Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, with an upward adjustment in profit forecasts for key companies like Yili and Mengniu [13]. Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is experiencing a prolonged down cycle in raw milk prices due to rigid supply and weak demand, with prices expected to fall below production costs by July 2024 [1][2]. - The core dairy product categories have seen a decline in both volume and price since 2021, leading companies to adopt discount promotions to reduce inventory, further lowering raw milk purchase prices [1][4]. - The potential for a market reversal in raw milk prices may arise from the active elimination of high-yield farms and the loss of cost-effectiveness of imported bulk powder [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From 2018 to 2021, China's milk production increased, with fresh milk prices growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4%, while imported milk powder prices fell by 5% [1][2]. - The current supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by high production costs and a significant number of farms facing prolonged losses [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The B-end dairy product consumption is growing rapidly, with fresh milk accounting for approximately 45% of this market, although it is currently dominated by imported brands [6]. - Domestic companies are accelerating their entry into the B-end market, benefiting from policy support and cost advantages [6]. Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable decline in demand for high-consumption categories like ambient milk and yogurt, with significant inventory pressures prompting companies to discount products [4][10]. - The trend towards low-temperature and health-oriented products is evident, with flavored milk beverages emerging as a new growth point [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - Yili has a stronger channel bargaining power compared to Mengniu, with a more efficient deep distribution model and a diversified strategy that has led to leading market shares in several segments [12]. - The report predicts stable performance for liquid milk over the next 2-3 years, while non-liquid dairy products are expected to achieve double-digit growth [13].

行业数据显示，近两年，奶酪产业创新应用不断，企业均在寻找儿童奶酪棒之外的第二大单品。根据市 场调研机构马上赢数据统计，2024年第四季度，奶酪领域同比的存续、上新、消失的SKU（最小存货单 位）数量分别为541个、264个、141个。新品SKU数量占整体SKU数量的比重较高，显著高于消失的 SKU数量，可见类目新品迭代与汰换速度较快，创新也较为丰富。 尼尔森IQ数据显示，2025年一季度，体量大的儿童奶酪销售占比下滑，成人零食类奶酪呈现高增长， 佐餐奶酪也有不错发展。廖为新也指出，奶酪市场经历阶段性波动后，近期已逐步展现积极向好的发展 态势，除了产品线可拓展大童、成人零食、餐桌奶酪，还可以从稳固核心人群与破圈、全面布局细分品 类、发力全渠道三方面入手寻求增长机遇。 历经4年调整，奶酪市场迎来复苏迹象。在7月13日举行的第十六届奶业大会"中国奶酪产业发展研讨 会"上，来自市场调研机构的数据显示，2025年上半年，奶酪品类销售额降幅收窄，品类渗透率也有所 提升。针对全年龄段的零食化产品和针对企业端的专业化产品，成为奶酪行业创新的两大方向。 随着市场需求提升，国内原奶价格及生产成本降低，越来越多的奶酪企业瞄准原制干 ...