投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-08-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡整理 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡整理 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，胶市重新回归由偏弱供需结构主导的行情中。目前东南亚 产区处在割胶旺季，国内产区也持续 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner, with an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.73% to 14,425 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in a relatively high supply pressure. Meanwhile, the domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.39% to 11,450 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, synthetic rubber returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with a short - term and intraday view of weakening oscillations and a mid - term view of strengthening oscillations [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of last Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.35% to 14,245 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Monday [5]. - **Core Logic**: After the Sino - US third - round economic and trade talks in Sweden, the positive factors have been digested, and the bearish sentiment prevails [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of last Friday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly closed lower by 0.96% to 11,365 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Monday [7]. - **Core Logic**: After the Sino - US third - round economic and trade talks in Sweden, the positive factors have been digested, and the bearish sentiment prevails [7]. General Rules - For varieties with night sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% a strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% an increase [3]. - The concepts of strong/weak oscillations only apply to the intraday view, not to the short - term and mid - term views [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both沪胶 2509 and合成胶 2509 are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of "oscillating weakly" and a mid - term view of "oscillating strongly" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - Time period definitions: short - term is within one week, and mid - term is from two weeks to one month. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [1]. - For calculating price changes, for products with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price, and the ending price is the day - trading closing price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise of more than 1% is a rise [2][3]. 3.2沪胶（RU） - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic沪胶 futures 2509 contract closed 1.26% lower at 14,535 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [5]. 3.3合成胶（BR） - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic合成胶 futures 2509 contract closed 0.60% lower at 11,510 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures. It believes that both are likely to run weakly due to prevailing bearish factors [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - Time cycle definitions: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For intraday views, "oscillating strongly/weakly" is defined as a 0 - 1% increase/decrease, a decrease > 1% is a decline, and an increase > 1% is a rise. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [1][3][4]. 3.2 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term view: oscillating; Medium - term view: oscillating strongly; Intraday view: oscillating weakly; Overall reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, with the digestion of bullish factors and dominant bearish sentiment, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 1.30% to 14800 yuan/ton on Wednesday night and may maintain an oscillatingly weak trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term view: oscillating; Medium - term view: oscillating strongly; Intraday view: oscillating weakly; Overall reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, with the digestion of bullish factors and dominant bearish sentiment, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed down 2.11% to 11585 yuan/ton on Wednesday night and may maintain an oscillatingly weak trend on Thursday [1][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Report's Core View - Both沪胶and合成胶are expected to run strongly.沪胶期货2509合约and合成胶期货2509合约are likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend Information - **沪胶（RU）**: The 2509 contract of domestic沪胶期货slightly rose 0.73% to 15,085 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. - **合成胶（BR）**: The domestic合成胶期货slightly rose 0.21% to 11,880 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected that the 2509 contract of合成胶期货will maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [7]. 3.2 Driving Logic - The core driving logic for both沪胶and合成胶is that the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US were held in Sweden this week. After one - and - a - half days of negotiations, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were conducted on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. In any case, the macro - sentiment will improve, creating a bullish atmosphere [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures contracts 2509 are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being strongly volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Movement**: On the night session of last Friday, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed 1.59% lower at 15,210 yuan/ton [5]. - **Driving Logic**: Although the macro - factors have improved with the US - Europe trade agreement and the upcoming China - US economic and trade meeting, the sharp decline of domestic coal futures on the night session of last Friday weakened the bullish atmosphere in the commodity futures market. As a result, the Shanghai rubber futures are expected to be weakly volatile on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Movement**: On the night session of last Friday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract closed 1.87% lower at 12,090 yuan/ton [7]. - **Driving Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the improvement of macro - factors was counteracted by the decline of domestic coal futures, and combined with the weakening of crude oil and Shanghai rubber, the synthetic rubber futures are expected to be weakly volatile on Monday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and intraday views being oscillating and strong, and medium - term views being oscillating [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.30% to 15075 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: After the previous bearish expectations were gradually digested, the Shanghai rubber futures price entered an oscillating recovery trend. The expected reduction in domestic natural rubber production areas due to the typhoon boosted the rubber price. It is expected that on Wednesday, the 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.46% to 12080 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: After the rubber price callback digested bearish factors, combined with the stabilization and rebound of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices, the Shanghai rubber futures continued the upward trend. It is expected that on Wednesday, the 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2509 and synthetic rubber futures 2509 are expected to run strongly on July 19, 2025, with Shanghai rubber showing a short - term upward trend and a mid - term and intraday strong - oscillating trend, while synthetic rubber shows a short - term and intraday strong - oscillating trend and a mid - term oscillating trend [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: The supply side of the rubber market is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, with the growth rate of tire production and sales slowing down, and the terminal demand entering the off - season [5]. - **Driving Factors**: After the previous negative expectations were digested, the meteorological forecast of a typhoon hitting Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula on July 21, 2025, increased the expectation of production reduction, boosting the rubber price. On the night of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed up 2.16% to 14,885 yuan/ton [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on July 19, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up the production and capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber. The downstream demand is weak, with the growth rate of tire production and sales slowing down, and the terminal demand entering the off - season [7]. - **Driving Factors**: After the rubber price correction digested the negative factors, supported by the strength of Shanghai rubber and a bullish atmosphere, on the night of July 18, 2025, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the futures price closing up 1.52% to 11,655 yuan/ton [7]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on July 19, 2025, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.83% to 14,525 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Thursday [5]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed down, and the terminal demand has entered the off - season. After the previous negative expectations were gradually digested, the futures price has entered a volatile recovery trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract's decline slowed down, with the price slightly down 0.13% to 11,405 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Thursday [7]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have slightly increased, driving up the output and capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber. The downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed down, and the terminal demand has entered the off - season. After the negative factors were digested by the price correction, the decline of the futures price has slowed down [7].