原木期货11合约

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原木周报(LG):原木期货11合约震荡运行-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 09:11
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报(LG)】 原木期货11合约震荡运行 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-09-22 杨璐琳 从业资格证号:F3042528 投资咨询证号:Z0015194 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木:原木期货11合约震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 据木联调研,2025年08月,新西兰原木离港船只约44条月环比减少3条,总发货量约166.6万方,较7月173.3万方减少4%。 其中,35条船发往中国,发货量约136.0万方,占比82%,较7月147.6万方减少8%,部分外商报价相较于2025年8月有所下调。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计,9月8日-9月14日,中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.29万方,较上周增加2.78%;其中,山东港口针叶原木日均出库 量为3.44万方,较上周增加2.99%;江苏港口针叶原木日均出库量为2.22万方,较上周增加 ...
原周报(LG):原木期货11合约偏弱震荡-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 08:29
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "volatile", indicating that the log futures are expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of logs is bearish as the number of departing ships from New Zealand and the total shipment volume decreased in August 2025, and some foreign merchants lowered their quotes. The demand, inventory, and trade profit are neutral. The overall investment view is that the log futures will be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82% and an 8% decrease from July. Some foreign merchants lowered their quotes [3] - **Demand**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,400 cubic meters, a 5.65% decrease, and Jiangsu ports had 21,600 cubic meters, a 4.85% decrease [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters and a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters and a 2.05% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Trade Profit**: After the decline in the foreign market quotes, the import profit has been repaired. The import profit of domestic traders for 3.9 medium A logs is about - 38 yuan/m³ [3] - **Investment View**: The log futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategies for unilateral and arbitrage trading are provided. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, the log futures contracts were in a weak and volatile state. The foreign market quotes dropped significantly in September 2025, and some spot specifications also declined. However, the inventory has not reached the inflection point of accumulation, so the overall trend is weak [7] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log futures and spot prices are presented in a graph, showing the relationship between the basis, futures closing price, and spot price [8] - **Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 22,108 lots, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2511 was 15,449 lots, a 4.4% decrease from the previous week [12] - **Spot Prices**: As of September 12, 2025, the prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu for different specifications are stable [16] PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a 10.26% month - on - month decrease and a 3.90% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a 6.57% year - on - year decrease. The import volume from New Zealand and of radiata pine also showed different changes [20] - **Shipping and Shipment**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from July [22] - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine is 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, with an import profit of about - 38 yuan/m³. In August 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 125 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, with an export profit of about 1.4 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [29] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease. The inventory in different regions and of different species also changed [33] - **Outbound Volume**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. The outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu ports also decreased [36] - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was 1,270 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged, and in Jiangsu, it was - 14.6 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease [39]
原周报(LG):原木期货11合约震荡运行-20250901
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 05:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the log market is "oscillation". The 11 - contract of log futures is expected to oscillate in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the log market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation. It concludes that all these factors are currently neutral, and the log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range. The key influencing factor to watch is the domestic demand situation [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55% [3]. - **Demand**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in the overseas market quotation, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of August 29, 2025, the trader's profit was - 69 yuan/m³ [3]. - **Valuation**: The delivery cost range of the 11 - contract is between 820 - 840 yuan/m³, and the overall valuation level is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: The log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: /; Arbitrage: /; Risk to watch: Domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The 09 - contract showed weak performance, and the 11 - contract oscillated. Last week, the log futures contract converged towards the receiving price, and the overall price showed weak performance. The delivery volume of the 09 - contract was low, and the fluctuation during the delivery month is expected to be limited. For the 11 - contract, there are currently no major contradictions, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has not arrived. It is currently expected to be in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [6]. - **Futures Position**: As of August 29, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 18,930 lots, a 33.5% decrease from last week. The position of the main 2509 contract was 13,583 lots, a 13.5% increase from last week [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of August 29, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 730/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Log Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.90%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.57%. In July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4581 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.35%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 10.7066 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. In July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 1.3972 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 13.04% and a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. From January to July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 10.4161 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.25% [22]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment and Delivery Volume**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55%. In terms of ports, 6 ships are expected to arrive at Shandong ports, with an arrival volume of about 212,000 cubic meters, accounting for 48%, and the arrival volume increased by 14% week - on - week. 5 ships are expected to arrive at Jiangsu ports, with an arrival volume of about 148,000 cubic meters, accounting for 34%, and the arrival volume increased by 131% week - on - week [25]. - **Trade Profit**: As of August 2025, the CFR quotation of radiata pine was 116 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 815 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 69 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week. The spruce/fir inventory was 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.86 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.32% from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 994,995 cubic meters, an increase of 1.22% from last week [33]. - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [35]. - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of August 22, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was 1280 yuan/m³, an increase of 20 yuan/m³ week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was - 20 yuan/m³, an increase of 4 yuan/m³ week - on - week [38].