医美价格受多重因素影响 随着增值税法及其实施条例在今年起实施，医美行业此前部分业务享受免税优惠将成为历史。 《中华人民共和国增值税法》和《中华人民共和国增值税法实施条例》自2026年1月1日起施行。其中， 增值税法在税收优惠一章中，明确了"医疗机构提供的医疗服务"免征增值税。增值税法实施条例将前 述"医疗机构"定义为"依据有关规定设立的具有医疗机构执业资格的机构，包括军队、武警部队各级各 类医疗机构，不包括营利性美容医疗机构。"。 第一财经记者从税务总局北京市税务局12366纳税缴费服务热线处了解到，今年之前增值税相关规定 中，并没有将营利性美容医疗机构排除在上述免税政策范围外。而从今年开始，只要是营利性美容医疗 机构，将不再享受上述免征增值税优惠政策。 上海国家会计学院副教授葛玉御告诉第一财经，在此前增值税制度下，国家对医疗机构提供的符合规定 的医疗服务给予免征增值税优惠政策，但并没有排除医美机构和医美服务。因此不少医美机构符合条件 医疗服务实际享受了免税优惠政策，而这在实务中存在争议。而今年起实施的增值税实施条例解决这一 争议，明确营利性医美机构不再享受上述免征增值税优惠政策，需要依法纳税。 所谓美容医疗 ...

2026.01. 02 本文字数：2296，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 增值税法今年起施行。随着相关细则明晰，此前一些企业等借制度漏洞偷税的低成本时代，将成为过 去式。 葛玉御表示，这一制度漏洞之下补税成本低，即便在互联网平台企业涉税信息报送实施之后，很 多"小电商"隐匿所得被发现，还有涉税"黑中介"教唆他们，"你们就藏（收入），等税务局查，补税也 补不了几个钱的！" 今年起增值税一系列法规实施，将堵住这一制度漏洞。 今年起实施的《增值税法实施条例》明确，除本条例另有规定外，单位和个体工商户年应征增值税销 售额超过小规模纳税人标准的，应当向主管税务机关办理一般纳税人登记，并自超过小规模纳税人标 准的当期起按照一般计税方法计算缴纳增值税。 2026年1月1日，国家税务总局公布《关于增值税一般纳税人登记管理有关事项的公告》（下称《公 告》），其中一大变化是修改了此前的"年应征增值税销售额"定义和"一般纳税人生效日期"，这将带 来较大影响。 上海国家会计学院副教授葛玉御告诉第一财经，以前一些增值税小规模纳税人钻制度漏洞，即便隐匿 所得超过500万元，被查出来后，只需要按照最低1%的征收率去补税， ...

Core Viewpoint - The new VAT regulation on gold in China has officially come into effect, significantly impacting retail jewelers and non-exchange member companies, leading to a sharp decline in stock prices of major gold retailers and a drop in spot gold prices [1][3]. Summary by Sections New VAT Regulation - The new regulation, effective from November 1, 2023, allows only members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange to sell standard gold without VAT. Non-member companies must pay VAT, which has been reduced from 13% to 6% for non-investment gold products [5][11]. - This policy is set to last until the end of 2027 and aims to encourage purchases from exchange members, reducing off-the-books transactions [5][11]. Impact on Retailers - Retailers are expected to face increased costs, with estimates suggesting a potential 7% rise in costs that may be passed on to consumers through price increases [3][4]. - Different jewelers will experience varying levels of impact, with Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook being more vulnerable due to their business models and inventory turnover rates [6][7]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, stocks of major gold retailers such as Lao Poo Gold and Chow Tai Fook saw significant declines, with Lao Poo Gold dropping over 9% and Chow Tai Fook falling by 12% [1][2]. - Spot gold prices also fell, briefly dipping below $4,000 to $3,970 per ounce [1]. Demand and Pricing Dynamics - The demand for weight-based gold jewelry is expected to be more adversely affected due to consumer price sensitivity, while fixed-price gold jewelry may see less impact [8]. - Analysts predict that brands will likely increase retail prices to offset the new costs, which could lead to a notable demand shock in the mass market [8]. Broader Market Implications - The changes in tax policy are anticipated to affect global gold market sentiment, given China's status as the largest gold consumer [4][11]. - Despite recent price corrections, the fundamentals supporting gold prices, such as central bank demand and investor interest in safe-haven assets, are expected to remain strong [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent regulatory changes in China regarding VAT deductions on gold have led to significant market reactions, with major gold retailers experiencing sharp declines in stock prices and a drop in spot gold prices below $4000 per ounce [1][6]. Regulatory Changes - The new regulation, effective from November 1, 2023, restricts VAT deductions for non-investment gold producers to 6%, down from the previous 13%, impacting the cost structure for companies involved in jewelry and electronic gold production [6][7]. - The policy is expected to last until the end of 2027 and aims to encourage transactions through exchange members, thereby increasing market transparency and allowing better tracking of trade volumes [15][16]. Market Impact - Major retailers like Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook have seen their stock prices drop significantly, with Lao Feng Xiang falling over 9% and Chow Tai Fook dropping 12% [1][2]. - Analysts predict that the increased costs will likely be passed on to consumers through higher retail prices, particularly affecting weight-based gold jewelry, which is more sensitive to price changes [3][10]. Company-Specific Analysis - Different jewelry brands will experience varying levels of impact from the new VAT regulations. Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook are expected to be more resilient due to their market positioning and inventory management [8][9]. - Companies with a higher exposure to lower-tier cities and lower profit margins are likely to face greater challenges, while those focused on high-end markets may fare better [8][9]. Consumer Behavior - The demand for weight-based gold jewelry is anticipated to decline as consumers react to price increases, while fixed-price gold jewelry may be less affected [9][10]. - Sales of gold bars on e-commerce platforms have already reflected the additional tax burden, with prices exceeding 1000 RMB per gram, compared to a baseline of around 900 RMB [11]. Gold Market Fundamentals - Despite recent price corrections, the fundamentals supporting gold prices remain strong, with ongoing demand from central banks and investors seeking safe-haven assets [13][12]. - The new regulations are expected to enhance the role of exchanges and the Shanghai benchmark price in the gold procurement process in China [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report conducts a preliminary exploration of the pricing rules of secondary and perpetual bonds (referred to as "two - perpetual bonds") issued by state - owned large - scale banks and their association with institutional behaviors. It analyzes the influence of the new VAT regulation on the pricing of new and old bonds, the pricing rules in the primary and secondary markets, and potential trading opportunities [2][11]. Group 1: Bank Sub - debt Subtle Clues - The new VAT regulation took effect on August 8th, dividing the interest income of bonds into taxable and tax - exempt based on the issuance time. To make the after - tax yields of new and old bonds of the same variety with similar remaining maturities and issued by the same entity equal, the coupon rate of new bonds should be higher than that of old bonds. For general financial institutions, the pre - tax yield ratio of new and old bonds should be around 1.068; for asset management institutions, this ratio is 1.034 [2][11]. - After August 8th, three new two - perpetual bonds were issued by large - scale banks. The ratio of the coupon rate to the issuance - day valuation of 5 + 5 - year and 10 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds is 1.035 and 1.071 respectively, indicating that the 10 + 5 - year variety contains more tax cost compensation. The difference between the coupon rate and the valuation of 5 + N - year bank perpetual bonds is only 0.01bp, showing that the tax cost compensation in the pricing of perpetual bonds is not significant [2][15]. - The pricing of new two - perpetual bonds is related to the subscription power of institutions participating in the primary market. For 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds, large - scale and city commercial banks' self - operations are net sellers on the first active trading day, while joint - stock banks, funds, and other product categories are net buyers. For 10 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds, city commercial banks, joint - stock banks, and securities self - operations are net sellers, and insurance, funds, and other product categories are net buyers. For bank perpetual bonds, large - scale, joint - stock, city commercial, and rural commercial banks are net sellers, and other product categories, funds, and insurance are net buyers [18][24][32]. Group 2: Review of Two - perpetual Bond Pricing Rules - The pricing logic of new bonds in the cash market is dominated by trading desks. For 5 - year large - scale bank secondary capital bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds is generally between 1.03 and 1.04 and shows an upward trend. The slow decline in the valuation of new bonds is due to the immature pricing mechanism after the implementation of the new VAT regulation, which makes investors prefer old bonds [4][42]. - For 10 - year large - scale bank secondary capital bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds is concentrated between 1.028 and 1.038 and has decreased significantly compared to the initial listing. After the holiday, the ratio has rebounded, affected by the lower liquidity of new bonds and the increased profit - taking by bank self - operations. The continuous buying by insurance indicates that ultra - long - term secondary bonds still need to stabilize [4][48]. - For large - scale bank perpetual bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds fluctuates between 1.015 and 1.022. It is lower than that of secondary capital bonds because the trading volume of bank self - operations and other institutions is relatively small, and the liquidity of perpetual bonds is poor. When funds net - buy new perpetual bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds increases; when the selling volume of funds increases, the yield ratio decreases, indicating that new perpetual bonds have better defensive properties [5][55]. Group 3: Some Thoughts on Trading Opportunities - The yield of 5 - year large - scale bank secondary capital bonds fluctuates around the spread range of 10 - year treasury bonds. When the yield breaks through the upper limit of 10 - year treasury bonds + 30bp, the probability of a subsequent rebound increases; when it breaks through the lower limit of treasury bonds + 20bp, the probability of a subsequent correction rises. However, the new bonds issued after August 8th may be affected by the VAT on interest income, which may interfere with the effectiveness of the signal [64]. - One way to deal with new bonds is to convert the yield of new secondary capital bonds through the yield ratio of comparable new and old bonds, but its effectiveness is difficult to verify. Another way is to construct a new rotation signal using new 5 - year secondary capital bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds. The new bond combination will indicate an oversold rebound later and an over - bought defense earlier compared to the initial signal. Institutions with a lower VAT rate can obtain excess tax compensation by investing in new bonds with higher tax compensation [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - This section is not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Q4 credit spreads may continue to fluctuate and adjust, with greater potential pressure on the long - end [7]. - It is recommended to control duration for credit bonds, and short - end sinking and carry strategies are preferable [7]. - For financial bonds, pay attention to participation opportunities in new - bond price discovery, and the trading difficulty of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is increasing [7]. - For general credit bonds, use short - duration as a shield and coupon as a spear to find structural opportunities [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Q3 Review: Supply Weak, Credit Follow - up Adjustment, Short - end Superior 3.1.1 Primary Market - In 2025Q3, the issuance and net supply of traditional credit bonds decreased slightly. The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds decreased, while those of urban investment bonds increased. The issuance and net financing of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased significantly, and the net financing of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds turned negative [15][20]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - In Q3, credit bonds followed the adjustment of interest - rate bonds but did not over - adjust. The short - end performed better than the long - end. Yields generally increased, credit spreads at the 1 - year term narrowed, and those at the medium - and long - terms generally widened. Short - end rating spreads mostly widened, and medium - and long - end spreads narrowed. Term spreads generally widened, and the holding - period yield of the 1 - year term remained positive [25][28][36]. 3.2 How to Evaluate the Spread Pricing of Various Products after the New VAT Regulations? 3.2.1 Impact of ChinaBond Valuation on Spread Calculation - Since August 8, 2025, the restoration of VAT on the interest income of government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds has different impacts on different institutions. The impact order is financial institutions' self - operation > public funds > other asset management products > qualified overseas investors [43]. - The compilation arrangement of ChinaBond bond valuation and yield curve during the transition period may affect the calculation results of credit spreads and term spreads [47]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - When new government - development bonds are issued, the credit spread center of general credit bonds may shift downward systematically, and the situation of financial bonds may be more complex. To eliminate the impact of VAT, adjustments can be made through the new - old bond spread of financial bonds [51][54]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads - When new financial bonds are issued, the term spread center of the corresponding new - issue term may increase in the short term and remain at a high level. To eliminate the impact of VAT, adjustments can be made through the new - old bond spread of financial bonds [57]. 3.3 Perspective of Institutional Behavior: Pay Attention to the Impact of Chip Switching on the Credit Bond Market 3.3.1 Public Funds - Due to the comparison of various asset classes and the new public fund fee regulations, the liability side of off - exchange bond funds faces significant challenges. The stock growth rate and proportion of bond - type funds have declined since July 2025, and funds may flow to bond ETFs, wealth management products, and special - account entrusted products. The demand structure of credit bonds may be reshaped [69][72]. 3.3.2 Wealth Management Products - Near the end - of - year regulatory deadline for net - value smoothing rectification, wealth management products face greater valuation fluctuations and may be more cautious in bond - allocation behavior. Although their liquidity management ability has been enhanced, the real liquidity of credit bond ETFs may not meet their needs. In the short term, the expansion of wealth management scale faces pressure, but in the long term, the new public fund fee regulations may be beneficial to the expansion of wealth management scale [5]. 3.3.3 Changes in Credit Bond Allocation Behavior of Various Institutions - Recently, the chip - switching feature of credit bonds is obvious. The buying power of public funds has weakened, while wealth management products have become a stabilizer for credit bonds. Insurance has stronger demand support, and rural commercial banks prefer general credit bonds. Long - term credit may face re - pricing [5]. 3.4 Q4 Outlook: Pressure Remains, Short - end as Shield and Coupon as Spear - Credit spreads may continue to fluctuate and adjust in Q4, with greater potential pressure on the long - end. It is recommended to control duration, and short - end sinking and carry strategies are preferable. For financial bonds, pay attention to new - bond price discovery opportunities, and be cautious about Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. For general credit bonds, look for structural opportunities in the primary market, urban investment bonds, high - grade private and perpetual bonds, and based on credit bond ETFs [7].

Group 1 - The report focuses on the impact of the new VAT regulations on the pricing and investment of financial bonds, particularly after the implementation on August 8, 2025 [7][8][20] - Different types of institutions are affected differently by the new VAT regulations, with the order of impact being: proprietary trading of financial institutions > public funds > other asset management products > qualified foreign investors [8][9][11] - The comprehensive tax rate increase for interest income post-regulation is as follows: proprietary trading of financial institutions (4.75%) > public funds (3.26%) > other asset management products (2.45%) > qualified foreign investors (0%) [9][11] Group 2 - The static impact of the new VAT regulations indicates that the effect on proprietary trading of financial institutions is greater than on asset management products, with a potential decrease in after-tax yields of 4-10 basis points (BP) [14][16] - For financial bonds with the same nominal yield, the required increase in nominal yield to achieve the same after-tax yield ranges from 5-15 BP, with proprietary trading needing 11-15 BP and asset management products needing 5-7 BP [14][16] - The report notes that the new bonds issued after the VAT regulation generally have higher coupon rates compared to comparable existing bonds, reflecting a yield compensation due to the new tax [20][21] Group 3 - Since the implementation of the new VAT regulations, a total of 226 new financial bonds have been issued, amounting to 720.4 billion yuan, with the majority being ordinary bonds from securities firms [20][21] - The report highlights that the pricing of new and old bonds is still in the discovery phase, with recent trends showing that the yield spread between new and old bonds varies across different types of financial bonds [20][21] - Investors are advised to consider the cost-effectiveness of older bonds compared to new issues, particularly in the context of AAA/AAA- rated ordinary bonds from securities firms [20][21]

Group 1: Key Insights on Zhongshan Public Utilities (000685) - Zhongshan Public Utilities is a public utility platform under the Zhongshan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on three main businesses: water services, solid waste management, and renewable energy [12][14] - The company has a water supply capacity of 2.65 million tons per day, with a market share of 94%. A potential water price adjustment of 20%-30% could increase net profit by approximately 120-180 million RMB, representing a 10%-15% increase compared to 2024 [12][14] - The solid waste management segment is expanding through acquisitions, with a projected capacity of 6,120 tons per day by 2025 [12][14] - The renewable energy segment is being developed through joint ventures and funds, with approximately 500 MWp of distributed solar power projects currently in operation or under construction [12][14] - The company holds a 10.55% stake in GF Securities, which is a significant source of profit. The estimated net profit for 2024 is 1.199 billion RMB, with investment income from GF Securities contributing 1.008 billion RMB, accounting for 84% of total profit [12][14] Group 2: Insights on New Tibet Railway Company - The New Tibet Railway Company was recently established with a registered capital of 95 billion RMB, fully owned by the China National Railway Group [13][25] - The railway project aims to create a convenient transportation route from Xinjiang to Tibet, covering approximately 2,000 kilometers and is expected to have a construction contract value of around 90.2 billion RMB [13][25] - The establishment of the New Tibet Railway Company is anticipated to accelerate the construction of the railway, which has been in planning since 2008 [13][25] - The project is expected to significantly increase demand for engineering machinery and rail transit equipment, benefiting companies such as XCMG, SANY, and China Railway Construction Corporation [26][25] Group 3: Insights on Bond Market and Tax Regulations - Following the new VAT regulations, the implied tax rate for bond interest is expected to be significantly lower than 6%, with estimates ranging from 0.7% to 3.2% for various types of bonds [11][9] - The bond market is anticipated to remain supported in the short term, but the potential for significant gains may be limited due to various market factors [11][9] - The government is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy to mitigate fiscal costs and enhance tax revenue effectiveness, which may provide short-term support for the bond market [11][9]

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The potential tax rate for bond interest under the new VAT regulations is expected to be significantly lower than 6%, with estimates ranging from 0.7% to 3.2% for various bond types [11][2][10] - The implementation of the new VAT regulations may lead to a stable fiscal revenue of approximately 230 billion RMB, while also increasing interest costs [11] - The bond market may experience short-term support, but medium-term challenges are anticipated, particularly from August to October [11] Group 2: Zhongshan Public Utilities (000685) - Zhongshan Public Utilities is a public utility platform under the Zhongshan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on water, solid waste, and renewable energy sectors [12][14] - The company has a water supply capacity of 2.65 million tons per day, with a market share of 94%, and is expected to increase net profit by 10%-15% following a potential 20%-30% water price adjustment [12][14] - The company holds a 10.55% stake in GF Securities, which is a significant source of profit, with projected net profits of 11.99 billion RMB in 2024, primarily from investment income [12][14] Group 3: New Tibet Railway Company - The establishment of the New Tibet Railway Company, with a registered capital of 95 billion RMB, aims to accelerate the construction of the New Tibet Railway, which has been planned for years [13][25] - The railway project is expected to generate substantial demand for engineering machinery and rail transit equipment, benefiting companies like China Railway and Sany Heavy Industry [26][25] - The total investment for the New Tibet Railway is projected to exceed 300 billion RMB, reflecting the significant scale and complexity of the project [27][25]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market in China, focusing on the impact of recent policy changes, particularly the adjustment of value-added tax (VAT) on bond investments and its implications for government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Expectations and Interest Rates** - The July PMI data showed a decline, but corporate expectations are improving, suggesting that interest rates may remain volatile. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.80% in the coming months [2][2][2]. 2. **Government Bond Supply and Monetary Policy** - The bond market may face significant pressure in August and September due to high government bond supply. If market adjustments worsen, the central bank may resume bond purchases to stabilize liquidity [2][2][2]. 3. **Impact of VAT on Bonds** - The new VAT policy will not affect existing bonds but may lead to increased demand for older bonds due to their tax advantages. This could push down the interest rates on these bonds, counteracting the tax impact on newly issued bonds [2][2][2]. 4. **Phased Repricing of New and Old Bonds** - The adjustment of VAT is expected to lead to a three-phase repricing of new and old bonds: - Phase 1: Narrowing of the spread as demand for older bonds increases - Phase 2: Widening of the spread due to reduced liquidity of older bonds - Phase 3: Long-term narrowing as tax benefits expire [5][5][5]. 5. **Market Volatility and Risk Factors** - The bond market is anticipated to remain volatile due to seasonal factors, government bond supply, and geopolitical uncertainties. The market is currently in a "hard mode" of trading, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize around 1.65% to 1.75% [3][3][3]. 6. **Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics** - Investors may shift their focus to older bonds due to the new tax regulations, which could lead to a temporary surge in demand for these securities. However, the overall sentiment remains cautious as the market adjusts to the new tax landscape [4][4][4]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Market Trends** - The bond market's recovery is contingent on fundamental economic conditions and the overall demand for bonds. A sustained recovery may require lower interest rates to support both supply and demand dynamics [4][4][4]. 2. **Credit Spread Adjustments** - The new VAT policy is expected to have a limited impact on credit spreads for non-financial corporate bonds, as their tax structure remains unchanged. This could lead to a narrowing of credit spreads in the market [5][5][5]. 3. **Future Policy Directions** - The focus of monetary policy is likely to shift from fiscal measures to monetary easing, which could further influence bond yields and market dynamics in the second half of the year [2][2][2]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies** - Investors are advised to remain flexible and consider tactical adjustments in their bond portfolios, especially in light of upcoming economic events and policy announcements that could impact market sentiment [2][2][2].