机构：中金公司 竞争超预期致商场同店零售额不及预期；大会员业务不及预期。 研究员：张宇/王翼羽/李佳璠/孙元祺 公司动态 公司近况 我们参与了11 月18-19 日华润置地及万象生活联合举办的资本市场开放活动，调研其东北及华北公司、 参访呼和浩特及太原商业与住宅项目、并与公司及属地管理层进行座谈。 评论 传统"城"与"汇"产品线精益求精。公司"一城多汇"战略在东北及华北多个区域已成功落位），我们本次 参访的呼和浩特万象城与太原万象城均为标杆型城市旗舰商业、零售额当地排名领先。其中呼市项目打 破核心区老百货聚集的传统格局、为城市注入新场景与活力，7 月开业实现出租率与开业率双100%、 引入近200 家内蒙区域首店、开业六日零售额突破1 亿元；太原项目每年店铺更新率近30％、新进品牌 中近50％为首店，开业7 年来不断升级品牌组合、实现零售额持续较快增长。 非标产品持续创新。我们本次参访的太原钟楼街为华润万象2021年接管的当地区属平台公司项目。万象 生活充分融合历史古迹与商业消费，实现商户级次升维、老字号焕新、本地品牌孵化，项目入选商务 部"全国示范步行街"创建名单、2025 年初至今零售额同比增近两成。展望 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group is transitioning towards a second growth curve by enhancing its operational capabilities in commercial real estate, particularly in light of declining development business performance [2][4][6]. Group 1: Current Business Performance - Longfor Group reported operating revenue of approximately RMB 22.16 billion for the first ten months of 2025, accounting for 39.7% of its contract sales during the same period [2]. - The company's contract sales have significantly decreased from RMB 290.1 billion in 2021 to RMB 55.8 billion in the first ten months of 2025, with an expectation of falling below RMB 100 billion for the first time since 2017 [4]. - The share of recurring business revenue in total revenue has been increasing, reaching 22.6% in the first half of 2025, but the gross profit margin for recurring business was only 12.6%, indicating insufficient support for overall profitability [7][8]. Group 2: Comparison with Competitors - Longfor's recurring business gross profit margin is significantly lower than that of China Resources Land, which achieved a gross profit margin of 24% in its recurring business [7][8]. - The difference in profitability is attributed to the positioning of their commercial segments, with Longfor targeting middle-income families while China Resources focuses on high-end consumers [8]. Group 3: Strategic Moves and Challenges - The acquisition of the World Trade Center project in Beijing is seen as a strategic opportunity for Longfor to enhance its presence in the high-end commercial market and improve brand visibility [9][10][12]. - The project has the potential to diversify Longfor's commercial product offerings and align with government policies encouraging the integration of commercial and cultural tourism [14]. - However, challenges include the need for significant capital investment for upgrades, uncertainty in rental income due to high vacancy rates (40%-50%), and a lack of experience in renovating older commercial properties [16][17].

Core Insights - The third quarter of 2025 sees a peak in commercial openings, driven by the "National Day" holiday, with 89 new projects totaling approximately 6.93 million square meters [2][5] - The Eastern China region, particularly Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, dominates the commercial project openings, accounting for over 80% of the total [5][7] - High-tier cities maintain their market position, while lower-tier cities, especially county-level markets, show increased commercial activity [7][9] Summary by Sections Opening Statistics - A total of 89 commercial projects opened in Q3 2025, with a commercial area of about 6.93 million square meters. September alone accounted for 59 projects, representing 66% of the quarterly total [2] - Among the new openings, 15 projects were renovations of existing properties, contributing approximately 1.37 million square meters [2][14] Regional Distribution - The Eastern region leads with 32% of openings, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai contributing significantly [5] - Central and Southern China follow, with Central China having 8 openings and Southern China 15 openings, primarily in Guangdong [5] Market Tier Analysis - High-tier cities account for over 70% of new projects, with first-tier cities at 27%, second-tier at 10%, and a notable activity in fourth-tier cities [7] - County-level commercial projects are becoming more active, with several notable openings in various regions [9] City-Specific Highlights - Hangzhou leads with 8 new projects, followed by Chongqing and Wuhan with 6 each. Notable projects include the Hangzhou Asian Games Village and several large-scale developments in Chongqing [11][12] - Beijing and Shanghai also saw significant openings, focusing on urban renewal and high-end commercial spaces [12][15] Major Developers and Projects - Leading commercial management companies like China Resources, Longfor, and Wanda opened multiple projects, with China Resources launching 6 projects, including several in lower-tier cities [13] - High-profile projects include Shenzhen Bay MixC Phase II and Guangzhou's K11 Select, both featuring innovative designs and a mix of retail and cultural spaces [18][19][20] Renovation Projects - The quarter saw 15 renovation projects, with a total area of approximately 1.37 million square meters, indicating a trend towards upgrading existing properties [14] - Examples include the transformation of previously stalled projects into successful commercial spaces, such as the Hohhot MixC [25]

Core Viewpoint - Chaoyang District is positioned as a major economic and consumption area in Beijing, aiming to enhance its role as an international consumption center through a three-year action plan from 2025 to 2027, focusing on consumption upgrades and global resource integration [2] Group 1: Night Economy Development - From 2023 to 2025, Chaoyang District will launch diverse light and shadow scenes and cultural tourism activities, enhancing night-time consumption and community satisfaction [3] - The 2025 Beijing Chaoyang International Light Consumption Season will feature 53 light scenes and connect major areas like Sanlitun and CBD, promoting a vibrant night tourism experience [3][4] Group 2: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The Liangma River Cultural Economic Belt will host unique performances and installations, such as the first water-based light floating stage and aerial light shows, enhancing the cultural tourism appeal [4] - Nearly 100 "light+" cultural tourism activities will be organized, integrating art, light, and commerce to create immersive experiences for visitors [4] Group 3: Commercial Infrastructure and Brand Development - Chaoyang District is developing a world-class consumption landmark with a strategic layout, including the construction of new commercial facilities and enhancing existing ones [5] - The district has introduced 31 new commercial projects, adding over 1.8 million square meters of commercial space, and aims to further enhance its commercial landscape [5] Group 4: Consumer Trends and Brand Strategy - Chaoyang District is focusing on trendy consumption, with significant shares of the city's high-end dining and beverage sectors, and has introduced around 1,900 first stores, leading the city in new brand introductions [6] - The district is also promoting local brands and cultural exports, aiming to create a vibrant international food scene [6] Group 5: Innovative Consumption Experience - The district is implementing policies to integrate cultural, tourism, and commercial activities, enhancing the overall consumer experience through various events and improved infrastructure [7][8] - Future plans include developing cross-border consumption scenarios and enhancing the international consumption environment, aiming to establish Chaoyang as a leading destination for inbound consumption [8]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of China Resources Land and China Resources Mixc Living in the first half of 2025, showcasing stable revenue growth despite market challenges [2][3]. Financial Performance - China Resources Land reported a revenue of RMB 949.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 118.8 billion, up 16.2% [4]. - China Resources Mixc Living achieved a revenue of RMB 85.24 billion, reflecting a growth of 6.5%, with a net profit of RMB 20.11 billion, increasing by 15.0% [2][4]. Market Challenges - The real estate sector has faced multiple challenges since 2022, including demand pressure and fluctuating confidence, leading to a slowdown in market momentum despite supportive policies [3]. - The sales strategy of "exchanging price for volume" has been adopted, resulting in a 25.8% increase in transaction value to RMB 743.6 billion, but a 23.8% decline in core net profit to RMB 3.98 billion [6]. Business Segments - China Resources Land's core net profit from regular income reached RMB 100.0 billion, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, while regular income grew by 2.5% [4][6]. - The operating real estate and asset management businesses have become new growth engines, with operating real estate revenue reaching RMB 121.1 billion, up 5.5% [8]. Future Outlook - China Resources Mixc Living's revenue growth is increasingly reliant on its commercial operations, which generated RMB 32.67 billion, a 14.6% increase, while property management revenue grew only 1.1% [9][10]. - The company plans to pursue strategic mergers and acquisitions to drive future growth, focusing on both internal efficiency and market expansion [14].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (1209.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle is a leading property management and commercial operation service provider, with a robust business model and strong market presence [6][11]. - The company has a clear growth strategy supported by its integrated "2+1" business model, which includes commercial and property management services along with a large membership system [19][22]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected revenue and profit growth outpacing the market, and a commitment to high dividend payouts [28][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle was established in 2017 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020, becoming a component of the Hang Seng Index in 2022 [11]. - The company is controlled by China Resources Land Limited, which holds 72.29% of the shares [16]. Business Model - The company operates under a "2+1" business model, focusing on commercial and property management services, supported by a large membership system [19][22]. - In 2024, the revenue contribution from commercial and property management is expected to be 36.8% and 62.9%, respectively [22]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 17.04 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.63 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 15.4% and 23.9% [5][28]. - The company has maintained a high cash flow, with a net cash position of nearly 10 billion yuan, allowing for generous shareholder returns [34]. Commercial Operations - The commercial segment, primarily shopping centers, is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with 122 centers in operation by the end of 2024 [45]. - The company has a strong market presence, with 50 shopping centers ranked first in local retail sales and 86 in the top three [45]. Property Management - The property management segment is also growing, with a managed area of 4.1 billion square meters and a contracted area of 4.5 billion square meters by the end of 2024 [66]. - The company focuses on both community and urban space management, ensuring a comprehensive service offering [66].

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, over 120 commercial projects are expected to open nationwide, with a total commercial area of approximately 9 million square meters [1] - In the second half of 2025, there are 413 planned commercial projects (shopping centers + independent department stores) with a total commercial building area of about 1.718 million square meters [1] Group 2 - The East China region has the highest number of planned commercial projects, totaling 181, with Shanghai leading at 48 projects [2] - Guangzhou and Beijing are also notable, with 26 and 21 projects planned respectively, while the Northeast region has the least with only 1 project [2] Group 3 - Small commercial projects under 100,000 square meters dominate the planned openings, accounting for over 70%, with those under 50,000 square meters reaching 153 projects, or 37% [5] - Larger commercial projects (100,000-150,000 square meters) and super-large projects (over 150,000 square meters) are gradually decreasing, with only 41 super-large projects planned, making up just 10% [5] Group 4 - Leading commercial management companies are expanding their scale, with over 150 chain product line projects planned, accounting for nearly 40% of the total [6] - Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management has the highest number of planned projects, with 25, while other companies like China Resources and Aegean Group also have significant numbers [7][8] Group 5 - Major projects include Shanghai ITC Maison, which will be the largest single shopping mall in mainland China, with a commercial area of 279,000 square meters [13] - Other notable projects include Shanghai Hongqiao Qianwan Impression City MEGA and Nanjing Light Ring Garden City, both set to open in late 2025 [16][27] Group 6 - The Guangzhou Jun Chao Grantral One is expected to attract over 10 million annual visitors, with a commercial area of 130,000 square meters and over 300 brands [32] - The Beijing Wanjing Well Town will be the largest outlet in Beijing, featuring over 500 brands, with a focus on cultural and artistic experiences [35]

Group 1 - The largest Vanke City in East China, covering approximately 250,000 square meters, is under construction and is expected to be completed by the end of this year [1][2] - The project features a total of 6 above-ground floors and 4 underground floors, integrated with Metro Lines 5 and 10, creating a TOD landmark [1][2] - The architectural design incorporates elements from Nanjing's rich cultural heritage, including inspirations from the ancient city wall bricks, Nanjing paper-cutting, and Jinling folding fans [1][2] Group 2 - The project is part of a larger commercial complex that includes a total area of 1 million square meters, with Vanke City being one of the top three commercial spaces in Nanjing's history [2] - It aims to attract around 600 shops across various sectors such as shopping, dining, family activities, beauty, entertainment, fitness, and art, catering to consumers of all ages [2] - The strategic location of Vanke City in the heart of the Southern New City is expected to consolidate business hubs, commercial prosperity, transportation networks, and cultural resources [2][3] Group 3 - The Southern New City management is focused on enhancing consumer experiences by promoting the historical, cultural, and social values of the airport runway area [3] - The initiative aims to strengthen the economy by attracting flagship stores and hosting various events, positioning the Southern New City as a preferred destination for major city events and trendy consumer activities [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate industry is experiencing a stabilization phase driven by government policies, with light asset sectors showing signs of recovery while heavy asset development is undergoing a cleansing process. Some risky enterprises are stabilizing due to government support [1][3] - New consumption has become a key driver of economic growth in China, contributing over 50% to GDP growth, although consumer spending as a percentage of GDP remains lower than in developed countries [1][4] - The real estate market is shifting towards a stock market model, with technology enhancing operational efficiency in light asset management, such as robots reducing costs by 20%-30% in property management [1][6] Market Dynamics - The real estate market is increasingly concentrated in core cities, with the top six cities accounting for 24.2% of national new home sales. Investment is also focused on first- and second-tier cities, a trend expected to continue [1][7] - Brand-name real estate companies are seeing improved profit margins in land acquisition in first- and second-tier cities, indicating a competitive advantage and potential for growth [1][9] - Since the policy implementation on September 26, 2023, the decline in new home sales has narrowed, but market activity is expected to decrease starting April 2024 [1][10] Investment Opportunities - There is a positive outlook for commercial, intermediary, and property management sectors, particularly for brand developers positioned in core cities. High dividend stocks in heavy asset commercial and light asset management are favored [2][15] - The real estate market is witnessing a divergence, with core cities performing significantly better than others, particularly in sales growth [1][11] Company Insights - China Resources Vientiane Life, a leading commercial management company, is expected to achieve sustained growth of 15%-20%, driven by its strong management capabilities and diverse product lines [16] - New City Holdings is a leader in shopping centers in third- and fourth-tier cities, showing good debt management despite market concerns [16] - Other notable companies include China Resources Land, which is transitioning towards asset management, and Green City Services, which is focusing on brand management and has shown resilience in profit growth [16][18] Future Trends - The real estate industry is moving towards a phase of "survival" to "thriving," with leading companies expected to benefit from improved land acquisition returns and liquidity [14] - The 2024 land market is expected to concentrate further in core cities, with developers showing strong replenishment intentions due to improved sales figures [12] - The overall adjustment process in the real estate sector is progressing positively, with significant reductions in bad debts and inventory impairments expected to conclude soon [14] Conclusion - The real estate sector is undergoing significant changes, with a focus on quality and efficiency driven by technology and government policies. Investment opportunities are emerging in commercial and property management sectors, particularly in core urban areas, while brand developers are positioned for growth amidst market consolidation [1][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the oversupply of commercial spaces in Shanghai, highlighting the rapid opening of new shopping centers while existing ones struggle with low consumer demand and high vacancy rates [7][10][11]. Group 1: Current Commercial Landscape in Shanghai - Shanghai is surrounded by over 400 shopping centers, with an average of one large shopping center for every 80,000 people, compared to Tokyo's one for every 200,000 [3]. - The per capita commercial area in Shanghai is second only to Dubai and is three times that of Tokyo [4]. - Despite the saturation, Shanghai is expected to open around 60 new commercial spaces this year, totaling over 3 million square meters, with Minhang leading in new openings [6]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The retail sales growth in Shanghai was negative in the first quarter of this year, indicating a disconnect between the increase in commercial supply and consumer spending [7][9]. - Many shopping centers are being abandoned or sold off, reflecting a significant turnover in the commercial landscape [11][14]. Group 3: Case Studies of Specific Shopping Centers - The Aegean Shopping Center, opened in 2017, has seen a dramatic decline, with a 90% vacancy rate in its outdoor commercial area [22][33]. - The "The Roof" shopping center, designed by a renowned architect, has become more of a tourist attraction than a shopping destination, with many shops closed or under renovation [47][49]. - The once-thriving Qipu Road wholesale market has seen rental prices plummet from 70,000 to 500 yuan per month, indicating a severe decline in demand [61][90]. Group 4: Trends in Commercial Real Estate - The article notes a trend of commercial real estate companies, such as Wanda, selling off assets to manage debt, with Wanda having sold nearly 90 shopping centers since 2017 [96][99]. - Other companies, including Vanke and various insurance firms, are also engaging in asset sales to improve liquidity and focus on core assets [106][115]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The commercial real estate sector is transitioning from an expansion phase to a focus on efficiency and quality, with a clear shift towards a "stock era" where supply and demand dynamics are changing [120][126]. - Successful commercial spaces are adapting to new consumer preferences and finding ways to thrive amidst the challenges faced by many others [123][125].