1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report suggests a "wait - and - see" approach for the container shipping index (European routes) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the container shipping index (European routes) has seen amplified fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances. The impact of geopolitical events on the spot market of container shipping European routes is divided into the emotional and supply - demand aspects. The emotional aspect leads to a strong sentiment among liner companies to increase freight rates in the short term. The supply - demand impact is mainly on the capacity side, with a long transmission path. The key is to observe the duration of the conflict and liner companies' capacity adjustment actions. If the situation cools down within 1 - 2 weeks (low probability currently), the global container shipping geopolitical premium is expected to decline from its peak, and the European routes will return to being dominated by their own supply - demand pricing. If the situation drags on for weeks to months, the operational risks of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el - Mandeb will continue to be threatened, and adjustments to the operational plans of the Middle East and Red Sea routes will be crucial, affecting the global capacity tightness [9]. - From the perspective of the European routes' own supply - demand: On the demand side, there was no large - scale missed loading in the second week of March. The loading situation after the rate increase in the third week will be clearer next week. In the long - term, if oil prices soar and remain high, potential downside risks may come from macro - negative feedback [10]. - On the supply side, in the second half of March, due to the short - term suspension of Middle East routes, COSCO Shipping added its CSCL ATLANTIC OCEAN (19,000 TEU) from the Middle East MEX route as an extra ship to the Northwest European AEU3 route, with a departure date in the fourth week of March. The average weekly capacity in the second half of March is 327,000 TEU, a 27% increase from the first half of 258,000 TEU. The static capacity in April is 322,000 TEU/week, with year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of 3%/10%, which is neutral. If the risk of ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz/Bab el - Mandeb remains high, the impact on the European route capacity mainly includes: the change of Middle East/Red Sea routes leads to a tightening of global effective capacity, which may not change the over - capacity pattern in the off - season (September - October) of European routes but may increase the probability of capacity shortages in the peak season (June - August). A possible solution for Middle East - Red Sea trade flows is to go around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, enter Mediterranean hubs, and then transfer by land or sea to Jeddah Port on the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia for re - transfer. The Gemini Alliance launched a new route on March 6. There are potential risks of port congestion in Southeast Asian hub ports such as Singapore and India, and the empty container turnover at Asian departure ports may be affected, indirectly affecting the turnover efficiency of European routes [11]. - On the freight side, in the short term, shipowners are united in pushing up rates in late March, but the capacity is negatively affected by geopolitics (COSCO's extra ship), and the support of the loading rate is weak. In the medium - term, ship companies usually try to increase rates in April. If the war continues and the passage risk in the Strait of Hormuz/Bab el - Mandeb does not cool down, supply - chain chaos may gradually accumulate in April, increasing the probability of a successful rate increase. In addition, rising oil prices drive up the bunker adjustment factor (BAF), which is included in the SCFIS index. The linear conversion relationship is that for every $10 increase in oil prices, the BAF increases by $50 - $100/FEU, corresponding to an increase of 35 - 70 points in the SCFIS index. Overall, the short - term market is greatly affected by geopolitical emotions. The near - month 2604 contract is currently at par with the spot freight rate of around 1800 points after the expected rate increase in the third week of March. Attention should be paid to whether the resumption of work and production in the second half of March supports the rate increase of all ship companies and the follow - up of BAF by other ship companies. The geopolitical premium may rise again, and the trend is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the changes in container shipping Middle East routes caused by geopolitical disturbances, and beware of repeated geopolitical emotions. Strategically, it is advisable to wait and see overall, and consider using positive spreads for short - term trading to deal with geopolitical shocks [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Data - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1,892.2, with a daily decrease of 4.43%, yesterday's trading volume was 85,170, yesterday's open interest was 33,995, and the open interest change was - 2,684. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 2.51, compared with 4.19 the day before [1]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 2,161.4, with a daily increase of 1.40%, yesterday's trading volume was 17,081, yesterday's open interest was 20,319, and the open interest change was 149. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.84, compared with 1.51 the day before [1]. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 2,180.0, with a daily increase of 1.81%, yesterday's trading volume was 2,527, yesterday's open interest was 3,015, and the open interest change was 51. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.84, compared with 1.46 the day before [1]. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1,459.0, with a daily increase of 0.62%, yesterday's trading volume was 6,952, yesterday's open interest was 11,017, and the open interest change was - 391. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.63, compared with 1.08 the day before [1]. 3.2 Freight Rate Index Data - SCFIS: European routes' current value is 1,463.40 points, with a weekly decline of 7.0%; US West routes' current value is 1,045.08 points, with a weekly decline of 6.0% [1]. - SCFI: European routes' current value is $1,452/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 2.3%; US West routes' current value is $1,940/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 4.5% [1]. 3.3 Shipping Schedule and Capacity Data - In March - April, there are 11 blank sailings and 1 extra sailing in March, 1 blank sailing, 3 undetermined sailings, and CMA added an OCR route in April. The undetermined sailings are not included in the capacity statistics. The weekly capacity in March - April has fluctuations. The monthly average weekly capacity in the second half of March is 32.7 million TEU, a 27% increase from the first half. The static capacity in April is 32.2 million TEU/week, with year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of 3%/10% [4][11]. 3.4 Geopolitical News - Mujtaba, the son of Khamenei, was elected the new supreme leader of Iran. Iran claims to have destroyed 4 US "THAAD" system radars and says it has the ability to conduct a high - intensity war for more than half a year. According to Iranian media, an Israeli attack on an Iranian oil depot killed four people. The Iranian foreign minister said they would not consider another temporary cease - fire. The US tried to distort Iran's apology to its neighbors as surrender. Trump said there was no sign that Russia supported Iran. There were protests in the US demanding the government to stop the war. Trump threatened that the new Iranian supreme leader would not stay in power long without his approval. The US cancelled the navigation warning for commercial ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, and Israel resumed limited commercial flights [7][8][12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, rubber futures prices soared and then dropped as long - position holders took profits. The 2609 contract's gain this week was greater than that of the near - term contract. The spot prices of Thai central market glue and cup rubber increased. After the Spring Festival, the chemical and stock markets opened significantly higher, boosting the rubber futures prices. The US economic data showed a slowdown in GDP growth, and inflation data was mixed, leading to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The escalating US - Iran confrontation and the lack of progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations caused a sharp increase in crude oil prices, which in turn drove up synthetic rubber prices. However, attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and China's response to new tariff measures [3]. - The domestic spot market is in a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 667,700 tons, a 10.05% increase from the previous period. The inventory in bonded areas and general trade both increased, and the storage and delivery rates of warehouses also changed [3]. - After the Spring Festival, the sentiment in the commodity market improved. In terms of supply - demand fundamentals, rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the off - season, and raw material prices are firm. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, with weak terminal demand and sufficient supply, resulting in an increase in finished - product inventory. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is expected to gradually improve as production peaks, and the market has reached a consensus on the upward movement of rubber prices [3]. - For rubber trading, long - position holders can take partial profits after the price breaks through. Avoid chasing high prices due to the volatile macro - sentiment. The support and pressure levels for the RU and NR main contracts are provided [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Rubber Variety Viewpoint Summary - For rubber, the recommended strategy is to buy on dips. The main logic is the resonance of macro - sentiment and overseas raw materials. The support range is 16,000 - 16,900, the pressure range is 17,100 - 17,500, and the market is expected to rise in a volatile manner. For 20 - number rubber, the recommended strategy is also to buy on dips. The main logic is that the dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory inflection point, and the Thai glue price is firm, providing strong support. The support range is 13,400 - 13,600, the pressure range is 13,900 - 14,200, and the market is expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. Second Part: Futures Market Review 1. Futures Market Review - The closing prices, daily price changes, daily price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of rubber main - continuous, 20 - number rubber main - continuous, and Singapore TSR20 main - continuous are provided [9]. 2. Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - number rubber is 50,601, with a year - on - year change of 1.21%. The warehouse receipt has rebounded from a low level, and the market's inventory accumulation expectation has resurfaced. The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 114,070, with a year - on - year change of - 41.23%. The warehouse receipt was significantly cancelled today, and the futures inventory has dropped sharply year - on - year, increasing the delivery risk of futures contracts and supporting the RU futures price [14]. Third Part: Spot Market Trends - The spot prices,环比 changes, and year - on - year changes of natural rubber, Yunnan glue, Thai Hat Yai glue, Thai Hat Yai cup rubber, and Thai 20 - number standard rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area are provided [20]. Fourth Part: Basis and Spread Situation - The current values, 环比 changes, and year - on - year changes of the basis of RU and NR main contracts, non - standard basis, cross - variety spread, and spread between light and dark - colored rubbers are provided [25]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For rubber, the 5 - 9 spread is 135, with a 环比 change of 5 and a year - on - year change of 285. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. For 20 - number rubber, the 3 - 4 spread is - 75, with a 环比 change of - 35 and a year - on - year change of - 415. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [27]. Sixth Part: Industry Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation - Not elaborated in the given content Seventh Part: Option - related Data - Not elaborated in the given content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical sentiments. For the oil market, the short - term fundamentals are weakening while the mid - term remains loosely pessimistic, but the geopolitical premium from Iran supports the strong short - term trend. The chemical industry is running strongly under the influence of sector sentiment, crude oil cost support, and capital inflows, and the end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations decline and demand weakens, EIA weekly inventory accumulates significantly for two consecutive weeks, short - term fundamentals weaken, and mid - term fundamentals are loosely pessimistic. The short - term trading logic shifts to the Iranian geopolitical premium, and the increased US military deployment in the Middle East in the past week supports the strong short - term trend. The geopolitical uncertainty in Iran is high. Possible future scenarios include diplomatic negotiation restart under military pressure, a controllable situation after a US air strike and an Iranian counter - strike, and a low - probability scenario of the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [2][3][4]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, and the short - term structure turns bullish, with the short - term support at 448. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions in the hourly cycle and then wait and see [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors lead to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant profit expansion, there is pressure for maintenance devices to resume and increase production in the mid - term. The continuation of the short - term rise depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction in positions at high levels [7]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today and closed with a long upper shadow, with the short - term (hourly) support at 7300. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [7]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space for pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the profit expansion of styrene and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The continuation of the short - term rise depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction in positions at high levels [10]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term (hourly) support at 5930. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the natural rubber's own fundamentals. The rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase in synthetic rubber prices and follows the passive movement of synthetic rubber [12]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 15780. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic butadiene production at the raw material end remains at a high level compared to the same period. The demand side is also stable, and the domestic fundamentals change little. However, the cold wave in Europe and the US pushes up overseas oil and gas prices and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices lead to a contraction in overseas butadiene supply, pushing up international butadiene prices. Short - term cost push and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week drive the short - term strength of synthetic rubber [15]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position reduction today, with the short - term support at 12000. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [15]. (6) PX - Logic: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the mid - term before the new production capacity comes online in the third quarter, but the market started trading in advance in December. Although there is a negative feedback logic from the decline in textile polyester in the short - term, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the support from the rising crude oil cost due to geopolitical sentiment drive the short - term strength. The end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [18]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 7325. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [18]. (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak. It enters seasonal inventory accumulation due to weak demand in the off - season, and there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction of downstream polyester production. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the support from the rising crude oil cost due to geopolitical sentiment drive the short - term strength. The end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [21]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 5320. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [21]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain remain weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive weak. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support from the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [24]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, with the short - term support at 6615. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The port starts seasonal inventory reduction, but the extremely high inventory level compared to the same period and the negative feedback from the early shutdown and load reduction of MTO devices make the fundamentals weak. However, the recent rise in Iranian geopolitical sentiment and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week drive the short - term strength of methanol [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, with the short - term support at 2255. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [26]. (10) PVC - Logic: High production, high inventory, and weak demand remain. It is affected by the chemical sector sentiment in the short - term, but the upward pressure is still huge [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The domestic fundamentals remain weak. There is seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, the supply operation is at a high level, and there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction of polyester demand. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 3825. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain remain weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive weak. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support from the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position reduction today, with the short - term pressure at 6815. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash remain high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, and the oversupply pattern continues. Although the soda ash production decreased slightly this week, it is still at the highest level compared to the same period and month - on - month, and the pressure of new production capacity release remains high. The demand side shows a small increase in the daily melting of float glass at a low level, and the daily melting of photovoltaic glass remains at the median of the same period in history. The total demand is still weak. The soda ash inventory decreased slightly due to the pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, but the total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared to the same period. Without unexpected policies, the far - month premium of soda ash is expected to be repaired downward month by month, and the 05 contract should maintain a short - selling idea [35]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with position reduction today and tested the short - term pressure at 1215, and the pressure level is still limited. The strategy is to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on the reversal in the hourly cycle [35]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda remains in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak alumina demand expectation). With sufficient comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues and it is difficult to reverse [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with position reduction today, with the short - term pressure at 2000. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns bullish [38].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall reference view is bullish operation. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment has warmed up, and crude oil is oscillating strongly [1]. - Due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data in the US, the macro sentiment has weakened. The latest quarterly report of OPEC has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. As the market is worried about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium in the oil market has retreated. On Thursday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend with a slight increase in prices, and it is expected that they may maintain a bullish trend on Friday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Category Price and Market Performance - For domestic crude oil futures, on Thursday night, they maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend with a slight increase in prices [5]. Driving Factors - Macro factor: The significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data in the US has led to a weakening of macro sentiment [5]. - Supply - demand factor: OPEC's latest quarterly report has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", increasing the expectation of loose supply [5]. - Geopolitical factor: The market's worry about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has led to the retreat of the geopolitical premium in the oil market [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of "oscillation", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and an intraday view of "stronger". The reference view is "stronger operation"[1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle and View - Short - term (within one week): The crude oil 2601 contract shows an oscillatory trend[1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): It is in an oscillatory state[1] - Intraday: It is expected to be stronger[1] 3.2 Core Logic - The macro sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data released by the US last weekend[5] - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply - demand deficit" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply[5] - The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. The market's concern that the Russia - Ukraine conflict may reach a ceasefire agreement has led to the retracement of the geopolitical premium in the oil market[5] - The domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly rising. It is expected to maintain a stronger trend on Thursday[5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation [1] Group 2: Core View - Due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data released by the US last weekend, the macro sentiment has weakened. The latest quarterly report of OPEC has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is now in a game with geopolitical sentiment. Due to the continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, oil prices are recovering. On Monday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained a volatile and stable trend with a slight rebound. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a bullish trend on Tuesday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle View - For crude oil 2601, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation. The core logic is that bullish factors support the crude oil to be volatile and bullish [1] Price -行情 Driving Logic - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is bullish, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is bullish operation. The core logic involves macro sentiment weakening, supply - demand structure changes, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may be bullish on Tuesday [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall expectation of weak operation [1][5]. - The imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market, where supply is in excess, is in a game with geopolitical sentiment. After digesting the positive factors of the rebound in European diesel prices, the oil market is facing renewed pressure from oversupply [5]. - It is expected that domestic crude oil futures on Thursday may maintain a weak trend [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Price and Market Conditions - For crude oil 2601, the short - term is weak, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly closing lower [5]. Driving Logic - OPEC's latest quarterly report changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5]. - With the prominence of geopolitical factors, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and stabilizing trend under the boost of optimistic funds [5]. - After digesting the positive factors of the rebound in European diesel prices, the oil market is facing renewed pressure from oversupply [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak - bias, medium - term oscillation, and intraday strong - bias [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak - bias, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is strong - bias, with a reference view of strong operation [1] - The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend on Tuesday night, with a slight rebound in the futures price, and is expected to maintain a strong trend on Wednesday [5] Driving Logic - The latest quarterly report of OPEC turned the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5] - After the geopolitical factors became prominent, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillating and stable trend under the boost of optimistic funds [5] - The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. Benefiting from the sharp rise in European diesel prices, the demand factor is prominent, which drives the intraday strength of crude oil [5] Definition of Fluctuation - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price, and the end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the increase or decrease [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is weak - bias, an increase of 0 - 1% is strong - bias, and an increase greater than 1% is strong [3] - The strong - bias/weak - bias only applies to the intraday view, and there is no distinction for the short - term and medium - term views [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend on Tuesday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 品种晨会纪要 - For the crude oil 2601 contract, the short - term outlook is weak, the medium - term outlook is volatile, and the intraday outlook is strong. The reference view is a strong operation, supported by bullish factors [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 - The latest quarterly report of OPEC turned the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. However, with the prominence of geopolitical factors, the crude oil futures price showed a volatile and stable trend under the boost of optimistic funds. The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is in a game with geopolitical sentiment. The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile and stable trend on Monday night, with a slight rebound in the futures price [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures price is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillatory trend, and an intraday strong trend [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1] - The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract rebounded slightly on the night of last Friday, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend on Monday [5] Driving Logic - OPEC's latest quarterly report changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5] - With the prominence of geopolitical factors and the boost of optimistic funds, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and stable trend [5] - The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is in a game with geopolitical sentiment [5]