为应对20世纪90年代初国内资产泡沫破灭和1998年亚洲金融危机的冲击，日本央行逐步下调利率至零附 近，到1999年9月更是将政策目标利率降至零。2000年8月，随着亚洲金融危机影响逐渐消退，日本央行 小幅加息至0.25%，但2001年初为应对互联网泡沫破裂和美国经济衰退，连续两次降息至零并正式引入 QE操作，开启了央行资产购买。 2006年7月，日本央行加息并短暂退出QE操作，但2008年底为应对全球金融海啸爆发又连续两次降息至 零附近并恢复QE。2013年4月，日本央行将货币政策进一步拓展为量化质化宽松（QQE），在扩大央行 资产购买的规模和范围的同时，设定了2%的通胀目标。大胆的货币政策、机动的财政政策和以刺激民 间投资为中心的产业政策构成了安倍经济学的"三支箭"。2016年2月，日本央行将政策目标利率降 至-0.1%并引入收益率曲线控制（YCC），开启了负利率时代，直至去年3月才退出这两项安排。 引入QE乃至QQE操作对于推升日本通胀的效果并不理想。1991~2000年（资产泡沫破灭后、实施QE 前），日本消费者物价指数（CPI）和核心CPI年均分别增长0.8%和0.9%。其中，2000年CPI和核心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is derived from public trust, and it must recommit to maintaining the confidence of the American people. The focus should be on three statutory responsibilities: maximum employment, price stability, and moderate long-term interest rates [1][2][14]. Group 1: Critique of Current Policies - The use of unconventional monetary policies since the 2008 financial crisis is described as a dangerous "functional gain" experiment, threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][10]. - The overuse of unconventional policies and the expansion of functions have led to a concentration of wealth among asset owners, exacerbating inequality [4][12]. - The Federal Reserve's actions have created a perception that monetary policy is being used to accommodate fiscal needs, undermining its independence [7][13]. Group 2: Recommendations for the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve should return to its narrow statutory mission and reduce economic distortions, focusing on maximum employment, price stability, and moderate long-term interest rates [8][14]. - Unconventional policies like quantitative easing (QE) should only be used in "true emergencies" and in coordination with other government departments [2][8][14]. - A comprehensive, independent, and nonpartisan review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, regulation, communication, personnel, and research is necessary [8][13]. Group 3: Market Implications - The statements made by the Treasury Secretary are seen as a precursor to a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy, potentially paving the way for financial repression policies such as QE or yield curve control (YCC) [3][9]. - If such policies are implemented, they could lead to a weaker dollar and benefit commodities like gold, silver, and copper, as well as markets like A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3][9].

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen criticizes the Federal Reserve for straying from its statutory duties and emphasizes the need for the Fed to regain public trust and focus on its core mission of maximizing employment, stabilizing prices, and maintaining moderate long-term interest rates [1][12]. Group 1: Critique of Federal Reserve Policies - Bessen describes the Fed's post-financial crisis policies as a dangerous "functional gain" experiment, warning that excessive use of unconventional policies threatens the central bank's independence [1][3]. - He argues that these policies have exacerbated wealth inequality, benefiting asset owners while disadvantaging small businesses and lower-income families [3][10]. - The Treasury Secretary highlights that the Fed's failure to achieve its inflation mandate has widened class and generational disparities, counteracting its intended growth stimulation through the "wealth effect" [3][10]. Group 2: Call for Policy Reformation - Bessen calls for the Fed to return to its three statutory responsibilities and to reduce economic distortions caused by its policies [6][12]. - He insists that unconventional policies like quantitative easing (QE) should only be employed in genuine emergencies and in coordination with other government departments [6][12]. - The need for an independent, bipartisan review of the Fed's monetary policy, regulation, communication, staffing, and research is emphasized to restore credibility and independence [6][11]. Group 3: Implications for Future Monetary Policy - Analysts interpret Bessen's statements as a potential precursor to significant shifts in U.S. monetary policy, possibly paving the way for renewed QE or yield curve control (YCC) [2][7]. - The introduction of "moderate long-term interest rates" as a focus area is seen as a notable signal, suggesting a priority on lowering long-term financing costs, particularly for mortgage rates [1][7]. - If such policies are implemented, they could lead to a weaker dollar and benefit commodities like gold, silver, and copper, as well as markets such as A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2][7].

Group 1 - The core argument of the report is that the massive excess liquidity released by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury has been the primary driver of the bull market in U.S. and global stock markets, raising concerns about how long this support can maintain high valuations [1][2] - The report questions the sustainability of the current high valuations in the stock market, particularly in light of the significant gap between the S&P 500 index and actual corporate profits, which has historically led to negative annualized returns [5][6] - The analysis indicates that the relationship between stock market valuations and productivity growth is distorted due to liquidity effects rather than fundamental economic strength, suggesting a potential risk for risk assets in the near term [2][5] Group 2 - The report highlights that the current market environment is characterized by complacency, with a significant number of earnings downgrades exceeding upgrades, raising the risk of increased volatility and potential declines in the stock market [7][8] - Analysts from JPMorgan warn that the global stock market, particularly the U.S. market, may face significant cracks despite recent highs, as the market sentiment appears overly optimistic amid tightening liquidity and deteriorating corporate earnings outlooks [7][8] - The report anticipates that the S&P 500 index may experience a notable decline, with projections suggesting a potential drop of around 15% by the end of the year, reflecting concerns over high valuations and economic slowdown [8]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to prefer providing liquidity tools linked to loans to commercial banks rather than large-scale bond purchases (QE) in response to future economic challenges [1][4]. Group 1: ECB's Preferred Tools - Economists surveyed believe that in cases of weak inflation, economic slowdown, or financial instability, the ECB will prioritize liquidity injections through Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) [1]. - The ECB may only resort to targeted asset purchase programs if interest rate signals fail to transmit effectively within the Eurozone [1]. Group 2: Concerns Over QE - ECB decision-makers have reservations about the QE policy implemented from 2015 to 2022, especially given the historical losses faced by central banks like the Bundesbank due to rising interest rates [4]. - The Bundesbank has projected a loss of nearly €20 billion (approximately $23 billion) in 2024, marking its first annual loss since the 1970s, which raises concerns about the risks associated with large-scale bond purchases [4]. Group 3: Policy Framework Evaluation - The ECB has retained all policy tools, including QE, but has not specified the conditions under which each tool would be favored [5]. - ECB officials have differing opinions on preferred policy tools, with some favoring direct long-term bond purchases while others prefer LTROs and unutilized targeted asset purchase plans [5][6]. Group 4: Risks and Credibility - The Bundesbank emphasizes caution regarding QE due to the significant risk of losses during crises [6]. - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warns that losses could undermine the ECB's credibility, suggesting that loan support mechanisms may be more effective for restoring credit supply and easier to exit [6].