Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to present significant investment opportunities in the construction sector, focusing on urban renewal, high-quality construction, new infrastructure, and accelerated development in western regions [1][10]. Group 1: Construction Sector Trends - The construction industry is entering a stock era, with a shift from extensive expansion to intensive development, emphasizing urban renewal and infrastructure maintenance [2][10]. - The demand for high-quality construction is driven by the need for green, low-carbon, and smart living environments, leading to the rise of industrialized, green, and intelligent construction methods [2][3]. Group 2: Prefabricated Construction - Prefabricated construction remains a long-term trend, with steel structures expected to show high demand due to labor shortages and sustainability requirements [3]. - By 2025, the penetration rate of prefabricated buildings is projected to reach 30%, increasing to 40% by 2030, with steel structures being favored for their higher assembly rates and integration capabilities [3]. Group 3: Inspection and Testing - The existing building area is increasing, leading to a peak in demand for inspections of existing homes, with an estimated market demand exceeding 20 billion yuan for inspection services [4]. - Policies promoting regular inspections and safety management for older buildings are being implemented in various cities, indicating a growing market for inspection companies [4]. Group 4: New Infrastructure - The low-altitude economy is gaining momentum, with government support expected to drive rapid growth in related infrastructure, potentially reaching a market size of 300-400 billion yuan by 2030 [5][6]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a capital expenditure (CAPEX) growth cycle, with significant investments expected in cleanroom facilities, projected to reach 168 billion yuan globally by 2025 [7]. Group 5: Energy Sector - Progress in controlled nuclear fusion technology is accelerating, with significant advancements expected during the "14th Five-Year Plan," highlighting investment opportunities in nuclear power construction [8]. Group 6: Regional Development - The construction in strategic regions, particularly in western China, is anticipated to accelerate, with significant investments in transportation infrastructure and coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, estimated to exceed 800 billion yuan by 2025 [9][11]. - Companies involved in transportation infrastructure and chemical engineering in these regions are expected to benefit from increased government support and investment [11].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the construction and infrastructure sectors, including 精工钢构 (Jinggong Steel Structure), 鸿路钢构 (Honglu Steel Structure), 国检集团 (Guojian Group), and others [14]. Core Insights - The construction industry is entering a "stock era," focusing on urban renewal and high-quality construction, driven by the need for green, low-carbon, and smart living environments [1][18]. - Prefabricated construction is identified as a long-term trend, with steel structures expected to show high prosperity due to labor shortages and sustainability requirements [2][21]. - The demand for inspection and testing services is anticipated to peak as the existing building stock ages, with significant market potential estimated at over 20 billion yuan [3][24]. - New infrastructure initiatives, particularly in low-altitude economy and energy sectors, are expected to see rapid growth supported by government policies [4][31]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of regions like Xinjiang and Sichuan, which are set to benefit from increased investment and infrastructure development [10][12][39]. Summary by Sections Construction and Decoration - The construction industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to intensive development, focusing on urban renewal and infrastructure maintenance [1][18]. - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by the end of 2024, indicating a shift in investment focus [1][18]. Prefabricated Construction - The labor force in construction is declining, with the number of construction workers dropping to 42.86 million in 2024, a significant decrease from previous years [2][21]. - The average monthly salary for construction workers is expected to rise to 5,743 yuan in 2024, reflecting a 26% increase since 2019 [2][26]. - The report sets targets for the penetration rate of prefabricated construction at 30% by 2025 and 40% by 2030 [2][21]. Inspection and Testing - The existing building area is projected to reach approximately 38.4 billion square meters by the end of 2024, leading to a surge in demand for building inspections [3][24]. - The establishment of a housing pension system and regular inspection policies in various cities is expected to drive the inspection market [3][24]. New Infrastructure - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow to 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with related infrastructure investments estimated at 300-400 billion yuan [4][31]. - Government policies are increasingly supporting the development of low-altitude infrastructure, with significant funding expected [4][31]. Strategic Regions - Xinjiang is highlighted for its robust economic growth and infrastructure investment, with over 800 billion yuan allocated for coal chemical projects by 2025 [12][41]. - Sichuan is identified as a strategic region for national development, with ongoing support for infrastructure projects [10][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Views - The construction PMI slightly rebounded to 49.3% in September, indicating a minor improvement in the industry's economic sentiment. The new orders index rose to 42.2%, and the business activity expectation index increased to 52.4%, reflecting an alleviation of pressure on new orders and a recovery in business expectations [2][11][16] - Despite ongoing pressure on revenue and profits in the construction sector, cash flow has improved. The report highlights that while infrastructure and real estate investments remain weak, there is potential for increased support from steady growth policies and major infrastructure projects [2][11] - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises with strong fundamentals and low valuations, such as China Communications Construction Company, China Power Construction Company, and China Railway Group, as they are expected to see valuation recovery [2][11] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that in the first half of 2025, China's overseas contracting engineering business saw a year-on-year revenue growth of 9.3% and a new contract signing growth of 13.7%, with significant growth in contracts signed in Belt and Road Initiative countries [3][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for new investment opportunities in the semiconductor cleanroom sector, driven by increased capital expenditures from international semiconductor giants and cloud service providers [3][12] - The report also highlights the completion of 102 major transportation projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to release substantial physical workload and benefit related engineering and material demand [22] Weekly Market Review - The construction and decoration sector experienced a weekly increase of 2.84%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which saw declines of -0.51% and -0.36%, respectively [26] - Notable gainers in the sector included Guanzhong Ecology, China Nuclear Engineering, and Xinjiang Communications Construction, while laggards included Hainan Development and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals [26][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Views - Infrastructure investment growth is under pressure, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.0% from January to August, slowing down by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. In August, infrastructure investment saw a year-on-year decline of 5.9% [2][11] - The report highlights that while the construction and real estate sectors face challenges, there is potential for policy support to boost growth, particularly through major infrastructure projects and urban renewal initiatives [2][11] - The report recommends focusing on leading state-owned enterprises in infrastructure, such as China Communications Construction Company, China Electric Power Construction, and China Railway Group, which are expected to see valuation recovery [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Views - From January to August, the year-on-year growth rates for various sectors are as follows: railway transportation +4.5%, road transportation -3.3%, water conservancy management +7.4%, and public facilities management -1.1%. All sectors showed a slowdown compared to the previous month [2][11] - Cement production from January to August decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline of 6.2% in August alone. The overall revenue and profit in the construction sector remain under pressure, although cash flow has improved [2][11][16] International Expansion - In the first half of 2025, China's overseas contracting projects saw a revenue increase of 9.3% year-on-year, with new contracts growing by 13.7%. Notably, contracts in Belt and Road Initiative countries increased by 21% [3][12] - The report suggests that the ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade frictions may lead to increased infrastructure cooperation abroad, benefiting companies involved in international engineering projects [3][12] Demand Structure and New Opportunities - The report identifies opportunities in the semiconductor cleanroom sector, driven by increased capital expenditures from international semiconductor giants and cloud service providers. Companies like Shenghui Integrated and Yaxiang Integrated are recommended for investment [3][12]