Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.92 CNY based on a 28x PE for 2025 [2][5][9]. Core Insights - The company is expanding its summer ice cream market and focusing on restaurant and supermarket channels, which are expected to drive growth [1][8]. - The introduction of new ice cream products is anticipated to significantly boost the ice cream business, addressing seasonal sales challenges for downstream baking stores [8]. - The company is leveraging its star products to penetrate the North American market, with promising growth in international business [8]. - The multi-channel strategy is showing potential, with notable performance in restaurant and supermarket channels contributing to revenue growth [8]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.89 CNY, 2.26 CNY, and 2.62 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to increased competition and channel adjustments [2][9]. - Revenue projections for 2023-2027 show a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 3,499 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 5,384 million CNY by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 73 million CNY in 2023 to 443 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth potential [4][11]. Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 31.4% in 2023 to 33.3% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 2.1% to 8.2% over the same period [4][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 3.2% in 2023 to 13.4% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability and efficient capital utilization [4][11].

Core Viewpoint - The return of "鹿角巷" (The Alley) marks a significant comeback in the tea beverage market, aiming to regain its former popularity amidst fierce competition and evolving consumer preferences [1][5][17]. Company Overview - 鹿角巷 originally opened its first store in Shanghai in 2017, quickly gaining fame with its signature black sugar pearl milk tea, which led to a surge in popularity and the emergence of the "dirty tea" trend [5]. - At its peak, 鹿角巷 had over 7000 imitations across the country, while only 114 authentic stores existed, leading to significant brand dilution [5]. - The company invested over 100 million yuan in anti-counterfeiting efforts from 2018 to early 2022 [5]. Recent Developments - In June 2023, 鹿角巷 announced the opening of 30 new stores across various cities, including Beijing and Shenzhen, as part of its strategy to rebuild brand influence [7]. - As of now, 鹿角巷 has established nearly 40 stores in 25 cities nationwide [9]. Product and Pricing Strategy - 鹿角巷 continues to focus on its black sugar pearl series while introducing new products like rainbow crushed ice and freshly brewed tea, emphasizing the use of fresh milk [9]. - The pricing strategy positions most products in the range of 15-20 yuan, with an average consumption of 16 yuan at the Beijing flagship store, maintaining a mid-range price point [11]. Store Format and Marketing - The new store format has shifted from larger spaces to smaller ones, approximately 20-30 square meters, aligning with current market trends [11]. - The brand employs a "one-day store manager" marketing strategy to attract customers, featuring guest appearances from celebrities [11]. Market Context - The return of 鹿角巷 coincides with a broader trend of nostalgic brands re-entering the market, such as 桃园眷村 and LADY M, which also aim to leverage their past popularity [12][14]. - The competitive landscape has evolved significantly, with new brands like 喜茶 and 奈雪 enhancing their product offerings and supply chains, while price wars are becoming prevalent in the industry [18].

Group 1 - The article discusses various baking recipes, including ingredients and preparation steps for different components like chocolate cake base, chestnut cream, and caramel nuts [4][9][11][14]. - It provides detailed steps for making a chocolate cake base, including mixing eggs, sugar, and other ingredients, followed by baking instructions [5][7]. - The preparation of chestnut cream involves heating chestnut paste and mixing it with butter and rum [11][12][13]. Group 2 - The article outlines the assembly of a dessert, layering chocolate cake base, chestnut cream, and additional cake layers, topped with powdered sugar and marshmallows [16][18][20]. - It highlights the importance of specific ingredient measurements, such as using 250 grams of milk and 250 grams of eggs for the chestnut cake [9]. - The article also mentions the use of caramelized nuts as a decorative element for the dessert [14][15].