《报告》认为当前我国经济面临不少内外部风险挑战，但长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变。 国际方 面， 当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，全球经济增长动能总体偏弱，经济复苏进程仍有不确定性，美国关税政策 推升全球衰退风险，关税和地缘政治紧张局势可能进一步加剧物价上涨压力，需关注全球财政的可持续性和金 融市场波动风险。 国内方面， 我国经济运行依然面临有效需求不足等风险挑战，但是下半年保持稳定增长有 坚实支撑。 通胀方面，《报告》研判更为积极，将物价"保持低位回升态势"改为"温和回升积极因素增多"。 近期"反内 卷"和提振消费两项政策，有助于推动物价合理回升。 二、政策立场：保持适度宽松，落实金融"反内卷" 货币政策保持"适度宽松"基调不变。 一方面，"宽松"仍是主基调。7月我国经济金融减速慢行，内需"三驾马 车"与生产均有所放缓，私人部门融资需求显著放缓。若未来经济增长进一步承压，总量政策可能进一步宽 松。另一方面，"宽松"仍需适度，《报告》时隔一个季度后重提"防范资金空转"，重申"把握好金融支持实体 经济和保持自身健康性的平衡"，指向总量政策宽松幅度相对有限。 值得注意的是，"反内卷"成为金融政策主线，体现在价格和数 ...

二季度货政报告发布，可以总结为"宽货币、稳信用、调结构、重供给"，规范银行业信贷投放和配合经济转型的意味明显。对于未来，货币政策要配合顶 层规划，但仍旧保留"适度宽松"的总基调和"基于形势动态调整"的灵活性，未来如果经济进一步失速、尤其是非经济因素发酵，总量型货币政策工具依旧 有其可能性。此外，防空转并不意味着资金收紧，央行要营造适宜的金融环境、加强与财政配合。对于债市，短期内我们认为利率维持"上有顶"的格局， 10年国债上限在1.75%左右，调整即买入，不必过度悲观;季度维度继续看多，10年国债可以看1.5%。 总量型政策仍然可以期待。货币政策"适度宽松"的总基调不变，强化逆周期调节，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度 和节奏，总量型政策有其可能性。 促服务消费，但强调供给侧。央行从专栏角度对服务消费表示关注，与7月政治局会议"在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消费新的增长点"的要求一致。 但政策着力点仍从供给侧发力，后续关注需求侧政策和稳定收入的举措。 摘要 风险提示：政策理解可能存在偏误，宏观经济超预期，海外风险事件超预期。 报告目录 再提"防空转"，不代表资金收紧。一方面，当前 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-08-15 沪指一度突破关键点位，股指冲高回落 市场分析 金融"反内卷"。国内方面，近期，上海、广东、浙江、安徽等地的金融监管局、银行业协会提出"反内卷"相关举 措，剑指"房贷返点、车贷返佣、变相贴息"等行业现象，呼吁辖内银行机构跳出低水平价格战，告别"赔本赚吆喝"， 采取差异化竞争策略，推动银行业持续健康发展。海外方面，美国上周初请失业金人数下降3000人至22.4万人，低 于预期，维持在2021年11月以来低位。前一周续请失业金人数降至195.3万人，略低于预期，但仍徘徊于2021年以 来高位。 沪指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数冲高回落，上证指数跌0.46%收于3666.44点，创业板指跌1.08%。行业方面， 板块指数跌多涨少，仅非银金融行业收红，国防军工、通信、钢铁、纺织服饰行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交 金额增加至2.3万亿元。海外市场，美国7月PPI同比飙升至3.3%，为今年2月以来最高水平，远超预期的2.5%；环 比则上涨0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅。美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，标普500指数涨0.03%报6468.54点。 IH增仓。期货市场，基差方面，期指 ...

Group 1: Banking Industry Insights - The banking sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in credit, with a notable decrease in new loans in July, reflecting a reduction of 426.3 billion yuan year-on-year [5][6] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 9.0% year-on-year, while the growth rate of M2 and M1 was 8.8% and 5.6%, respectively, indicating a marginal activation of deposits [5][6] - Government financing remains strong, with new government bonds issued amounting to 1.244 trillion yuan in July, supporting the rapid growth of TSF [7][8] - Future credit focus will shift towards optimizing structure while maintaining total volume, with an emphasis on consumer and small business loans [8][9] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous months, indicating a stable lending environment [10][11] Group 2: Tire Market Analysis - The tire market is witnessing a preemptive demand from Europe and the US, with natural rubber prices rising, providing support for tire prices [12] - The export demand for tires has been affected by tariffs and anti-dumping policies, leading to a shift in demand patterns [12] - Long-term strategies for tire companies include global expansion and brand enhancement to mitigate trade barriers [12] Group 3: Company Performance Review - Anjias - Anjias reported a revenue of 302 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.56%, with a significant improvement in Q2 performance [13][14] - The company’s domestic revenue grew by 10.07%, while overseas revenue increased by 18.29%, indicating robust international market penetration [15][16] - Anjias is focusing on high-margin products and has made significant investments in R&D, with a 33.29% increase in R&D expenses [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong growth in non-interest income for Changshu Bank, with an increase in cash dividend ratios [4]. - The report notes that government financing continues to support social financing, with M1 growth improving [4]. - The report emphasizes that credit demand has weakened in July due to seasonal factors and the cleaning of overdue accounts, leading to a significant reduction in loans [4]. - The report suggests that future credit will focus more on optimizing structure while maintaining total volume, with a shift towards consumer and operational loans [4]. - The report indicates that monetary supply continues to improve, with an increase in deposits [5]. - The report mentions that the pressure on interest margins is easing, with new loan rates remaining stable despite recent cuts in benchmark rates [5]. - The investment recommendation is to focus on stable dividends and recovery potential, particularly in state-owned banks and leading small and medium-sized banks [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the July financial data released by the People's Bank of China, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.0% in social financing scale [4]. - It notes that the weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2% in July, down from 3.3% in the first half of the year [4]. Credit Market Analysis - The report highlights a seasonal decline in credit, with a reduction of 426.3 billion yuan in July loans, which is a significant drop compared to the previous year [4]. - It mentions that the government has accelerated bond issuance, contributing to a faster growth rate in social financing [4]. Monetary Supply and Deposits - The report states that M2 and M1 grew by 8.8% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively, indicating improved monetary supply conditions [5]. - It emphasizes that the activation of deposits is driven by several factors, including changes in exchange rate expectations and improved cash flow for small and medium enterprises [5]. Interest Margin Outlook - The report indicates that the downward pressure on interest margins is expected to be less significant in 2025 compared to 2024, with stable loan rates despite recent cuts [5]. - It suggests that if monetary policy is further loosened, interest margin pressures may increase, leading to adjustments in deposit rates [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on banks with stable dividends and recovery potential, particularly state-owned banks and leading small and medium-sized banks, as government financing remains a strong driver for bank growth [5].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 08 月 13 日 七月金融数据： 核心观点： 结论与启示： 近期，权益市场对债市形成情绪压制，看股做债成为影响利率走势的主要因 素。但是，由于两类资产定价基础不同，股债跷跷板只是现象，并非规律，这 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 马瑞超 S1090522100002 maruichao@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 相关报告 1、《量松在即——一季度《货 币政策执行报告》解读》2025- 05-12 喜忧参半 ——7 月金融数据点评 频率：每月 2、《CPI 与 PPI 剪刀差或进一 步扩大——2025 年 4 月通胀数 据点评》2025-05-11 3、《出口增速超预期后怎么 走？——2025 年 4 月进出口数 据点评》2025-05-09 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1） 社融新增 1.16 万亿，增速 9.0%（前值 8.9%） 2） 新增人民币贷款-500 亿，增速 6.9%（前值 7.1%） 3） M2 同比增长 8.8%（前值 8.3%），M1 增速 5.6%（前值 4.6% ...

《通知》直指当前市场存在的发行定价扭曲、非市场化发行及人为干预簿记过程等问题，要求主承销商 应建立健全承销报价内部管理制度，综合评估项目成本、合理确定报价，不得以低于成本的承销费报价 参与债券项目竞标；发行人应当按照市场化原则，合理设置比选评分指标，不得干扰主承销商独立、客 观的报价决策。 "反内卷"的风吹到了金融业，而且持续升温。近日，中国银行间市场交易商协会发布《关于规范银行间 债券市场簿记建档发行及承销有关工作的通知》（以下简称《通知》），明确要求主承销商"不得以低 于成本的承销费报价参与债券项目竞标"。 700元"地板价"引发自律调查 这一政策出台的背景，是行业内愈演愈烈的低价竞争。7月11日，交易商协会对广发银行二级资本债券 项目中的6家主承销商启动自律调查，其导火索是堪称"地板价"的承销服务费。根据广发银行7月10日公 示的中标结果显示，6家机构以合计63448元的承销服务费中标，其中，中国银河证券和兴业银行报价仅 700元，广发证券报价1050元，国泰海通证券报价4998元，中信建投证券和中信证券分别为3.5万元和2.1 万元。将总承销服务费折算至每家机构，平均每家机构的服务费仅1万元左右。 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent notice from the China Interbank Market Dealers Association aims to regulate the bond underwriting market by addressing issues such as distorted pricing, non-market-based issuance, and interference in the underwriting process, emphasizing that underwriting fees must not be quoted below cost [1][4][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Measures - The notice reiterates that underwriters must not quote fees below cost, requiring main underwriters to establish internal management systems for pricing and to assess project costs comprehensively [5][6]. - This is the second notice issued within a month regarding low underwriting fees, indicating a growing concern over practices such as low-price underwriting and potential collusion among market participants [6][7]. - The association has initiated self-regulatory investigations into firms that engaged in low-cost bidding, highlighting the need for stricter compliance and accountability [6][9]. Group 2: Pricing Mechanism and Underwriter Selection - The notice mandates that issuers and main underwriters adhere to market principles when determining pricing ranges, ensuring that these ranges reflect comparable bond rates or fair market prices [8]. - It limits the number of underwriters based on the issuance scale, allowing a maximum of two underwriters for short-term and ultra-short-term notes, three for issues between 2 billion and 5 billion, and four for issues above 5 billion [8]. - The notice also emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between underwriting and investor participation, ensuring that underwriting does not crowd out legitimate market demand [8]. Group 3: Complaint and Integrity Mechanism - The association plans to establish a complaint and integrity public disclosure mechanism to address violations of laws and self-regulatory rules during the issuance process [9]. - Complaints regarding interference in pricing, low-cost bidding, and other unethical practices will be documented and made public, promoting transparency and accountability in the bond market [9].

Group 1 - The recent focus on financial "anti-involution" is aimed at addressing the disorderly competition within the financial industry to improve service quality [1] - Experts emphasize the need for a balance between supporting economic growth and preventing risks, advocating for rational competition and stability in the financial system [1] - From a macro perspective, policies should enhance support for the real economy while maintaining the stability of banking operations [1] Group 2 - Future monetary policy should adopt a more refined balance strategy between "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks," avoiding excessive easing that could lead to long-term risks [2] - The central bank plans to strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to maintain healthy competition in the deposit and loan markets [2] - Measures may include enhancing self-discipline mechanisms for interest rate pricing and improving the assessment systems for financial institutions [2] Group 3 - The central bank aims to continue supporting local government financing platforms and manage risks in key areas [3] - A macro-prudential management framework will be improved to monitor risks in local government debt, small financial institutions, and real estate credit [3] - Different policies and tools will be employed to address risks in three key areas, including extending financial support for debt restructuring [3]