Core Insights - The macro uncertainty in the crude oil market has increased in August, with geopolitical tensions easing but tariff negotiations remaining unpredictable [1] - OPEC+ has completed its exit from the production cut plan and is likely to accelerate production in August, leading to significant supply pressure [1] - Despite the supply pressure, the current demand during the consumption peak season is expected to provide support for prices, making it difficult for oil prices to decline significantly [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ has shown a lack of actual motivation to increase production at current price levels, with June's actual production increase falling short of expectations [1] - The short-term outlook suggests that while oil prices may rise due to seasonal demand, the supply pressure will limit the upside potential [1] - The main contract price for crude oil is expected to range around a specific level, with a recommendation to maintain long positions, targeting a resistance level near 520 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent military actions in the Middle East, leading to expectations of a substantial increase in domestic fuel prices in China [1][3][5]. Oil Market - International oil prices experienced a notable increase, with WTI crude oil rising to $72.98 per barrel and Brent crude oil reaching $74.23 per barrel, marking daily increases of 7.26% and 7.02% respectively [3]. - Over the current pricing cycle, WTI crude oil has increased from $62.52 to $72.98 per barrel, reflecting a rise of 16.73%, while Brent crude oil has risen from $64.63 to $74.23 per barrel, showing a 14.85% increase [3][5]. - The rise in oil prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the worsening situation in the Middle East following Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, which has raised concerns about global oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz [3][5]. Domestic Oil Price Changes - In China, the domestic oil price adjustment cycle has seen a reference average price of $66 per barrel, leading to an increase of 155 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a rise of approximately 0.14 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline [5]. - The upcoming price adjustment on June 17 is expected to confirm a significant increase in domestic fuel prices, with some estimates suggesting a potential rise of around 250 yuan per ton [5][7]. - The current pricing cycle has been influenced by the recent surge in international oil prices, which has not yet been fully reflected in domestic pricing due to the timing of the price adjustment [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish on dips [1] - PTA: Bullish on dips [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Showing signs of stopping decline [1] - Caustic soda: Bearish [1] - Methanol: Bearish on rallies [1] - Urea: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices are rebounding strongly. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, and the upcoming summer peak season for crude oil consumption provides support [1][4][5]. - LPG: Supply and demand are both increasing, and LPG is in a sideways adjustment. The cost - end oil price is driven by geopolitical factors and the consumption peak season, and the pressure on the futures market has decreased [1][7][8]. - L: After the holiday, petrochemical inventories have increased, and there is no upward driving force in the short - term. Although the decline space is limited, there is still a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][10]. - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][13]. - PVC: The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][16]. - PX: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals continue to improve in May. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost [1][17][18]. - PTA: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, but the demand is relatively good for now. It is short - term bullish but there is a weakening expectation in the future, so pay attention to shorting opportunities [1][20][21]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure has been relieved, and the demand is at a high level but expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and it is short - term bullish [1][22]. - Glass: The medium - term demand is shrinking, and the spot price is falling. The cost center is moving down, and the bottom - fishing is not safe [1][24][25]. - Soda ash: The supply pressure is increasing, and the rigid demand support is insufficient. The inventory is at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1][26][27]. - Caustic soda: The supply has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The futures market is weakening [1][29]. - Methanol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1]. - Urea: The supply pressure remains, but there is support from the peak fertilizer - using season in July and the Indian tender. It shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and the inventory is relatively favorable. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.42%, Brent up 1.55%, and SC up 2.74% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks have risen due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Supply from Russia and Brazil is stable, and global demand is expected to increase slightly. US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, oil prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to over - supply. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors and may fall after the risk is released. SC focuses on [465 - 485] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 3, the PG main contract closed at 4074 yuan/ton, up 0.94% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price strengthened during the Dragon Boat Festival. Supply and demand are both increasing, with refinery production rising and PDH device demand expected to increase. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to over - supply of upstream crude oil. Technically, it is sideways. The strategy is to sell call options. PG focuses on [4065 - 4130] [9]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and import margins were relatively stable [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, but there is still pressure from new device production in the medium - term. Demand is weak in June. Petrochemical inventories have increased after the holiday [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities. Be cautious about the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts rose slightly, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and production margins changed slightly [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Many maintenance devices have restarted, increasing supply. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and new capacity will intensify the supply - demand contradiction [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices were stable or slightly decreased. Cost and profit indicators changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance scale has narrowed, increasing supply. Demand is in the off - season due to the approaching rainy season. The cost has decreased [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Be aware of macro - systematic risks [16]. PX - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and processing spreads changed [17]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profit has improved, and domestic and overseas device loads have increased, increasing supply. PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, improving demand. Inventory decreased in April but is still high [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6510, 6680] [19]. PTA - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [20]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, increasing supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is short - term bullish, but pay attention to shorting opportunities due to the expected weakening of fundamentals [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, relieving supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4270, 4350] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the futures market was under pressure. The basis increased, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro - risk preference is low, and the medium - term demand for glass is shrinking. In the short - term, it is the off - season, and enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory. Supply is not expected to decrease due to profit [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [950, 980], and it is expected to approach the 5 - day moving average in the short - term [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot prices decreased, and the futures market was weak. The basis increased, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the forecast increased [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is increasing as maintenance devices restart and new capacity comes on - stream. Demand is weak due to the decline of the glass market and the end of the photovoltaic rush. Inventory is high [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rebounded at a low level. The basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has increased as many maintenance devices restarted. The profit of alumina has improved, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has decreased. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided in the given text. Methanol - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase as the overseas arrival volume is expected to be realized. Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and inventory is accumulating [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to shorting opportunities [1]. Urea - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains as maintenance devices restart. Demand is in the domestic off - season but has support from the Indian tender and the peak fertilizer - using season in July. Cost is weak but has a bottom support [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and shorting on rallies. Urea shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and inventory is relatively favorable. Demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the trend of oil prices. BU focuses on [3500 - 3560] [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1][3][4] - LPG: Bullish [1][6][7] - L: Sideways [1][9][10] - PP: Sideways [1][12][13] - PVC: Sideways [1][15][16] - PX: Bullish [1][18][19] - PTA: Bullish [1][21][22] - MEG: Bullish [1][24][25] - Glass: Bearish [2][27][28] - Soda Ash: Bearish [2][30][31] - Caustic Soda: Pullback [2][32][33] - Methanol: Rebound and Short [2] - Urea: Cautiously Long at Low Levels [2] - Asphalt: Bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks rise, OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and the summer consumption peak is approaching, so the price is bullish [1][3][4] - LPG: Oil price rebounds and warehouse receipt pressure decreases, so the short - term trend is bullish [1][6][7] - L: After the holiday, the decline of spot prices slows down. Short - term supply pressure eases, but there is no upward driver in the off - season, so it shows a sideways trend [1][9][10] - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and it is in the domestic demand off - season. After continuous decline, it oscillates, and there is still a risk of further decline in the medium term [1][12][13] - PVC: Supply increases, demand is weak in both domestic and foreign markets, and there are multiple negative factors, so the price still has a risk of further decline [1][15][16] - PX: Profit improves, device load increases, and both supply and demand increase. It follows cost fluctuations and is bullish [1][18][19] - PTA: Although there is a plan for new capacity in June, downstream demand is relatively good and inventory is decreasing. It is bullish in the short term, but there are concerns about the weakening of fundamentals [1][21][22] - MEG: Device maintenance increases, arrival volume is low, and supply pressure eases. Demand is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing, so it is bullish in the short term [1][24][25] - Glass: Macro risks reduce risk preference, and demand in the medium term shrinks. In the short - term off - season, the spot market is weak, and the price is bearish [2][27][28] - Soda Ash: Supply pressure increases, demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. The cost center moves down, so the price is bearish [2][30][31] - Caustic Soda: Supply increases slightly, and the price corrects within a range [2][32][33] - Methanol: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. It may rebound with the oil price, but there are short - selling opportunities [2] - Urea: Supply pressure remains, but there are some positive factors such as the peak fertilizer - using period and the India tender. It has a "ceiling and floor" trend [2] - Asphalt: Driven by the cost of rising oil prices, it is bullish in the short term [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 2.85% and Brent up 2.95%. SC had no quote during the Dragon Boat Festival [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ production increase in July meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks rise due to the Ukraine - Russia conflict. Global oil demand is expected to increase slightly, and US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors such as trade wars and new energy, supply is in excess, and the price fluctuates between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors, and SC is expected to be in the range of [465 - 485] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 30, the PG main contract closed at 4036 yuan/ton, down 1.68% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil increased during the holidays, and the fundamentals of LPG improved. Downstream PDH operating rate increased, and port inventory decreased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and LPG is over - valued, so it is bearish. After the holiday, it may gap up. Temporarily wait and see, and go short at high levels after risk release. PG is expected to be in the range of [4080 - 4150] [8]. L - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the decline of spot prices slowed down, and the North China basis was 90 (up 55 month - on - month) [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: After the holiday, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, but demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 30 - 80 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term supply pressure eases, but there is no upward driver. The short - term decline space is limited, but there is a risk of further decline in the medium term. Go short on rebounds. L is expected to be in the range of [6900 - 7050] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the East China drawstring basis was 180 (up 38 month - on - month) [13]. - **Basic Logic**: In June, new capacity is concentrated, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to be weak and sideways, with a possible buffer increase at the beginning of the month [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is high pressure from new device production, and it is in the domestic demand off - season. After continuous decline, it oscillates, and there is still a risk of further decline in the medium term. Go short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [6800 - 6950] [13]. PVC - **Market Review**: The Changzhou basis was - 84 (up 10 month - on - month), and warehouse receipts continued to decline [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Maintenance decreases, supply increases, and demand is weak both at home and abroad. The cost is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to cost collapse, device production expectations, and export uncertainties, the price still has a risk of further decline. Go short on rebounds. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4850] [16]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 6900 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6618 yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profit improves, device load increases, and both supply and demand increase. The inventory decreased in April but is still high. In May, the fundamentals continued to improve, and it is bullish [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6650 - 6800] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 4940 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Although there are many device maintenance and a plan for new capacity in June, the demand from downstream polyester is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing. However, there are concerns about the weakening of fundamentals [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4730 - 4830]. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. MEG - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 4488 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4349 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance increases, arrival volume is low, and supply pressure eases. Demand from downstream polyester is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4350 - 4430]. Continue to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low levels [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes were lowered, the futures price broke through support, the basis fluctuated slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro risks reduce risk preference, and the decline in real - estate completion has expanded, so the medium - term demand for glass shrinks. In the short - term off - season, enterprises and traders reduce prices to clear inventory, and the cost center moves down [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [970 - 1000], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was lowered, the futures price was weak, the basis was low, the number of warehouse receipts increased, and the number of forecasts decreased [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Demand is insufficient due to the weak glass market and the end of the photovoltaic installation peak. Inventory is high, and the cost center moves down [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1180 - 1210], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda was stable, the futures price rose at a low level, the basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases slightly as the capacity utilization rate rises. The profit of the alumina industry improves, and the inventory of caustic soda decreases [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price corrects within a range, and SA is expected to be in the range of [2400 - 2450] [2][33]. Methanol - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. It may rebound with the oil price, but there are short - selling opportunities. MA is expected to be in the range of [2220 - 2280] [2]. Urea - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply pressure remains, but there are positive factors such as the peak fertilizer - using period in July and the India tender. It has a "ceiling and floor" trend, and a strategy of going long at low levels and shorting at high levels can be adopted. UR is expected to be in the range of [1780 - 1820] [2]. Asphalt - **Strategy Recommendation**: Driven by the cost of rising oil prices, it is bullish in the short term. BU is expected to be in the range of [3500 - 3560] [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation and weakening, and an intraday outlook of oscillation and strengthening [1][5]. - Due to OPEC+ accelerating production increase in June and the steady growth of US shale oil production, the expectation of oil market supply surplus has increased. However, as the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, demand factors may gradually strengthen, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite. The domestic crude oil futures price rose 1.92% to 482.5 yuan/barrel on Tuesday night, and the 2507 contract is expected to maintain an oscillation and strengthening trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - period Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation and weakening [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation and strengthening [1][5]. 3.2 Price Calculation and Fluctuation Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline between 0 - 1% is oscillation and weakening, an increase between 0 - 1% is oscillation and strengthening, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - Oscillation and strengthening/weakening are only applicable to intraday views, not for short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.3 Market Driving Logic - Supply side: OPEC+ is accelerating production increase in June, and US shale oil production is growing steadily, increasing the expectation of oil market supply surplus [5]. - Demand side: As the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, demand factors may strengthen, providing support for crude oil futures prices [5]. - Macro factor: The progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a 1.92% increase in domestic crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term view of crude oil 2507 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory and weakening, and the intraday view is oscillatory and strengthening. It is expected to run strongly [1][5]. - The supply glut expectation of the oil market has increased due to OPEC+ accelerating production increase in June and the steady growth of US shale oil production. But as the bearish sentiment is digested, approaching the peak consumption season in mid - May, the demand factor may strengthen steadily, which will support the crude oil futures price. With the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the market risk appetite is boosted, and the domestic crude oil futures price rose 1.44% to 472.3 yuan/barrel on the night session of Monday. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract will maintain an oscillatory and strengthening trend on Tuesday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For crude oil 2507, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory and weakening, the intraday is oscillatory and strengthening, with a reference view of strong operation. The core logic is the improvement of macro - sentiment [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory and strengthening, the medium - term view is oscillatory and weakening, with a reference view of strong operation. The core logic is the supply glut expectation caused by production increase and the potential demand boost in the peak consumption season, along with the improvement of market risk appetite [5].