1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "oscillating", with logs expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Log futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ under the influence of rising foreign quotes and improving domestic demand. The trading strategy suggests spot registration for warehouse - receipt delivery, with attention to domestic demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 4 - 10, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 18 Chinese ports was 14, an increase of 8 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 133%. The total arrival volume was about 425,000 cubic meters, an increase of 204,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 92% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the available days of national log port inventory were 49.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20% and a month - on - month increase of 2.28% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign quotes, the profit inversion of traders intensified. As of August 8, 2025, the trader's profit was - 55 yuan/m³, with a slight week - on - week increase [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 790 - 800 yuan/m³, equivalent to a delivery cost of 820 - 830 yuan/m³ [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, log futures oscillated. The ebbing of commodity sentiment and the delivery cost calculated based on the import price formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and the decline in domestic port inventory provided some positive factors. It oscillated in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³. As of August 8, 2025, the total log futures contract positions were 31,497 lots, a 15.7% increase from last week; the positions of the main log futures contract 2509 were 20,650 lots, a 5.4% increase from last week [6][11]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 730/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 720/770/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total coniferous log imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97%. In June 2025, China's imports of coniferous logs from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year increase of 37.37%. From January to June 2025, the imports from New Zealand were about 9.2485 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.91%. In June 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 34.07%. From January to June 2025, the imports of radiata pine were about 9.0189 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.55% [21]. - **Shipping and Shipment Volume**: From August 2 - 8, 2025, a total of 10 ships with 360,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships with 290,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [24]. - **Trade Profit**: The increase in foreign quotes intensified the profit inversion of traders. As of July 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 805 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 57 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [31]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, flat week - on - week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The North American timber inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.26%. The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, flat week - on - week. In terms of provincial inventory, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.04% from last week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 960,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 5.55% from last week [34]. - **Outbound Volume**: As of August 1, 2025, the national average daily outbound volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.04%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.69% and a month - on - month increase of 7.91% [38]. - **Downstream**: As of August 8, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1260 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 24 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week [42].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Oscillating" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The log market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 840 yuan/m³ due to rising foreign quotes and improving domestic demand [4] - Last week, the log futures oscillated between 820 - 840 yuan/m³. The ebbing commodity sentiment and delivery cost based on import prices formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and declining domestic port inventories provided some positive support [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97% [4] - **Demand**: From July 21st to July 27th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,100 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,900 cubic meters, a 0.89% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 24,600 cubic meters, a 6.03% increase [4] - **Inventory**: As of July 25th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a 120,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week and a 3.65% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a 70,000 - cubic - meter decrease and a 2.65% week - on - week decrease [4] - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign quotes, the profit inversion of traders intensified. As of August 1st, 2025, the trader's profit was - 57 yuan/m³, a slight week - on - week decline [4] - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 770 - 780 yuan/m³, equivalent to 780 - 790 yuan/m³ on the futures market, with the futures price at a premium [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy is not provided. The arbitrage strategy is to register spot goods for warehouse receipt delivery. Attention should be paid to domestic demand [4] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, log futures oscillated between 820 - 840 yuan/m³. The ebbing commodity sentiment and delivery cost based on import prices formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and declining domestic port inventories provided some positive support [7] - **Futures Position**: As of August 1st, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 27,218 lots, a 13.5% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main contract 2509 was 19,584 lots, a 19.6% decrease [12] - **Spot Market**: As of August 1st, 2025, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu showed slight increases. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/740/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/770/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/770/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/780/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97%. In June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year increase of 37.37%. From January to June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 9.2485 million cubic meters, a 0.91% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, radiata pine imports were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 34.07%. From January to June 2025, radiata pine imports were about 9.0189 million cubic meters, a 0.55% year - on - year decrease [20] - **Shipping Volume**: As of July 27th, there were 40 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 35 going to the Chinese mainland and 5 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for partial unloading. Among them, 16 ships were expected to arrive in July and 24 in August, with an expected arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [23] - **Trade Profit**: As of July 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 805 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 57 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand ports was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [30] - **Inventory**: As of July 25th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a 3.65% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a 2.65% week - on - week decrease. The North American log inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a 17.39% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week. In terms of provincial inventories, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.93 million cubic meters, a 0.10% week - on - week decrease, and in Jiangsu ports was 1.0164 million cubic meters, an 8.23% week - on - week decrease [32] - **Outbound Volume**: From July 21st to July 27th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,100 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,900 cubic meters, a 0.89% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 24,600 cubic meters, a 6.03% increase [36] - **Downstream Market**: As of August 1st, 2025, the wood square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat week - on - week, at 1270 yuan/m³ and 1260 yuan/m³ respectively. The processing profit in Shandong was 31 yuan/m³, and in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, both remaining flat week - on - week [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to wait and see, as the log market is expected to fluctuate significantly this week, influenced by the commodity futures market [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures market has seen significant price increases due to strong commodity sentiment, decreased shipping volume, rising foreign market quotes, and expectations of a peak season in September. However, the current fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to register warehouse receipts for delivery to profit. Considering various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation, the overall market situation is complex, and waiting and seeing is the recommended strategy [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In June 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs were approximately 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97% [3]. - **Demand**: From July 14th to July 20th, the average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 62,400 cubic meters, a 6.1% increase from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports was 33,600 cubic meters, a 4.8% decrease from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 23,200 cubic meters, a 25.4% increase from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory at Shandong ports was 1.932 million cubic meters, a 2% increase from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 1.1 million cubic meters, basically unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign market quotes, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of July 25, 2025, the trader's profit was - 54 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine is 760 yuan/m³, equivalent to 790 yuan/m³ on the futures market, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, no specific strategy is provided. For arbitrage, register warehouse receipts for delivery. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures**: Log futures have risen significantly due to strong commodity sentiment, decreased shipping volume, rising foreign market quotes, and expectations of a peak season in September. However, the fundamentals are currently weak, and it is recommended to register warehouse receipts for delivery to profit [7]. - **Spot**: As of July 25, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 720/740/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/770/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 710/760/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/770/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs were about 2.1768 million cubic meters. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters. In June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, and from January to June 2025, about 9.2485 million cubic meters. In June 2025, imports of radiata pine were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, and from January to June 2025, about 9.0189 million cubic meters [21]. - **Shipping Volume**: As of July 20th, there were 29 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 26 going to the Chinese mainland. It is expected that 16 ships will arrive in July and 13 in August, with an expected arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [24]. - **Trade Profit**: With the increase in foreign market quotes, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of July 2025, the import profit of radiata pine was about - 53 yuan/m³ [31]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory was 2.64 million cubic meters, North American timber inventory was 230,000 cubic meters, and spruce and fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters. In Shandong ports, the inventory was 1.932 million cubic meters, and in Jiangsu ports, 1.1 million cubic meters [34]. - **Outbound Volume**: From July 14th to July 20th, the average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 62,400 cubic meters. The average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports was 33,600 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 23,200 cubic meters [37]. - **Downstream**: As of July 25, 2025, the wood square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were 1270 yuan/m³ and 1260 yuan/m³ respectively, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 31 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ from the previous week [41].