机构：东北证券 研究员：刘清海/刘张驰 事件： 公司公布2025 年中期报告，2025H1 公司实现营收949.2 亿元（yoy+19.9%）；毛利率24.0% （+1.8pct），归母净利润118.8 亿元（yoy+16.2%）；核心净利润100.0亿元。 资产结构稳健，财务持续优化。在手现金1202.4 亿元，净有息负债率39.2%，加权资本成本较去年年底 下降32bp 至2.79%，维持行业最低水平。拟派发中期股息0.20 元/股，与去年同期持平。 风险提示：业绩预测和估值不达预期；业务拓展放缓；商业竞争加剧 营收稳步增长，盈利水平稳定。2025H1 公司实现营收949.2 亿元（yoy+19.9%）；其中开发业务增长 25.8%至743.6 亿元。开发业务增长主要原因系结转结构优化（金额增长25.8%，面积下降7.2%），体现 出公司布局能级有所提升。公司上半年实现毛利率24.0%（+1.8pct），其中开发业务毛利率为15.6% （+3.2pct）。归母净利润118.8 亿元（yoy+16.2%）；核心净利润100.0 亿元。归母净利润增速略低于营 收原因系项目结转，财务费用由8.8 亿提升至15. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 949.2 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.9%. The gross margin improved to 24.0%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 118.8 billion yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - The development business saw a significant increase of 25.8% in revenue, totaling 743.6 billion yuan, driven by an optimized project turnover structure [2]. - The company maintained a strong sales performance, with a sales amount of 1,103.0 billion yuan in H1 2025, despite a year-on-year decline of 11.6% [2]. - The commercial segment continues to lead, with recurring business income growing by 2.5% to 205.6 billion yuan, contributing 21.3% to total revenue [3]. - The company has a robust financial structure, with cash on hand amounting to 1,202.4 billion yuan and a net interest-bearing debt ratio of 39.2% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 949.2 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.0% and a core net profit of 100.0 billion yuan [2][4]. - The development business's gross margin improved to 15.6%, up 3.2 percentage points [2]. Sales and Investment - The company ranked among the top three in sales, with a 46% share from first-tier cities, which increased by 8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - In H1 2025, the company added 18 new investment projects totaling 447.3 billion yuan, with a land acquisition intensity of 40.6% [2]. Commercial Operations - The company operates 94 shopping malls, generating rental income of 104.2 billion yuan, with an occupancy rate of 97.3% [3]. - The retail sales reached 1,101.5 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.2% [3]. Financial Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2,834.8 billion yuan, 2,877.6 billion yuan, and 2,989.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 257.7 billion yuan, 267.4 billion yuan, and 298.5 billion yuan for the same years [4].