贝森特发表署名文章称，美联储的独立性来自公众信任，央行必须重新承诺维护美国人民的信心。尤为引人注目的是，贝森特首次将"适度的长期利 率"与最大就业、稳定物价并列，作为美联储重建信誉必须关注的三大法定职责。此外，贝森特明确指出，QE等非常规政策的使用必须限定在"真正的紧 急情况"下，并与联邦政府其他部门协同进行。 贝森特表示，美联储的独立性来自公众信任。央行必须重新承诺维护美国人民的信心。 为了保障自身的未来和美国经济的稳定，美联储必须重新确立 自身的信誉，作为一家独立机构，专注于其法定使命：最大就业、稳定物价和适度的长期利率。 尤为引人注目的是，这是贝森特首次将"适度的长期利率"与最大就业、稳定物价并列，作为美联储重建信誉必须关注的三大法定职责。 在传统认知 中，长期利率更多由市场力量决定，财政部长的这一"点名"被市场视为极不寻常的信号。它暗示着，在特朗普政府的政策议程中，压低长期融资成本 （尤其是与房贷利率挂钩的国债收益率）已成为一项优先任务。 周五，在刊发在《华尔街日报》的署名文章中，贝森特措辞严厉地将美联储后金融危机时代的政策形容为一场危险的"功能增益"实验。他认为，对非常 规政策的过度使用、职能扩张以 ...

美国财政部长贝森题再度公开"敲打"美联储，要求这家全球最具影响力的央行回归其法定职责，服务于 美国人民的信任，而非仅仅是资产所有者。 周五，在刊发在《华尔街日报》的署名文章中，贝森特措辞严厉地将美联储后金融危机时代的政策形容 为一场危险的"功能增益"实验。他认为，对非常规政策的过度使用、职能扩张以及机构臃肿，正在威胁 央行的独立性。他明确指出，QE等非常规政策的使用必须限定在"真正的紧急情况"下，并与联邦政府 其他部门协同进行。 贝森特表示，美联储的独立性来自公众信任。央行必须重新承诺维护美国人民的信心。为了保障自身的 未来和美国经济的稳定，美联储必须重新确立自身的信誉，作为一家独立机构，专注于其法定使命：最 大就业、稳定物价和适度的长期利率。 尤为引人注目的是，这是贝森特首次将"适度的长期利率"与最大就业、稳定物价并列，作为美联储重建 信誉必须关注的三大法定职责。在传统认知中，长期利率更多由市场力量决定，财政部长的这一"点 名"被市场视为极不寻常的信号。它暗示着，在特朗普政府的政策议程中，压低长期融资成本（尤其是 与房贷利率挂钩的国债收益率）已成为一项优先任务。 分析认为，这一系列强硬的表态被视为美国货币政 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the report is that the massive excess liquidity released by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury has been the primary driver of the bull market in U.S. and global stock markets, raising concerns about how long this support can maintain high valuations [1][2] - The report questions the sustainability of the current high valuations in the stock market, particularly in light of the significant gap between the S&P 500 index and actual corporate profits, which has historically led to negative annualized returns [5][6] - The analysis indicates that the relationship between stock market valuations and productivity growth is distorted due to liquidity effects rather than fundamental economic strength, suggesting a potential risk for risk assets in the near term [2][5] Group 2 - The report highlights that the current market environment is characterized by complacency, with a significant number of earnings downgrades exceeding upgrades, raising the risk of increased volatility and potential declines in the stock market [7][8] - Analysts from JPMorgan warn that the global stock market, particularly the U.S. market, may face significant cracks despite recent highs, as the market sentiment appears overly optimistic amid tightening liquidity and deteriorating corporate earnings outlooks [7][8] - The report anticipates that the S&P 500 index may experience a notable decline, with projections suggesting a potential drop of around 15% by the end of the year, reflecting concerns over high valuations and economic slowdown [8]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to prefer providing liquidity tools linked to loans to commercial banks rather than large-scale bond purchases (QE) in response to future economic challenges [1][4]. Group 1: ECB's Preferred Tools - Economists surveyed believe that in cases of weak inflation, economic slowdown, or financial instability, the ECB will prioritize liquidity injections through Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) [1]. - The ECB may only resort to targeted asset purchase programs if interest rate signals fail to transmit effectively within the Eurozone [1]. Group 2: Concerns Over QE - ECB decision-makers have reservations about the QE policy implemented from 2015 to 2022, especially given the historical losses faced by central banks like the Bundesbank due to rising interest rates [4]. - The Bundesbank has projected a loss of nearly €20 billion (approximately $23 billion) in 2024, marking its first annual loss since the 1970s, which raises concerns about the risks associated with large-scale bond purchases [4]. Group 3: Policy Framework Evaluation - The ECB has retained all policy tools, including QE, but has not specified the conditions under which each tool would be favored [5]. - ECB officials have differing opinions on preferred policy tools, with some favoring direct long-term bond purchases while others prefer LTROs and unutilized targeted asset purchase plans [5][6]. Group 4: Risks and Credibility - The Bundesbank emphasizes caution regarding QE due to the significant risk of losses during crises [6]. - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warns that losses could undermine the ECB's credibility, suggesting that loan support mechanisms may be more effective for restoring credit supply and easier to exit [6].