投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-21 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利空因素压制，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期 OPEC 最新季度报告把三季度全球油市从"供不应求"直接翻转为"日过剩 50 万桶"， 供应宽松预期放大。不过随着地缘因素凸显以后，在乐观 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures price is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillatory trend, and an intraday strong trend [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1] - The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract rebounded slightly on the night of last Friday, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend on Monday [5] Driving Logic - OPEC's latest quarterly report changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5] - With the prominence of geopolitical factors and the boost of optimistic funds, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and stable trend [5] - The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is in a game with geopolitical sentiment [5]