投资要点： 盈利预测与投 资建议。公司是中国内地即饮天然椰子水的领导者。 依托泰国供应链、双品牌轻资产运营以及品类上行期高举高打、战略合作大商，公司业绩有望持续高成 长。预计公司2025-2027 年EPS分别为0.16/0.20/0.26 美元/股。结合可比公司估值情况，给予公司35 倍的 PE（25E），目标价43.96 港元/股（按照美元兑港元7.85 汇率计算，首次覆盖并给予"增持"评级。 高成长、高盈利的中国椰子水绝对龙头。公司源自泰国，于2013 年创立品牌if，于2022 年从控股股东 GB 国际业务中重组形成。公司经过10 余年快速发展已成为中国内地即饮天然椰子水的领导者——2024 年市占率接近34%，同时也是全球椰子水饮料市场第二大公司。公司过去3 年营收利润保持高速成长， 同时2024 年实现20%+的利润率以及接近70%的ROE。此外公司正持续发力中国内地以外的国家/地区市 场。 机构：国泰海通证券 根植泰国供应链优势明显，轻资产下高举高打势能强劲。我们认为公司核心竞争力在于：1）根植泰国 的供应链优势：既能打造竞品难以模仿的突出产品力、产品认知，同时采购成本低于竞品。2）轻资产 模式 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The current monetary policy approach has shifted, with a focus on structural and targeted measures rather than traditional broad monetary easing [1][2][5] - The central bank's emphasis is on reducing financing costs for the real economy while maintaining its own financial health, indicating a balanced approach [4][5] - Recent financial data suggests that short-term credit fluctuations may reflect a "de-involution" in the financial sector, with the central bank's support for the real economy remaining robust [3][5] Group 2: Company Performance and Industry Trends - IFBH is identified as a leader in the ready-to-drink coconut water market in mainland China, with a projected EPS growth from 0.16 to 0.26 USD per share from 2025 to 2027 [6][7] - The company benefits from a strong supply chain rooted in Thailand, a light asset model, and a growing consumer preference for coconut water, positioning it for continued high growth [7] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a shift, with traditional consumption facing challenges while new consumption trends are emerging, leading to potential value reassessment for established brands [10][12] Group 3: Specific Company Reports - Tai Chen Guang reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand in the AI data center sector [13][15] - The company is focusing on high-density products and has begun scaling up high-end applications, which is expected to enhance its market position [15][16] - The performance of traditional liquor brands is under pressure due to weak demand and regulatory impacts, but there is potential for recovery as market conditions improve [10][12]

Group 1: New Listings in Hong Kong - Three new stocks, Taide Pharmaceutical, Yunzhisheng, and IFBH, officially listed on the Hong Kong stock market on June 30 [2] - In the dark market prior to listing, IFBH saw a significant increase of over 60%, while Yunzhisheng experienced a slight decline of 2.88% and Taide Pharmaceutical rose by 1.80% [2] - On the official listing day, Yunzhisheng surged by 44.59%, reaching a total market capitalization of HKD 21 billion, while IFBH increased by 42.09% to HKD 10.5 billion, and Taide Pharmaceutical rose by 0.65% to HKD 4.4 billion [2] Group 2: Subscription Results - Yunzhisheng's public offering subscription rate was only 91.66 times, significantly lower than IFBH's 2682.35 times and Taide Pharmaceutical's 301.15 times [5] - The international offering subscription rates were also lower for Yunzhisheng at 1.70 times compared to IFBH's 22.93 times and Taide Pharmaceutical's 2.43 times [5] Group 3: Company Profiles - IFBH is a Thailand-based company specializing in ready-to-drink beverages and ready-to-eat foods, leading the coconut water market in mainland China with a projected market share of approximately 34% in 2024 [6][7] - IFBH's gross margin is expected to increase from 34.7% in 2023 to 36.7% in 2024, with net profit margin rising from 19.2% to 21.1% [6] - Yunzhisheng focuses on AI solutions for daily life and medical applications, holding a market share of 0.6% in China's AI solutions market, ranking fourth [7] - Yunzhisheng previously attempted to list on the STAR Market in China but withdrew its application in 2021 to focus on business and technology development [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of three newly listed stocks in the Hong Kong market, particularly IFBH, which has seen significant demand and price appreciation in the dark market trading phase, indicating a bullish sentiment in the consumer sector [1][2]. Company Overview - IFBH is a Thailand-based company specializing in ready-to-drink beverages and ready-to-eat foods, known for its if brand, which is a leader in the coconut water market in mainland China [3]. - The company was founded in 2013 and has undergone a business restructuring to focus on its international operations, particularly the if and Innococo brands, to meet growing global demand [3][4]. Business Model and Operations - IFBH operates on a light-asset model, employing only 46 staff members, with a focus on marketing, logistics, and minimal administrative roles [4]. - The company relies entirely on third-party manufacturers for product production, allowing it to concentrate on brand development and market expansion [3][4]. Market Position and Performance - IFBH holds the top position in the coconut water beverage market in mainland China with a market share of approximately 34% as of 2024, significantly outpacing its nearest competitor [5]. - In Hong Kong, IFBH also leads the coconut water market with a market share of about 60% [5]. - Globally, IFBH ranks as the second-largest coconut water beverage company, demonstrating impressive growth rates and a gross margin increase from 34.7% in 2023 to 36.7% in 2024 [6]. Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for IFBH improved from 19.2% in 2023 to 21.1% in 2024, reflecting strong financial health and operational efficiency [7]. - The company attracted significant interest from cornerstone investors, including major financial institutions, indicating confidence in its growth potential [7]. Industry Context - The article notes a broader bull market for consumer stocks in Hong Kong, with notable price increases in various food and beverage companies, suggesting a favorable environment for new listings [7]. - Other companies listed alongside IFBH, such as 泰德医药 and 云知声, showed mixed performance in the dark market, with 泰德医药 focusing on peptide CRDMO services and 云知声 providing AI solutions [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of IFBH, a well-known consumer company, in the recent IPO market, with a significant increase in its stock price, while the other two companies, Taide Pharmaceutical and Yunzhisheng, showed modest performance [1][21]. Group 1: IFBH Performance - IFBH's stock price surged over 60% in the dark market, making it the biggest winner among the three newly listed companies [1]. - The company achieved a subscription multiple of 2240 times, with a financing subscription amount reaching 2594.8 billion HKD [3][11]. - IFBH has a market share of approximately 34% in the coconut water beverage market in mainland China, leading the market for five consecutive years [12][16]. Group 2: Company Overview - IFBH, founded in 2013, specializes in ready-to-drink beverages and ready-to-eat foods, particularly coconut water, and is a leader in the Chinese market [11]. - The company operates on a light asset model, relying on third-party manufacturers for production, with only 46 employees as of the end of 2024 [12][13]. - IFBH's gross profit margin improved from 34.7% in 2023 to 36.7% in 2024, and its net profit margin increased from 19.2% to 21.1% during the same period [16][17]. Group 3: Competitors' Performance - Taide Pharmaceutical, a global leader in peptide-focused CRDMO, holds a market share of 1.5% and provides comprehensive services from early discovery to commercial production [21]. - Yunzhisheng, an AI solutions provider, ranks as the fourth largest AI solution provider in China with a market share of 0.6%, focusing on conversational AI products for daily life and medical applications [22][23]. - Both Taide Pharmaceutical and Yunzhisheng exhibited lackluster performance in the dark market, contrasting sharply with IFBH's success [1][21].

Group 1 - The company plans to globally offer 41.6668 million shares, with 4.1668 million shares available in Hong Kong and 37.5 million shares for international offering, along with an over-allotment option of approximately 15% [1] - The expected pricing range for the shares is between HKD 25.30 and HKD 27.80, with the subscription period from June 20 to June 24, 2025, and the shares anticipated to start trading on June 30, 2025 [1][4] - The company is a leading player in the coconut water beverage market in China, holding a market share of approximately 34% in 2024, significantly surpassing its closest competitor [2] Group 2 - The company has established cornerstone investment agreements, with cornerstone investors agreeing to subscribe for shares totaling approximately USD 39.5 million (or about HKD 310 million) [3] - Assuming a share price of HKD 26.50, the net proceeds from the global offering are expected to be around HKD 1.022 billion, with allocations for various strategic initiatives including enhancing logistics capabilities and brand building [4] - The company aims to use about 30% of the proceeds to strengthen its logistics capacity, 22% for brand development, and 20% for strategic alliances and acquisitions in Asia, North America, or Australia [4]

Group 1 - The company IFBH plans to conduct an IPO from June 20 to June 25, 2025, offering 41.67 million shares, with 10% allocated for Hong Kong and 90% for international sales, plus a 15% over-allotment option [1] - The expected share price ranges from HKD 25.3 to HKD 27.8, with trading anticipated to begin on June 30, 2025 [1] - IFBH is a leading ready-to-drink beverage and ready-to-eat food company based in Thailand, recognized for introducing natural coconut water to mainland China [1] Group 2 - The company holds the position of the largest coconut water beverage provider in mainland China, with a market share of approximately 34% in 2024, leading the market for five consecutive years since 2020 [1] - In Hong Kong, IFBH has maintained its status as the top coconut water brand for nine years, with a market share of around 60% in 2024 [1] - The company is the second largest coconut water beverage company globally as of 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company has entered into cornerstone investment agreements, securing approximately USD 39.5 million from cornerstone investors under certain conditions [2] - Assuming a median share price of HKD 26.5, the estimated net proceeds from the global offering would be around HKD 1.022 billion, excluding underwriting commissions and other expenses [2] - The allocation of the net proceeds includes approximately 30% for enhancing warehousing and distribution capabilities, 22% for brand building, and 13% for strengthening market position in mainland China and expanding into Australia, the Americas, and Southeast Asia [2]

Core Viewpoint - IFBH Limited is a rapidly growing beverage and food company rooted in Thailand, leading the coconut water market in China and Hong Kong, with significant market shares and growth potential in the beverage sector [1][3][4]. Company Overview - IFBH Limited has been the market leader in the coconut water beverage sector in mainland China for five consecutive years since 2020, with a projected market share of approximately 34% in 2024, surpassing its second-largest competitor by more than seven times [1][3]. - The company was founded in 2013 and is known for its "if" brand, which pioneered the introduction of ready-to-drink natural coconut water to mainland China [3]. - In Hong Kong, IFBH Limited has maintained a leading position in the coconut water market for nine consecutive years since 2016, with an expected market share of around 60% in 2024 [3]. Market Potential - The ready-to-drink soft drink market in the Greater China region is projected to reach a market size of $138.4 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1%, increasing to $194.7 billion by 2029 [3]. - Coconut water is identified as the fastest-growing segment within this market, expected to grow from $109.33 million in 2024 to $265.18 million by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 19.4% [3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal years 2023 and 2024, IFBH Limited is projected to achieve revenues of approximately $87.44 million and $157.65 million, respectively [4][5]. - The company anticipates net profits of $16.75 million in 2023 and $33.32 million in 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][5].