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【原木周报(LG)】原木期现价格偏弱运行-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 09:09
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木基本面趋弱,考虑反弹后做空 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 据木联调研,2025年10月,新西兰原木离港船只约54条月环比增加8条,总发货量约201.3万方,较9月176.6万方增加14%。 | 供给 | 偏空 | 其中,41条船发往中国,发货量约150.2万方,占比75%,较9月147.2万方增加2%。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 据木联数据统计,11月10日-11月16日,中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.56万方,较上周减少1.06%;。 | | | 库存 | 偏空 | 据据木联数据统计,截至11月14日,国内针叶原木总库存为295万方,较上周增加2万方,周环比增加0.68%; | | | 估值 | 中性 | 当前原木低于交割成本,估值偏低。 | | | 投资观点 | / | 原木基本面趋弱已经被盘面计价,当前估值偏低,考虑反弹后做空。 ...
原木现货价格下跌,考虑逢高做空
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:19
【原木周报(LG)】 原木现货价格下跌,考虑逢高做空 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-10 杨璐琳 从业资格证号:F3042528 投资咨询证号:Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号:F03134647 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木远月合约偏弱运行 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 据木联调研,2025年10月,新西兰原木离港船只约54条月环比增加8条,总发货量约201.3万方,较9月176.6万方增加14%。 其中,41条船发往中国,发货量约150.2万方,占比75%,较9月147.2万方增加2%。 | | | 需求 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计,10月27日-11月2日,中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.28万方,较上周减少2.48%。 | | | 库存 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计,截至10月31日,国内针叶原木总库存为288万方,较 ...
南华原木产业周报:关注海运制裁影响下的远月边际利多-20251019
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 13:19
南华原木产业周报 ——关注海运制裁影响下的远月边际利多 2025年10月19日 宋霁鹏(投资咨询证号:Z0016598 ) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 原木数据纵览 类别 指标 更新日期 数值 环差 同比 频率 单位 供应 辐射松进口量 2025-08-31 130 -10 -3.7% 月 万m³ 库存 港口库存(中国) 2025-10-10 299 13 17.3% 周 万m³ 港口库存(山东) 2025-10-10 1892000 118000 71.4% 周 m³ 港口库存(江苏) 2025-10-10 880900 33007 -11.2% 周 m³ 需求 原木港口日均出库量 2025-10-10 5.73 -0.83 -7.9% 周 万m³ 日均出库量(山东) 2025-10-10 3.44 0 5.2% 周 万m³ 日均出库量(江苏) 2025-10-10 1.79 -0.84 -19.0% 周 万m³ 利润 辐射松进口利润 2025-10-17 -64 1 - 周 元/m³ 云杉进口利润 2025-10-17 -118 2 - 周 元/m³ 主要现货 3.9中(3.8A)日 ...
现货价格上涨,盘面价格走强
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 11:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the log futures will run strongly [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and the log futures are expected to run strongly. The supply situation has a slightly negative impact, while demand and inventory factors have a positive impact. The valuation is considered neutral [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% (100,000 cubic meters). The number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% (2 ships), showing a slightly negative impact [4] - **Demand**: As of September 26, the average daily log outbound volume of 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 9.70% (5,800 cubic meters), indicating a positive impact [4] - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.86 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% (60,000 cubic meters). The radiata pine inventory was 2.35 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67% (40,000 cubic meters), having a positive impact [4] - **Valuation**: The current log futures delivery cost is between 830 - 840 yuan/m³, with a neutral valuation [4] - **Investment View**: The fundamentals are stable, and the log futures are expected to run strongly [4] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, the log futures ran strongly. Due to the increase in spot prices and strong fundamentals, there was a slight increase. Currently, the delivery logic is not being traded, and with firm spot prices and inventory not reaching the inflection point, it is expected to continue running strongly. As of October 10, 2025, the total log futures contract open interest was 19,649 lots, a 1.8% decrease from last week. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 9,354 lots, a 24% decrease from last week [7][12] - **Spot Market**: As of October 10, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/790/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [17] 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. The import volume from New Zealand was 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. The radiata pine import volume was 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [22] - **Expected Shipment from New Zealand**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% (100,000 cubic meters). The number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% (2 ships) [25] - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.86 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% (60,000 cubic meters). The radiata pine inventory was 2.35 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67% (40,000 cubic meters). The North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10.00% (10,000 cubic meters). The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76% (10,000 cubic meters). As of September 26, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.774 million cubic meters, an increase of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 847,893 cubic meters, an increase of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period [32] - **Outbound Volume**: As of September 26, the average daily log outbound volume of 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 9.70% (5,800 cubic meters). Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 34,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 12.42% (3,800 cubic meters). The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 26,300 cubic meters, an increase of 3,300 cubic meters from the previous period [35] - **Wooden Square**: As of October 10, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was also 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [38]
原木周报(LG):原木期货11合约震荡运行-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 09:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "oscillating" [3] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and log futures are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply, demand, inventory, and valuation factors are all rated as neutral [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand with logs, a monthly decrease of 3 ships. The total shipment was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were sent to China with a shipment of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82% and an 8% decrease from July. Some foreign merchants lowered their quotes compared to August 2025 [3] - **Demand**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 62,900 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had a daily average outbound volume of 34,400 cubic meters, a 2.99% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 22,200 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.02 million cubic meters, an 80,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week and a 2.72% week - on - week increase. The radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, an 80,000 - cubic - meter increase and a 3.35% week - on - week increase [3] - **Valuation**: The current delivery cost of log futures is 810 - 820 yuan/m³. The receiving value of the mainstream specifications is higher than the spot price, and the current valuation is neutral [3] - **Investment View and Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. No specific unilateral or arbitrage strategies are provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Log futures contracts oscillated last week. The current log fundamentals are stable, New Zealand's shipments have not increased significantly, and the daily average outbound volume remains at 60,000 m³. The log valuation is moderately high, but short - selling is not cost - effective [7] - **Futures Position**: As of September 19, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 20,750 lots, a 6.1% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2511 was 13,421 lots, a 13.1% decrease [10] - **Spot Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu showed slight increases. Shandong's 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/750/880 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/890 yuan/m³. Jiangsu's 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 720/770/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/860 yuan/m³ [14] PART THREE: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a 10.26% monthly decrease and a 3.90% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total imports were about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a 6.57% year - on - year decrease. In July 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.4581 million cubic meters, a 12.87% monthly decrease and a 3.35% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 10.7066 million cubic meters, a 1.24% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, the total import of radiata pine was about 1.3972 million cubic meters, a 13.04% monthly decrease and a 5.76% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, the total import of radiata pine was about 10.4161 million cubic meters, a 0.25% year - on - year increase [18] - **Shipment and Arrival**: From September 15 - 21, 2025, 6 ships with New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, a 50% week - on - week decrease. The total arrival volume was about 212,000 cubic meters, a 50% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, 3 ships were expected to arrive with a volume of about 96,000 cubic meters, accounting for 45% and a 62% week - on - week decrease. In Jiangsu, 3 ships were expected to arrive with a volume of about 116,000 cubic meters, accounting for 55% and an 11% week - on - week decrease [20] - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was between 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 815 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 38 yuan/m³. In August 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 125 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 113 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 1.4 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [26] - **Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.02 million cubic meters, a 2.72% week - on - week increase. The radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, a 3.35% week - on - week increase. The North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a 9.09% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week [28] - **Outbound Volume**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 62,900 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had a daily average outbound volume of 34,400 cubic meters, a 2.99% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 22,200 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase [32] - **Wooden Square**: As of September 19, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 1270 yuan/m³, with no weekly change. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, and in Jiangsu it was - 14.6 yuan/m³, both with no weekly change [35]
市场供需双增格局下 原木短期内上行动力仍显不足
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-19 06:06
Group 1 - The main contract for log futures experienced a slight decline of 0.43%, closing at 802.5 yuan, with a minimum drop to 800.0 yuan during trading [1] - Newhu Futures suggests a strategy of buying on dips for the log 11 contract, citing strong cost support and a low valuation in the current market [1] - The overall market is characterized by a supply-demand balance, with a gradual recovery in downstream demand and a stable inventory level at ports [2][3] Group 2 - According to Ruida Futures, the import volume of logs and softwood logs decreased slightly month-on-month in July, while year-on-year figures showed an increase [2] - The port inventory of softwood logs reached 3.02 million cubic meters, reflecting an increase of 80,000 cubic meters week-on-week, indicating a neutral level for the year [2] - Green Dahuah Futures notes that while external prices are rising, domestic market conditions remain weak, leading to increased pressure on traders [3]
原周报(LG):原木期货11合约偏弱震荡-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 08:29
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "volatile", indicating that the log futures are expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of logs is bearish as the number of departing ships from New Zealand and the total shipment volume decreased in August 2025, and some foreign merchants lowered their quotes. The demand, inventory, and trade profit are neutral. The overall investment view is that the log futures will be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82% and an 8% decrease from July. Some foreign merchants lowered their quotes [3] - **Demand**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,400 cubic meters, a 5.65% decrease, and Jiangsu ports had 21,600 cubic meters, a 4.85% decrease [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters and a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters and a 2.05% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Trade Profit**: After the decline in the foreign market quotes, the import profit has been repaired. The import profit of domestic traders for 3.9 medium A logs is about - 38 yuan/m³ [3] - **Investment View**: The log futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategies for unilateral and arbitrage trading are provided. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, the log futures contracts were in a weak and volatile state. The foreign market quotes dropped significantly in September 2025, and some spot specifications also declined. However, the inventory has not reached the inflection point of accumulation, so the overall trend is weak [7] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log futures and spot prices are presented in a graph, showing the relationship between the basis, futures closing price, and spot price [8] - **Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 22,108 lots, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2511 was 15,449 lots, a 4.4% decrease from the previous week [12] - **Spot Prices**: As of September 12, 2025, the prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu for different specifications are stable [16] PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a 10.26% month - on - month decrease and a 3.90% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a 6.57% year - on - year decrease. The import volume from New Zealand and of radiata pine also showed different changes [20] - **Shipping and Shipment**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from July [22] - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine is 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, with an import profit of about - 38 yuan/m³. In August 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 125 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, with an export profit of about 1.4 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [29] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease. The inventory in different regions and of different species also changed [33] - **Outbound Volume**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. The outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu ports also decreased [36] - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was 1,270 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged, and in Jiangsu, it was - 14.6 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease [39]
原周报(LG):原木期货11合约震荡运行-20250901
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 05:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the log market is "oscillation". The 11 - contract of log futures is expected to oscillate in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the log market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation. It concludes that all these factors are currently neutral, and the log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range. The key influencing factor to watch is the domestic demand situation [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55% [3]. - **Demand**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in the overseas market quotation, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of August 29, 2025, the trader's profit was - 69 yuan/m³ [3]. - **Valuation**: The delivery cost range of the 11 - contract is between 820 - 840 yuan/m³, and the overall valuation level is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: The log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: /; Arbitrage: /; Risk to watch: Domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The 09 - contract showed weak performance, and the 11 - contract oscillated. Last week, the log futures contract converged towards the receiving price, and the overall price showed weak performance. The delivery volume of the 09 - contract was low, and the fluctuation during the delivery month is expected to be limited. For the 11 - contract, there are currently no major contradictions, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has not arrived. It is currently expected to be in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [6]. - **Futures Position**: As of August 29, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 18,930 lots, a 33.5% decrease from last week. The position of the main 2509 contract was 13,583 lots, a 13.5% increase from last week [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of August 29, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 730/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Log Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.90%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.57%. In July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4581 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.35%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 10.7066 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. In July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 1.3972 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 13.04% and a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. From January to July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 10.4161 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.25% [22]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment and Delivery Volume**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55%. In terms of ports, 6 ships are expected to arrive at Shandong ports, with an arrival volume of about 212,000 cubic meters, accounting for 48%, and the arrival volume increased by 14% week - on - week. 5 ships are expected to arrive at Jiangsu ports, with an arrival volume of about 148,000 cubic meters, accounting for 34%, and the arrival volume increased by 131% week - on - week [25]. - **Trade Profit**: As of August 2025, the CFR quotation of radiata pine was 116 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 815 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 69 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week. The spruce/fir inventory was 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.86 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.32% from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 994,995 cubic meters, an increase of 1.22% from last week [33]. - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [35]. - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of August 22, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was 1280 yuan/m³, an increase of 20 yuan/m³ week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was - 20 yuan/m³, an increase of 4 yuan/m³ week - on - week [38].