比特币近期的大幅回调，正意外地为美国投资者创造了一个利用"税收亏损收割"策略来降低税单的绝佳窗口。 12月26日，据彭博报道，随着比特币价格较其历史高点下跌30%，一种被称为"税收亏损收割"（Tax-Loss Harvesting）的策略在数 字资产领域正变得比往年更为活跃。这一策略允许投资者卖出亏损资产，利用这些亏损来抵消资本利得，从而减少应税收入。 对于股票投资者而言，若想申报税收亏损，必须遵守"洗售规则"，即卖出亏损股票后需等待31天才能买回。如果提前买回，IRS 将禁止该笔税收抵扣。 由于操作灵活，这种"收割亏损并回购"的交易活动正集中在年底最后几天进行。 值得注意的是，这种宽松的监管环境可能不会永远持续。从2026年开始，美国交易所和经纪商将必须通过新的1099-DA表格首次 向IRS报告加密货币销售的总收益，监管执法力度预计将加强。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定 状况。据此投资，责任自负。 这种现象背后的主要驱动力在于今年资产表现的巨大分化。虽然作为全球市值 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 稳握票息，静待波澜 ——2026 年利率债年度投资策略 ❖ 债市策略：票息为矛、交易为盾 1、再议定价锚：从政策利率到市场利率。（1）10y 定价锚：基本面和政策条 件稳态环境下，参考 25 年关税冲击后 10y 国债运行区间、央行给出的合意区 间、配置与交易行为的变化，我们认为 10y 国债的核心波动区间大致在 OMO+30~50BP，行情极致时可能出现上下 5bp 的超额波动。（2）10y 国债运 行区间：OMO 降息 1 次 10BP（55%概率），全年波动区间预计在 1.6-1.9%； 不降息环境中（40%概率），全年波动区间 1.7-2.0%。（3）30y 定价锚：供需结 构并不占优，30-10y 利差大致可按 30-50BP 观察。（4）1y 定价锚：1y 国股行 存单利率下限或在 DR007+10BP 左右，接近+20BP 具备配置性价比。 2、震荡市赚什么钱？如何操作？ （1）票息为盾：重视震荡市场票息对组合的贡献提升，一是要充分把握票息 的时间价值，早配置早收益，二是要抓住调整窗口积极进行票息布局，在调整 中可以使用"华创三维度比价模型"寻 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the volatility of long-term bond funds compared to short-term bond funds, indicating that long-term bond funds experience greater fluctuations due to interest rate changes [2] - It is noted that the yield of long-term bond funds comes from both interest income and capital gains from bond price fluctuations [2] - The article predicts that by 2025, the interest rates for RMB bonds will gradually increase from a low of 1.6% in 2024 to around 1.8%-1.9% in 2025, which will lead to a decline in the net value of long-term pure bond funds [2] - As interest rates rise, many long-term bond funds are expected to experience a decline of 3%-5% in 2025 due to the bear market conditions [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that while interest income is present, it is insufficient to offset the decline in bond prices, ultimately resulting in a decrease in the net value of pure bond funds [3]

Core Insights - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 600 billion yuan as of September 19, with a rapid development in the market for sci-tech bond ETFs, which has attracted significant attention [1][2] - The market for sci-tech bond ETFs has exceeded 100 billion yuan, driven by strong market demand and government support for technology innovation [2][3] Sci-Tech Bond Development - Sci-tech bonds are a special type of credit bond with specific requirements for issuers regarding their business or the use of raised funds, focusing on technology innovation [2][3] - The categories of sci-tech bonds include those from innovative enterprises, companies upgrading their industries, venture capital firms investing in tech companies, and operators of national high-tech zones [2] Investment Value of Sci-Tech Bonds and ETFs - The investment value of sci-tech bonds is supported by government policies, low credit risk, and opportunities for capital gains from the growth of issuing companies [3][4] - The Shanghai AAA Sci-Tech Bond Index has shown a total return of 13.42% since its inception, with an annualized return of 5.01%, outperforming other mainstream indices [4][5] Advantages of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs - Sci-tech bond ETFs offer lower fees, ease of trading, and lower investment thresholds compared to direct bond purchases or traditional bond funds [6][7] - They allow for convenient trading, transparency in holdings, and lower credit risk through diversified investments in high-grade credit bonds [6][7] Target Investors and Participation - Sci-tech bond ETFs are suitable for investors looking to support national technology strategies while seeking lower volatility returns [7][8] - Ordinary investors can participate easily through secondary market purchases, with recommendations for long-term holding and strategic buying during market adjustments [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of financial education and the initiatives taken by the fund industry to promote financial rights and improve quality of life [1] - It highlights the role of bond funds in providing stable income through interest payments, as over 80% of their assets are invested in bonds [4] - The article explains capital gains as a significant source of income for bond funds, which can fluctuate based on market interest rates and bond credit conditions [5] Group 2 - The article mentions leveraged income generated through bond repurchase agreements, allowing funds to reinvest in high-yield bonds, with open-end bond funds having a leverage cap of 140% and closed-end funds at 200% [6] - It notes the formation of MACD golden cross signals, indicating positive trends in certain stocks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% as a risk management measure to address economic slowdown and cooling labor market, while also aiming to guide inflation back to target [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth for the first half of the year was 1.5%, which is below expectations, indicating pressures from slowing consumer growth, recovering business investment, and a sluggish real estate market [1] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, with new job additions falling to a three-month average of 29,000, highlighting a dual decline in labor market supply and demand, with a faster contraction in supply [1] - Core PCE inflation remains above target at 2.9% year-on-year, despite a decline from previous highs, complicating the inflation outlook due to a rebound in commodity prices and increasing divergence in service sector inflation [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - Short-term Treasury yields (1 year and below) fell sharply after the announcement, with 3-month and 1-year yields closing at 3.97% and 3.62% respectively, reflecting strong market expectations for further Fed easing [2] - The 2-year and 5-year yields also declined but to a lesser extent, consistent with historical patterns where short-term rates react more quickly to rate cuts [2] - Long-term Treasury yields (10 years and above) exhibited complex movements post-rate cut, initially declining but then rebounding, with 20-year and 30-year yields closing at 4.65% and 4.68% respectively, indicating a "short drop, long stability/rise" phenomenon [2] Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, short-term capital gains are significant but limited in the early stages of rate cuts, while long-term yields tend to show considerable gains due to duration advantages, influenced by actual interest rate expectations, term premiums, and global liquidity [3] - Short-term rates (1-3 years) are highly sensitive to changes in the federal funds rate, often reacting ahead of formal rate cuts, while long-term rates are more influenced by economic outlook and inflation expectations [3] - The overall behavior of the yield curve during rate cut cycles is dynamic, with short-term rates responding quickly and long-term rates exhibiting more complex fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of Fed communication on long-term rate trends [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and liquidity of the credit bond ETF, specifically the Bosera Credit Bond ETF, which has shown a slight increase and strong trading volume in recent months [3][4] - As of September 16, the Bosera Credit Bond ETF has accumulated a 1.32% increase over the past six months, ranking it in the top quarter among comparable funds [3] - The ETF has a recent trading volume of 1.08 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 2.8 billion yuan over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [3] Group 2 - The recent monetary policy includes two buyout reverse repurchase operations in September, with a total of 9,000 billion yuan in six-month buyout operations planned [3] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized risk prevention and resolution in key areas during a press conference, focusing on local government debt management and the establishment of a legal debt management system [3] - Research institutions note that since July, the rebound in short-term and low-grade credit bond yields has been limited, but there are still favorable factors supporting credit bonds in September [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Ping An is committed to increasing its equity asset allocation, focusing on growth sectors and high-dividend value stocks, while maintaining a strong operational performance despite a decline in net profit [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Ping An achieved a net operating profit of 77.732 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [2]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 68.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8% [2]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to three main factors: one-time accounting treatment related to the consolidation of Ping An Good Doctor, the issuance of convertible bonds affecting short-term valuations, and unrealized capital gains of approximately 60 billion yuan not reflected in the profit statement [2]. Investment Strategy - As of mid-2025, China Ping An's insurance asset investment scale exceeded 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2% from the beginning of the year, with stock assets accounting for 10.5% [3]. - The company plans to increase its equity market allocation, focusing on new productive forces and high-dividend value stocks [3]. - Future asset allocation will dynamically match high-yield stocks, value stocks, and growth stocks as the cost of liabilities continues to decrease [3]. Market Valuation - As of August 27, 2025, China Ping An's A-share closed at 58.69 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion yuan, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 14% in A-share price this year [5]. - The company believes that the market is gradually recognizing its value, especially as the life insurance industry enters a golden development period [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the unexpected strong performance of long-term credit bonds, with the China Bond 10-year and above implied AA+ full price index increasing by 0.9% in the past week and 1.5% for the month [2][12] - The report identifies four key characteristics of the current long-term credit bond trading: accelerated allocation pace, significant decline in transaction yields, strong performance of 20 to 30-year bonds, and increased trading volume [3][16] - The report notes that as of June 20, 63% of credit bonds with a maturity of over one year are concentrated at yields below 2%, compared to 59% at the beginning of January, indicating a need for mid to long-term asset allocation to achieve yields above 2% [4][46] Group 2 - The report discusses the different triggers for market performance in the interbank and exchange markets, with insurance and funds being the main net buyers of credit bonds over 7 years, and funds showing a significant increase in net buying [4][47] - The report emphasizes that the rapid decline in yields raises concerns, including the proximity of various bond yields to their annual lows, the lack of comparative advantage for long-term credit bonds against government bonds, and the increasing contribution of capital gains to overall returns [5][56] - The report suggests that while the short-term performance of credit bonds over 7 years is strong, the high demands on trading capabilities and the underlying market fragility necessitate a cautious approach, recommending a focus on 3-year city investment bonds for better opportunities [5][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a volatile bond market and a passive widening of credit spreads, investors should prioritize high - coupon assets for certain returns and prepare in advance for the spread compression market driven by the seasonal inflow of wealth management funds in July [1][5]. - The current core contradiction in the credit bond market is the co - existence of weakening allocation demand and a passive widening of spreads in a volatile environment. Investors should seize pricing deviation opportunities under the protection of coupon safety cushions [5]. - The volatile market pattern caused by the interplay of multiple factors will continue, providing tactical opportunities for layout during market adjustments [6]. - The coupon strategy is the optimal solution in a volatile market, and portfolios should be constructed in a stratified manner according to the characteristics of liabilities [7]. - Investors should "pre - position" for the seasonal spread compression market in July and seize structural opportunities in specific bond varieties [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Yield and Spread Overview 3.1.1 Yields and Changes of Each Tenor - Yields of various types of bonds at different tenors are presented, along with their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For example, the 0.5 - year Treasury yield is 1.41%, down 4.0bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 8.4% [14]. 3.1.2 Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor - Credit spreads of various types of bonds at different tenors are shown, including their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 25bp, up 2.1bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 12.7% [16]. 3.2 Yields and Spreads of Credit Bonds by Category (Hermite Algorithm) 3.2.1 Yields and Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds by Region - **Yields and Changes of Each Tenor**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.77%, up 2.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 1.1% [19]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are given. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 30.41bp, up 4.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 7.2% [22]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are presented. For example, the AAA - rated yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 5.1% [26]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are shown. For example, the AAA - rated credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 28.96bp, up 4.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 32.2% [31]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Administrative Level**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at each administrative level, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the provincial - level yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.5bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 3.7% [35].