兴业证券指出，受益于创新药BD出海和融资企稳回升，多家CRO新签订单逐季度加速，项目量实现双 位数增长。Q4以来从实验用猴、安评报价到临床项目价格均有提升趋势，客户需求保持旺盛，展望 2026年CRO业绩有望进入改善周期。海外需求方面，中国CDMO在全球供应链的位置难以替代，而美 联储降息有利于全球早期研发需求回暖；全球型CDMO订单强劲，业绩高增长的确定性较强。 中泰证券认为，CRO、CDMO行业内外需共振，供给端逐步出清。CRO、CDMO板块自2024Q4海外降 息周期开启带来投融资逐步恢复、2025Q2地缘谈判带来悲观预期改善、2025年以来国内创新药大型BD 落地及重磅政策出炉等多重推动下需求端呈逐步恢复态势，叠加过去三年供给端持续出清，板块有望迎 来盈利与估值同时提升的"戴维斯双击"，建议重点布局相关投资机会。 智通财经APP获悉，CRO概念股集体走高，截至发稿，凯莱英(06821)涨6.27%，报82.2港元；泰格医药 (03347)涨5.48%，报48.92港元；昭衍新药(06127)涨5.19%，报23.52港元；康龙化成(03759)涨3.37%，报 22.68港元；药明康德(02359)涨 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese private equity investment industry has shown signs of recovery in 2025, despite external uncertainties, with significant contributions from national funds and social security funds [1] - Technological innovations in China, such as DeepSeek's large model and humanoid robots, are reshaping the global venture capital landscape and prompting a reevaluation of Chinese asset values [1] - The increase in IPOs and diverse exit channels has created a favorable environment for private equity investments, leading to a wave of mergers and acquisitions driven by policy, industry, and capital [1] Industry Developments - National-level funds and social security funds are accelerating their entry into the market, providing essential capital for the industry [1] - The emergence of a "carrier-level" national venture capital guidance fund is anticipated, alongside the establishment of science and technology innovation funds across various regions [1] - The trend of investing in early-stage, small, and technology-focused ventures has become a consensus within the industry [4][5] Market Trends - The recovery of the secondary market has opened up opportunities for private equity IPO exits, allowing institutions to realize cash returns [1] - A new wave of mergers and acquisitions is emerging, characterized by cross-border resource integration and the entry of large-scale acquisition funds [1] - The upcoming "15th Innovation Capital Annual Conference" will focus on reconstructing value investment and adapting to the new market environment [2][4] Future Outlook - The investment landscape is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on technology transfer and innovation [4][5] - The industry is preparing for a new round of differentiation as it adapts to the changing environment [2] - The conference aims to share insights and experiences to inspire innovative thinking and strengthen confidence in navigating the investment cycle [7][8]

Group 1 - The core narrative of the report emphasizes that in the late stage of the Kondratiev wave, catching up countries must rely on technology and overseas expansion to achieve surpassing the leading countries [2][24]. - The report highlights that the long-term driving force for overseas pricing comes from emerging economies, particularly in the Global South, which are entering an industrialization process [25]. - The report identifies that the key contradiction in overseas pricing is that overseas expansion leads to an increase in ROE, indicating a revaluation at the valuation end [23][24]. Group 2 - The report outlines that the pricing strategy for overseas expansion is based on the global competitiveness of industries, which will become a decisive factor for A-share market growth in the future [23][26]. - The report discusses the importance of selecting industries for overseas expansion, emphasizing the need for high global competitiveness and the ability to successfully enter international markets [26]. - The report provides a framework for evaluating the sustainability of overseas BETA pricing, focusing on domestic and international inflation differentials and global PMI index trends [28]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the performance of active equity funds is significantly influenced by their exposure to overseas markets, with the top 25% of funds having a 5.47 percentage point higher allocation to overseas investments compared to all active funds [12][14]. - The report notes that 36% of companies that issued positive earnings forecasts attributed their growth to overseas demand, highlighting sectors such as PCB, optical modules, and gaming [17][22]. - The report emphasizes that the overseas business gross profit margins are significantly higher than domestic margins, suggesting that increasing overseas exposure can enhance overall ROE [23][19].