1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and spread of logs. It indicates that the supply - side pressure is decreasing, the demand remains weak with the approaching off - season and wood blue - stain period. The price is under pressure, and the market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance in the future [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply - side**: In September 2025, the number of arriving ships was 16, and the arrival volume was 53.1 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was about 200.13 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the subsequent arrival will remain stable, and the supply - side pressure will decrease [7]. - **Demand and Inventory - side**: The weekly shipment volume and apparent demand show no significant improvement. The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the weak demand despite the decrease in arrivals this week [9]. - **Price and Spread**: The outer - market quotation has a slight adjustment, the spot price is under pressure, and the wood - block price is stable. The spread is relatively stable, and the basis has certain support [11][13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of logs is expected to decline, and the import profit is decreasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot market price is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of the futures market are weakly oscillating, and it is expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. 3.2 Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report presents the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to November 7, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, and the supply - demand difference [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by species [25][27][30]. - **Demand - side**: It involves the daily shipment volume of logs, the real - estate market, and downstream analysis such as wood - block price, profit, and downstream substitutes [34][36][41]. - **Inventory - side**: It includes inventory summaries, inventory by species, and inventory by region [58][60][66]. 3.4 Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log Import Cost and Profit**: Analyzes the import cost and profit of logs [72]. - **Log Delivery Profit**: Analyzes the delivery profit of logs [77]. 3.5 Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotation of logs [82]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Prices**: Presents the seasonal price trends of radiation pine and spruce [85]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Spreads**: Analyzes the seasonal spread trends of radiation pine and spruce [98]. - **Basis between Radiation Pine and LG**: Analyzes the basis between radiation pine and LG [104]. - **Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts**: Presents the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of LG main contracts [106].

投资咨询号: Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 2025/10/28 | | 地区 | 树种 | 规格 | 现货尺价格 | 期货尺价格 | 期货尺±升贴水 | 基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 山东 | 辐射松 | 3.9米中A | 760 | 820 | 820 | 57.0 | | | | | 5.9米中A | 800 | 860 | 810 | 47.0 | | | | | 3.9米小A | 720 | 790 | 840 | 77.0 | | 现货价 | | | 5.9米小A | 760 | 830 | 830 | 67.0 | | | 江苏 | 辐射松 | 4米中A | 770 | 830 | 830 | 67.0 47.0 | | | | | 6米中A | 800 | 860 | 810 | | | | | | 4米小A | 720 | 790 | 840 | 77.0 | | | | | 6米小A | 750 | 810 | 810 | 47.0 | | | 单位 | 树种 | 规格 | 10月价格 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is that it is expected to run strongly [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly due to low valuation, with the lowest delivery cost of log futures being 810 - 820 yuan/m³, while the supply shows a slight increase and the demand is neutral, and the inventory situation is also neutral [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%; the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%, which has a bearish impact on the market [3][27] - **Demand**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. Due to the Sino - US trade war, there is an expected increase in the external market quotation of logs, and the demand is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%, and the inventory situation is neutral [3][36] - **Valuation**: The current lowest delivery cost of log futures is 810 - 820 yuan/m³, with a low valuation, which is bullish for the market [3] - **Investment View**: The fundamentals remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For arbitrage, a 11 - 1 positive spread is recommended, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Log futures fluctuated significantly. After a sharp decline, the futures price was lower than the lowest delivery cost, and the spot price was firm with the inventory not reaching the inflection point, so it is expected to run strongly. The log futures contract's total open interest was 21,452 lots as of October 17th, a 9.2% increase from the previous week, and the open interest of the main contract 2601 was 14,247 lots, an 89.5% increase from the previous week [6][12] - **Spot Market**: As of October 17th, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu increased to varying degrees. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. Imports from New Zealand were 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. Radiata pine imports were 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [23] - **New Zealand's Log Shipment and Delivery**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%, and the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% [3][27] - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.46 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.68%; North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week; spruce/fir inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1,892,000 cubic meters, a 6.65% increase from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 880,900 cubic meters, a 3.89% increase from the previous week [36] - **Domestic Log Outbound Volume**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,400 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 17,900 cubic meters, a 31.94% decrease from the previous week [38] - **Wooden Square Data**: As of October 17th, the wooden square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were both 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and that in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, also unchanged from the previous week [41]

国贸期货研究院 杨路林 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 原木数据日报 投资咨询号: Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 2025/10/17 | | 地区 | 树种 | 规格 | 现货尺价格 | 期货尺价格 | 期货尺±升贴水 | 基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 3.9米中A | 760 | 820 | 820 | 23.0 | | | 山东 | 辐射松 | 5.9米中A | 800 | 860 | 810 | 13.0 | | | | | 3.9米小A | 720 | 790 | 840 | 43.0 | | | | | 5.9米小A | 760 | 830 | 830 | 33.0 | | 现货价 | | | 4米中A | 770 | 830 | 830 | 33.0 | | | 江苏 | 辐射松 | 6米中A | 800 | 860 | 810 | 13.0 | | | | | 4米小A | 720 | 790 | 840 | 43. 0 | | | | | 6米小A | 750 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Log Data Daily Report [3] - Research Institute: ITC Futures Research Institute [4] - Author: Yang Lulin [4] - Date: October 15, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price Information Spot Prices - In Shandong, for Radiata Pine, 3.9m Medium A is priced at 760 yuan, 5.9m Medium A at 800 yuan, 3.9m Small A at 720 yuan, and 5.9m Small A at 760 yuan [5] - In Jiangsu, for Radiata Pine, 4m Medium A is priced at 770 yuan, 6m Medium A at 800 yuan, 4m Small A at 720 yuan, and 6m Small A at 750 yuan [5] Outer - market Quotes - The outer - market quote for 4m Medium A Radiata Pine is in the range of 115 - 117 dollars per JAS cubic meter, with a 2 - dollar increase from September's 113 - 115 dollars [5] Futures Prices - LG2511 contract price is 787.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 15.5 yuan from the previous period; LG2601 contract price is 820 yuan per cubic meter, down 3 yuan from the previous period [5] Downstream Wood Product Prices - The price of 4000*50*100 wood squares in both Shandong and Jiangsu is 1270 yuan, with no change from the previous period [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Information Import Volume - In August 2025, New Zealand's log import volume was 130.6 million cubic meters, North American timber was 10.1 million cubic meters, and European timber was 14.8 million cubic meters; in July 2025, the corresponding figures were 145.8 million, 10.6 million, and 16.6 million cubic meters respectively [5] Shipment Volume - From September 22 - 28 to October 6 - 12, the shipment volume from New Zealand to China decreased from 35 million JAS cubic meters to 34 million JAS cubic meters [5] Inventory - On October 10, the total inventory was 299 million cubic meters; Shandong's inventory was 189 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 88 million cubic meters [5] Demand - On October 10, the daily average outbound volume was 5.73 million cubic meters; Shandong's outbound volume was 3.44 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 1.79 million cubic meters [5] Group 4: Core View - After the holiday, the log fundamentals weakened slightly, with a slight increase in port inventory and a decrease in outbound volume, but the sustainability of this phenomenon needs further observation [5] - Log spot prices increased steadily, mainly driven by knot - free timber and laminated timber [5] - After a sharp decline, the log futures price is below the delivery cost line, and further short - selling is not recommended [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the log futures will run strongly [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and the log futures are expected to run strongly. The supply situation has a slightly negative impact, while demand and inventory factors have a positive impact. The valuation is considered neutral [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% (100,000 cubic meters). The number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% (2 ships), showing a slightly negative impact [4] - **Demand**: As of September 26, the average daily log outbound volume of 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 9.70% (5,800 cubic meters), indicating a positive impact [4] - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.86 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% (60,000 cubic meters). The radiata pine inventory was 2.35 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67% (40,000 cubic meters), having a positive impact [4] - **Valuation**: The current log futures delivery cost is between 830 - 840 yuan/m³, with a neutral valuation [4] - **Investment View**: The fundamentals are stable, and the log futures are expected to run strongly [4] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, the log futures ran strongly. Due to the increase in spot prices and strong fundamentals, there was a slight increase. Currently, the delivery logic is not being traded, and with firm spot prices and inventory not reaching the inflection point, it is expected to continue running strongly. As of October 10, 2025, the total log futures contract open interest was 19,649 lots, a 1.8% decrease from last week. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 9,354 lots, a 24% decrease from last week [7][12] - **Spot Market**: As of October 10, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/790/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [17] 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. The import volume from New Zealand was 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. The radiata pine import volume was 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [22] - **Expected Shipment from New Zealand**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% (100,000 cubic meters). The number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% (2 ships) [25] - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.86 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% (60,000 cubic meters). The radiata pine inventory was 2.35 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67% (40,000 cubic meters). The North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10.00% (10,000 cubic meters). The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76% (10,000 cubic meters). As of September 26, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.774 million cubic meters, an increase of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 847,893 cubic meters, an increase of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period [32] - **Outbound Volume**: As of September 26, the average daily log outbound volume of 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 9.70% (5,800 cubic meters). Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 34,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 12.42% (3,800 cubic meters). The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 26,300 cubic meters, an increase of 3,300 cubic meters from the previous period [35] - **Wooden Square**: As of October 10, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was also 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the log market is "oscillation". The 11 - contract of log futures is expected to oscillate in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the log market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation. It concludes that all these factors are currently neutral, and the log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range. The key influencing factor to watch is the domestic demand situation [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55% [3]. - **Demand**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in the overseas market quotation, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of August 29, 2025, the trader's profit was - 69 yuan/m³ [3]. - **Valuation**: The delivery cost range of the 11 - contract is between 820 - 840 yuan/m³, and the overall valuation level is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: The log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: /; Arbitrage: /; Risk to watch: Domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The 09 - contract showed weak performance, and the 11 - contract oscillated. Last week, the log futures contract converged towards the receiving price, and the overall price showed weak performance. The delivery volume of the 09 - contract was low, and the fluctuation during the delivery month is expected to be limited. For the 11 - contract, there are currently no major contradictions, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has not arrived. It is currently expected to be in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [6]. - **Futures Position**: As of August 29, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 18,930 lots, a 33.5% decrease from last week. The position of the main 2509 contract was 13,583 lots, a 13.5% increase from last week [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of August 29, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 730/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Log Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.90%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.57%. In July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4581 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.35%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 10.7066 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. In July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 1.3972 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 13.04% and a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. From January to July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 10.4161 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.25% [22]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment and Delivery Volume**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55%. In terms of ports, 6 ships are expected to arrive at Shandong ports, with an arrival volume of about 212,000 cubic meters, accounting for 48%, and the arrival volume increased by 14% week - on - week. 5 ships are expected to arrive at Jiangsu ports, with an arrival volume of about 148,000 cubic meters, accounting for 34%, and the arrival volume increased by 131% week - on - week [25]. - **Trade Profit**: As of August 2025, the CFR quotation of radiata pine was 116 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 815 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 69 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week. The spruce/fir inventory was 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.86 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.32% from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 994,995 cubic meters, an increase of 1.22% from last week [33]. - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [35]. - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of August 22, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was 1280 yuan/m³, an increase of 20 yuan/m³ week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was - 20 yuan/m³, an increase of 4 yuan/m³ week - on - week [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the log spot market was basically stable, port inventories decreased, and the outbound volume was stable. Spot prices rose due to increased inquiries from spot - futures traders. The 5.9 - meter medium A log market price is 790 - 800 yuan/m³, and the 5.9 - meter small A log market price is 730 - 740 yuan/m³. The futures delivery cost is about 820 - 830 yuan/m³. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, the log warehouse receipt volume has increased significantly, and the futures price is under pressure and is expected to run weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9 - meter medium A has a spot price of 750 yuan/m³, 5.9 - meter medium A is 790 yuan/m³, 3.9 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A is 730 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, 4 - meter medium A is 770 yuan/m³, 6 - meter medium A is 800 yuan/m³, 4 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, and 6 - meter small A is 750 yuan/m³ [4]. Outer - disk Quotation - The outer - disk quotation for 4 - meter medium A radiation pine is 113 - 117 dollars/JAS cubic meter, with a 6 - dollar increase compared to the 110 - 111 dollars/JAS cubic meter in June [4]. Futures Price - The LG2511 contract has a current price of 815 yuan/m³, a decrease of 8.5 yuan compared to the previous price. The LG2509 contract has a current price of 801 yuan/m³, a decrease of 3.5 yuan compared to the previous price [4]. Downstream Wood Square Price - In Shandong, the price of 4000*50*100 wood squares remains at 1270 yuan. In Jiangsu, it has increased from 1260 yuan to 1280 yuan [4]. Supply (Import Volume) - In June 2025, the import volume of New Zealand logs was 167.3 (in ten thousand m³), North American logs was 9.5 (in ten thousand m³), and European logs was 19 (in ten thousand m³). The shipping volume from New Zealand to China from August 4th - 10th was 26 (in ten thousand JASm³) [4]. Inventory - On August 15th, the total inventory was 306 (in ten thousand m³), with Shandong inventory at 185 (in ten thousand m³) and Jiangsu inventory at 8 (in ten thousand m³). The inventory has been decreasing compared to previous periods [4]. Demand (Daily Outbound Volume) - On August 15th, the daily outbound volume was 6.33 (in ten thousand m³), with Shandong's outbound volume at 3.59 (in ten thousand m³) and Jiangsu's at 2.32 (in ten thousand m³). The outbound volume has been relatively stable [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint - The log spot market was basically stable this week, with port inventories decreasing, outbound volume remaining stable, and spot prices rising due to increased inquiries from futures - spot traders. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, with a significant increase in log warehouse receipts, and the futures price is under pressure and expected to operate weakly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9 - meter medium A is 750 yuan/m³, 5.9 - meter medium A is 790 yuan/m³, 3.9 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, 5.9 - meter small A is 730 yuan/m³; in Jiangsu, 4 - meter medium A is 770 yuan/m³, 6 - meter medium A is 800 yuan/m³, 4 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, 6 - meter small A is 750 yuan/m³ [4] Outer - disk Quotation - The price range of 4 - meter medium A radiation pine in July is 113 - 117 dollars/JAS m³, up 6 dollars from June's 110 - 111 dollars/JAS m³ [4] Futures Price - LG2511 contract is 823.5 yuan/m³, up 2 yuan from the previous period; LG2509 contract is 804.5 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan from the previous period [4] Downstream Wood Square Price - In Shandong, the price of 4000*50*100 wood square is 1270 yuan, unchanged from the previous period; in Jiangsu, it is 1280 yuan, up 20 yuan from the previous period [4] Supply (Import Volume) - In June 2025, New Zealand's import volume was 167.3 million m³, North American timber was 9.5 million m³, and European timber was 19 million m³. New Zealand's shipment volume to China from August 4 - 10 was 26 million JAS m³, down from 27 million JAS m³ from July 28 - August 3 [4] Inventory - On August 15, the total inventory was 306 million m³, with Shandong's inventory at 185 million m³ and Jiangsu's at 98 million m³ [4] Demand (Daily Outbound Volume) - On August 15, the daily outbound volume was 6.33 million m³, with Shandong's at 3.59 million m³ and Jiangsu's at 2.32 million m³ [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily log report from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Products R & D department, dated August 21, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Log and Timber Prices - Log prices at various ports (e.g., radiation pine and spruce at Rizhao and Taicang ports) and timber prices (e.g., radiation pine and white pine timber) remained stable with 0.00% daily and weekly changes [3] Futures Volume and Price - Futures contracts such as LG2509, LG2511, and LG2601 showed different price, volume, and持仓量 changes. For example, LG2509's closing price was 804.5 yuan/unit, down 1.0 yuan/unit from the previous day and 5.0% from the week [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Spot Market - Log spot prices remained stable. For instance, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiation pine logs in Rizhao, Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and week [5] Supply - From August 18 - 24, 2025, 9 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 11 Chinese ports, a 13% increase from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 32.3 million cubic meters, a 29% increase [5] Demand - Stockpiling demand was released periodically. Traders and processors stocked up in advance based on the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation, but the capital availability rate of construction sites nationwide declined, leading to weak demand transmission [10] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see as the log market is generally stable and medium - to - long - term demand needs further observation [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams showing log and timber prices, import log CFR prices, New Zealand log shipments to China, port log inventory structures, and provincial port inventories and out - bound volumes [16][19][29]