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远大医药(00512.HK):核药增速快 脓毒症STC3141有望成为全球大药
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-27 02:24
机构:东吴证券 研究员:朱国广/刘若彤 2024 年利舒安去甲肾上腺素纳入第十批国家集采,对业绩造成短期压制。 然而公司三年内的增量品种较多,覆盖面较广,有望贡献部分业绩增量,包括1)呼吸及危重症领域, STC3141 脓毒症产品II 期临床达到终点,我们根据其患病人数约500 万人,假设治疗率65%,并中性假 设达峰时,STC3141市占率20%且单价为8 千元,风险校正后中性预测销售峰值100 亿元,有望成为大 单品,建议密切关注其临床研发至上市进度及海外授权进展、2022年诺华合作产品恩卓润/恩明润茚达 格莫和茚达特罗莫米松吸入粉雾剂、2024 年新收购的产品布地奈德鼻喷雾剂、2025 年4 月首仿上市的 丙酸氟替卡松;2)五官科领域,伐尼克兰鼻喷雾剂于2024 年底获批上市、脉血康于2024 年收购多普泰 医药获得、在研还有术后抗炎镇痛、翼状胬肉、干眼症、蠕形螨睑缘炎等多管线并进;3)心脑血管急 救领域,2025 年收购天津田边获得合心爽/合贝爽地尔硫片/胶囊、安步乐克沙格雷酯、2023 年底首仿 上市的力美通依普利酮片。 传统业务稳定增长,新赛道贡献高增长:公司主营覆盖核药及心脑血管精准介入、制药科 ...
远大医药(00512):核药增速快,脓毒症STC3141有望成为全球大药
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-25 05:38
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience significant growth in its nuclear medicine sector, with the STC3141 sepsis product projected to become a major global drug. The report emphasizes the potential of new products in various therapeutic areas, including respiratory, critical care, and ophthalmology [3][9]. - The company has a diversified product portfolio and a robust pipeline, with a focus on innovative therapies and strategic acquisitions to enhance its market position [9][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates in three main segments: nuclear medicine, pharmaceutical technology, and biotechnology, with a strong emphasis on innovation and market expansion through acquisitions [9][18]. 2. Nuclear Medicine Sector - The nuclear medicine segment is rapidly growing, with a focus on the core product Yttrium-90 (Y[90]) and a pipeline of 12 innovative products targeting various cancers. The company has established partnerships with leading international firms to enhance its research and development capabilities [9][35][37]. 3. Pharmaceutical Technology - The pharmaceutical technology segment is expected to see growth from new products in the respiratory and critical care fields, as well as in ophthalmology. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the market opportunities presented by these new therapies [3][9]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from 116.45 billion HKD in 2024 to 146.63 billion HKD by 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 24.68 billion HKD to 27.64 billion HKD in the same period. The projected P/E ratios indicate that the company is undervalued compared to its peers [1][10][24]. 5. Market Potential - The global nuclear medicine market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a rise from 10.7 billion USD in 2023 to 22.8 billion USD by 2030. The Chinese market for radiopharmaceuticals is also expected to expand rapidly, driven by increasing demand and regulatory support [36][38].