Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rebounded from a low level, with a daily increase of 0.47%. The supply and demand pattern has not changed significantly. Although the weekly output decreased slightly, it remains at a high level for the year. Demand is stable but has a seasonal weakening expectation. With inventory at a low level, steel prices are expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.32%. Both supply and demand have increased. Supply has returned to a high level for the year, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. With overseas risks easing, steel prices are expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate at a low level [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore rebounded from a low level, with a daily increase of 1.29%. In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is declining. At the same time, port arrivals have increased slightly, and overseas miners' shipments remain high. With the futures price deeply discounted, ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The US Federal Court blocked the tariff policy announced by President Trump on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority [8]. - In Q1 2025, the domestic sales volume of refrigeration and air - conditioning valves reached 19.915 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [9]. - Fortescue postponed the full - production time of its Iron Bridge Magnetite Project to the 2028 fiscal year. The annual shipment volume is expected to be 10 - 12 million tons in the 2026 fiscal year, 16 - 20 million tons in the 2027 fiscal year, and reach the full - load capacity of 22 million tons in the 2028 fiscal year [10]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,090, 3,160, and 3,230 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,200, 3,150, and 3,270 respectively. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 737 [11]. 3. Futures Market | Product | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,978 | 0.47 | 1,945,056 | 611,105 | 2,377,320 | - 64,068 | | Hot - rolled Coil | 3,110 | 0.32 | 809,980 | 357,449 | 1,552,234 | 15,120 | | Iron Ore | 707.0 | 1.29 | 504,680 | 217,338 | 716,254 | - 5,254 | [13] 4. Related Charts - There are charts showing the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills, including the opening rate of electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of arc - furnace steel mills [15][29] 5. Future Market Judgment - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has not improved. Supply has slightly contracted but the reduction is unlikely to be sustainable. Demand is stable but has a seasonal weakening expectation. With inventory at a low level, steel prices will continue to be under pressure and seek a bottom [37]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have increased. Supply has returned to a high level, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. With overseas risks easing, steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level [38]. - Iron Ore: In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is declining. Supply pressure remains high. With the futures price deeply discounted, ore prices will fluctuate at a low level [39]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with expectations of an upward movement exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [38] Core Insights - April exports showed strong resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, driven primarily by robust demand from non-US regions [11][1] - The HVAC industry experienced significant sales growth in Q1 2025, with exports outperforming domestic sales due to preemptive stocking by overseas distributors amid tariff uncertainties [2][11] - The domestic appliance sector is expected to benefit from strong domestic demand and continued high demand from emerging markets, which is likely to sustain export growth [5][36] Summary by Sections Export Data - In April, China's exports (in USD) increased by 8.1% year-on-year, continuing a positive growth trend [11] - Major trading partners included ASEAN, Europe, and the US, with export values of 1.48 trillion, 1.21 trillion, and 1.07 trillion respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +12.6%, +6.1%, and -1.5% [11] HVAC Industry Performance - The HVAC industry saw a total sales volume of 58.873 million units in Q1 2025, a 15.3% increase year-on-year, with exports at 31.521 million units (+24.5%) outpacing domestic sales [12][15] - Central air conditioning sales reached 36.1 billion yuan, up 7.9% year-on-year, with both domestic and export markets showing growth [12][15] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.00% and the home appliance index increased by 3.3% in the latest week [16] - Key stocks showed significant gains, with Springlight Technology up 46.41% and Greer up 16.79% [16] Raw Material Prices - Recent trends indicate a slight decline in copper and aluminum prices, with copper down 0.15% and aluminum down 0.12% in the last week [20][21] - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by 9.21%, while aluminum has decreased by 5.32% [21] Real Estate Data - In March 2025, new residential construction area decreased by 24.3% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the real estate sector [27][30] - The total area under construction and completed also showed declines of 10.0% and 14.8% respectively [27][30] Investment Recommendations - Focus on domestic demand and subsidy-driven growth in the white goods sector, with specific attention to companies like Gree Electric, Midea Group, and Haier Smart Home [36] - Consider opportunities in the black goods sector, which continues to see structural upgrades, and small appliances that are recovering from previous challenges [36]