农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 第一部分橡胶品种观点总结 . | | --- | | 第二部分期货市场行情回顾 | | 一、期货行情回顾 | | 二、期货市场仓单情况 | | 第三部分现货市场走势 | | 第四部分基差价差情况 | | 第五部分月间价差情况- | | 第六部分产业供需库存情况 . | | 第七部分期权相关数据 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月26日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】周四，橡胶期价冲高后多头获利了解期价出现跳水， 本周2609合约涨幅开始大于近月，现货端泰国中央市场胶水报价6 7.3泰铢/kg，环比+0.3泰铢/kg；胶杯报价58.8泰铢/kg，环比 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical sentiments. For the oil market, the short - term fundamentals are weakening while the mid - term remains loosely pessimistic, but the geopolitical premium from Iran supports the strong short - term trend. The chemical industry is running strongly under the influence of sector sentiment, crude oil cost support, and capital inflows, and the end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations decline and demand weakens, EIA weekly inventory accumulates significantly for two consecutive weeks, short - term fundamentals weaken, and mid - term fundamentals are loosely pessimistic. The short - term trading logic shifts to the Iranian geopolitical premium, and the increased US military deployment in the Middle East in the past week supports the strong short - term trend. The geopolitical uncertainty in Iran is high. Possible future scenarios include diplomatic negotiation restart under military pressure, a controllable situation after a US air strike and an Iranian counter - strike, and a low - probability scenario of the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [2][3][4]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, and the short - term structure turns bullish, with the short - term support at 448. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions in the hourly cycle and then wait and see [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors lead to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant profit expansion, there is pressure for maintenance devices to resume and increase production in the mid - term. The continuation of the short - term rise depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction in positions at high levels [7]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today and closed with a long upper shadow, with the short - term (hourly) support at 7300. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [7]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space for pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the profit expansion of styrene and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The continuation of the short - term rise depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction in positions at high levels [10]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term (hourly) support at 5930. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the natural rubber's own fundamentals. The rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase in synthetic rubber prices and follows the passive movement of synthetic rubber [12]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 15780. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic butadiene production at the raw material end remains at a high level compared to the same period. The demand side is also stable, and the domestic fundamentals change little. However, the cold wave in Europe and the US pushes up overseas oil and gas prices and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices lead to a contraction in overseas butadiene supply, pushing up international butadiene prices. Short - term cost push and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week drive the short - term strength of synthetic rubber [15]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position reduction today, with the short - term support at 12000. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [15]. (6) PX - Logic: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the mid - term before the new production capacity comes online in the third quarter, but the market started trading in advance in December. Although there is a negative feedback logic from the decline in textile polyester in the short - term, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the support from the rising crude oil cost due to geopolitical sentiment drive the short - term strength. The end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [18]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 7325. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [18]. (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak. It enters seasonal inventory accumulation due to weak demand in the off - season, and there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction of downstream polyester production. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the support from the rising crude oil cost due to geopolitical sentiment drive the short - term strength. The end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [21]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 5320. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [21]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain remain weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive weak. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support from the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [24]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, with the short - term support at 6615. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The port starts seasonal inventory reduction, but the extremely high inventory level compared to the same period and the negative feedback from the early shutdown and load reduction of MTO devices make the fundamentals weak. However, the recent rise in Iranian geopolitical sentiment and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week drive the short - term strength of methanol [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, with the short - term support at 2255. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [26]. (10) PVC - Logic: High production, high inventory, and weak demand remain. It is affected by the chemical sector sentiment in the short - term, but the upward pressure is still huge [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The domestic fundamentals remain weak. There is seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, the supply operation is at a high level, and there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction of polyester demand. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 3825. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain remain weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive weak. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support from the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position reduction today, with the short - term pressure at 6815. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash remain high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, and the oversupply pattern continues. Although the soda ash production decreased slightly this week, it is still at the highest level compared to the same period and month - on - month, and the pressure of new production capacity release remains high. The demand side shows a small increase in the daily melting of float glass at a low level, and the daily melting of photovoltaic glass remains at the median of the same period in history. The total demand is still weak. The soda ash inventory decreased slightly due to the pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, but the total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared to the same period. Without unexpected policies, the far - month premium of soda ash is expected to be repaired downward month by month, and the 05 contract should maintain a short - selling idea [35]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with position reduction today and tested the short - term pressure at 1215, and the pressure level is still limited. The strategy is to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on the reversal in the hourly cycle [35]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda remains in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak alumina demand expectation). With sufficient comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues and it is difficult to reverse [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with position reduction today, with the short - term pressure at 2000. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns bullish [38].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall reference view is bullish operation. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment has warmed up, and crude oil is oscillating strongly [1]. - Due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data in the US, the macro sentiment has weakened. The latest quarterly report of OPEC has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. As the market is worried about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium in the oil market has retreated. On Thursday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend with a slight increase in prices, and it is expected that they may maintain a bullish trend on Friday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Category Price and Market Performance - For domestic crude oil futures, on Thursday night, they maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend with a slight increase in prices [5]. Driving Factors - Macro factor: The significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data in the US has led to a weakening of macro sentiment [5]. - Supply - demand factor: OPEC's latest quarterly report has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", increasing the expectation of loose supply [5]. - Geopolitical factor: The market's worry about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has led to the retreat of the geopolitical premium in the oil market [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of "oscillation", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and an intraday view of "stronger". The reference view is "stronger operation"[1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle and View - Short - term (within one week): The crude oil 2601 contract shows an oscillatory trend[1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): It is in an oscillatory state[1] - Intraday: It is expected to be stronger[1] 3.2 Core Logic - The macro sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data released by the US last weekend[5] - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply - demand deficit" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply[5] - The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. The market's concern that the Russia - Ukraine conflict may reach a ceasefire agreement has led to the retracement of the geopolitical premium in the oil market[5] - The domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly rising. It is expected to maintain a stronger trend on Thursday[5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation [1] Group 2: Core View - Due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data released by the US last weekend, the macro sentiment has weakened. The latest quarterly report of OPEC has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is now in a game with geopolitical sentiment. Due to the continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, oil prices are recovering. On Monday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained a volatile and stable trend with a slight rebound. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a bullish trend on Tuesday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle View - For crude oil 2601, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation. The core logic is that bullish factors support the crude oil to be volatile and bullish [1] Price -行情 Driving Logic - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is bullish, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is bullish operation. The core logic involves macro sentiment weakening, supply - demand structure changes, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may be bullish on Tuesday [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall expectation of weak operation [1][5]. - The imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market, where supply is in excess, is in a game with geopolitical sentiment. After digesting the positive factors of the rebound in European diesel prices, the oil market is facing renewed pressure from oversupply [5]. - It is expected that domestic crude oil futures on Thursday may maintain a weak trend [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Price and Market Conditions - For crude oil 2601, the short - term is weak, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly closing lower [5]. Driving Logic - OPEC's latest quarterly report changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5]. - With the prominence of geopolitical factors, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and stabilizing trend under the boost of optimistic funds [5]. - After digesting the positive factors of the rebound in European diesel prices, the oil market is facing renewed pressure from oversupply [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak - bias, medium - term oscillation, and intraday strong - bias [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak - bias, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is strong - bias, with a reference view of strong operation [1] - The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend on Tuesday night, with a slight rebound in the futures price, and is expected to maintain a strong trend on Wednesday [5] Driving Logic - The latest quarterly report of OPEC turned the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5] - After the geopolitical factors became prominent, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillating and stable trend under the boost of optimistic funds [5] - The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. Benefiting from the sharp rise in European diesel prices, the demand factor is prominent, which drives the intraday strength of crude oil [5] Definition of Fluctuation - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price, and the end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the increase or decrease [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is weak - bias, an increase of 0 - 1% is strong - bias, and an increase greater than 1% is strong [3] - The strong - bias/weak - bias only applies to the intraday view, and there is no distinction for the short - term and medium - term views [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend on Tuesday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 品种晨会纪要 - For the crude oil 2601 contract, the short - term outlook is weak, the medium - term outlook is volatile, and the intraday outlook is strong. The reference view is a strong operation, supported by bullish factors [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 - The latest quarterly report of OPEC turned the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. However, with the prominence of geopolitical factors, the crude oil futures price showed a volatile and stable trend under the boost of optimistic funds. The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is in a game with geopolitical sentiment. The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile and stable trend on Monday night, with a slight rebound in the futures price [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures price is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillatory trend, and an intraday strong trend [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1] - The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract rebounded slightly on the night of last Friday, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend on Monday [5] Driving Logic - OPEC's latest quarterly report changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5] - With the prominence of geopolitical factors and the boost of optimistic funds, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and stable trend [5] - The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is in a game with geopolitical sentiment [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]