投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-25 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种晨会纪要 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于上周末美国公布的 9 月非农就业数据显著差于预期，导致宏观情绪转弱。近期 OPEC 最新季度报告把三季度全球油市从"供不应求"直接翻转为"日过剩 50 万桶"，供应宽松预期放大。 目前油市偏弱的供 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall expectation of weak operation [1][5]. - The imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market, where supply is in excess, is in a game with geopolitical sentiment. After digesting the positive factors of the rebound in European diesel prices, the oil market is facing renewed pressure from oversupply [5]. - It is expected that domestic crude oil futures on Thursday may maintain a weak trend [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Price and Market Conditions - For crude oil 2601, the short - term is weak, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly closing lower [5]. Driving Logic - OPEC's latest quarterly report changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5]. - With the prominence of geopolitical factors, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and stabilizing trend under the boost of optimistic funds [5]. - After digesting the positive factors of the rebound in European diesel prices, the oil market is facing renewed pressure from oversupply [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 需求因子提振，原油震荡偏强 | 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-19 备注： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期 OPEC 最新季度报告把三季度全球油市从"供不应求"直接翻转为"日过剩 50 万桶"， 供应宽松预期放大。不过随着地缘因素凸显以后，在乐观资金助推下，原油期货价格呈现震荡企稳 的走势。目前油市偏 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend on Tuesday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 品种晨会纪要 - For the crude oil 2601 contract, the short - term outlook is weak, the medium - term outlook is volatile, and the intraday outlook is strong. The reference view is a strong operation, supported by bullish factors [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 - The latest quarterly report of OPEC turned the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. However, with the prominence of geopolitical factors, the crude oil futures price showed a volatile and stable trend under the boost of optimistic funds. The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is in a game with geopolitical sentiment. The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile and stable trend on Monday night, with a slight rebound in the futures price [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures price is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillatory trend, and an intraday strong trend [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1] - The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract rebounded slightly on the night of last Friday, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend on Monday [5] Driving Logic - OPEC's latest quarterly report changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5] - With the prominence of geopolitical factors and the boost of optimistic funds, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and stable trend [5] - The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is in a game with geopolitical sentiment [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the energy and chemical sector, analyzing the market conditions of various products including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others [1][2][3] - Geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in crude oil prices, but the performance of energy and chemical products has deviated from crude oil [1][3] - The mid - term and short - term structures and trading strategies for each product are provided [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - Geopolitical factors, especially the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, are key factors affecting the short - term crude oil market, while the mid - term supply surplus pressure from OPEC+ remains [3][4] - For most products, the mid - term outlook is bearish due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and raw material cost changes [2][4][7] Group 4: Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: The mid - term supply surplus is strong due to OPEC+ production increase, but short - term prices are boosted by geopolitical and macro factors. Focus on the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [4] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Support at 485. Strategy: Wait for the short - term support to break [4] Benzene (Styrene) - Logic: Cost - side pressure from high port inventories of pure benzene and expected supply increase; supply is high and demand is weak. Mid - term bearish [7] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Look for short - selling opportunities after the 7335 support breaks on the 15 - minute cycle [7] Rubber - Logic: Supply increase from the main producing areas and weak terminal demand. Mid - term bearish [10] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Short - selling opportunity at the close of the first K - line in the afternoon [10] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Supply pressure from butadiene production increase and weak demand due to tire inventory. Mid - term bearish [14] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11470 [14] PX - Logic: Short - term supply - demand is strong due to restart of devices and upcoming maintenance. Focus on crude oil cost [18] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [18] PTA - Logic: Supply increases as maintenance devices restart, and demand is weak. Short - term no inventory pressure but the situation has weakened. Focus on crude oil [20] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 4720 [20] PP - Logic: Weak demand in the off - season and expected supply increase from new device production. Focus on crude oil cost [23] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6980 [23] Methanol - Logic: High domestic production and import lead to inventory accumulation. Mid - term pressure is large [24] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Wait for the support at 2265 to break for short - selling [24] PVC - Logic: Weak downstream demand in the real - estate downturn and weak export. Bearish fundamentals [27] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 4850 [27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply tightens due to domestic device maintenance and reduced imports, and short - term demand is okay. Short - term support exists [32] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4300 [32] Plastic - Logic: Short - term low production due to device maintenance, but large supply increase expected in the future. Mid - term bearish [33] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Wait for the support at 7085 to break for short - selling [33]