Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has experienced significant volatility, with discussions intensifying around the possibility of it reaching the 200,000 yuan/ton mark due to various market dynamics and policy changes [2][5]. Price Movement and Market Dynamics - As of January 13, lithium carbonate futures surged to a high of 174,000 yuan/ton, marking a 38% increase since the beginning of the year, with a rise of 50,000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - The price fluctuations were influenced by a recent policy change regarding export tax rebates, which is expected to stimulate short-term demand from battery manufacturers [3][4]. - The market is currently experiencing a "not-so-dull" season, with demand significantly exceeding expectations compared to the same period in 2025 [4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The fundamental improvement in the supply-demand balance is a core support for the recent price increase, with supply constraints due to regulatory changes and long construction cycles for overseas mines [4][6]. - Demand from the commercial vehicle and energy storage sectors is notably increasing, shifting industry expectations from oversupply to a tight balance [4][6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The rapid price increase has led to divergent views among institutions regarding the potential for lithium carbonate to return to the 200,000 yuan/ton level, with some predicting a balanced supply-demand scenario by 2026 [5][6]. - Analysts caution that if prices continue to rise and exceed 200,000 yuan/ton, it may lead to cost pressures on downstream demand due to simultaneous increases in other battery materials [7]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to stabilize the lithium carbonate futures market amid heightened speculative trading, indicating a need for caution among investors [7].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The lithium price continues to rise significantly, driven by the adjustment of tax policies. The expected "rush to export" during the policy transition period boosts demand in the traditional off - season, and the lithium price is still in an upward channel, but there is a risk of callback if the price increase is passed on to downstream [1]. - For the on - site options, considering the limited strike price of call options and high volatility premium, one can use buying in - the - money call options for long - hedging or bull call spread combinations to protect part of the upside space and reduce costs [2]. - For off - site options, customers with long positions planning to gradually reduce their positions can consider arranging Phoenix Knock - out Put Options with a moderate cycle and a wide range to seize the opportunity to reduce positions at high prices and gain additional income in a wide - range volatile market [3]. Summary by Related Content Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate futures market performs strongly. As of the mid - day close on January 13, 2026, the main 2605 contract is reported at 170,200 yuan/ton, up 9.51%. The rise is mainly driven by the adjustment of the battery product's VAT export refund rate from 9% to 6 from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and the planned full cancellation on January 1, 2027 [1]. - In the context of rising raw material prices, the cost of various types of battery cells has generally increased by 15% - 20% in the past two months. The "rush to export" behavior is expected to boost demand in the traditional off - season, and the lithium price is in an upward channel, with the short - term high affected by long - profit - taking [1]. - If the price increase in the industrial chain is successfully passed on to the downstream, it may suppress terminal demand and bring a callback risk [1]. On - site Options Given the limited strike price of call options and high volatility premium, one can use buying in - the - money call options for long - hedging or bull call spread combinations to protect part of the upside space and reduce costs [2]. Off - site Options Customers with long positions planning to gradually reduce their positions can consider arranging Phoenix Knock - out Put Options with a moderate cycle and a wide range to seize the opportunity to reduce positions at high prices and gain additional income in a wide - range volatile market [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the chemical industry, particularly focusing on new materials [1]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in prices due to easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to a replenishment window for trade [9]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase of 49% in the production of power and other batteries in April, despite a slight month-on-month decline of 0.03% [1][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new materials, particularly those that are domestically produced and can replace imports, as a key investment opportunity [10]. Industry Overview - The chemical industry has a total market capitalization of approximately 426.56 billion yuan, with 486 listed companies [1]. - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stands at 79.16, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.95% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.44% [20][22]. - The report notes that the industry price percentile is at 21.88% over the past decade, with a slight increase of 0.37% week-on-week [9][20]. New Materials Sector - The new materials sector has shown a week-on-week increase of 0.26%, underperforming compared to the basic chemical sector, which increased by 1.21% [11][29]. - The report identifies specific companies in the new materials sector that are recommended for investment, including Ruifeng New Materials, Tongyi Zhong, and Lianlong [9]. - The report also mentions the impact of regulatory changes on the safety standards for power batteries, which will be enforced starting July 1, 2026, pushing companies to enhance their battery management systems [13][14]. Price Movements - The report indicates that nitrogen prices increased by 2.97%, while electronic-grade sulfuric acid saw a significant drop of 11.90% [11][26]. - The report provides a detailed overview of price changes in various materials, highlighting both increases and decreases across different sectors [27]. Market Performance - The report notes that the new materials sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in domestic production and import substitution, particularly in high-demand areas such as robotics and renewable energy materials [10][15]. - The report also highlights the performance of specific stocks within the new materials sector, noting both the top gainers and losers for the week [29].