本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【8月原油市场：供应压力大但短期油价易涨难跌】8月，原油宏观面不确定性增加。地缘政治局势缓 和，然而关税谈判变数大。基本面来看，OPEC+已完成退出减产计划，8月大概率加速增产，供应端增 产节奏不变，供应压力较大。 不过，短期原油处于消费旺季，需求支撑增强，下行阻力较大。当前价 格下，OPEC+缺乏实际增产动力，6月实际增产低于预期，后续增产执行力度待察。 综合来看，短期原 油消费旺季背景下，油价易涨难跌，但供应压力限制了上方空间。 策略上，短期预计主力2509合约价 格区间在，操作建议为多单持续持有，上方第一阻力在520附近。 ...

2025年6月15日，农历五月二十，星期天。按照国内油价以工作日为调价的规定，双休假期，国内油价调整休市，市场延续本次调价前8个工作日的变化！但 是，周末，原油市场异动，受地缘局势影响，国际油价单日大涨超7%，最近2周，国际油价呈现显著上涨的走势！本轮周期内，原油价格累计大涨超 16.7%！受此影响，本轮周期最后2个工作日，油价"又大涨"，下周二，今年第12次调价，国内油价大涨确定，车友们相互提醒，顺路提前加油，否则会多花 不少钱，具体分析如下： 【国内油价变化】在国内市场，进入2025年第12次调价周期，受原油价格重心偏强，本轮周期内，原油变化率持续走高！截至本周五，本轮周期完成前8个 工作日，参考原油均价66美元/桶，汽柴油统计上涨幅度在155元/吨，此次油价处于上涨范畴，折合升价，全国92,95号汽油，油价大涨达0.14元/升！ 截至6月15日，受双休影响，本次油价统计涨价幅度仍维持在155元/吨！但是，这并未包含本周五国际油价单日大涨超7%的水平。按照油价形成机制，以三 地原油变化为参考，6月13日WTI原油72.98美元/桶，布伦特原油74.23美元/桶，统计原油均价显著超过第8个工作日66美元/桶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish on dips [1] - PTA: Bullish on dips [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Showing signs of stopping decline [1] - Caustic soda: Bearish [1] - Methanol: Bearish on rallies [1] - Urea: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices are rebounding strongly. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, and the upcoming summer peak season for crude oil consumption provides support [1][4][5]. - LPG: Supply and demand are both increasing, and LPG is in a sideways adjustment. The cost - end oil price is driven by geopolitical factors and the consumption peak season, and the pressure on the futures market has decreased [1][7][8]. - L: After the holiday, petrochemical inventories have increased, and there is no upward driving force in the short - term. Although the decline space is limited, there is still a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][10]. - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][13]. - PVC: The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][16]. - PX: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals continue to improve in May. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost [1][17][18]. - PTA: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, but the demand is relatively good for now. It is short - term bullish but there is a weakening expectation in the future, so pay attention to shorting opportunities [1][20][21]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure has been relieved, and the demand is at a high level but expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and it is short - term bullish [1][22]. - Glass: The medium - term demand is shrinking, and the spot price is falling. The cost center is moving down, and the bottom - fishing is not safe [1][24][25]. - Soda ash: The supply pressure is increasing, and the rigid demand support is insufficient. The inventory is at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1][26][27]. - Caustic soda: The supply has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The futures market is weakening [1][29]. - Methanol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1]. - Urea: The supply pressure remains, but there is support from the peak fertilizer - using season in July and the Indian tender. It shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and the inventory is relatively favorable. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.42%, Brent up 1.55%, and SC up 2.74% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks have risen due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Supply from Russia and Brazil is stable, and global demand is expected to increase slightly. US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, oil prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to over - supply. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors and may fall after the risk is released. SC focuses on [465 - 485] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 3, the PG main contract closed at 4074 yuan/ton, up 0.94% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price strengthened during the Dragon Boat Festival. Supply and demand are both increasing, with refinery production rising and PDH device demand expected to increase. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to over - supply of upstream crude oil. Technically, it is sideways. The strategy is to sell call options. PG focuses on [4065 - 4130] [9]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and import margins were relatively stable [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, but there is still pressure from new device production in the medium - term. Demand is weak in June. Petrochemical inventories have increased after the holiday [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities. Be cautious about the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts rose slightly, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and production margins changed slightly [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Many maintenance devices have restarted, increasing supply. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and new capacity will intensify the supply - demand contradiction [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices were stable or slightly decreased. Cost and profit indicators changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance scale has narrowed, increasing supply. Demand is in the off - season due to the approaching rainy season. The cost has decreased [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Be aware of macro - systematic risks [16]. PX - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and processing spreads changed [17]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profit has improved, and domestic and overseas device loads have increased, increasing supply. PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, improving demand. Inventory decreased in April but is still high [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6510, 6680] [19]. PTA - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [20]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, increasing supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is short - term bullish, but pay attention to shorting opportunities due to the expected weakening of fundamentals [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, relieving supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4270, 4350] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the futures market was under pressure. The basis increased, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro - risk preference is low, and the medium - term demand for glass is shrinking. In the short - term, it is the off - season, and enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory. Supply is not expected to decrease due to profit [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [950, 980], and it is expected to approach the 5 - day moving average in the short - term [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot prices decreased, and the futures market was weak. The basis increased, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the forecast increased [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is increasing as maintenance devices restart and new capacity comes on - stream. Demand is weak due to the decline of the glass market and the end of the photovoltaic rush. Inventory is high [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rebounded at a low level. The basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has increased as many maintenance devices restarted. The profit of alumina has improved, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has decreased. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided in the given text. Methanol - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase as the overseas arrival volume is expected to be realized. Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and inventory is accumulating [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to shorting opportunities [1]. Urea - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains as maintenance devices restart. Demand is in the domestic off - season but has support from the Indian tender and the peak fertilizer - using season in July. Cost is weak but has a bottom support [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and shorting on rallies. Urea shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and inventory is relatively favorable. Demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the trend of oil prices. BU focuses on [3500 - 3560] [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1][3][4] - LPG: Bullish [1][6][7] - L: Sideways [1][9][10] - PP: Sideways [1][12][13] - PVC: Sideways [1][15][16] - PX: Bullish [1][18][19] - PTA: Bullish [1][21][22] - MEG: Bullish [1][24][25] - Glass: Bearish [2][27][28] - Soda Ash: Bearish [2][30][31] - Caustic Soda: Pullback [2][32][33] - Methanol: Rebound and Short [2] - Urea: Cautiously Long at Low Levels [2] - Asphalt: Bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks rise, OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and the summer consumption peak is approaching, so the price is bullish [1][3][4] - LPG: Oil price rebounds and warehouse receipt pressure decreases, so the short - term trend is bullish [1][6][7] - L: After the holiday, the decline of spot prices slows down. Short - term supply pressure eases, but there is no upward driver in the off - season, so it shows a sideways trend [1][9][10] - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and it is in the domestic demand off - season. After continuous decline, it oscillates, and there is still a risk of further decline in the medium term [1][12][13] - PVC: Supply increases, demand is weak in both domestic and foreign markets, and there are multiple negative factors, so the price still has a risk of further decline [1][15][16] - PX: Profit improves, device load increases, and both supply and demand increase. It follows cost fluctuations and is bullish [1][18][19] - PTA: Although there is a plan for new capacity in June, downstream demand is relatively good and inventory is decreasing. It is bullish in the short term, but there are concerns about the weakening of fundamentals [1][21][22] - MEG: Device maintenance increases, arrival volume is low, and supply pressure eases. Demand is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing, so it is bullish in the short term [1][24][25] - Glass: Macro risks reduce risk preference, and demand in the medium term shrinks. In the short - term off - season, the spot market is weak, and the price is bearish [2][27][28] - Soda Ash: Supply pressure increases, demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. The cost center moves down, so the price is bearish [2][30][31] - Caustic Soda: Supply increases slightly, and the price corrects within a range [2][32][33] - Methanol: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. It may rebound with the oil price, but there are short - selling opportunities [2] - Urea: Supply pressure remains, but there are some positive factors such as the peak fertilizer - using period and the India tender. It has a "ceiling and floor" trend [2] - Asphalt: Driven by the cost of rising oil prices, it is bullish in the short term [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 2.85% and Brent up 2.95%. SC had no quote during the Dragon Boat Festival [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ production increase in July meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks rise due to the Ukraine - Russia conflict. Global oil demand is expected to increase slightly, and US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors such as trade wars and new energy, supply is in excess, and the price fluctuates between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors, and SC is expected to be in the range of [465 - 485] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 30, the PG main contract closed at 4036 yuan/ton, down 1.68% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil increased during the holidays, and the fundamentals of LPG improved. Downstream PDH operating rate increased, and port inventory decreased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and LPG is over - valued, so it is bearish. After the holiday, it may gap up. Temporarily wait and see, and go short at high levels after risk release. PG is expected to be in the range of [4080 - 4150] [8]. L - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the decline of spot prices slowed down, and the North China basis was 90 (up 55 month - on - month) [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: After the holiday, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, but demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 30 - 80 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term supply pressure eases, but there is no upward driver. The short - term decline space is limited, but there is a risk of further decline in the medium term. Go short on rebounds. L is expected to be in the range of [6900 - 7050] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the East China drawstring basis was 180 (up 38 month - on - month) [13]. - **Basic Logic**: In June, new capacity is concentrated, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to be weak and sideways, with a possible buffer increase at the beginning of the month [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is high pressure from new device production, and it is in the domestic demand off - season. After continuous decline, it oscillates, and there is still a risk of further decline in the medium term. Go short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [6800 - 6950] [13]. PVC - **Market Review**: The Changzhou basis was - 84 (up 10 month - on - month), and warehouse receipts continued to decline [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Maintenance decreases, supply increases, and demand is weak both at home and abroad. The cost is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to cost collapse, device production expectations, and export uncertainties, the price still has a risk of further decline. Go short on rebounds. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4850] [16]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 6900 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6618 yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profit improves, device load increases, and both supply and demand increase. The inventory decreased in April but is still high. In May, the fundamentals continued to improve, and it is bullish [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6650 - 6800] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 4940 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Although there are many device maintenance and a plan for new capacity in June, the demand from downstream polyester is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing. However, there are concerns about the weakening of fundamentals [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4730 - 4830]. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. MEG - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 4488 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4349 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance increases, arrival volume is low, and supply pressure eases. Demand from downstream polyester is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4350 - 4430]. Continue to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low levels [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes were lowered, the futures price broke through support, the basis fluctuated slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro risks reduce risk preference, and the decline in real - estate completion has expanded, so the medium - term demand for glass shrinks. In the short - term off - season, enterprises and traders reduce prices to clear inventory, and the cost center moves down [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [970 - 1000], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was lowered, the futures price was weak, the basis was low, the number of warehouse receipts increased, and the number of forecasts decreased [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Demand is insufficient due to the weak glass market and the end of the photovoltaic installation peak. Inventory is high, and the cost center moves down [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1180 - 1210], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda was stable, the futures price rose at a low level, the basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases slightly as the capacity utilization rate rises. The profit of the alumina industry improves, and the inventory of caustic soda decreases [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price corrects within a range, and SA is expected to be in the range of [2400 - 2450] [2][33]. Methanol - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. It may rebound with the oil price, but there are short - selling opportunities. MA is expected to be in the range of [2220 - 2280] [2]. Urea - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply pressure remains, but there are positive factors such as the peak fertilizer - using period in July and the India tender. It has a "ceiling and floor" trend, and a strategy of going long at low levels and shorting at high levels can be adopted. UR is expected to be in the range of [1780 - 1820] [2]. Asphalt - **Strategy Recommendation**: Driven by the cost of rising oil prices, it is bullish in the short term. BU is expected to be in the range of [3500 - 3560] [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-14 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观因子向好，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：欧佩克+产油国 6 月进一步加快增产节奏，同时美国页岩油产量也稳步增长，这令油市供 应过剩预期加重。随着利空情绪消化，进入 5 月中旬以后，逐渐临近原油消费旺季，需求因子或稳 步 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-13 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：欧佩克+产油国 6 月进一步加快增产节奏，同时美国页岩油产量也稳步增长，这令油市供 应过剩预期加重。随着利空情绪消化，进入 5 月中旬以后，逐渐临近原油消费旺季，需求因子或稳 步增强，这对原油期价形成一定支撑。在中美经 ...