Core Viewpoint - The concept of price increases based on supply and demand has become a key logic for fund managers to outperform the market and identify potential high-growth stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increase as a Signal for Investment - Price increases are viewed by fund managers as a sign of corporate expansion and competitive strength, often leading to excess returns [2]. - The price of Moutai liquor has risen from 499 RMB to approximately 1169 RMB from January 2011 to November 2023, significantly benefiting funds heavily invested in it [2]. - Companies like Bilibili, Meitu, and Tencent Music have also seen positive investment cycles due to membership price increases, with Meitu's net profit reaching 467 million RMB in the first half of the year, a 71.3% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 2: Risks of Price Decrease - The decline in prices can indicate either an industry recession or a competitive "elimination round," posing risks for non-leading companies [3]. - A notable example is the significant losses incurred by funds that invested heavily in Nayuki Tea during a price decline cycle, leading to its market value dropping to less than 2 billion HKD [3]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Trends - In a climate of rising risk aversion, companies with price increase expectations have become attractive investment targets [4]. - Recent data shows that the top-performing funds are concentrated in resource and new energy themes, with some funds achieving returns of up to 31% in a month due to price increases in related commodities [4]. Group 4: Sensitivity to Price Increase Logic - There has been a significant influx of funds into chemical ETFs, reflecting investor sensitivity to price increase logic, despite some ETFs experiencing net value losses earlier in the year [5]. - The asset size of the Jianxin Chemical ETF grew from 604 million RMB to 1.099 billion RMB from June to September 2023, indicating strong investor interest [5]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Strategies - Fund managers are focusing on sectors with price increase potential, such as non-ferrous metals, which are expected to see upward price trends due to supply constraints [6]. - The technology sector is also benefiting from price increases, with major memory suppliers planning to raise prices by up to 30% to meet the growing demand driven by AI [6]. Group 6: Caution in Competitive Industries - Some fund managers advocate for caution in industries experiencing price competition, such as the AI large model sector, where price reductions have been announced [7].

Group 1 - The price increase logic has become a key strategy for fund managers to outperform the market and identify potential stocks, especially during year-end risk aversion periods [1][2] - Fund managers view price hikes as a strong indicator of corporate expansion and competitive strength, leading to significant returns, as seen with Kweichow Moutai and other stocks like Bilibili and Tencent Music [2][3] - The price increase of Kweichow Moutai from 499 RMB to approximately 1169 RMB from January 2011 to November 2023 has provided substantial returns for funds heavily invested in it [2] Group 2 - The decline in prices within certain industries, such as the milk tea sector, signals potential risks and has led to significant losses for funds that invested heavily in stocks like Nayuki's Tea [3] - The strategy of observing price trends (both increases and decreases) is effective for assessing the profitability of companies across various industries [3][4] - Recent data shows that funds focused on resource themes and new energy have seen strong performance, with some funds achieving returns of over 31% in the past month [4][6] Group 3 - The recent surge in prices for chemical products, such as the 68% increase in the price of ethylene carbonate, reflects the strong correlation between price hikes and investor interest [5][6] - The influx of capital into chemical ETFs indicates a high sensitivity among investors to price increase logic, despite some ETFs experiencing net value losses earlier in the year [6] - Fund managers are optimistic about sectors like non-ferrous metals, anticipating upward price movements due to supply constraints and competitive advantages [7] Group 4 - The focus on price increase logic has led some fund managers to adopt a cautious approach towards industries facing price competition, such as the AI sector, where price cuts have been announced [8]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of price increases based on supply and demand has become a key logic for fund managers to identify potential high-performing stocks, especially during year-end risk aversion periods [1][4]. Group 1: Price Increase as a Stock Selection Logic - Price increases are viewed as a strong indicator of corporate expansion and competitiveness, often leading to excess returns for investors [2][3]. - The price of Moutai liquor has risen from 499 yuan to approximately 1169 yuan from January 2011 to November 2023, significantly benefiting funds heavily invested in it [2]. - Internet companies like Bilibili, Meitu, and Tencent Music have also seen positive investment cycles due to membership price increases, with Meitu's net profit in the first half of this year reaching 467 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.3% [2]. Group 2: Impact of Price Decrease on Investment Decisions - The decline in prices within certain industries can signal dangerous trends for non-leading companies, as it may indicate either a recession or a competitive "elimination round" [3]. - Funds that heavily invested in Nayuki Tea faced significant losses as the industry entered a price-cutting phase, leading to its removal from major fund holdings [3]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Trends - The expectation of price increases has attracted significant capital into specific sectors, particularly during times of heightened risk aversion [4][5]. - Recent data shows that funds focused on resource themes and new energy have performed well, with some achieving returns of up to 31% in the past month, closely linked to price increase news in related industries [4]. - The rapid growth of chemical ETFs, despite previous underperformance, indicates strong investor sensitivity to price increase logic [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategies - Fund managers emphasize the importance of price increase logic in their investment strategies, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, where supply constraints are expected to drive prices higher [7]. - In the technology sector, rising prices for memory chips, driven by increased demand from AI applications, are expected to support strong performance in tech growth stocks [7].