Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being volatile, volatile, and volatile but on the stronger side respectively [1][5]. - The main reasons are the increasing geopolitical risks, the approaching US debt crisis in June which may trigger a new round of macro negative impacts, and OPEC+ accelerating the production increase rhythm. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of crude oil 2507 are volatile, volatile, and volatile but on the stronger side respectively, with a reference view of strong operation [1]. Driving Logic - With the approaching of the US debt crisis in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of macro negative impacts [5]. - OPEC+ is accelerating the production increase rhythm, with a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. It may completely cancel the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts by the end of October [5]. - Due to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and increasing geopolitical risks, international crude oil futures prices rose slightly during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, so the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger after the holiday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-14 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观因子向好，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：欧佩克+产油国 6 月进一步加快增产节奏，同时美国页岩油产量也稳步增长，这令油市供 应过剩预期加重。随着利空情绪消化，进入 5 月中旬以后，逐渐临近原油消费旺季，需求因子或稳 步 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-13 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：欧佩克+产油国 6 月进一步加快增产节奏，同时美国页岩油产量也稳步增长，这令油市供 应过剩预期加重。随着利空情绪消化，进入 5 月中旬以后，逐渐临近原油消费旺季，需求因子或稳 步增强，这对原油期价形成一定支撑。在中美经 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run strongly. It shows a volatile trend in the short - term, a volatile and slightly weak trend in the medium - term, and a volatile and slightly strong trend intraday [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Performance - Last Friday night, the price of domestic crude oil futures rose slightly by 1.31% to 464.6 yuan per barrel [5] 3.2 Core Logic - OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and US shale oil production is also growing steadily, which increases the expectation of oversupply in the oil market. After the digestion of negative sentiment, as the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, the demand factor may gradually strengthen, supporting the crude oil futures price. The progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations boosts market risk appetite [5]