门店数量也有所减少。 但从行业整体来看，国内冰淇淋市场依然具有广阔的发展潜力与空间。凯中凯战略定位咨询刘凯歌引用"全局数据"调研数据表示，美国人均年冰淇淋消费量 达到25.8千克，日本人均年消费量为11千克，而中国人均年消费量仅为2.9千克。刘凯歌指出，中国市场冰淇淋品类尚未发展成熟，仍处于市场培育阶段。 随着消费人群代际更迭，市场需求持续翻新，品牌需要主动求变才能立足市场。以DQ为例，许惟抡指出，口味创新是品牌发展的关键，需要持续聆听消费 者反馈，不断研发新口味，以此提升复购率。在体验经济盛行的当下，门店定制化设计同样不容忽视，DQ倡导"千店千面"，注重融入当地特色。例如，南 京老门东店融合明清古建筑风格，让顾客沉浸式感受地域文化。 作为老牌冰淇淋连锁品牌，深入理解年轻群体已成为DQ的重要发力点。品牌通过构建跨圈层IP合作矩阵，持续塑造年轻化形象，触达Z世代消费 ...