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信用半月谈第二期:增值税新规实施月余,金融债新老券如何定价?
Group 1 - The report focuses on the impact of the new VAT regulations on the pricing and investment of financial bonds, particularly after the implementation on August 8, 2025 [7][8][20] - Different types of institutions are affected differently by the new VAT regulations, with the order of impact being: proprietary trading of financial institutions > public funds > other asset management products > qualified foreign investors [8][9][11] - The comprehensive tax rate increase for interest income post-regulation is as follows: proprietary trading of financial institutions (4.75%) > public funds (3.26%) > other asset management products (2.45%) > qualified foreign investors (0%) [9][11] Group 2 - The static impact of the new VAT regulations indicates that the effect on proprietary trading of financial institutions is greater than on asset management products, with a potential decrease in after-tax yields of 4-10 basis points (BP) [14][16] - For financial bonds with the same nominal yield, the required increase in nominal yield to achieve the same after-tax yield ranges from 5-15 BP, with proprietary trading needing 11-15 BP and asset management products needing 5-7 BP [14][16] - The report notes that the new bonds issued after the VAT regulation generally have higher coupon rates compared to comparable existing bonds, reflecting a yield compensation due to the new tax [20][21] Group 3 - Since the implementation of the new VAT regulations, a total of 226 new financial bonds have been issued, amounting to 720.4 billion yuan, with the majority being ordinary bonds from securities firms [20][21] - The report highlights that the pricing of new and old bonds is still in the discovery phase, with recent trends showing that the yield spread between new and old bonds varies across different types of financial bonds [20][21] - Investors are advised to consider the cost-effectiveness of older bonds compared to new issues, particularly in the context of AAA/AAA- rated ordinary bonds from securities firms [20][21]
点评报告:票息为盾,提前“卡位”利差压缩行情
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-12 02:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a volatile bond market and a passive widening of credit spreads, investors should prioritize high - coupon assets for certain returns and prepare in advance for the spread compression market driven by the seasonal inflow of wealth management funds in July [1][5]. - The current core contradiction in the credit bond market is the co - existence of weakening allocation demand and a passive widening of spreads in a volatile environment. Investors should seize pricing deviation opportunities under the protection of coupon safety cushions [5]. - The volatile market pattern caused by the interplay of multiple factors will continue, providing tactical opportunities for layout during market adjustments [6]. - The coupon strategy is the optimal solution in a volatile market, and portfolios should be constructed in a stratified manner according to the characteristics of liabilities [7]. - Investors should "pre - position" for the seasonal spread compression market in July and seize structural opportunities in specific bond varieties [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Yield and Spread Overview 3.1.1 Yields and Changes of Each Tenor - Yields of various types of bonds at different tenors are presented, along with their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For example, the 0.5 - year Treasury yield is 1.41%, down 4.0bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 8.4% [14]. 3.1.2 Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor - Credit spreads of various types of bonds at different tenors are shown, including their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 25bp, up 2.1bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 12.7% [16]. 3.2 Yields and Spreads of Credit Bonds by Category (Hermite Algorithm) 3.2.1 Yields and Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds by Region - **Yields and Changes of Each Tenor**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.77%, up 2.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 1.1% [19]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are given. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 30.41bp, up 4.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 7.2% [22]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are presented. For example, the AAA - rated yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 5.1% [26]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are shown. For example, the AAA - rated credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 28.96bp, up 4.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 32.2% [31]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Administrative Level**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at each administrative level, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the provincial - level yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.5bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 3.7% [35].