2025.12.10 本文字数：2573，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 韦薇 美股距离年底还有近10个交易日，"降息交易"成为交易员的头号关注事项。 当前，市场对12月（本周四）降息概率的定价已接近90%（三周前的低谷约为30%）。在结束量化紧缩 后，美联储是否会以某种形式重启扩表以增加市场流动性，也备受瞩目。 在降息气氛的烘托下，美股似乎正从"人工智能（AI）泡沫论"中复苏，重新备战年底的"圣诞反弹"。据 第一财经获悉，高盛对冲基金主管帕斯卡列洛（Tony Pasquariello）在最新的交易笔记中提及，就在三 周前，各种投资者情绪指标都处于低迷状态，标普500指数跌破50日移动均线，客户大幅卖出，而如 今，隐含波动率大幅下降，多头头寸重新充盈，标普500指数距离突破高点仅差毫厘。 鹰派降息+扩表？ 事实上，由于最新劳动力数据发布延迟，市场预期的波动尤为剧烈。景顺亚太区全球市场策略师赵耀庭 对第一财经提及，就在不久前，市场对12月份降息的预期概率只有20%，但是就在最近这几天概率上升 到近100%。"虽然在这段时间美国经济数据几乎没有出现什么新的进展，但市场预期却出现如此剧烈的 摆动，这说明未来这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has risen to nearly 90% from about 30% three weeks ago, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a potential "Santa Rally" in the stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%–3.75% [2]. - Concerns about the labor market are driving the rationale for rate cuts, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 2022 [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased to $6.5 trillion, with bank reserves at $2.9 trillion, leading to speculation about the potential resumption of quantitative easing to enhance market liquidity [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally," as December typically shows strong seasonal performance for U.S. stocks [5]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has historically outperformed other indices in December, with an average increase of 1.7%, and if it records positive returns, the average gain could rise to 6% [6]. - The Russell 2000 index has shown even stronger performance, with a December average return of 2.3% and a monthly average positive return of 4.3%, indicating its stability and potential for higher returns compared to major benchmarks [6]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Major Wall Street firms maintain a positive outlook for the market heading into 2026, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points, supported by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [7]. - Bank of America adopts a more cautious stance, forecasting the S&P 500 to end 2026 at 7100 points, citing concerns over liquidity and the shift in capital expenditure priorities [8]. - There is a consensus among institutions regarding the ongoing earnings divergence, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have greater recovery potential [8].

美联储是否会以某种形式重启扩表以增加市场流动性，备受瞩目。 市场普遍预期，美联储将连续第三次降息25个基点（BP），把联邦基金利率区间降至3.5%–3.75%。 高盛认为，降息理由充分：就业增长不足以匹配劳动力供给增长，失业率已连续三个月上升至4.4%； 多项劳动力市场紧张度指标整体走弱。 数据显示，受过大学教育的劳动者就业市场的恶化尤为显著。20-24岁大学毕业生的失业率已攀升至 8.5%，比2022年的低点高出3.5个百分点。大学毕业生占美国劳动力的40%以上，约占美国劳动收入的 55-60%。这一关键人群就业机会的进一步恶化，或许反映AI和其他提高效率措施的影响可能会对消费 支出产生不成比例的负面影响，并最终导致进一步的降息。 美股距离年底还有近10个交易日，"降息交易"成为交易员的头号关注事项。 当前，市场对12月（本周四）降息概率的定价已接近90%（三周前的低谷约为30%）。在结束量化紧缩 后，美联储是否会以某种形式重启扩表以增加市场流动性，也备受瞩目。 在降息气氛的烘托下，美股似乎正从"人工智能（AI）泡沫论"中复苏，重新备战年底的"圣诞反弹"。据 第一财经获悉，高盛对冲基金主管帕斯卡列洛（Ton ...