Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at Zhujiang Beer marks a critical moment as the company transitions from a focus on high-end product development to addressing its national expansion challenges, particularly in the competitive 8 yuan beer segment [1][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhujiang Beer achieved a revenue of approximately 5.731 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%, with beer sales reaching 143.96 million tons, up 2.62% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 810 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 29.95% [2][3]. - High-end products generated revenue of 3.904 billion yuan, a 13.97% increase, accounting for nearly 70% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 48.6% [4]. Product Strategy - Zhujiang Beer has established a "3+N" product strategy, focusing on high-end brands such as the Xuebao series and the 97 Pure Draft, which has seen remarkable growth since its launch [4][6]. - The 8 yuan price segment has become a battleground for various brands, with Zhujiang Beer positioning its 97 Pure Draft as a key player in this competitive landscape [6][8]. Regional Dependency - Zhujiang Beer heavily relies on the South China market, with 95.81% of its revenue coming from this region, indicating a lack of national market penetration [8][10]. - The gross margin in Guangdong is significantly higher at 47.8%, compared to only 12.06% in markets outside the province, highlighting the disparity in profitability [10][11]. National Expansion Challenges - The company acknowledges its limited brand recognition outside of South China, facing stiff competition from established brands like Qingdao and Yanjing in other regions [11][15]. - Zhujiang Beer’s sales expenses as a percentage of operating costs are lower than competitors, suggesting a need for increased marketing investment to enhance brand presence nationally [15][16]. - The current distribution network is primarily traditional, with nearly 90% of revenue coming from these channels, indicating a need for modernization to adapt to changing consumer behaviors [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10, while the current price is HKD 8.66 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of USD 6.246 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.807 billion for the year 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.0% and 6.3% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 778 million, showing a decrease of 15.2% [2][7]. - The fourth quarter results showed revenue and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.142 billion and USD 228 million respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 11.0% and 7.2% [2][7]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, which is a 7% increase, resulting in a payout ratio of 103.25% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Budweiser APAC's total sales volume decreased by 8.8%, with a significant decline in the Chinese market, where sales volume and price per ton saw year-on-year declines of 11.8% and 1.4% respectively [6][7]. - The company experienced a mixed performance across regions, with the Asia Pacific West region facing challenges while the Asia Pacific East region showed strong growth, particularly in South Korea [6][7]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 50.4%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points [6][7]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2025, the company aims to prioritize market share recovery and has implemented significant management changes to drive this strategy. The new leadership is expected to bring renewed energy to the company's operations [6][7]. - The company plans to enhance its product offerings and increase marketing expenditures, particularly in key regions such as Fujian and Guangdong [6][7]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is adjusted to USD 815 million, with a corresponding PE ratio of 18 times [6][7].