Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure has been alleviated but the oversupply situation remains. The demand support is limited, and the inventory is increasing, with radiata pine inventory being the core pressure. The cost of the outer - market still has a downward pressure. In the short term, the log valuation will remain at the bottom - oscillating state, and the marginal impact of overseas shipment volume changes and domestic construction demand recovery progress on valuation needs to be concerned [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: The weekly shipment volume of New Zealand logs decreased by 110,000 cubic meters, and the arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports dropped to 395,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 26%), but the oversupply pattern was not reversed [3] - Demand: The提货 demand for knot - free timber drove the daily average outbound volume at Shandong ports to increase by 18.81% week - on - week, and the overall outbound volume at 13 ports increased by 5.57%. However, the capital availability rate at construction sites slightly decreased, and the demand for housing construction and non - housing construction projects was differentiated, with limited overall demand support [3] - Inventory: The total inventory increased to 2.93 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1.74%), and the radiata pine inventory accounted for over 80% and continued to accumulate, being the core of inventory pressure [3] - Cost: The outer - market quotation of radiata pine by Pacific was lowered to $116, but the sentiment of traders to receive ships was flat, and the outer - market price still had a downward pressure [3] 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see, with range - trading as the main approach - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage - Options: Wait and see [5] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - The spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu are at a relatively low historical level, with a certain safety margin in valuation. Although the outer - market price increased slightly by 1% week - on - week, the high domestic inventory pressure blocked the transmission of the outer - market price increase, making it difficult to support the restoration of spot valuation. The structural support on the demand side can only slow down the price decline, and factors such as high radiata pine inventory and cautious purchasing by traders suppress the upward movement of valuation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the log valuation will maintain a bottom - oscillating state [4] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Supply - New Zealand log shipment volume: From November 8 - 14, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 280,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 110,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 6 ships with 250,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 120,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] - Arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 12 ships, a decrease of 4 ships week - on - week, and the total arrival volume was about 395,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 136,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] 3.3.2 Log Inventory - By material: As of November 7, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.93 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week [16] - By province: As of November 7, the total inventory at 3 Shandong ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Jiangsu ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Fujian ports increased by 133 cubic meters, at 2 Hebei ports decreased by 2,000 cubic meters, and at Dongguan Port in Guangdong increased by 20,000 cubic meters [16] 3.3.3 Log Demand - Outbound volume: The daily average outbound volume was 66,300 cubic meters, an increase of 3,500 cubic meters week - on - week. Shandong had a significant increase, while Jiangsu, Fujian, and Guangdong showed decreases [22] - Construction site capital availability: As of November 4, the capital availability rate at sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. However, the capital improvement has not been fully transmitted to the log procurement end, and downstream procurement is still mainly for rigid demand replenishment [22] 3.3.4 Log Prices - Radiata pine: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port was 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port was 760 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% [26][29] - Spruce: In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter, 20 - cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week [29] - Downstream timber: The mainstream transaction price of 3000 * 40 * 90 radiata pine timber was 1,260 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and Jiangsu markets, and that of 3000 * 40 * 90 spruce/white pine timber was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and 1,680 yuan/cubic meter in Jiangsu [34] 3.3.5 Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter from last month [40] - Spruce outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter, 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter from last month [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. Consider shorting after a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log ships left the port, a monthly increase of 8. The total shipment was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from September [4][21]. - **Demand**: From November 10th to November 16th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 65,600 cubic meters, a 1.06% decrease from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, a 20,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week, a 0.68% week - on - week increase [4]. - **Valuation**: The current log price is lower than the delivery cost, and the valuation is low [4]. - **Investment View**: The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. Consider shorting after a rebound [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific unilateral or arbitrage strategies are provided. Attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Price**: Log futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The far - month contracts have limited further downward space after a sharp decline, while the near - month contracts continued to fall due to the large delivery pressure of domestic timber. The current log spot market is weak, and shorting after a rebound is considered [9]. - **Open Interest**: As of November 21, 2025, the total open interest of log futures contracts was 23,721 lots, an 8.6% increase from the previous week. The open interest of the main log futures contract 2601 was 17,585 lots, a 10.2% increase from the previous week [10]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine in different specifications decreased, and the prices of Jiangsu radiata pine in different specifications also showed certain changes [12]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a 4.67% monthly decrease and a 7.14% year - on - year decrease. From January to October 2025, the total imports were about 19.9238 million cubic meters, an 8.04% year - on - year decrease. In October 2025, China's imports of coniferous logs from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a 0.23% monthly decrease and a 12.47% year - on - year increase. From January to October 2025, the total imports from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a 1.80% year - on - year increase [18]. - **Shipping Volume**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log ships left the port, a monthly increase of 8. The total shipment was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from September [21]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, a 20,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week, a 0.68% week - on - week increase. The radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, a 20,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week, a 0.83% week - on - week increase. The North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week, a 10.00% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week [29]. - **Outbound Volume**: From November 10th to November 16th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 65,600 cubic meters, a 1.06% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 36,700 cubic meters, a 3.17% decrease from the previous week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,400 cubic meters, a 7.02% increase from the previous week [32]. - **Processing**: As of November 21, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,250 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 3.8 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week, and that in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan per cubic meter, a 5 - yuan increase from the previous week [35].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of logs is bearish, with an increase in the number of departing vessels and shipping volume from New Zealand in October 2025. The demand, inventory, and valuation are neutral. After the expectation of rising sea freight failed, the log price dropped significantly, and the drivers in the fourth quarter are bearish. Considering the current low valuation, shorting after a pullback can be considered [4]. - The near - month log contracts dropped significantly, while the far - month contracts were stable. The far - month contracts have limited further downside space after the sharp drop, and the near - month contracts continued to decline due to the large delivery pressure of domestic timber. Currently, the log spot is weak, and shorting after a rebound can be considered [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log vessels left the port, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month. The total shipping volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipping volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75% and a 2% increase from September [4][24]. - **Demand**: From October 27th to November 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31st, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.41% week - on - week increase [4][32]. - **Valuation**: The current log price is lower than the delivery cost, with a low valuation [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: After the expectation of rising sea freight failed, the log price dropped significantly, and the drivers in the fourth quarter are bearish. Considering the current low valuation, shorting after a pullback can be considered [4]. 2. Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: The near - month log contracts dropped significantly, while the far - month contracts were stable. The far - month contracts have limited further downside space after the sharp drop, and the near - month contracts continued to decline due to the large delivery pressure of domestic timber. Currently, the log spot is weak, and shorting after a rebound can be considered [7]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log futures and spot prices showed that the spot was weak, and shorting after a rebound was considered [7]. - **Futures Positions**: As of November 7, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 23,242 lots, a 13.9% increase from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract 2601 was 18,027 lots, a 14.9% increase from the previous week [11]. 3. Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 2.0013 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase and a 7.37% year - on - year decrease. From January to September 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 18.016 million cubic meters, an 8.14% year - on - year decrease. In September 2025, China imported about 1.4993 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 14.79% month - on - month increase and a 4.08% year - on - year increase. From January to September 2025, China imported about 13.502 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 0.74% year - on - year increase [21]. - **Shipping Volume from New Zealand**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log vessels left the port, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month. The total shipping volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipping volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75% and a 2% increase from September [4][24]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31st, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.41% week - on - week increase; the radiation pine inventory was 2.36 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.72% week - on - week increase; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 9.09% week - on - week decrease; the spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of provincial inventory, as of October 31st, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.883 million cubic meters, a 0.97% increase from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 822,594 cubic meters, a 4.54% increase from the previous week [32]. - **Outbound Volume**: From October 27th to November 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 31,900 cubic meters, a 9.89% decrease from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 24,300 cubic meters, a 4.29% increase from the previous week [35]. - **Downstream**: As of November 7, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/cubic meter, a 20 - yuan/cubic - meter week - on - week decrease; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 3.8 yuan/cubic meter, a 15 - yuan/cubic - meter week - on - week increase; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and shipping sanctions have a marginal bullish impact on far - month log prices. The additional port fees may lead to an increase in CFR quotes or a reduction in the number of imported ships, affecting the supply volume. In the current weak supply - demand balance, a significant supply contraction could change the supply - demand pattern. However, the implementation of port surcharges may be variable [5]. - For the far - month 01 contract, it is recommended to cautiously go long with dynamic drawdown stop - losses. The 11 contract follows the delivery logic, with low buyer acceptance, but it may rise following the far - month contract. Currently, the cost of rolling over to the far - month contract is not in the safe range [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Sino - US trade frictions and shipping sanctions lead to an increase in import costs, with some log - importing ships being charged special port fees, adding about a dozen dollars per cubic meter to the import cost. This may either increase CFR quotes or reduce the number of imported ships, with the latter being more likely. The supply - demand pattern may change if there is a significant supply contraction. However, the implementation of port surcharges may be affected by future negotiations [5]. 1.2 Transaction - Type Strategy Recommendations - The 11 contract is expected to rebound, and the 01 contract is expected to break through upwards. It is recommended to cautiously go long on the 01 contract with dynamic drawdown stop - losses to deal with possible policy adjustments [10][11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 820 - 830 [12]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy log futures to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 780 - 800 [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Seasonal decline in inventory, which is at a historical low; the start of special port fee collection is bullish for far - month prices [11][15]. - Bearish information: Low buyer acceptance in delivery and high seller delivery costs [13]. - Spot transaction information: Provided spot prices and basis data for different log specifications [16]. - Basis strategy: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis. - Spread strategy: Short the 11 - 01 spread [14]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The 01 contract broke through upwards, with an increase of 2,800 lots in positions on Friday [17]. - In the spread structure, the deep discount pattern of near - month contracts has been somewhat repaired by the far - month bullish factors, but a spread of 30 is not considered absolutely safe [19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Valuation - The warehouse receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 831 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong region it is around 833 yuan/cubic meter. The buyer's acceptance price, calculated at a 20 - yuan discount on the spot price, is around 792 yuan/cubic meter. When the price approaches the warehouse receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [25]. 4.2 Import Profit - Import profits have been somewhat repaired. Reducing the proportion of imported materials and increasing the proportion of integrated materials can improve the import profit of the whole ship [26]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From October 9th to 15th, New Zealand dispatched 17 ships, 7 more than the previous period, with 15 ships expected to head to the Chinese mainland. - After the holiday, inventory is expected to fluctuate slightly and then trend towards de - stocking due to previous events. - As of October 10th, the daily average outbound volume was 57,300 cubic meters, with large fluctuations around the National Day. Overall, the demand is expected to remain relatively stable [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the log futures will run strongly [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and the log futures are expected to run strongly. The supply situation has a slightly negative impact, while demand and inventory factors have a positive impact. The valuation is considered neutral [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% (100,000 cubic meters). The number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% (2 ships), showing a slightly negative impact [4] - **Demand**: As of September 26, the average daily log outbound volume of 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 9.70% (5,800 cubic meters), indicating a positive impact [4] - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.86 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% (60,000 cubic meters). The radiata pine inventory was 2.35 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67% (40,000 cubic meters), having a positive impact [4] - **Valuation**: The current log futures delivery cost is between 830 - 840 yuan/m³, with a neutral valuation [4] - **Investment View**: The fundamentals are stable, and the log futures are expected to run strongly [4] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, the log futures ran strongly. Due to the increase in spot prices and strong fundamentals, there was a slight increase. Currently, the delivery logic is not being traded, and with firm spot prices and inventory not reaching the inflection point, it is expected to continue running strongly. As of October 10, 2025, the total log futures contract open interest was 19,649 lots, a 1.8% decrease from last week. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 9,354 lots, a 24% decrease from last week [7][12] - **Spot Market**: As of October 10, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/790/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [17] 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. The import volume from New Zealand was 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. The radiata pine import volume was 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [22] - **Expected Shipment from New Zealand**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% (100,000 cubic meters). The number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% (2 ships) [25] - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.86 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% (60,000 cubic meters). The radiata pine inventory was 2.35 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67% (40,000 cubic meters). The North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10.00% (10,000 cubic meters). The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76% (10,000 cubic meters). As of September 26, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.774 million cubic meters, an increase of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 847,893 cubic meters, an increase of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period [32] - **Outbound Volume**: As of September 26, the average daily log outbound volume of 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 9.70% (5,800 cubic meters). Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 34,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 12.42% (3,800 cubic meters). The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 26,300 cubic meters, an increase of 3,300 cubic meters from the previous period [35] - **Wooden Square**: As of October 10, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was also 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "oscillating" [3] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and log futures are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply, demand, inventory, and valuation factors are all rated as neutral [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand with logs, a monthly decrease of 3 ships. The total shipment was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were sent to China with a shipment of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82% and an 8% decrease from July. Some foreign merchants lowered their quotes compared to August 2025 [3] - **Demand**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 62,900 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had a daily average outbound volume of 34,400 cubic meters, a 2.99% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 22,200 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.02 million cubic meters, an 80,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week and a 2.72% week - on - week increase. The radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, an 80,000 - cubic - meter increase and a 3.35% week - on - week increase [3] - **Valuation**: The current delivery cost of log futures is 810 - 820 yuan/m³. The receiving value of the mainstream specifications is higher than the spot price, and the current valuation is neutral [3] - **Investment View and Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. No specific unilateral or arbitrage strategies are provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Log futures contracts oscillated last week. The current log fundamentals are stable, New Zealand's shipments have not increased significantly, and the daily average outbound volume remains at 60,000 m³. The log valuation is moderately high, but short - selling is not cost - effective [7] - **Futures Position**: As of September 19, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 20,750 lots, a 6.1% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2511 was 13,421 lots, a 13.1% decrease [10] - **Spot Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu showed slight increases. Shandong's 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/750/880 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/890 yuan/m³. Jiangsu's 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 720/770/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/860 yuan/m³ [14] PART THREE: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a 10.26% monthly decrease and a 3.90% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total imports were about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a 6.57% year - on - year decrease. In July 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.4581 million cubic meters, a 12.87% monthly decrease and a 3.35% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 10.7066 million cubic meters, a 1.24% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, the total import of radiata pine was about 1.3972 million cubic meters, a 13.04% monthly decrease and a 5.76% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, the total import of radiata pine was about 10.4161 million cubic meters, a 0.25% year - on - year increase [18] - **Shipment and Arrival**: From September 15 - 21, 2025, 6 ships with New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, a 50% week - on - week decrease. The total arrival volume was about 212,000 cubic meters, a 50% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, 3 ships were expected to arrive with a volume of about 96,000 cubic meters, accounting for 45% and a 62% week - on - week decrease. In Jiangsu, 3 ships were expected to arrive with a volume of about 116,000 cubic meters, accounting for 55% and an 11% week - on - week decrease [20] - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was between 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 815 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 38 yuan/m³. In August 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 125 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 113 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 1.4 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [26] - **Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.02 million cubic meters, a 2.72% week - on - week increase. The radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, a 3.35% week - on - week increase. The North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a 9.09% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week [28] - **Outbound Volume**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 62,900 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had a daily average outbound volume of 34,400 cubic meters, a 2.99% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 22,200 cubic meters, a 2.78% increase [32] - **Wooden Square**: As of September 19, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 1270 yuan/m³, with no weekly change. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, and in Jiangsu it was - 14.6 yuan/m³, both with no weekly change [35]

Group 1 - The main contract for log futures experienced a slight decline of 0.43%, closing at 802.5 yuan, with a minimum drop to 800.0 yuan during trading [1] - Newhu Futures suggests a strategy of buying on dips for the log 11 contract, citing strong cost support and a low valuation in the current market [1] - The overall market is characterized by a supply-demand balance, with a gradual recovery in downstream demand and a stable inventory level at ports [2][3] Group 2 - According to Ruida Futures, the import volume of logs and softwood logs decreased slightly month-on-month in July, while year-on-year figures showed an increase [2] - The port inventory of softwood logs reached 3.02 million cubic meters, reflecting an increase of 80,000 cubic meters week-on-week, indicating a neutral level for the year [2] - Green Dahuah Futures notes that while external prices are rising, domestic market conditions remain weak, leading to increased pressure on traders [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "volatile", indicating that the log futures are expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of logs is bearish as the number of departing ships from New Zealand and the total shipment volume decreased in August 2025, and some foreign merchants lowered their quotes. The demand, inventory, and trade profit are neutral. The overall investment view is that the log futures will be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82% and an 8% decrease from July. Some foreign merchants lowered their quotes [3] - **Demand**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,400 cubic meters, a 5.65% decrease, and Jiangsu ports had 21,600 cubic meters, a 4.85% decrease [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters and a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters and a 2.05% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Trade Profit**: After the decline in the foreign market quotes, the import profit has been repaired. The import profit of domestic traders for 3.9 medium A logs is about - 38 yuan/m³ [3] - **Investment View**: The log futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategies for unilateral and arbitrage trading are provided. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, the log futures contracts were in a weak and volatile state. The foreign market quotes dropped significantly in September 2025, and some spot specifications also declined. However, the inventory has not reached the inflection point of accumulation, so the overall trend is weak [7] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log futures and spot prices are presented in a graph, showing the relationship between the basis, futures closing price, and spot price [8] - **Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 22,108 lots, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2511 was 15,449 lots, a 4.4% decrease from the previous week [12] - **Spot Prices**: As of September 12, 2025, the prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu for different specifications are stable [16] PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a 10.26% month - on - month decrease and a 3.90% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a 6.57% year - on - year decrease. The import volume from New Zealand and of radiata pine also showed different changes [20] - **Shipping and Shipment**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from July [22] - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine is 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, with an import profit of about - 38 yuan/m³. In August 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 125 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, with an export profit of about 1.4 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [29] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease. The inventory in different regions and of different species also changed [33] - **Outbound Volume**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. The outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu ports also decreased [36] - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was 1,270 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged, and in Jiangsu, it was - 14.6 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the log market is "oscillation". The 11 - contract of log futures is expected to oscillate in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the log market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation. It concludes that all these factors are currently neutral, and the log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range. The key influencing factor to watch is the domestic demand situation [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55% [3]. - **Demand**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in the overseas market quotation, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of August 29, 2025, the trader's profit was - 69 yuan/m³ [3]. - **Valuation**: The delivery cost range of the 11 - contract is between 820 - 840 yuan/m³, and the overall valuation level is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: The log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: /; Arbitrage: /; Risk to watch: Domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The 09 - contract showed weak performance, and the 11 - contract oscillated. Last week, the log futures contract converged towards the receiving price, and the overall price showed weak performance. The delivery volume of the 09 - contract was low, and the fluctuation during the delivery month is expected to be limited. For the 11 - contract, there are currently no major contradictions, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has not arrived. It is currently expected to be in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [6]. - **Futures Position**: As of August 29, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 18,930 lots, a 33.5% decrease from last week. The position of the main 2509 contract was 13,583 lots, a 13.5% increase from last week [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of August 29, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 730/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Log Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.90%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.57%. In July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4581 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.35%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 10.7066 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. In July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 1.3972 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 13.04% and a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. From January to July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 10.4161 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.25% [22]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment and Delivery Volume**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55%. In terms of ports, 6 ships are expected to arrive at Shandong ports, with an arrival volume of about 212,000 cubic meters, accounting for 48%, and the arrival volume increased by 14% week - on - week. 5 ships are expected to arrive at Jiangsu ports, with an arrival volume of about 148,000 cubic meters, accounting for 34%, and the arrival volume increased by 131% week - on - week [25]. - **Trade Profit**: As of August 2025, the CFR quotation of radiata pine was 116 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 815 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 69 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week. The spruce/fir inventory was 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.86 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.32% from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 994,995 cubic meters, an increase of 1.22% from last week [33]. - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [35]. - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of August 22, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was 1280 yuan/m³, an increase of 20 yuan/m³ week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was - 20 yuan/m³, an increase of 4 yuan/m³ week - on - week [38].