房地产 2025 年 08 月 25 日 华润万象生活(1209.HK) 厚积成势万象更新，双轮协同行稳致远 推荐（首次） 股价：40.28 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.crmixclifestyle.com.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 华润置地有限公司/72.29% | | 实际控制人 | 国务院国资委 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2282.50 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 2282.50 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 839 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 7.96 | | 资产负债率(%) | 42.16 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514080002 | | | BQV514 | | | YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn | | 郑茜文 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060520090003 | | | ZHENGXIWEN239@p ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate industry is experiencing a stabilization phase driven by government policies, with light asset sectors showing signs of recovery while heavy asset development is undergoing a cleansing process. Some risky enterprises are stabilizing due to government support [1][3] - New consumption has become a key driver of economic growth in China, contributing over 50% to GDP growth, although consumer spending as a percentage of GDP remains lower than in developed countries [1][4] - The real estate market is shifting towards a stock market model, with technology enhancing operational efficiency in light asset management, such as robots reducing costs by 20%-30% in property management [1][6] Market Dynamics - The real estate market is increasingly concentrated in core cities, with the top six cities accounting for 24.2% of national new home sales. Investment is also focused on first- and second-tier cities, a trend expected to continue [1][7] - Brand-name real estate companies are seeing improved profit margins in land acquisition in first- and second-tier cities, indicating a competitive advantage and potential for growth [1][9] - Since the policy implementation on September 26, 2023, the decline in new home sales has narrowed, but market activity is expected to decrease starting April 2024 [1][10] Investment Opportunities - There is a positive outlook for commercial, intermediary, and property management sectors, particularly for brand developers positioned in core cities. High dividend stocks in heavy asset commercial and light asset management are favored [2][15] - The real estate market is witnessing a divergence, with core cities performing significantly better than others, particularly in sales growth [1][11] Company Insights - China Resources Vientiane Life, a leading commercial management company, is expected to achieve sustained growth of 15%-20%, driven by its strong management capabilities and diverse product lines [16] - New City Holdings is a leader in shopping centers in third- and fourth-tier cities, showing good debt management despite market concerns [16] - Other notable companies include China Resources Land, which is transitioning towards asset management, and Green City Services, which is focusing on brand management and has shown resilience in profit growth [16][18] Future Trends - The real estate industry is moving towards a phase of "survival" to "thriving," with leading companies expected to benefit from improved land acquisition returns and liquidity [14] - The 2024 land market is expected to concentrate further in core cities, with developers showing strong replenishment intentions due to improved sales figures [12] - The overall adjustment process in the real estate sector is progressing positively, with significant reductions in bad debts and inventory impairments expected to conclude soon [14] Conclusion - The real estate sector is undergoing significant changes, with a focus on quality and efficiency driven by technology and government policies. Investment opportunities are emerging in commercial and property management sectors, particularly in core urban areas, while brand developers are positioned for growth amidst market consolidation [1][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the oversupply of commercial spaces in Shanghai, highlighting the rapid opening of new shopping centers while existing ones struggle with low consumer demand and high vacancy rates [7][10][11]. Group 1: Current Commercial Landscape in Shanghai - Shanghai is surrounded by over 400 shopping centers, with an average of one large shopping center for every 80,000 people, compared to Tokyo's one for every 200,000 [3]. - The per capita commercial area in Shanghai is second only to Dubai and is three times that of Tokyo [4]. - Despite the saturation, Shanghai is expected to open around 60 new commercial spaces this year, totaling over 3 million square meters, with Minhang leading in new openings [6]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The retail sales growth in Shanghai was negative in the first quarter of this year, indicating a disconnect between the increase in commercial supply and consumer spending [7][9]. - Many shopping centers are being abandoned or sold off, reflecting a significant turnover in the commercial landscape [11][14]. Group 3: Case Studies of Specific Shopping Centers - The Aegean Shopping Center, opened in 2017, has seen a dramatic decline, with a 90% vacancy rate in its outdoor commercial area [22][33]. - The "The Roof" shopping center, designed by a renowned architect, has become more of a tourist attraction than a shopping destination, with many shops closed or under renovation [47][49]. - The once-thriving Qipu Road wholesale market has seen rental prices plummet from 70,000 to 500 yuan per month, indicating a severe decline in demand [61][90]. Group 4: Trends in Commercial Real Estate - The article notes a trend of commercial real estate companies, such as Wanda, selling off assets to manage debt, with Wanda having sold nearly 90 shopping centers since 2017 [96][99]. - Other companies, including Vanke and various insurance firms, are also engaging in asset sales to improve liquidity and focus on core assets [106][115]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The commercial real estate sector is transitioning from an expansion phase to a focus on efficiency and quality, with a clear shift towards a "stock era" where supply and demand dynamics are changing [120][126]. - Successful commercial spaces are adapting to new consumer preferences and finding ways to thrive amidst the challenges faced by many others [123][125].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai is experiencing a commercial supply surplus, with an increasing number of shopping centers opening but not translating into higher consumer spending [10][9][6]. Group 1: Commercial Landscape in Shanghai - Shanghai has over 400 shopping centers, with one large shopping center for every 80,000 people, compared to Tokyo's one for every 200,000 [3][4]. - The per capita commercial area in Shanghai is second only to Dubai and is three times that of Tokyo [5]. - In 2023, approximately 60 new commercial projects are expected to open in Shanghai, totaling over 3 million square meters [6]. Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - In Q1 2023, Shanghai's total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, indicating a decline in consumer demand despite the increase in shopping centers [9]. - The retail sales of goods and catering revenue also saw negative growth, with catering revenue down by 3.4% [9]. Group 3: Commercial Space Challenges - Many shopping centers are becoming abandoned or underperforming, with notable closures in prime areas like Lujiazui [13][14]. - The rapid turnover and high elimination rate of shopping centers are evident, with some large malls like Aegean Sea Shopping Center facing significant vacancy rates [18][22]. - The outdoor commercial spaces in some centers have vacancy rates exceeding 90% [22][31]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Trends - The market is witnessing a transformation where some shopping centers are being repurposed or sold off due to financial pressures on developers [106][130]. - Major players like Wanda and Vanke are actively selling off commercial assets to improve liquidity, with Wanda selling nearly 90 Wanda Plazas since 2017 [108][113][122]. - The trend indicates a shift from expansion to efficiency, with a focus on core assets and high-quality developments [139][146].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4]. Core Viewpoints - China Resources Vientiane Life is a leading property management and commercial operation service provider in China, with a strong background and stable shareholding structure [1][16]. - The company has demonstrated resilience in its business operations, particularly in its shopping center segment, which is expected to continue growing despite market challenges [2][4]. - The financial performance shows steady revenue growth and a commitment to high dividend payouts, reflecting strong profitability and shareholder returns [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Vientiane Life has over 20 years of experience in commercial operations, focusing on a comprehensive service brand across various sectors [1][16]. - The company is primarily engaged in property management and commercial management, with revenue contributions expected to be 63% and 37% respectively in 2024 [1]. Commercial Operations - The company operates 122 shopping centers, maintaining a leading position in the industry, with expected retail sales growth of 4.6% in 2024 [2]. - Key competitive advantages include early market entry, strong brand partnerships, a clear product line, and a robust membership system that drives customer loyalty [2]. Property Management - Backed by its parent company, China Resources Land, the company has a solid foundation for growth, with a managed area of 4.1 billion square meters as of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [3]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence through various strategies, including acquisitions and partnerships [3]. Financial Analysis - The company reported a revenue of 17.04 billion RMB in 2024, a 15.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.63 billion RMB, up 23.9% [3][6]. - The company has maintained a total dividend payout ratio of 100% for two consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 4.3% [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 19.19 billion RMB, 21.21 billion RMB, and 23.26 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.17 billion RMB, 4.74 billion RMB, and 5.29 billion RMB [4][6]. - The report suggests a reasonable market valuation of 91.8 billion RMB, translating to a target share price of 40.2 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading provider of property management and commercial operation services in China, with a strong background and stable shareholding structure [1][20]. - The commercial segment shows resilience against economic cycles, with a robust pipeline of shopping centers and effective operational capabilities [2][4]. - The property management segment benefits from the backing of its parent company, ensuring stable growth and expansion [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the commercial sector, establishing a comprehensive service brand [1][16]. - It operates under a stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder, China Resources Land, holding over 72% of the shares [20][21]. - The business model includes two main segments: property management and commercial management, contributing to a diversified revenue stream [23]. Commercial Segment - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 122 shopping centers, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2]. - The retail sales in 2024 are expected to grow by 4.6% year-on-year, outperforming the overall retail growth rate [2]. - The company has a strong membership system that stabilizes customer traffic and retail sales, with rental income projected to increase by 19.2% to 26.2 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. Property Management Segment - The company’s managed area is expected to grow steadily, supported by its parent company’s strong performance in property development [3]. - By 2024, the company’s contracted area is projected to reach 450 million square meters, with a managed area of 410 million square meters, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.9% and 11.6% respectively [3]. - The company is actively expanding through market outreach, acquisitions, and partnerships, enhancing its service offerings [3]. Financial Analysis - The company’s revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 17.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, with net profit expected to rise by 23.9% to 3.63 billion yuan [3][6]. - The company has maintained a 100% dividend payout ratio for two consecutive years, with a fixed dividend rate increasing from 37% in 2021 to 60% in 2024 [3][4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.83, 2.07, and 2.32 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.5, 17.2, and 15.4 [4][6]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leader in the commercial real estate sector, with a strong pipeline of projects and stable operations [4]. - The valuation is expected to reflect a premium compared to peers due to its unique business model and consistent performance [4]. - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization of 91.8 billion yuan, translating to a target share price of 40.2 yuan [4].

Core Insights - The article presents the rankings of popular shopping centers in March 2025, highlighting the top three centers in various cities and their respective popularity indices. The top three are Hangzhou's Huzhou Yintai in 77, Shenzhen's One方天地, and Shanghai's Longfor Dream City Life Center, all with indices above 8 [1][5]. Group 1: Popularity Rankings - A total of 310 shopping centers from 21 cities are included in the rankings, with the top three centers having popularity indices exceeding 8 [1][7]. - The average popularity index of the top 10 centers in cities shows a positive correlation with the top-ranked center's index, although some cities exhibit discrepancies [1]. - Notably, Ningbo's Tianyi Square and Beijing's Chaoyang He Shenghui entered the top five for the first time, ranking fourth and fifth respectively [1]. Group 2: Operator Performance - Major operators such as China Resources Vanguard Life, Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management Group, Longfor Group, and Vanke Group have multiple projects listed, with China Resources Vanguard Life leading with 30 projects [3][4]. - The average popularity index for China Resources Vanguard Life's projects is 6.21, indicating a strong performance in the market [3]. Group 3: Foot Traffic Analysis - The average daily foot traffic for the ranked shopping centers in March was 77,500, remaining stable compared to February [5]. - Only four shopping centers exceeded 200,000 daily visitors, while 64 centers had over 100,000 visitors, accounting for 20% of the total [5]. - Cities like Shanghai showed strong performance, with all 20 ranked projects averaging over 100,000 daily visitors [5]. Group 4: Regional Insights - In the North China region, 30 shopping centers were ranked, with a significant concentration in mature business districts [8]. - The East China region had 100 projects listed, with a notable presence of foreign-funded operators, indicating a competitive market landscape [16][25]. - The South China region saw 60 projects ranked, with new entries such as Guangzhou's Yunmen NEW PARK and Shenzhen's Xinhai World COCOPark [26][27]. Group 5: City-Specific Highlights - In Beijing, Chaoyang He Shenghui maintained the top position with a popularity index of 7.81, while new entries like Beijing Super Extreme He Shenghui also gained attention [9][13]. - Shanghai's Longfor Dream City Life Center topped the East China rankings with an index of 8.51, showcasing its strong market appeal [17]. - In Guangzhou, the popularity of local shopping centers is rising, with the introduction of innovative marketing strategies and events [31].

Core Insights - The real estate market has seen a revival since the fourth quarter of last year, leading to increased land acquisition enthusiasm among developers, with record high land prices being set in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu [2][4] - Huafa Group, a major state-owned enterprise from the Greater Bay Area, has made a significant land acquisition in the CCBD area of Xi'an, marking its fifth residential project in the city [3][4] - The CCBD area is recognized for its strategic location and development potential, serving as a hub for transportation, industry, and consumption, with a focus on upgrading urban functions [7][11] Company Developments - Huafa Group acquired a 44.7-acre plot in Qujiang CCBD for a total price of 835 million, with a floor price of 9,038 yuan per square meter [4] - The company has also invested in a commercial complex in the Datang Night City area, indicating its deep involvement in the development and operation of the Qujiang area [11] - Huafa Group has achieved significant sales performance, ranking in the top 7 nationally in the first quarter of 2025, with a sales average price ranking in the top 3 [12][14] Market Trends - The luxury housing market is experiencing a transformation, with Huafa Group setting new standards in high-end residential projects, focusing on core urban areas and high-demand demographics [14][16] - Xi'an is positioned as a rapidly developing new first-tier city with a strong demand for high-quality housing, driven by affluent consumers seeking premium products and services [16] - The project "Jinchengfu" aims to redefine the luxury market in Xi'an, featuring high-end design and spacious living areas, with starting sizes of 220 square meters [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou has released the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of Business Circles," aiming to accelerate the establishment of an international consumption center city and enhance its global influence by 2035 [1][19]. Group 1: Key Business Circle Framework - By 2035, Guangzhou plans to establish a "5+2+4+22" key business circle system, creating a balanced, functional, and influential network of world-class, metropolitan, and regional business circles [1][19]. - By the end of 2025, the city's commercial area is expected to grow by over 1 million square meters, with significant projects like Wanxiang City and Taikoo Li set to open [1][17]. Group 2: Policy Highlights - The "Opinions" focus on six major directions, including optimizing commercial space supply, promoting innovative business formats, and enhancing the quality of business circle environments [3]. Group 3: Land Use and Urban Planning - The plan encourages cross-departmental land use planning to reserve contiguous commercial land for major projects and supports the integration of public green spaces with commercial functions [4]. - It aims to revitalize old buildings and address fragmented commercial land issues in old districts through urban renewal [4]. Group 4: Transportation Optimization - The strategy includes optimizing public transport layouts around business circles, creating a "fast access and slow travel" experience with integrated transport systems [6]. - Key areas like Tianhe Road and Zhujiang New Town will feature a three-dimensional slow travel network [6]. Group 5: Consumer Experience Enhancement - The initiative aims to create diverse consumer scenarios by integrating new business formats such as e-sports and low-altitude tourism, catering to younger and personalized consumer demands [7]. - Support for international brands to establish flagship stores and host global product launches is also included [7]. Group 6: Smart Business Circle Development - The plan promotes the construction of smart business circles with features like intelligent navigation and digital landscape displays to enhance consumer experiences [9]. Group 7: Collaborative Mechanisms - A city-level working group will be established to address challenges in land approval, traffic optimization, and business format upgrades through inter-departmental collaboration [10]. Group 8: International Standards and Bay Area Advantages - The plan includes the development of unique projects like the Nansha International Cruise Home Port and duty-free shopping hubs at Guangzhou North Station and Baiyun Airport [11]. - It aims to enhance international service levels by optimizing payment environments and supporting cross-border consumption [11]. Group 9: Specific Business Circle Development - Various business circles will be developed with specific focuses, such as the Tianhe Road-Zhujiang New Town circle as a world-class comprehensive consumption axis [13]. - The Longchong-Wanbo circle will integrate international tourism and commerce, while the Bai'e Tan circle will focus on cultural and artistic consumption [15][17].

一位推动国有企业向市场化、现代化、国际化方向变革的企业家。 文丨曾梦龙 编辑丨钱杨 在 35 年的职业生涯中，宁高宁扮演最多的角色是 "董事长"。他不仅担任过四家世界 500 强企业的董事长——华润、中粮、中国中化、中国化工，也担任过集 团旗下公司的董事长，如华润雪花啤酒、华润置地、华润电力，还有并购公司的董事长，如蒙牛、尼德拉（Nidera）、先正达（Syngenta）。 但他不喜欢强调 "董事长" 的身份。作为央企领导人，他有着官员级别，如果强调 "董事长"，企业所有人都会围着他转，在哪儿他都是最大。这样不对，会损 害组织的创新与活力，不利于组织发展。 宁高宁自豪的影像，一次是和中化同事合影，大家没注意到他没来就拍了。后来等他来了补拍，自己只是站在侧面的背后招手，粗看根本找不到他；另一次是 培训中粮员工，因为腰疼蹲不下去，他就跪在地上，在白板上接着写字。 2004 年，宁高宁调任为中粮董事长，开启了中粮 "全产业链" 的战略转型。他并购了荷兰的尼德拉和瑞士的来宝农业。这两家公司资产超过 200 亿美元，业务 遍布全球，让中粮走向国际化。2016 年，宁高宁又被委以重任，成为中化集团董事长，主导了中化 "科 ...