| 指数 涨跌（％） | | --- | | 名称 | | 上证指数 3635 -0.12 3.94 2.11 | | 深证综指 2220 -0.2 5.6 2.05 | | 风格指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 -0.27 | 2.66 | 5.54 | | 中盘指数 | 4.83 | 5.07 | | 小盘指数 -0.48 | 7.03 - | 11.02 | | 涨幅居卸 行业(%) | 바람들 | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水泥 | 3.04 | 16.01 | 18.61 | | 风申设备工 | 2.74 | 4.79 | 19.59 | | 工程机械工 | 2.56 | 11.28 | 18.86 | | 摩托车及其 lih | 1.98 | 7.42 | 23.05 | | 特钢工 | 1.92 | 8.64 | 15.09 | | 跌幅居卸 行业(%) | HEF | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | 软件开发Ⅱ -3.06 | | 5.06 | 0.57 | | IT 服务Ⅱ -2.58 | | 5 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The potential tax rate for bond interest under the new VAT regulations is expected to be significantly lower than 6%, with estimates ranging from 0.7% to 3.2% for various bond types [11][2][10] - The implementation of the new VAT regulations may lead to a stable fiscal revenue of approximately 230 billion RMB, while also increasing interest costs [11] - The bond market may experience short-term support, but medium-term challenges are anticipated, particularly from August to October [11] Group 2: Zhongshan Public Utilities (000685) - Zhongshan Public Utilities is a public utility platform under the Zhongshan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on water, solid waste, and renewable energy sectors [12][14] - The company has a water supply capacity of 2.65 million tons per day, with a market share of 94%, and is expected to increase net profit by 10%-15% following a potential 20%-30% water price adjustment [12][14] - The company holds a 10.55% stake in GF Securities, which is a significant source of profit, with projected net profits of 11.99 billion RMB in 2024, primarily from investment income [12][14] Group 3: New Tibet Railway Company - The establishment of the New Tibet Railway Company, with a registered capital of 95 billion RMB, aims to accelerate the construction of the New Tibet Railway, which has been planned for years [13][25] - The railway project is expected to generate substantial demand for engineering machinery and rail transit equipment, benefiting companies like China Railway and Sany Heavy Industry [26][25] - The total investment for the New Tibet Railway is projected to exceed 300 billion RMB, reflecting the significant scale and complexity of the project [27][25]

2025 年 8 月 4 星期一 主流券商债市观点汇总 | 券商 | 主要观点 | 判断逻辑 日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 7 | 月 PMI 数据有所回落，但企业预期进一步好转，伴随着"反内 | | | | 卷"等中期逻辑短期化发酵影响，利率或仍在震荡期。对于债市 | | | | 而言：1）长端利率债或有超跌反弹机会，但 10 年国债收益率下 | | | 利率或仍在震荡期， | 破前低或需新一轮降准降息等条件催化，目前来看节奏或推迟， | | | 长端利率债或有超跌 | 债券赔率收窄、机构交易拥挤、政策预期抬升的背景下，未来 1-2 | | 申万 | 反弹机会，未来 1-2 | 个月 10 年国债可能在 1.65%-1.80%之间运行。2）债券市场的真正 | | 宏源 | 个月 10 年国债可能 | 压力可能不在 2025Q3，8-9 月或是政府债供给高峰，货币配合财 | | | 在 1.65%-1.80%之间 | 政背景下，流动性难紧，若债券市场调整加剧，央行可能重启买 | | | 运行。 | 债。3）三四季度交际可能是需要注意的风险窗口，2025Q4 政府 | | | | 债供 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **bond market** and **government debt** supply dynamics in China, along with implications for the **equity market** and **credit bonds**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Government Debt Supply**: The net financing scale of government bonds in Q3 is expected to reach **4.08 trillion yuan**, which may exert pressure on the bond market due to seasonal supply increases [1][4]. 2. **10-Year Treasury Yield**: The 10-year treasury yield is anticipated to be at **1.6%** as a bottom, with a breakthrough in the second half of the year being difficult. The upper limit is projected between **1.8% and 1.9%** [1][6]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The bond market is influenced by various factors including redemption risks, tariff negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and stock market volatility, which add uncertainty to demand [1][5][6]. 4. **Stock Market Influence**: Short-term stock market fluctuations have limited impact on the bond market, but the long-term attractiveness of equities is increasing. A shift in focus from bearish to long-term opportunities in the stock market is recommended [1][7][8]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: A strategy of flexible trading and wave operations is advised for Q3 due to expected volatility. The focus should be on equities rather than relying solely on the bond market, which may see reduced returns and increased volatility [1][9]. 6. **Tax Policy Impact**: The new VAT regulations are expected to have a short-term impact on the bond market, favoring older bonds and benefiting ordinary credit bonds and deposits [1][11]. 7. **Credit Bond Market**: The credit bond market is expected to have more opportunities than risks in August, with a focus on the performance of the stock market as a key variable [1][28]. 8. **Market Disturbances**: Key disturbances in the market include policy changes, stock market volatility, and significant events such as military parades and political meetings, which may affect market sentiment [1][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **PPI Forecast**: A slight upward adjustment in PPI to around **-3.2%** is predicted for July, with potential recovery in August and September depending on demand-side support [1][18]. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: Notable investment opportunities include sectors like **robotics**, **AI**, **military**, and **pharmaceuticals**, which are expected to show structural growth [1][14]. 3. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The economic outlook for Q3 remains resilient, but Q4 will require close monitoring of income and internal demand dynamics [1][22]. 4. **Credit ETF Performance**: Recent performance of credit ETFs showed a rebound after a period of adjustment, indicating potential recovery in investor sentiment [1][30]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the bond market's current state, future expectations, and strategic recommendations for investors.

税收新规对债券定价的影响多大？ 证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 03 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com ——国债等利息收入增值税新规点评 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 8 月 8 日之后新发的政府债券及金融债利息收入将恢复征收增值税。投资人在债券 投资过程中面临的税种主要包括增值税、所得税两类，应税项目主要分为债券转让 差价收入、持有期间利息收入。本次政策调整为对 2025 年 8 月 8 号之后新发的政 府债券及金融债利息收入恢复征收增值税，新老划断，且不涉及所得税征收政策的 变更，也不涉及债券转让收入的税收政策变更。 联系人 政府债券及金融债利息收入此前免增值税。本次税收新规前，一般金融机构在金融 商品持有期间（含到期）利息收入按 6%税率缴纳增值税，资管产品、公募基金对于 利息收入适用简易计税方法，按照 3%的税率缴纳增值税。国债、地方政府债、 ...