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波司登(03998.HK):暖冬依旧逆势增长 运营稳健
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-02 19:10
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance for the fiscal year 2024/25, with revenue increasing by 11.6% to 25.9 billion and net profit rising by 14.3% to 3.51 billion, aligning with expectations [1] Revenue Breakdown - Brand down jackets revenue grew by 11% to 21.67 billion, with Bosideng, Xuezhongfei, and Bingjie contributing 10.1%, 9.2%, and -12.9% growth respectively, reaching 18.48 billion, 2.21 billion, and 0.13 billion [1] - OEM management business revenue increased by 26.4% to 3.37 billion, while women's and diversified clothing revenues decreased by 20.6% and increased by 2.8% to 0.65 billion and 0.21 billion respectively [1] Channel Performance - Brand down jacket sales through self-operated and wholesale channels grew by 5.2% and 24.3% to 15.09 billion and 5.72 billion respectively [1] - The number of retail stores increased by 253 to 3,470, with self-operated and wholesale stores net increasing by 100 and 153 to 1,236 and 2,234 respectively [1] Operational Efficiency - The company enhanced operational efficiency through the expansion of the Top Store system and upgrading channel stratification [2] - Online sales for brand down jackets rose by 9.4% to 7.48 billion, accounting for 34.5% of total sales [2] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 57.3%, with brand down jackets' gross margin declining by 1.6 percentage points to 63.4% due to lower-margin franchise channels and rising raw material costs [2] - Net profit margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 13.6% due to a decrease in distribution and administrative expense ratios [2] Financial Health - Inventory increased by 23.6% to 3.95 billion, with inventory turnover days rising by 3 days to 118 days [2] - The company maintained a healthy cash position with cash and cash equivalents of 4.18 billion and a dividend payout ratio of 84.1% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10.06%, 10.37%, and 10.51% for FY2026 to FY2028, reaching 28.506 billion, 31.461 billion, and 34.766 billion respectively [3] - Net profit is projected to grow by 11.48%, 11.77%, and 11.59% to 3.917 billion, 4.378 billion, and 4.886 billion respectively, with corresponding valuations of 12, 11, and 10 times [3]
波司登(03998):暖冬下FY25稳健增长,利润增速优于收入
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 12:53
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with an expected relative performance increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [9]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience amid external disturbances, presenting opportunities for seasonal layout [3]. - The brand's down jackets showed strong performance, with stable profit levels [3]. - The expansion of product categories is leading growth, and the long-term development of the company is viewed positively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024/25, the company achieved a revenue of 25,902 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3,514 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [4]. - The overall gross margin was 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 13.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The main brand's down jacket business generated revenue of 21,668 million yuan, growing by 11.0% and accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [5]. - The brand "Bosideng" saw revenue increase by 10.1% to 18,481 million yuan, with a gross margin of 69.0% [5]. - The "Xuezhongfei" brand achieved revenue of 2,206 million yuan, up 9.2%, while the "Bingjie" brand's revenue decreased by 12.9% to 127 million yuan [5]. Channel and Operational Efficiency - The company is optimizing its channel structure with a net increase of 253 retail outlets, totaling 3,470, including 1,236 self-operated and 2,234 franchised stores [5]. - Online sales reached 7,575 million yuan, growing by 9.3%, with the online revenue of the down jacket business accounting for 34.5% of its segment revenue [5]. - The OEM business grew significantly, with revenue of 3,373 million yuan, up 26.4%, while the women's wear segment faced challenges with a revenue decline of 20.6% [5]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross margin decreased to 57.3%, primarily due to the faster growth of lower-margin OEM business compared to the brand business [5]. - The net profit margin improved to 13.6%, supported by a decrease in the sales expense ratio by 1.8 percentage points to 32.9% [5]. - The company maintained healthy inventory turnover with a total inventory of 3,951 million yuan and a turnover period of 118 days [5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 3,911 million yuan for FY2026, 4,345 million yuan for FY2027, and 4,784 million yuan for FY2028, with growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 10% respectively [6].