房地产 2025 年 08 月 25 日 华润万象生活(1209.HK) 厚积成势万象更新，双轮协同行稳致远 推荐（首次） 股价：40.28 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.crmixclifestyle.com.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 华润置地有限公司/72.29% | | 实际控制人 | 国务院国资委 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2282.50 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 2282.50 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 839 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 7.96 | | 资产负债率(%) | 42.16 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514080002 | | | BQV514 | | | YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn | | 郑茜文 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060520090003 | | | ZHENGXIWEN239@p ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (July 7 - 11, 2025), the China Securities REITs Total Return Index closed at 1103.87 points, down 1.12% weekly, and the China Securities REITs (Closing) Index closed at 876.64 points, also down 1.12% weekly. The total market capitalization of 68 listed REITs projects in China's REITs market this week was 205.2 billion yuan, down 1.30% month - on - month. REITs underperformed compared to other major asset classes [1][9]. - In the secondary market, all seven REITs sectors declined, with the rental housing sector having the largest decline of 2.76%, and the energy facilities sector being relatively resilient. The industrial park sector was generally under pressure, with fluctuations in occupancy rates and rental prices [2]. - In the primary market, China Resources Commercial REIT plans a second expansion and acquisition of three Mixc projects in Hangzhou, Shenyang, and Zibo, which have good operations and stable cash flows [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price: Rental Housing with the Largest Decline - All seven REITs sectors declined, with rental housing dropping 2.76%. The 8 REITs in the rental housing sector all fell, with significant declines in CICC Xiamen Anju (-4.44%), Hongtu Innovation Shenzhen Anju (-3.76%), and China Asset Management China Resources Youchao (-3.59%) [2]. - The industrial park sector was generally under pressure, with reduced regional rental demand and intensified competition due to the "price - for - volume" strategy. Reasons for tenants reducing space or leaving included moving to self - owned premises, business difficulties, and normal turnover [2][18]. 3.1.2 Liquidity: Overall Trading Activity Declined - This week, the overall trading activity in the market decreased compared to last week. The average daily trading volume was 550 million yuan, the average daily trading volume was 120 million shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 0.59%, down 17.36%, 18.65%, and 0.15 percentage points respectively [2][24]. - The sectors with relatively high average daily turnover rates this week were municipal environmental protection (1.02%), rental housing (0.78%), and consumer facilities (0.65%), but the turnover rates of all sectors declined compared to last week [27]. 3.1.3 Valuation: Transportation, Warehousing, and Industrial Park Valuations in the Forefront - The decline of REITs this week led to valuation adjustments. In terms of ChinaBond valuation yields, the transportation (5.37%), warehousing logistics (4.97%), and industrial park (4.76%) sectors were in the forefront, with significant valuation differences among projects [36]. - From the perspective of cash distribution rates, the higher - distribution sectors among equity - type projects were transportation (4.30%), warehousing (4.03%), and consumer (3.70%), while the average distribution rate of rental housing was only 2.68% [36]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 China Resources Commercial REIT Plans a Second Expansion to Acquire Three Mixc Projects in Hangzhou, Shenyang, and Zibo - On July 8, China Resources Commercial REIT announced a plan for a second expansion and acquisition of infrastructure projects in Hangzhou Xiaoshan Mixc, Shenyang Changbai Mixc, and Zibo Mixc, expanding its coverage of consumer infrastructure in different cities [39][40]. - Mixc is one of China Resources Group's three major commercial product lines, targeting regional shopping centers in core areas of first - and second - tier cities and core locations of third - tier cities. The projects to be acquired have good operations and stable cash flows [40].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate industry is experiencing a stabilization phase driven by government policies, with light asset sectors showing signs of recovery while heavy asset development is undergoing a cleansing process. Some risky enterprises are stabilizing due to government support [1][3] - New consumption has become a key driver of economic growth in China, contributing over 50% to GDP growth, although consumer spending as a percentage of GDP remains lower than in developed countries [1][4] - The real estate market is shifting towards a stock market model, with technology enhancing operational efficiency in light asset management, such as robots reducing costs by 20%-30% in property management [1][6] Market Dynamics - The real estate market is increasingly concentrated in core cities, with the top six cities accounting for 24.2% of national new home sales. Investment is also focused on first- and second-tier cities, a trend expected to continue [1][7] - Brand-name real estate companies are seeing improved profit margins in land acquisition in first- and second-tier cities, indicating a competitive advantage and potential for growth [1][9] - Since the policy implementation on September 26, 2023, the decline in new home sales has narrowed, but market activity is expected to decrease starting April 2024 [1][10] Investment Opportunities - There is a positive outlook for commercial, intermediary, and property management sectors, particularly for brand developers positioned in core cities. High dividend stocks in heavy asset commercial and light asset management are favored [2][15] - The real estate market is witnessing a divergence, with core cities performing significantly better than others, particularly in sales growth [1][11] Company Insights - China Resources Vientiane Life, a leading commercial management company, is expected to achieve sustained growth of 15%-20%, driven by its strong management capabilities and diverse product lines [16] - New City Holdings is a leader in shopping centers in third- and fourth-tier cities, showing good debt management despite market concerns [16] - Other notable companies include China Resources Land, which is transitioning towards asset management, and Green City Services, which is focusing on brand management and has shown resilience in profit growth [16][18] Future Trends - The real estate industry is moving towards a phase of "survival" to "thriving," with leading companies expected to benefit from improved land acquisition returns and liquidity [14] - The 2024 land market is expected to concentrate further in core cities, with developers showing strong replenishment intentions due to improved sales figures [12] - The overall adjustment process in the real estate sector is progressing positively, with significant reductions in bad debts and inventory impairments expected to conclude soon [14] Conclusion - The real estate sector is undergoing significant changes, with a focus on quality and efficiency driven by technology and government policies. Investment opportunities are emerging in commercial and property management sectors, particularly in core urban areas, while brand developers are positioned for growth amidst market consolidation [1][15]

Core Insights - In May 2025, the opening of nearly 50 centralized commercial projects was driven by the "May Day" Golden Week, marking the highest number of openings in the same period over the past three years [1][2] - The total commercial building area of these projects exceeded 3.68 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 4.5 times in quantity and 3.8 times in area compared to April 2025 [2] - The opening wave included innovative projects in urban renewal, "cultural tourism+" commercial spaces, "sports+" commercial spaces, and themed shopping malls, showcasing various creative elements [1][14] Group 1: Opening Statistics - A total of 49 centralized commercial projects opened in May 2025, with 25 projects opening on May 1 alone, accounting for over half of the month's total [2] - The number of new openings in May 2025 increased by 13.95% in quantity and 16.76% in area compared to May 2024 [2] - The distribution of new openings was concentrated in high-tier cities, with first-tier, quasi-first-tier, and second-tier cities accounting for 64% of the total openings [5][10] Group 2: Leading Cities and Projects - Beijing ranked first in the number of new openings with four projects, followed by Guangzhou with three [5] - Notable projects included the Nanjing Xuanwu China Merchants Garden City and the first Joy City in Jiangxi, among others [10][12] Group 3: Dominance of Chain Management Enterprises - Chain management enterprises played a significant role in the new openings, with nearly 30 projects managed by major players like China Resources, Wanda, Longfor, and JD MALL [10][11] - JD MALL accelerated its expansion with multiple openings in cities including Nanjing, Chengdu, and Beijing [10] Group 4: Urban Renewal and Cultural Integration - Seven urban renewal projects opened in May, primarily in first-tier cities, focusing on integrating local cultural DNA into commercial spaces [15][16] - Projects like Beijing Zhonghai Dajixiang and Guangzhou Huatingfang exemplified the trend of preserving historical elements while modernizing commercial offerings [15][19] Group 5: "Cultural Tourism+" and "Sports+" Trends - "Cultural tourism+" commercial spaces are evolving, with projects like Ningbo Qianwan Shengshi Li and Guangzhou Huatingfang emphasizing local culture and immersive experiences [24][25] - The "sports+" commercial trend is gaining traction, with projects like Nanjing Zijin Zhongai Li and Shenyang Global Port Dynamic City focusing on sports-themed environments [29][30] Group 6: 24-Hour Social Spaces - The concept of "24-hour social spaces" is emerging, with projects like Xiamen Hemei Tiandi and Lhasa Wangfujing Shopping Center catering to round-the-clock consumer needs [38][40] - These spaces aim to enhance night economy activities, providing diverse entertainment and dining options [40][41] Group 7: Thematic Shopping Malls - The rise of "two-dimensional" themed shopping malls is evident, with projects like Nanchang Yintai and Dalian Olympic Electronic City transforming existing spaces into vibrant cultural hubs [42] - These projects focus on attracting younger demographics through innovative themes and experiences [42]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4]. Core Viewpoints - China Resources Vientiane Life is a leading property management and commercial operation service provider in China, with a strong background and stable shareholding structure [1][16]. - The company has demonstrated resilience in its business operations, particularly in its shopping center segment, which is expected to continue growing despite market challenges [2][4]. - The financial performance shows steady revenue growth and a commitment to high dividend payouts, reflecting strong profitability and shareholder returns [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Vientiane Life has over 20 years of experience in commercial operations, focusing on a comprehensive service brand across various sectors [1][16]. - The company is primarily engaged in property management and commercial management, with revenue contributions expected to be 63% and 37% respectively in 2024 [1]. Commercial Operations - The company operates 122 shopping centers, maintaining a leading position in the industry, with expected retail sales growth of 4.6% in 2024 [2]. - Key competitive advantages include early market entry, strong brand partnerships, a clear product line, and a robust membership system that drives customer loyalty [2]. Property Management - Backed by its parent company, China Resources Land, the company has a solid foundation for growth, with a managed area of 4.1 billion square meters as of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [3]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence through various strategies, including acquisitions and partnerships [3]. Financial Analysis - The company reported a revenue of 17.04 billion RMB in 2024, a 15.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.63 billion RMB, up 23.9% [3][6]. - The company has maintained a total dividend payout ratio of 100% for two consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 4.3% [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 19.19 billion RMB, 21.21 billion RMB, and 23.26 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.17 billion RMB, 4.74 billion RMB, and 5.29 billion RMB [4][6]. - The report suggests a reasonable market valuation of 91.8 billion RMB, translating to a target share price of 40.2 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading provider of property management and commercial operation services in China, with a strong background and stable shareholding structure [1][20]. - The commercial segment shows resilience against economic cycles, with a robust pipeline of shopping centers and effective operational capabilities [2][4]. - The property management segment benefits from the backing of its parent company, ensuring stable growth and expansion [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the commercial sector, establishing a comprehensive service brand [1][16]. - It operates under a stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder, China Resources Land, holding over 72% of the shares [20][21]. - The business model includes two main segments: property management and commercial management, contributing to a diversified revenue stream [23]. Commercial Segment - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 122 shopping centers, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2]. - The retail sales in 2024 are expected to grow by 4.6% year-on-year, outperforming the overall retail growth rate [2]. - The company has a strong membership system that stabilizes customer traffic and retail sales, with rental income projected to increase by 19.2% to 26.2 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. Property Management Segment - The company’s managed area is expected to grow steadily, supported by its parent company’s strong performance in property development [3]. - By 2024, the company’s contracted area is projected to reach 450 million square meters, with a managed area of 410 million square meters, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.9% and 11.6% respectively [3]. - The company is actively expanding through market outreach, acquisitions, and partnerships, enhancing its service offerings [3]. Financial Analysis - The company’s revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 17.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, with net profit expected to rise by 23.9% to 3.63 billion yuan [3][6]. - The company has maintained a 100% dividend payout ratio for two consecutive years, with a fixed dividend rate increasing from 37% in 2021 to 60% in 2024 [3][4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.83, 2.07, and 2.32 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.5, 17.2, and 15.4 [4][6]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leader in the commercial real estate sector, with a strong pipeline of projects and stable operations [4]. - The valuation is expected to reflect a premium compared to peers due to its unique business model and consistent performance [4]. - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization of 91.8 billion yuan, translating to a target share price of 40.2 yuan [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic decision of Wanda Commercial Management to sell high-value, easily liquidated assets in first and second-tier cities while retaining projects in lower-tier markets, which may be the most advantageous choice for the company amid liquidity challenges [2][11]. Group 1: Asset Sales and Financial Strategy - Wanda Commercial Management is undergoing a significant asset sale, with a recent transaction involving the acquisition of 48 Wanda Plaza companies by a consortium including Tencent, reportedly valued at 50 billion yuan [2][5]. - Over the past two years, Wanda has sold more than 30 Wanda Plazas, with seven sold at the beginning of this year alone, indicating a focused strategy to alleviate financial pressures [2][3]. - The company is prioritizing the sale of assets in first and second-tier cities due to their higher asset values, which can quickly generate cash flow to address debt issues [11][19]. Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The sold Wanda Plazas are primarily located in first, new first, and second-tier cities, where competition in commercial real estate has intensified, leading to a perception of these properties as outdated [5][11]. - In contrast, Wanda Plazas in lower-tier cities remain highly valued, with the company holding a leading position in these markets, having established nearly 30 projects in the top 100 counties in China [11][14]. - The article highlights the changing consumer landscape, where lower-tier cities are experiencing economic growth and increased consumer spending, benefiting Wanda's early investments in these markets [14][15]. Group 3: Future Challenges and Competition - The competition for consumer attention in lower-tier markets is intensifying, with other players like Wuyue Plaza and China Resources' Mixc entering the fray, posing a challenge to Wanda's market dominance [18][19]. - As Wanda continues to divest from first and second-tier cities, maintaining its competitive edge in lower-tier markets will be crucial for the company's long-term success [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic asset sales of Wanda Group, particularly focusing on the sale of 48 Wanda Plaza locations to various investors, including Tencent, amid liquidity challenges faced by the company. This move aligns with Wanda's shift towards a lighter asset management model and highlights the differing commercial values of its properties across various city tiers [4][5][10]. Summary by Sections Asset Sales and Financial Strategy - Wanda Group is selling 48 Wanda Plaza locations, with a reported transaction value of approximately 50 billion yuan [5]. - The company has been divesting assets over the past two years, having sold over 30 Wanda Plazas, with a focus on reducing heavy asset burdens and concentrating on commercial management services [5][10]. - The sales are primarily concentrated in first-tier, new first-tier, and second- to third-tier cities, reflecting a strategic decision to maximize cash flow from high-value assets [7][10]. Market Position and Competition - In first- and second-tier cities, Wanda Plazas face intense competition from brands like SKP and MixC, often being labeled as outdated [9]. - Conversely, in lower-tier cities, Wanda Plazas maintain a strong market presence, with nearly 30 projects in the top 100 counties, outperforming competitors like Wuyue Plaza [10][12]. Consumer Trends and Economic Context - Recent consumer trends indicate a slowdown in demand in first- and second-tier cities, while lower-tier markets are experiencing growth and upgrading consumer needs [14][15]. - The entry of Wanda Plazas into these markets has significantly impacted local economies, with examples of high foot traffic and sales figures shortly after openings [14][15]. Long-term Strategic Outlook - The company’s strategy of retaining assets in lower-tier markets while selling off higher-value properties in major cities is seen as a way to balance immediate liquidity needs with long-term growth potential [12][20]. - The competitive landscape in lower-tier markets is intensifying, with other players like Wuyue and Huazhu also targeting these areas, posing a challenge for Wanda to maintain its market leadership [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - Wang Jianlin is determined to sell off assets amid liquidity crisis, with Wanda Plaza being a core focus of these sales [3][4] Group 1: Asset Sales and Financial Strategy - Wanda Commercial Management Group is selling 48 Wanda Plaza locations to a consortium including Tencent and other firms, with the transaction reportedly valued at 50 billion yuan [3][4] - Over the past two years, Wang Jianlin has sold more than 30 Wanda Plazas, with a strategy to shift from heavy asset burdens to a focus on commercial management services [4][12] - The sales are primarily concentrated in first-tier and new first-tier cities, where the asset values are higher, allowing for quicker cash recovery to alleviate debt pressure [11][12] Group 2: Market Positioning and Consumer Trends - Despite the competitive landscape in first-tier cities, Wanda Plazas maintain a strong presence in lower-tier cities, where they are considered top-tier commercial entities [8][11] - The operational costs in lower-tier cities are lower, making them potentially more profitable despite lower rental yields [11][12] - Recent openings in lower-tier cities have seen significant consumer engagement, indicating a growing demand for commercial spaces in these markets [14][15] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Other competitors like Wuyue Plaza and Huazhu's Vanke are also targeting the lower-tier market, intensifying competition for consumer attention [20][22] - Wuyue Plaza has a similar market strategy to Wanda, often opening in proximity to Wanda Plazas, while also appealing to younger demographics with trendy brands [21][22] - The challenge for Wanda is to maintain its competitive edge in the lower-tier market as more players enter the space [22]

近日，国家市场监管总局披露了大连万达商业管理集团股份有限公司(下称"万达商管")旗下48家万达广 场相关公司股权收购案的相关信息。 文 | 源Sight王言 上述信息显示，太盟(珠海)管理咨询合伙企业(有限合伙)、高和丰德(北京)企业管理服务有限公司、腾讯 控股有限公司、北京市潘达商业管理有限公司、阳光人寿保险股份有限公司，将直接或通过各自关联方 共同设立合营企业，收购万达商管直接或间接持有的48家目标公司的100%股权。 市场监管总局官网显示，该笔股权交易已被无条件批准，但并未披露这一交易的具体金额。不过据媒体 报道，有市场消息称，此次交易金额将达到500亿元。 由于面临流动性危机，王健林近两年一直在出售手中的资产，万达广场则成为其中的核心。从公开资料 推算，万达商管在巅峰时期拥有超过400座万达广场，2023-2024年，已陆续出售超过30座万达广场。今 年年初，又有7座万达广场被出售。 这其实也与近年来万达加速剥离重资产包袱，聚焦商业管理服务核心赛道，进行轻资产运营的策略一脉 相承。而由于地理位置、消费需求等因素，王健林手中的数百家万达广场，如今也呈现出不同的商业价 值和潜力。 下沉市场的价值 细分来看 ...