金融"反内卷"如何影响利率 20251117 摘要 监管对金融反内卷政策表述对未来一段时间内的影响是什么？ 央行副行长陶玲在财经峰会上表示要约束金融行业内卷式竞争，并保持合理盈 利空间。同时央行在三季度货币政策报告中指出，由于内卷式竞争导致贷款利 率下降快、存款利率下降慢，从而压缩了净息差并影响了银行支持实体经济的 能力。因此未来一段时间金融反内卷将成为政策方向。这意味着需要缓解贷款 利率快速下降，同时加快存款负担下降速度。然而事实上，在贷款端选择有限， 因为需求曲线给定，只能在不同价格情况下选择量。在市场经济下，如果用政 求，是长债主要减持来源。 银行减持长债的原因及未来趋势如何？ 银行减持长债主要是由于兑现浮盈和指标压力。一方面，到四季度时，由于去 年年底利率大幅下降，使得金融部门盈利基数较高，因此银行需要兑现浮盈以 维持今年同比稳定。另一方面，一些指标压力，如 EVE（经济价值增加）与一 级资本比例红线为 15%，但今年银行大量配债使得这一比例承压，有突破 15%的可能。因此银行通过降低久期来减轻这种压力。然而从总量上看，银行 不会持续减持，因为负债增速大于贷款资产增速，需要通过配置债券来弥补缺 口。此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the macroeconomic environment, focusing on monetary policy adjustments and their implications for the financial markets and the real economy [4][5][18]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The macroeconomic research highlights a gradual economic slowdown in China, with an opening of policy space to stimulate growth [5]. - The commentary on the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent meetings indicates a shift towards a more dovish stance, suggesting potential interest rate cuts in response to economic conditions [18][20]. Monetary Policy Insights - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy is emphasized in the context of the 2025 Q2 monetary policy execution report, aiming to alleviate financial pressures and promote sustainable growth [4]. - The analysis of the monetary policy execution report indicates a focus on maintaining liquidity while managing inflation expectations [4]. Capital Market Research - The capital market reports suggest that the bond market is facing headwinds, with recommendations to maintain a short to medium-term bond allocation strategy [9][10]. - The commentary on the bond market indicates that volatility is expected to increase, presenting potential opportunities for investors to capitalize on market corrections [11]. Economic Data Commentary - Recent economic data from China shows signs of resilience despite external pressures, with a focus on recovery and growth in key sectors [5]. - The analysis of U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates mixed signals, with employment growth slowing down, which may influence the Fed's future policy decisions [18].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in short-term loans for enterprises, while household credit demand remains under pressure. In August, the social financing scale increased by 623.3 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 417.8 billion yuan [4]. - The report notes that government financing continues to play a crucial role, with new government debt issuance reaching 1.3658 trillion yuan in August, primarily directed towards infrastructure and urban renewal projects [4]. - The monetary supply is improving, with M2 and M1 growing by 8.8% and 6.0% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a marginal activation of deposits [4]. - The report suggests that the pressure on interest margins is easing, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at approximately 3.1% [5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of August, the social financing scale increased by 8.8% year-on-year, while the growth of RMB loans was 6.6% [4]. - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was about 3.1%, reflecting a decrease of 40 basis points year-on-year [4]. Section 2: Loan and Deposit Trends - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 260 billion yuan, driven by a recovery in manufacturing and service sectors [4]. - Household short-term loans saw an increase of 10.5 billion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 61.1 billion yuan, indicating weak demand in personal loans [4]. Section 3: Government Financing and Policy Impact - Government debt issuance in August was 1.3658 trillion yuan, which is a significant increase compared to July, indicating a strong fiscal policy push [4]. - The report anticipates that future credit will focus more on optimizing structure rather than just total volume, with an emphasis on consumer and small business loans [4]. Section 4: Market Outlook - The report suggests that the overall asset quality remains stable, with retail banks expected to show stronger performance due to their wealth management and asset management capabilities [5]. - The anticipated downward pressure on interest margins in 2025 is expected to be significantly less than in 2024, providing a more favorable environment for banks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is experiencing a phenomenon of "involution," characterized by irrational competition that compresses profit margins and poses potential risks to the sector's health [1][5][7]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - As of August, several listed banks reported that their average deposit costs fell below 2%, with specific rates at 1.96%, 1.62%, and 1.78%, but these declines were smaller than the corresponding drops in loan yields, which fell by 0.44, 0.37, and 0.53 percentage points respectively [2][3]. - The net interest margins (NIM) for these banks further narrowed to 2.58%, 1.54%, and 1.78%, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous periods [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China highlighted the significant deviation between deposit and loan rate adjustments, indicating severe competition among banks [3][4]. Group 2: Causes of Involution - The phenomenon of "involution" is attributed to a slowdown in the growth of new business for financial institutions, leading to intensified competition in the existing market [5][6]. - The competition manifests as price wars, particularly in the loan sector, where rates have dropped below 2%, resulting in a race to lower rates and relax credit standards [6][7]. - The pressure for performance and shareholder returns has exacerbated the competition among listed banks, pushing them to expand their scale to meet growth expectations [6][7]. Group 3: Implications for the Banking Sector - The ongoing "involution" is compressing profit margins and increasing operational risks for commercial banks, which could lead to long-term challenges for the industry [7][8]. - The central government has initiated a "de-involution" movement, with various regions implementing measures to curb excessive competition and promote healthier development practices [8][9]. - Experts suggest that banks need to transition from scale-driven growth to value-driven strategies, focusing on innovation and differentiated services to break the cycle of "involution" [9][10].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The current monetary policy approach has shifted, with a focus on structural and targeted measures rather than traditional broad monetary easing [1][2][5] - The central bank's emphasis is on reducing financing costs for the real economy while maintaining its own financial health, indicating a balanced approach [4][5] - Recent financial data suggests that short-term credit fluctuations may reflect a "de-involution" in the financial sector, with the central bank's support for the real economy remaining robust [3][5] Group 2: Company Performance and Industry Trends - IFBH is identified as a leader in the ready-to-drink coconut water market in mainland China, with a projected EPS growth from 0.16 to 0.26 USD per share from 2025 to 2027 [6][7] - The company benefits from a strong supply chain rooted in Thailand, a light asset model, and a growing consumer preference for coconut water, positioning it for continued high growth [7] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a shift, with traditional consumption facing challenges while new consumption trends are emerging, leading to potential value reassessment for established brands [10][12] Group 3: Specific Company Reports - Tai Chen Guang reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand in the AI data center sector [13][15] - The company is focusing on high-density products and has begun scaling up high-end applications, which is expected to enhance its market position [15][16] - The performance of traditional liquor brands is under pressure due to weak demand and regulatory impacts, but there is potential for recovery as market conditions improve [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The current financial support for the real economy from the central bank may not be weak, despite the unchanged stance on "loose monetary policy." The specific operational methods and transmission paths of "loose monetary policy" have undergone substantial changes compared to the past [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's focus has shifted towards a more structural and targeted approach to "cost reduction," moving away from traditional methods that rely on the interbank market and policy rate cuts [1]. - The recent emphasis on "preventing fund circularity" indicates that the central bank's current attention is not on further increasing nominal looseness but rather on optimizing structure and improving transmission efficiency to support the real economy [1][2]. - The second quarter monetary policy report continues to emphasize the "cost reduction" theme, suggesting that the central bank is satisfied with the current state of interbank market looseness and may not have strong motivation for further active easing [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Data Analysis - The short-term fluctuations in credit data for July can be viewed as a result of "anti-involution," with the focus on enhancing the quality and efficiency of credit growth rather than merely increasing credit scale [2]. - The resilience of social financing data, supported by government bonds, contrasts with the relatively average credit data, indicating a nuanced financial environment [2]. - The fluctuations in M1 and M2, along with the movement of deposits, suggest that the outflow of bank deposits may continue, potentially weakening banks' pricing power in the bond market, especially for long-term bonds [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates - The introduction of fiscal interest subsidy policies represents a new approach to reducing financing costs for the real economy, balancing the need for economic stability and risk prevention [3]. - The recent fiscal interest subsidy can be seen as a form of targeted "fiscal interest rate cut," which aims to stabilize interest margins while reducing costs [3]. - The space for further policy rate cuts is narrowing, as the central bank's proactive easing response to growth pressures is alleviated by the implementation of fiscal interest subsidies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy stance has shifted, indicating that "this" wide monetary policy is not the same as "that" wide monetary policy, with changes in operational methods and transmission paths [3][4][5] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's focus has shifted towards a more structural and targeted approach to "cost reduction" rather than traditional methods of lowering policy rates through interbank market mediation [3] - The emphasis on "preventing fund circularity" suggests that the central bank is not inclined to further enhance nominal easing, but rather to optimize structure and improve transmission efficiency to support the real economy [3][4] - The second quarter monetary policy report continues to prioritize "cost reduction," indicating a cautious stance towards further nominal easing [3][5] Group 2: Financial Data Analysis - The short-term fluctuations in credit data in July can be interpreted as a result of "anti-involution" efforts, with the central bank's support for the real economy remaining robust [4] - The report highlights that the focus on the quality and effectiveness of credit growth is increasing, with less emphasis on the scale of credit [4] - The current M1-M2 fluctuations and deposit migration may lead to a sustained outflow of bank deposits, affecting banks' pricing power in the bond market [4] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates - The introduction of fiscal interest subsidies represents a new approach to reducing financing costs while maintaining healthy interest margins [5] - The central bank's proactive easing response to growth pressures is expected to diminish, leading to a contraction in the space for policy rate cuts [5] - The report conveys a neutral to cautious outlook for the bond market, with limited room for further monetary easing and a stable interbank funding environment [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the monetary policy and financial market conditions in the context of the Chinese economy, focusing on the central bank's strategies and their implications for various sectors, including the bond and stock markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Stance**: The central bank emphasizes a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthens counter-cyclical adjustments to address domestic and international economic conditions, indicating a commitment to stabilize economic growth [2][6][10] 2. **Market Interest Rate Trends**: Recent increases in market interest rates reflect a shift in investor expectations regarding monetary policy easing, despite weak economic data in July. This suggests a cautious approach from the central bank in response to economic pressures [3][4] 3. **Stock and Bond Market Dynamics**: The simultaneous rise in stock prices and bond yields may not be sustainable, as the bond market is expected to revert to fundamentals. Investor confidence remains strong, but the central bank maintains a vigilant stance [4][10] 4. **Prevention of Fund Circulation**: Measures to prevent fund circulation aim to reduce arbitrage opportunities by raising loan rates and lowering deposit rates. This approach is not expected to tighten liquidity but may impact bank profitability [5][10] 5. **Future Policy Outlook**: The central bank plans to maintain liquidity, lower financing costs, and improve financing conditions while coordinating with fiscal policy to ensure stable economic development [6][7] 6. **Reverse Repo Operations**: The central bank's early reverse repo operation on August 7 was intended to align with fiscal policy and demonstrate flexibility in responding to market needs. This reflects the importance of liquidity management tools [7][8] 7. **"Anti-Competition" in Finance**: The current financial environment emphasizes optimizing credit structure over sheer volume, which may lead to reduced credit issuance and a potential new round of asset scarcity [9][10] 8. **Impact on Bond Market**: A loose monetary environment with tight credit conditions is generally favorable for the bond market, despite a potential decrease in overall social financing scale, which could lead to asset shortages [10][12] 9. **Service Consumption Promotion**: Addressing supply-demand imbalances requires focusing on both supply-side improvements and demand-side policies to boost household income, which is crucial for supporting the economy [11] 10. **Outlook for Government Bonds**: A positive medium-term outlook for the government bond market is anticipated, with 10-year bond yields expected to fluctuate around 1.5%. Non-economic factors may also influence future market trends [12] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The central bank's increasing emphasis on transparency in policy communication and the detailed disclosure of liquidity tools usage is noteworthy, as it reflects a shift towards more proactive engagement with market participants [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that while there are significant internal and external risks to China's economy, the long-term positive support conditions and fundamental trends remain unchanged [2]. Group 1: Economic Situation Assessment - The report highlights that the global economic growth momentum is weak, with uncertainties in the recovery process, exacerbated by U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, which may increase inflationary pressures [2]. - Domestically, the economy faces challenges such as insufficient effective demand, but there are solid supports for stable growth in the second half of the year [2]. - The inflation outlook has shifted from a low rebound to a more positive assessment, with policies aimed at boosting consumption expected to help prices recover reasonably [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - The monetary policy maintains a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on balancing financial support for the real economy while ensuring the health of the financial system [3]. - The report emphasizes the need to prevent "funds idling" and to ensure that the easing of monetary policy does not excessively narrow banks' net interest margins [3][4]. - The concept of "anti-involution" has become a key theme in financial policy, focusing on both price and quantity aspects to stabilize financing costs and promote lower overall financing costs [3]. Group 3: Structural Policies - The report reveals a significant evolution in the structure of credit allocation over the past decade, with a shift from heavy asset industries to high-quality development sectors, with loans in the "five major articles" now accounting for about 70% [5][6]. - The focus of future structural policies will be on inclusive finance, technological innovation, and expanding consumption, with an emphasis on supporting small and medium-sized enterprises and improving service supply [8][9]. - The report identifies challenges in service consumption supply, including insufficient total supply and quality issues, which need to be addressed to enhance consumer spending [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the monetary policy report emphasizes "broad monetary policy, stable credit, structural adjustment, and supply enhancement," indicating a clear intention to regulate bank credit issuance and support economic transformation [1] - The monetary policy maintains a general tone of "moderate easing" while allowing for "dynamic adjustments based on the situation," suggesting that total monetary policy tools may still be applicable if the economy further slows down [1][9] - The report reiterates that "preventing empty circulation" does not imply a tightening of funds, as the central bank aims to create a suitable financial environment and strengthen coordination with fiscal policy [1][10] Group 2 - Liquidity is likely to remain loose, as indicated by the central bank's actions, including early net injections and support for government bond issuance [2][14] - The focus has shifted from the total volume of credit to optimizing the credit structure, with expectations of weak credit growth in the second half of the year [2][16] - The central bank is promoting service consumption while emphasizing supply-side measures, indicating a shift in consumer behavior from goods to services [2][21] Group 3 - The report highlights concerns about the global economic environment, noting that the recovery process remains uncertain and that domestic effective demand is insufficient [1][9] - The bond market is experiencing upward pressure on interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to approximately 1.75% [22] - The report indicates a rebound in the scale of wealth management products, with a total of 31.32 trillion yuan in outstanding wealth management products as of August 10 [28]