奥克斯电气 20251126 摘要 奥克斯电器预计 2026 年外销将实现三位数增长，内销增速虽受竞争影 响有限，但仍将略优于市场平均水平。在价格战不明朗的情况下，总体 利润可能同比微增，公司将持续关注中央空调、多联机、大型机组以及 热管理领域的发展。 受气候和地缘政治因素影响，2025 年奥克斯电器出口业务有所下滑， 但凭借在中东、东南亚、东欧和南美等优势市场的良好表现，预计 2026 年订单量同比增长约 20%，实现双位数规模增长。海外市场竞争 将因国内企业纷纷转向外销而加剧。 奥克斯电器通过国家代理和自营销售公司两种模式拓展海外市场，对当 地经销商具有一定把控能力。公司通过拓展网络和促销活动赋能代理商， 进行精细化库存管理，以应对气候等因素导致的库存波动。 奥克斯电器与美的、格力等龙头企业共享供应商，拥有较新的工厂和较 高的自动化率及自制率，产能利用率高达 90%以上，通过国产化、平台 化、通用化整合，提高了整体研发、制造和供应链效率，具备成本优势。 Q&A 铜价上涨对奥克斯电器成本构成压力。公司通过锁定外销订单总价并进 行锁铜套保来确保毛利，内销部分则通过价格传导至市场。2025 年铜 价上涨已反映在 ...

海信家电 20251126 摘要 国内大家电市场受补贴政策影响，虽 2025 年同比数据下滑，但隔年比 正常，预计 2026 年国补政策延续，细节或调整，关注政策变化对市场 的影响。 海信家电海外业务受特朗普关税影响呈前高后低，但总体乐观，新兴市 场渗透率提升，成熟市场基本盘稳定，预计未来三年外销收入增长超 10%。 中央空调业务面临地产后周期挑战，但 C 端和公建渠道带来增量，海信 日立拓展大型冷水机组市场，加快海外业务发展，并推进与美的战略合 作。 欧洲热泵市场经历去库存后进入恢复性增长阶段，仍具潜力。海信家电 将加大海外市场投入，提升自主品牌影响力，加快新兴市场布局。 长沙水机工厂投产后，预计未来 3-5 年每年收入增长约 20%，2026 年 国内市场份额预计每年提升一个百分点或略高，逐步夺取外资品牌份额。 海信和约克品牌占比提升对中央空调业务毛利率有压力，但各品牌利润 率维持或提升，预计整体净利率维持在 16%左右，2026 年仍保持这一 预期。 科龙计划削减 50%以上 SKU，以提高运营效率，实现盈亏平衡，并逐 步提升利润率。预计 2026 年内销收入增速为中个位数左右，而业绩增 速则可能达到双 ...

一线城市二手房价格下跌幅度超全国平均水平，对市场信心造成负面影 响。尽管上半年房地产市场总体稳定，但三季度以来价格加速下行，70 城二手房价格环比下降加剧市场担忧。 行政性放松政策未能扭转颓势，降低房贷利率是主要期待。2025 年 LPR 仅小幅下降，银行净息差压力限制让利空间，财政贴息或能减轻居 民购房负担，但成本取决于贴息力度和年限。 若实施按揭贷款利率贴息，预计每年成本 500-600 亿元，基于 15 万亿 销售额和 60%首付比例，新增按揭贷款规模约 6 万亿元，扣除公积金贷 款后商业银行贷款 5 万亿元，100 个基点贴息。 对房地产股市持乐观态度，政策推进将提升市场容忍度，增加新旧住房 交易流动性，改善上市公司业绩。关注香港地产、商业地产及具备困境 反转潜力的公司，这些公司负债压力小、现金流充裕且估值便宜。 贝壳找房受一线城市价格下行影响，但经纪业务弹性较早显现。2026 年利润率提升主要因素包括经纪业务人效提升、AI 技术应用（预计每年 带来 2-3 个百分点经营利润率增长）以及家装和租赁业务利润释放。 地产链：扭转预期，需要踏出那一步 20251120 摘要 Q&A 近期房地产市场的整体表现 ...

以下文章来源于界面新闻 ，作者李家琦 界面新闻 . 界面新闻是上海报业集团主管主办，中国具有影响力的原创财经新媒体，只服务于独立思考的人群 11月21日，界面新闻获悉，美的近期不再允许售后服务商同时接小米或格力的业务合作，该政策由中国区经各区域负责人单独向合作商传 达， 涉及小米、格力等其他品牌的空调售后及安装维修。 对此消息，美的公关回应称不清楚此事。 多位小米经销商对界面新闻确认了此事。经销商们表示，空调售后主要是安装，小米目前有送装一体和先送后装两种选择，让售后服务 商"二选一" 会减少小米对线下服务商的绑定， 仍有第三方合作商可以选择，只要不乱收费不会对空调服务有太大影响。 一位美的中国区员工告诉界面新闻，此次政策主要针对的是小米，今年小米空调的大卖让美的感受到了威胁，10月份下发了该通知。 区别于汽车、3C行业，美的格力等传统家电厂商在市场份额上有接近"垄断性"优势，这也就意味着美的、格力对售后商有足够的影响力， 目前其所在区域的头部几家合作商都已经结束了和小米的合作。 在该员工看来，对于家电售后体系尚不成熟的小米而言，此举是"打在了七寸上"，小米大家电当下的关键是如何在快速爆量之前搭建好专业 的售 ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi Group's Q3 2025 financial results show a total revenue of 113.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, and an adjusted net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 81%, marking a historical high [2][3] - The company successfully transitioned from traditional smartphone business to new growth engines, particularly in smart electric vehicles and AI, which achieved quarterly profitability for the first time [2][3] - The smartphone segment is under pressure due to rising memory costs, impacting gross margins, while the company is focusing on high-end strategies to enhance product structure and resilience [2][4] Financial Performance - Xiaomi's revenue from innovative businesses, including smart electric vehicles and AI, reached 29 billion yuan, accounting for 25.6% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 25.5% and a profit of 700 million yuan in the quarter [3][4] - The smartphone business saw a shipment of 43.3 million units, generating revenue of 45.969 billion yuan, with a gross margin dropping to 11.1% due to supply chain cost pressures [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - Xiaomi is implementing three core strategies to build long-term competitiveness: increasing R&D investment, advancing high-end strategies, and exploring new growth opportunities in global markets [2][3] - The company plans to enhance its R&D capabilities, with Q3 spending reaching 9.1 billion yuan, a 52.1% increase year-on-year, and total R&D investment expected to exceed 30 billion yuan for the year [8][9] Market Trends - The current memory price increase is driven by strong demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) from AI applications, differing from previous cycles driven by mobile and laptop demand [4] - Xiaomi's IoT business generated 27.6 billion yuan in revenue, maintaining growth for seven consecutive quarters, with a gross margin of 23.9% [5][6] Operational Developments - Xiaomi has expanded its automotive sales network, with 402 stores in 119 cities in mainland China, and aims to deliver 350,000 vehicles by the end of the year [3][6] - The company has launched a new smart appliance factory in Wuhan, enhancing its production capabilities and supporting its high-end strategy [6][9] Challenges and Outlook - Despite achieving profitability in the automotive sector, challenges remain, including reduced purchase tax subsidies and increased competition expected in 2026 [9] - The smartphone segment faces ongoing pressure from rising memory costs, while the IoT business must navigate a competitive landscape and potential price wars [9]

Core Insights - The "4th Su Xin Consumption Home Appliance and Home Decoration Shopping Season" was launched in Nanjing, focusing on the theme "AI Restructuring, Butterfly Change, Win-Win" to explore transformation paths for the home appliance industry in the AI era [1] - The event aims to stimulate year-end consumer potential through various subsidies and discounts, particularly targeting the autumn and winter home appliance consumption peak [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was guided by the Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce and involved major companies like JD Electronics and A.O. Smith, emphasizing green and smart home appliance consumption trends [1][2] - A total investment of over 300 million yuan was announced by JD Electronics to support the old-for-new exchange program, with an average discount of over 30% [2] Group 2: Marketing and Consumer Engagement - The shopping season features a multi-channel marketing approach, including a launch ceremony, large-scale special events, community actions, and various promotional activities [2] - JD MALL is creating immersive shopping experiences with dedicated areas for laundry care, smart home displays, and climate customization, enhancing consumer engagement [3] Group 3: Industry Insights and AI Empowerment - The Innovation Integration Annual Conference highlighted AI's role in transforming the retail landscape, with industry leaders sharing insights on market trends and consumer behavior [4] - Discussions focused on the shift from functional satisfaction to emotional resonance in consumer preferences, emphasizing the importance of scenario creation and interaction [5]

Investment Rating - Initiate with OUTPERFORM rating [2] Core Views - The company has a well-established product layout in air conditioning, with flexible capacity management effectively controlling risks [3] - The implementation of a new retail model in the Chinese market enhances channel efficiency [4] - The company is advancing its ODM and OBM strategies in overseas markets, with expectations for global market share growth [5] - The company is poised for steady revenue and profit growth due to strong domestic and international performance [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Steady Revenue and Profit Growth - The company has over 30 years of experience in the air conditioning sector, achieving revenue of RMB 195.3 billion, RMB 248.3 billion, and RMB 297.6 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.4% [12] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 93.52 billion and a net profit of RMB 9.25 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 27% and 23% respectively [12] Section 2: Comprehensive Product Layout and Efficient Channel Operations - The company has established four major manufacturing bases, with a capacity utilization rate of 91.3% for home air conditioners and 90.6% for central air conditioners as of 2024 [21] - The new retail model has effectively integrated online and offline channels, enhancing overall efficiency and enabling better management of retail prices [32] Section 3: Global Market Growth Potential - The global air conditioning market is expected to grow, with household and central air conditioning sales projected to reach 193 million and 69 million units respectively by 2024 [35] - The company has expanded its overseas presence to over 150 countries, with significant growth in both OBM and ODM revenues [28] Section 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation Comparison - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% from 2025 to 2027, with an expected dividend yield exceeding 10% in 2025 [7] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 1.96, RMB 2.14, and RMB 2.45 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 9%, and 14% [7][55]

Summary of Hisense Home Appliances Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hisense Home Appliances - **Industry**: Home Appliances, specifically focusing on white goods like refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioning systems Key Points and Arguments Revenue Growth Challenges - Fourth-quarter revenue growth is facing challenges, with domestic sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines under pressure due to high base effects [2][3] - Positive growth is expected in overseas orders for refrigerators and washing machines, while processing orders are anticipated to recover gradually by the end of December [2][4] Market Demand and Strategy - Demand in the European and American markets is stable, with Hisense steadily increasing its market share [2][7] - Emerging markets show potential for growth but are subject to significant volatility [2][7] - The company aims to enhance the price index of white goods to compete with brands like Samsung, leveraging superior manufacturing and production capabilities [2][9][10] Central Air Conditioning Business - The export of central air conditioning systems is slowing due to the impact of the European market, with plans to expand into the Middle East, Africa, and ASEAN markets [2][11] - A focus on promoting water system central air conditioning and improving self-manufacturing capabilities for core components is planned for next year [2][11] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs have a minimal overall impact on Hisense, with the U.S. business maintaining a slight profit margin [2][11] - Future pricing may fluctuate with costs and tariffs, but improvements in sales structure are expected to enhance overall average prices [2][11] Domestic Sales Performance - The performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival was average, attributed to a high base from the previous year [2][12] - High-end models received some promotional support, although the impact was not substantial [2][12][14] Profitability Insights - External sales profit margins are expected to improve, while domestic profit margins are relatively low [2][15] - The company is focusing on cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and structural enhancements to optimize expense ratios [2][15] Store Expansion Plans - Hisense has reached approximately 10,000 specialty stores and plans to steadily expand next year, targeting an increase of several hundred to 1,000 new stores [2][16] - The majority of stores are performing well, with a focus on improving profitability in lower-performing channels [2][16] Online vs. Offline Sales - Offline sales have higher profit margins compared to online sales, which account for about 40% of domestic sales [2][17] Competitive Landscape - The domestic market is expected to remain competitive, with new entrants like Xiaomi intensifying competition [2][18] - The company aims to enhance product efficiency and profitability to counter price wars [2][18] Water Machine Business - Hisense's water machine business is focused on the B-end market, with significant potential for domestic replacement [2][26] - The goal is to increase market share to double digits within two to three years, currently holding a single-digit share [2][26] Future Outlook - The central air conditioning business is expected to return to growth, albeit at a modest rate, with a focus on product type diversification and channel expansion [2][20] - The company is optimistic about the long-term demand in emerging markets, driven by economic growth and changing consumer attitudes [2][7] SKU Reduction Strategy - The SKU reduction process for the Kelon brand is ongoing, aiming to improve efficiency and profitability [2][27] South America Market Strategy - In South America, Hisense plans to leverage sports marketing, particularly around the upcoming World Cup, to enhance brand visibility and market share [2][28] New Product Launches - The introduction of new heat pump products has shown improved order intake, although their contribution to overall revenue remains limited [2][29] Legal and Regulatory Considerations - Ongoing discussions regarding the rights protection base plan are influenced by macroeconomic and industry uncertainties [2][30]

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) is being held from November 5 to 10 at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, with over 500 participants from the Jiading District's investment promotion team engaging in targeted招商活动 [1] - As of November 7, the Jiading District team has connected with 377 enterprises, establishing deep ties with quality companies such as Polylactide Technology, AOS (China), and Medtronic [1] - The Zhejiang trading group signed 24 import procurement agreements with suppliers from 14 countries, covering advanced equipment, energy resources, and agricultural products, with a total contract value of approximately 14.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Dian Diagnostics, a participant in the Zhejiang trading group, signed a procurement contract with Roche Diagnostics for laboratory reagent consumables and is focusing on AI-assisted diagnostic fields [2] - The Jiangsu provincial state-owned enterprise Suhao Holdings signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for central air conditioning products, with a procurement amount of 50 million USD [2][3] - The Yangpu trading group in Shanghai signed contracts covering consumer goods, food, art, new materials, and medical devices, with a significant increase in intended transaction amounts [3] Group 3 - The "China-Central Asia Trade Smooth Cooperation Platform Promotion Conference" was held, where Kazakhstan's Akmolinsk region signed an investment development center agreement with Jiangsu Province [5] - The Jiading District's investment promotion event showcased its automotive industry, reporting a total automotive output exceeding 490 billion yuan and over 1,240 industry chain enterprises [6] - The Pudong New Area's Lin-gang New Area signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing's Changping District, focusing on cross-border and international resource integration [6][7] Group 4 - Ningbo City in Zhejiang Province hosted a roundtable for multinational corporate executives, resulting in four investment cooperation intentions in AI, health care, and biomedicine [7]

Core Viewpoint - Hisense Home Appliances reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025, with a notable decline in Q3 net profit compared to the previous year [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 71.533 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.812 billion yuan, up 0.67% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 22.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.16%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 735 million yuan, down 5.40% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 2: Business Segments - The home air conditioning segment is expected to show slight growth in Q3 2025, primarily driven by domestic sales, while external sales are anticipated to decline due to uncertainties in overseas demand [2]. - The central air conditioning business may experience a year-on-year decline due to the impact of the real estate sector, while the ice and washing segments are expected to perform well in both domestic and international markets [2]. Group 3: Profitability and Costs - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 increased by 0.20 percentage points to 20.20% year-on-year, influenced by competitive pressures in the domestic air conditioning market and a decline in high-margin central air conditioning business [3]. - The company faced increased sales expenses due to intensified competition in the domestic market, while other expense categories remained relatively stable [3]. Group 4: Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, supported by the performance of the home air conditioning and ice washing segments, with expectations for improved external sales and ongoing adjustments in the HVAC business strategy [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.404 billion, 3.745 billion, and 4.149 billion yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 10.5, 9.5, and 8.6 times, respectively [4].