1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the log market is "oscillation". The 11 - contract of log futures is expected to oscillate in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the log market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation. It concludes that all these factors are currently neutral, and the log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range. The key influencing factor to watch is the domestic demand situation [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55% [3]. - **Demand**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in the overseas market quotation, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of August 29, 2025, the trader's profit was - 69 yuan/m³ [3]. - **Valuation**: The delivery cost range of the 11 - contract is between 820 - 840 yuan/m³, and the overall valuation level is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: The log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: /; Arbitrage: /; Risk to watch: Domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The 09 - contract showed weak performance, and the 11 - contract oscillated. Last week, the log futures contract converged towards the receiving price, and the overall price showed weak performance. The delivery volume of the 09 - contract was low, and the fluctuation during the delivery month is expected to be limited. For the 11 - contract, there are currently no major contradictions, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has not arrived. It is currently expected to be in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [6]. - **Futures Position**: As of August 29, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 18,930 lots, a 33.5% decrease from last week. The position of the main 2509 contract was 13,583 lots, a 13.5% increase from last week [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of August 29, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 730/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Log Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.90%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.57%. In July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4581 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.35%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 10.7066 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. In July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 1.3972 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 13.04% and a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. From January to July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 10.4161 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.25% [22]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment and Delivery Volume**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55%. In terms of ports, 6 ships are expected to arrive at Shandong ports, with an arrival volume of about 212,000 cubic meters, accounting for 48%, and the arrival volume increased by 14% week - on - week. 5 ships are expected to arrive at Jiangsu ports, with an arrival volume of about 148,000 cubic meters, accounting for 34%, and the arrival volume increased by 131% week - on - week [25]. - **Trade Profit**: As of August 2025, the CFR quotation of radiata pine was 116 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 815 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 69 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week. The spruce/fir inventory was 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.86 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.32% from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 994,995 cubic meters, an increase of 1.22% from last week [33]. - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [35]. - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of August 22, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was 1280 yuan/m³, an increase of 20 yuan/m³ week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was - 20 yuan/m³, an increase of 4 yuan/m³ week - on - week [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the log spot market was basically stable, port inventories decreased, and the outbound volume was stable. Spot prices rose due to increased inquiries from spot - futures traders. The 5.9 - meter medium A log market price is 790 - 800 yuan/m³, and the 5.9 - meter small A log market price is 730 - 740 yuan/m³. The futures delivery cost is about 820 - 830 yuan/m³. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, the log warehouse receipt volume has increased significantly, and the futures price is under pressure and is expected to run weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9 - meter medium A has a spot price of 750 yuan/m³, 5.9 - meter medium A is 790 yuan/m³, 3.9 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A is 730 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, 4 - meter medium A is 770 yuan/m³, 6 - meter medium A is 800 yuan/m³, 4 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, and 6 - meter small A is 750 yuan/m³ [4]. Outer - disk Quotation - The outer - disk quotation for 4 - meter medium A radiation pine is 113 - 117 dollars/JAS cubic meter, with a 6 - dollar increase compared to the 110 - 111 dollars/JAS cubic meter in June [4]. Futures Price - The LG2511 contract has a current price of 815 yuan/m³, a decrease of 8.5 yuan compared to the previous price. The LG2509 contract has a current price of 801 yuan/m³, a decrease of 3.5 yuan compared to the previous price [4]. Downstream Wood Square Price - In Shandong, the price of 4000*50*100 wood squares remains at 1270 yuan. In Jiangsu, it has increased from 1260 yuan to 1280 yuan [4]. Supply (Import Volume) - In June 2025, the import volume of New Zealand logs was 167.3 (in ten thousand m³), North American logs was 9.5 (in ten thousand m³), and European logs was 19 (in ten thousand m³). The shipping volume from New Zealand to China from August 4th - 10th was 26 (in ten thousand JASm³) [4]. Inventory - On August 15th, the total inventory was 306 (in ten thousand m³), with Shandong inventory at 185 (in ten thousand m³) and Jiangsu inventory at 8 (in ten thousand m³). The inventory has been decreasing compared to previous periods [4]. Demand (Daily Outbound Volume) - On August 15th, the daily outbound volume was 6.33 (in ten thousand m³), with Shandong's outbound volume at 3.59 (in ten thousand m³) and Jiangsu's at 2.32 (in ten thousand m³). The outbound volume has been relatively stable [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint - The log spot market was basically stable this week, with port inventories decreasing, outbound volume remaining stable, and spot prices rising due to increased inquiries from futures - spot traders. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, with a significant increase in log warehouse receipts, and the futures price is under pressure and expected to operate weakly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9 - meter medium A is 750 yuan/m³, 5.9 - meter medium A is 790 yuan/m³, 3.9 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, 5.9 - meter small A is 730 yuan/m³; in Jiangsu, 4 - meter medium A is 770 yuan/m³, 6 - meter medium A is 800 yuan/m³, 4 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, 6 - meter small A is 750 yuan/m³ [4] Outer - disk Quotation - The price range of 4 - meter medium A radiation pine in July is 113 - 117 dollars/JAS m³, up 6 dollars from June's 110 - 111 dollars/JAS m³ [4] Futures Price - LG2511 contract is 823.5 yuan/m³, up 2 yuan from the previous period; LG2509 contract is 804.5 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan from the previous period [4] Downstream Wood Square Price - In Shandong, the price of 4000*50*100 wood square is 1270 yuan, unchanged from the previous period; in Jiangsu, it is 1280 yuan, up 20 yuan from the previous period [4] Supply (Import Volume) - In June 2025, New Zealand's import volume was 167.3 million m³, North American timber was 9.5 million m³, and European timber was 19 million m³. New Zealand's shipment volume to China from August 4 - 10 was 26 million JAS m³, down from 27 million JAS m³ from July 28 - August 3 [4] Inventory - On August 15, the total inventory was 306 million m³, with Shandong's inventory at 185 million m³ and Jiangsu's at 98 million m³ [4] Demand (Daily Outbound Volume) - On August 15, the daily outbound volume was 6.33 million m³, with Shandong's at 3.59 million m³ and Jiangsu's at 2.32 million m³ [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily log report from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Products R & D department, dated August 21, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Log and Timber Prices - Log prices at various ports (e.g., radiation pine and spruce at Rizhao and Taicang ports) and timber prices (e.g., radiation pine and white pine timber) remained stable with 0.00% daily and weekly changes [3] Futures Volume and Price - Futures contracts such as LG2509, LG2511, and LG2601 showed different price, volume, and持仓量 changes. For example, LG2509's closing price was 804.5 yuan/unit, down 1.0 yuan/unit from the previous day and 5.0% from the week [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Spot Market - Log spot prices remained stable. For instance, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiation pine logs in Rizhao, Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and week [5] Supply - From August 18 - 24, 2025, 9 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 11 Chinese ports, a 13% increase from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 32.3 million cubic meters, a 29% increase [5] Demand - Stockpiling demand was released periodically. Traders and processors stocked up in advance based on the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation, but the capital availability rate of construction sites nationwide declined, leading to weak demand transmission [10] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see as the log market is generally stable and medium - to - long - term demand needs further observation [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams showing log and timber prices, import log CFR prices, New Zealand log shipments to China, port log inventory structures, and provincial port inventories and out - bound volumes [16][19][29]

Group 1: Report Summary - This is a log data daily report from the Research Institute of Guomao Futures, dated August 13, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Price Information Spot Prices - In Shandong, for radiata pine, 3.9m medium A is 750 yuan/m³, 5.9m medium A is 790 yuan/m³, 3.9m small A is 720 yuan/m³, 5.9m small A is 730 yuan/m³; in Jiangsu, 4m medium A is 770 yuan/m³, 6m medium A is 800 yuan/m³, 4m small A is 720 yuan/m³, 6m small A is 750 yuan/m³ [4] Outer - Disk Quotes - The price range of 4m medium A radiata pine in July is 113 - 117 dollars/JAS m³, up 6 dollars from June's 110 - 111 dollars/JAS m³ [4] Futures Prices - LG2511 contract is 845.5 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan from the previous period; LG2509 contract is 824.5 yuan/m³, down 8 yuan from the previous period [4] Downstream Timber Prices - In Shandong and Jiangsu, the price of 4000*50*100 wood squares is 1270 yuan and 1260 yuan respectively, unchanged from the previous period [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Information Supply - In June 2025, New Zealand's log import volume was 1710000 m³, North American timber was 101000 m³, and European timber was 131000 m³; in July, New Zealand's was 1673000 m³, North American timber was 95000 m³, and European timber was 190000 m³. The shipping volume from New Zealand to China from July 14 - 20 and July 21 - 27 was 320000 JAS m³ [4] Inventory - On August 1, the total inventory was 3170000 m³, with Shandong inventory at 1930000 m³ and Jiangsu inventory at 960000 m³ [4] Demand - On August 1, the daily average outbound volume was 64200 m³, with Shandong's at 35700 m³ and Jiangsu's at 23200 m³ [4] Group 4: Core View - The log spot market was basically stable this week, port inventory and outbound volume were stable, and spot prices rose due to the increase in the price of futures - spot merchants. The current market price of 5.9m medium A is 790 - 800 yuan/m³, and the delivery cost is about 820 - 830 yuan/m². It is expected that the log 09 contract will operate in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "oscillating", with logs expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Log futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ under the influence of rising foreign quotes and improving domestic demand. The trading strategy suggests spot registration for warehouse - receipt delivery, with attention to domestic demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 4 - 10, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 18 Chinese ports was 14, an increase of 8 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 133%. The total arrival volume was about 425,000 cubic meters, an increase of 204,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 92% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the available days of national log port inventory were 49.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20% and a month - on - month increase of 2.28% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign quotes, the profit inversion of traders intensified. As of August 8, 2025, the trader's profit was - 55 yuan/m³, with a slight week - on - week increase [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 790 - 800 yuan/m³, equivalent to a delivery cost of 820 - 830 yuan/m³ [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, log futures oscillated. The ebbing of commodity sentiment and the delivery cost calculated based on the import price formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and the decline in domestic port inventory provided some positive factors. It oscillated in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³. As of August 8, 2025, the total log futures contract positions were 31,497 lots, a 15.7% increase from last week; the positions of the main log futures contract 2509 were 20,650 lots, a 5.4% increase from last week [6][11]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 730/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 720/770/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total coniferous log imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97%. In June 2025, China's imports of coniferous logs from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year increase of 37.37%. From January to June 2025, the imports from New Zealand were about 9.2485 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.91%. In June 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 34.07%. From January to June 2025, the imports of radiata pine were about 9.0189 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.55% [21]. - **Shipping and Shipment Volume**: From August 2 - 8, 2025, a total of 10 ships with 360,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships with 290,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [24]. - **Trade Profit**: The increase in foreign quotes intensified the profit inversion of traders. As of July 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 805 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 57 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [31]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, flat week - on - week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The North American timber inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.26%. The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, flat week - on - week. In terms of provincial inventory, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.04% from last week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 960,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 5.55% from last week [34]. - **Outbound Volume**: As of August 1, 2025, the national average daily outbound volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.04%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.69% and a month - on - month increase of 7.91% [38]. - **Downstream**: As of August 8, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1260 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 24 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week [42].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Oscillating" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The log market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 840 yuan/m³ due to rising foreign quotes and improving domestic demand [4] - Last week, the log futures oscillated between 820 - 840 yuan/m³. The ebbing commodity sentiment and delivery cost based on import prices formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and declining domestic port inventories provided some positive support [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97% [4] - **Demand**: From July 21st to July 27th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,100 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,900 cubic meters, a 0.89% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 24,600 cubic meters, a 6.03% increase [4] - **Inventory**: As of July 25th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a 120,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week and a 3.65% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a 70,000 - cubic - meter decrease and a 2.65% week - on - week decrease [4] - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign quotes, the profit inversion of traders intensified. As of August 1st, 2025, the trader's profit was - 57 yuan/m³, a slight week - on - week decline [4] - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 770 - 780 yuan/m³, equivalent to 780 - 790 yuan/m³ on the futures market, with the futures price at a premium [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy is not provided. The arbitrage strategy is to register spot goods for warehouse receipt delivery. Attention should be paid to domestic demand [4] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, log futures oscillated between 820 - 840 yuan/m³. The ebbing commodity sentiment and delivery cost based on import prices formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and declining domestic port inventories provided some positive support [7] - **Futures Position**: As of August 1st, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 27,218 lots, a 13.5% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main contract 2509 was 19,584 lots, a 19.6% decrease [12] - **Spot Market**: As of August 1st, 2025, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu showed slight increases. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/740/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/770/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/770/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/780/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97%. In June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year increase of 37.37%. From January to June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 9.2485 million cubic meters, a 0.91% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, radiata pine imports were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 34.07%. From January to June 2025, radiata pine imports were about 9.0189 million cubic meters, a 0.55% year - on - year decrease [20] - **Shipping Volume**: As of July 27th, there were 40 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 35 going to the Chinese mainland and 5 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for partial unloading. Among them, 16 ships were expected to arrive in July and 24 in August, with an expected arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [23] - **Trade Profit**: As of July 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 805 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 57 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand ports was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [30] - **Inventory**: As of July 25th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a 3.65% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a 2.65% week - on - week decrease. The North American log inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a 17.39% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week. In terms of provincial inventories, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.93 million cubic meters, a 0.10% week - on - week decrease, and in Jiangsu ports was 1.0164 million cubic meters, an 8.23% week - on - week decrease [32] - **Outbound Volume**: From July 21st to July 27th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,100 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,900 cubic meters, a 0.89% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 24,600 cubic meters, a 6.03% increase [36] - **Downstream Market**: As of August 1st, 2025, the wood square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat week - on - week, at 1270 yuan/m³ and 1260 yuan/m³ respectively. The processing profit in Shandong was 31 yuan/m³, and in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, both remaining flat week - on - week [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to wait and see, as the log market is expected to fluctuate significantly this week, influenced by the commodity futures market [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures market has seen significant price increases due to strong commodity sentiment, decreased shipping volume, rising foreign market quotes, and expectations of a peak season in September. However, the current fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to register warehouse receipts for delivery to profit. Considering various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation, the overall market situation is complex, and waiting and seeing is the recommended strategy [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In June 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs were approximately 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97% [3]. - **Demand**: From July 14th to July 20th, the average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 62,400 cubic meters, a 6.1% increase from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports was 33,600 cubic meters, a 4.8% decrease from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 23,200 cubic meters, a 25.4% increase from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory at Shandong ports was 1.932 million cubic meters, a 2% increase from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 1.1 million cubic meters, basically unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign market quotes, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of July 25, 2025, the trader's profit was - 54 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine is 760 yuan/m³, equivalent to 790 yuan/m³ on the futures market, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, no specific strategy is provided. For arbitrage, register warehouse receipts for delivery. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures**: Log futures have risen significantly due to strong commodity sentiment, decreased shipping volume, rising foreign market quotes, and expectations of a peak season in September. However, the fundamentals are currently weak, and it is recommended to register warehouse receipts for delivery to profit [7]. - **Spot**: As of July 25, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 720/740/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/770/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 710/760/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/770/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs were about 2.1768 million cubic meters. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters. In June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, and from January to June 2025, about 9.2485 million cubic meters. In June 2025, imports of radiata pine were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, and from January to June 2025, about 9.0189 million cubic meters [21]. - **Shipping Volume**: As of July 20th, there were 29 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 26 going to the Chinese mainland. It is expected that 16 ships will arrive in July and 13 in August, with an expected arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [24]. - **Trade Profit**: With the increase in foreign market quotes, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of July 2025, the import profit of radiata pine was about - 53 yuan/m³ [31]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory was 2.64 million cubic meters, North American timber inventory was 230,000 cubic meters, and spruce and fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters. In Shandong ports, the inventory was 1.932 million cubic meters, and in Jiangsu ports, 1.1 million cubic meters [34]. - **Outbound Volume**: From July 14th to July 20th, the average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 62,400 cubic meters. The average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports was 33,600 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 23,200 cubic meters [37]. - **Downstream**: As of July 25, 2025, the wood square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were 1270 yuan/m³ and 1260 yuan/m³ respectively, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 31 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ from the previous week [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the arrival of logs at ports will remain at a low level, and the supply side has certain support. The demand is in the off - season, and the port outbound is still weak. The subsequent demand will continue to be weak due to weather reasons. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the short - term demand decline space is limited. The short - term reduction in arrivals may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but the overall inventory reduction amplitude may be limited due to weak downstream demand. The prices of logs and wood squares are relatively stable, but the profit of logs and wood squares is expected to show a weak trend [7][9][11][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Log Overview Supply End - In the week of July 18, 2025, the number of arriving ships was 5, a decrease of 5 compared with the previous week; the arrival volume was 17.7 million cubic meters, a decrease of 16.65 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was 217.68, a decrease of 1.39 compared with the previous month, and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume of radiata pine was 160.68, a decrease of 8.32 compared with the previous month, and a year - on - year decrease of 6%. From the seasonal perspective of New Zealand's shipments, June and July are the off - seasons of the year, and the increase in foreign quotes restrains the import willingness of domestic traders to a certain extent, and the arrivals are expected to decrease gradually [7]. Demand and Inventory End - The weekly national shipment volume was 43.68, a month - on - month increase of 2.5. The apparent demand was 8.95, a month - on - month decrease of 26.7. The total inventory was 385, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The off - season continues, the port outbound is still weak, and the subsequent demand will continue to be weak due to weather reasons. The short - term reduction in arrivals may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but the overall inventory reduction amplitude may be limited due to weak downstream demand [9]. Price and Spread - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce remained unchanged. The spot prices of radiata pine and spruce were stable, and the wood square prices were also stable. The apparent data shows that the demand is okay, the spot valuation is low, and the expectation of the peak season in September drives the increase of the futures price. After the increase, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, providing a certain hedging space [11][13]. Cost and Profit - The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased slightly, and the import profit decreased. The profit of radiata pine and spruce wood squares was stable but at a loss. Affected by the weak demand of downstream and terminals, the profit of logs and wood squares is expected to show a weak trend [16]. Strategy Recommendation - For the industrial chain, the spot is stable, the finished products are adjusted downwards, the macro - economic meeting is held, and the commodity sentiment has improved. But the fundamental feeling is still weak, and there is a long - short game in the futures market. For the futures market, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to the change of basis. Enterprises with spot goods that meet the delivery standards can consider selling hedging when the spot trading is weak, or choose delivery after cost accounting. For option strategies, selling out - of - the - money call options or buying out - of - the - money put options can be considered for risk hedging or return enhancement, and strict risk management is required [18]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet - The log balance sheet shows the changes in supply, demand, and inventory from January 3, 2025, to July 18, 2025. The supply includes the number and weight of arriving logs, and the demand includes the average daily shipment volume and apparent demand. The inventory is divided by region and tree species, and the supply - demand difference is also calculated [20]. Part 3: Log Supply and Demand Analysis Supply End - It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by tree species, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [26][28][31]. Demand End - It includes the average daily shipment volume of logs and the real - estate situation, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [35][38]. Downstream Analysis - It includes the price and profit analysis of wood squares and the analysis of downstream substitutes (aluminum alloy), but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [43][49][55]. Inventory End - It includes the summary of inventory, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [59][61][67]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - It focuses on the import cost and profit of logs, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [73]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis Log Foreign Quotes - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce are involved, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [79]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices - The price seasonality graphs of radiata pine and spruce are provided, showing the price changes in 2024 and 2025 [82]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads - The spread seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is involved, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [85]. Basis between Radiata Pine and LG - The basis between radiata pine and LG is analyzed, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [91]. Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts - The seasonal chart of LG main contracts shows the price changes in 2024 and 2025, and the inter - month spread is also involved, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [97][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term arrival of logs at ports remains low, providing some support to the supply side. The off - season of shipments from New Zealand and rising overseas quotes are expected to lead to a gradual decrease in arrivals. - Log demand is in the off - season, with weak port out - bound shipments. Affected by weather and low real - estate start - up rates, demand is expected to remain weak, but the decline space is limited. - Short - term arrival reduction may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but the overall inventory reduction amplitude may be limited due to weak downstream demand. - Spot prices are relatively stable, with a slight decline in the off - season. Future arrival reduction may provide some support. The 09 contract is expected to remain volatile. [7][9][11][17] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Log Overview Supply Side - Overseas: In the week of 2025/7/11, the number of arriving ships was 10, a decrease of 3 compared to the previous week; the arrival volume was 34.35 million cubic meters, a decrease of 9.95 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was 219.07 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 0.61 million cubic meters. The import volume of radiata pine was 169.00 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.55 million cubic meters. The import volume of spruce - fir was 12.00 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.31 million cubic meters, and the import volume of other coniferous logs was 38.07 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.63 million cubic meters. - From the perspective of New Zealand's shipping seasonality, June and July are the off - seasons. Rising overseas quotes have curbed the import willingness of domestic traders, and arrivals are expected to decrease gradually. [7] Demand and Inventory Side - Demand: The weekly national shipment volume was 41.16 million cubic meters, a decrease of 5.7 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The demand in various regions showed a downward trend. The apparent demand was 35.60 million cubic meters, a decrease of 22.5 million cubic meters. - Inventory: The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu showed different trends. The total inventory was 376.25 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1.3 million cubic meters. Short - term arrival reduction may lead to inventory reduction, but the amplitude may be limited due to weak demand. [9] Price and Spread - Price: The overseas quote of radiata pine increased slightly, while the spot price decreased slightly but remained relatively stable. The price of wood squares was stable, and the futures price showed a downward trend. - Spread: The spot spread was relatively stable, and the futures spread and basis also showed a stable trend. The basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine, with a reference size difference of 8%, equivalent to about 780 - 790 yuan per cubic meter on the futures market. [11][13] Strategy Recommendation - The spot market is stable, arrivals are decreasing, and inventory is fluctuating. The futures market is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to downstream start - up and port inventory. [17] Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report provides a weekly log balance sheet from 2025 - 01 - 03 to 2025 - 07 - 11, including arrival numbers, arrival weights, daily average shipment volumes, apparent demand, and inventory data by region and tree species, and calculates the supply - demand difference [19]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis Supply Side - New Zealand Log Shipment Volume: The report shows the expected departure volume of ships and the expected port shipment volume of New Zealand logs from 2023 to 2025 [26]. - Log Import: The import volume of coniferous logs from 2022 to 2025 is presented, and the import volume by tree species is also analyzed [29]. Demand Side - Log Daily Average Shipment Volume: The daily average out - bound volume of ports in China, Jiangsu, and Shandong from 2022 to 2025 is shown [36][37]. - Real Estate: The cumulative year - on - year data of real estate development investment completion and new construction area, as well as the monthly data of real estate development investment completion, housing construction area, and new construction area from 2021 to 2025 are presented [40][41][42]. Downstream Analysis - Wood Square Analysis - Price: The price trends of radiata pine and spruce wood squares of different specifications in Shandong from 2022 to 2025 are shown [46][47][48][49]. - Wood Square Analysis - Profit: The profit trends of radiata pine and spruce wood squares of different specifications in Shandong from 2024 to 2025 are shown [52][53][54][55]. - Downstream Substitute - Aluminum Alloy Analysis: The development indicators of the aluminum alloy formwork industry from 2020 to 2025 are presented [57]. Inventory Side The report analyzes the inventory by tree species and region, but specific data analysis is not detailed in the summary part [62][68]. Part 4: Cost and Profit The report shows the import cost and profit trends of radiata pine and spruce from 2022 to 2025. The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased, and the import profit decreased [75][76][77][78]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis Log Overseas Quote The overseas quote trends of radiata pine and spruce from 2022 to 2025 are presented [82][83]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices The price trends of radiata pine and spruce of different specifications from 2024 to 2025 are shown [85]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads The spread trends of radiata pine of different specifications from 2024 to 2025 are presented [88][89][90][91]. Radiata Pine and LG Basis The basis trends of radiata pine of different specifications and LG futures contracts from 2024 to 2025 are shown [94][95][96][97]. LG Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread The price trends of the main continuous contract and LG09 contract from 2024 to 2025 are presented [100][101].