Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and the intraday trend being volatile and bullish. The main reasons are the enhanced geopolitical risks and the small rebound in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on the night of last Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed down 1.59% to 486.8 yuan/barrel, and it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price will maintain a volatile and bullish trend on Monday [5]. 3.2 Market Fundamentals - In August, the average OPEC+ crude oil production was 4.24 billion barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 509,000 barrels per day. Since the production increase started in April, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased production by 1.48 million barrels per day, with the largest increase coming from Saudi Arabia and other core Middle Eastern oil - producing countries [5]. 3.3 Geopolitical Factors - A recent drone attack by Ukraine on an important crude oil export hub in Russia's Baltic Sea, which loads about 330,000 barrels of diesel - type fuel and 1.15 million barrels of crude oil per day, has enhanced geopolitical risks and led to a small rebound in crude oil prices [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillatory strength. The main reason is the intensification of Middle East geopolitical risks [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory strength, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract rose 1.10% to 488.9 yuan/barrel in the night session on Monday. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory strong trend on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - Recently, Middle East geopolitical risks have re - emerged. On Monday afternoon, there were reports that the Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked an Israeli oil tanker as retaliation for the Israeli air strikes on Yemeni Houthi officials. The Yemeni Houthi rebels also emphasized that they would escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel in the future, which increased the expectation of Middle East geopolitical conflict risks and led to a recovery in crude oil premiums [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and oscillating trend. Despite the expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the contract showed a moderately strong performance in the night session on Friday, and is likely to continue this trend on Monday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - based Views - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate with a moderately strong bias [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year as demand growth is slow and supply is surging, even with OPEC+ increasing production. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories are expected to accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5]. - With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium is receding. As the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rises, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 showed a moderately strong and oscillating trend in the night session on Friday, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.39% to 492.9 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a bullish bias" respectively, and it is expected to run with a bullish bias [1]. - After the release of the previous bearish sentiment, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract stopped falling and stabilized on the night session of Monday this week. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Time - cycle Explanation**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. The distinction of "oscillation with a bullish/ bearish bias" only applies to the intraday view [1][4]. - **Price Calculation Rule**: For varieties with night sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - **Fluctuation Classification**: A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is "oscillation with a bearish bias", an increase of 0 - 1% is "oscillation with a bullish bias", and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - **Driving Logic of Crude Oil Price**: The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium has been given back [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Movement and View - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.95% to 490.5 yuan/barrel on Thursday night, but it is expected to lack the momentum to continue rising on Friday and may maintain a weakly volatile trend [5]. Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an energy outlook report stating that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, with OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5].