从刚发布的双方财务结果看，携程并没有"跌倒"。 相反，根据携程集团在2025年的财报数据，2025年实现净营收624.09亿元、净利润333.86亿元、经调整EBITDA 188.88亿元，毛利率约80.6%，账上现金 及"现金等价物+受限现金+短期投资+持有至到期存款及理财"等合计1058亿元。 这是一份典型"高毛利、强现金、轻资产"的平台答卷。 但从规则边界看，携程确实栽了跟头。 国家市场监督管理总局于2026年1月14日发布通报，依法对携程集团涉嫌滥用市场支配地位实施垄断行为立案调查；携程随后回应称将积极配合调查、业 务正常运行。 更关键的是，携程在披露2025年业绩时明确： 公司在2026年1月收到调查通知，当前无法预计调查进展与结果。 调查消息披露后，携程港股与美股双双大跌，港股两日累计跌幅超过25%，美股当日收于62.78美元、跌幅17.05%。 "携程若被迫收缩平台规则的'利润杠杆'，谁能吃到溢出的订单？" 直觉指向了美团：美团的流量底盘更大、到店酒旅可与本地生活高频场景交叉转化。 1 携程年度财报拆解 携程如果要被看懂，必须先把利润质量拆开。 平台利润率中枢下移 商家议价权回升 跨平台运营常态 ...

同程旅行数据显示，春节9天长假让"分段式过年"更加火爆，2月18日至19日成为节中出游高峰时段，节 中民航出行热度较去年春节同期提升38%。"先回家团圆，再出发度假"复合型春节催化下，国内酒店节 中入住高峰更加显著。节中2至4天酒店连住订单占据主流，靠近知名景区、热门商圈的酒店最为抢手。 （贾尚志） 越长大，越是怀念弥足珍贵的年味，找个年味浓郁、体验独特的地方过春节，成为众多游客的愿望。同 程旅行数据显示，近两周来，平台上"年味""年俗"等关键词搜索热度环比上涨358%，"到最有年味的地 方过大年"成为一股新风尚。截至2月19日，汕头、福州、潮州、太原、西安、广州、黄山、自贡、开 封、上饶等城市跻身"特色年味游"前十名目的地榜单。 春节"返乡游"和跨省"异地游"双重客流的涌入，使得太原、西安、黄山、开封、上饶等中西部城市旅游 热度高涨。太原以社火巡游、非遗展演等丰富民俗活动成为游客找寻年味的热门去处，春节假期前半 段，太原机场进港机票热度环比上月增长268%。 同程旅行2月19日发布消息，今年是春节申遗成功后第二个"非遗中国年"，汕头、福州、潮州、太原、 西安等一批年俗年味独特、沉浸式体验强的目的地突出重围， ...

Group 1: Travel Trends During Spring Festival - A significant travel boom has been observed during the Spring Festival, with domestic air travel increasing by 38% compared to the previous year [1] - The average hotel price during the festival period rose by over 30%, with some popular tourist cities seeing prices double [1] - The trend of "returning home first, then traveling" has led to a surge in hotel bookings near famous scenic spots and shopping districts [1] Group 2: Popular Destinations and Experiences - Cities like Shantou, Fuzhou, and Taiyuan have emerged as top destinations for unique cultural experiences, with searches for "year flavor" increasing by 358% [2] - The influx of tourists to the Chaoshan region has been notable, with a nearly 10-position rise in ticket demand for flights to Chaoshan Airport compared to last year [5] - Fuzhou's tourism has been boosted by traditional customs and events, with the Sanfang Qixiang area ranking among the top 10 popular scenic spots [6] Group 3: Hotel and Accommodation Insights - The hotel occupancy rates in Hainan during the Spring Festival have significantly exceeded the national average, with a 300% increase in flight demand to Haikou and Sanya [7] - Popular hotel types in Sanya include sea view suites and family-themed rooms, reflecting the preferences of younger travelers [7] - The hotel booking trends indicate a strong demand for family packages and unique accommodations in various regions [6][7] Group 4: International Travel Trends - Short-haul international travel has seen a resurgence, with Southeast Asian cities becoming popular destinations due to favorable visa policies and pleasant weather [10] - The top 10 international travel destinations during the Spring Festival include Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and Singapore, with a significant portion of travelers opting for 4-5 day trips [12] - Travelers are balancing traditional customs with international vacations, often departing shortly after the New Year celebrations [12]

出境游方面，2月15日中国游客飞往全球475个城市，泰国曼谷、中国香港、马来西亚吉隆坡位列热门目 的地前三。受2026年冬奥会带动，飞往意大利的国际机票量同比去年增长近2倍。入境游市场同步升 温，当日使用非中国护照预订国内航班的数量同比增长近两成，澳大利亚、西班牙、法国等国游客预订 量实现2倍以上增长。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 根据公开资料整理，当日酒店入住量最高的城市中，广州、北京、深圳、上海排名前四，其中广州同比 增长30%。昆明、重庆、成都、西安、大理、福州等城市酒店预订量亦进入全国TOP10，昆明、福州同 比增幅均超六成，大理增长53%。从机票数据来看，50岁以上旅客最受欢迎的飞行目的地TOP5分别为 北京、上海、成都、广州、深圳，菏泽-广州、万州-深圳等"反向团圆"航线热度增长显著。 观点网讯：2月16日，去哪儿旅行发布2026年春节假期首日旅游消费数据显示，"反向过年"模式带动一 线城市文旅市场显著升温。2月15日，60岁以上旅客酒店入住量环比前一日大涨60%，与2025年春节假 期首日相比增长54%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Expedia reported quarterly earnings of $3.78 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.46 per share, and showing a significant increase from $2.39 per share a year ago, indicating strong financial performance [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $3.55 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.22% and up from $3.18 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Expedia has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times and has also topped revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance - Expedia shares have declined approximately 17.6% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 1.4% [3] - The stock's immediate price movement will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call [3] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.86 on revenues of $3.28 billion, while for the current fiscal year, it is $18.69 on revenues of $15.62 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Expedia was favorable ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, suggesting expected outperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Commerce industry, to which Expedia belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8]

经济观察网 国家市场监督管理总局于2026年1月14日发布公告，宣布对携程集团有限公司涉嫌滥用市场 支配地位实施垄断行为立案调查。受此消息影响，携程集团-S（09961.HK）股价出现显著下跌。 此次调查并非孤立事件。监管机构在立案前已进行前期核查，并曾于2025年多次就"二选一"、干预定价 等问题约谈涉旅平台。云南省旅游民宿行业协会也在2025年11月公开发文，指控部分OTA平台存在利用 市场支配地位实施不正当竞争的行为。市场分析认为，调查反映了监管重点的演进。有观点指出，当前 监管不仅关注市场份额，更侧重于平台是否存在通过"控价"等行为阻碍价格正常传导、加剧行业"内卷 式"竞争的问题。携程在2025年前三季度净利润达到290亿元的亮眼业绩，与产业链上航空公司、酒店集 团等实体主体的普遍承压形成对比，可能引发了监管对行业利益分配格局的关注。立案调查消息导致市 场对携程可能面临罚款、业务整改等不确定性产生担忧，从而引发股价调整。 行业板块情况 需要注意的是，同期港股市场整体表现疲软，且在线旅游行业面临来自美团、飞猪等平台的竞争压力。 这些因素也可能对股价产生了一定影响。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建 ...

消息面上，花旗表示，展望2026年，该机构认为反垄断调查除可能带来罚款外，亦为国内酒店业务增添 不确定性，但基于其在高价值流量及客户服务方面的优势，相信携程长期的国内市场地位仍将保持稳 固。该行将2026及2027年经调整盈利预测分别下调9%及5%，以反映对国内酒店业务的潜在影响，将携 程(TCOM)美股目标价由86美元下调至82美元。 消息面上，花旗表示，展望2026年，该机构认为反垄断调查除可能带来罚款外，亦为国内酒店业务增添 不确定性，但基于其在高价值流量及客户服务方面的优势，相信携程长期的国内市场地位仍将保持稳 固。该行将2026及2027年经调整盈利预测分别下调9%及5%，以反映对国内酒店业务的潜在影响，将携 程(TCOM)美股目标价由86美元下调至82美元。 金吾财讯 | 携程网(TCOM)盘前跌超4%，截至发稿，报55.26美元。 金吾财讯 | 携程网(TCOM)盘前跌超4%，截至发稿，报55.26美元。 ...

携程被有关部门进行反垄断调查后，在舆论中引起了轩然大波，与此同时"们"也对携程的展开了讨论： 观点一，携程被反垄断调查，市占率过高又是"垄断"的重要标志，要想尽快结束上述现象，那就要拆分携程； 观点二，过去几年酒旅行业的日子并不好过，但携程的利润却节节攀升，要想改变行业的利益分配格局，携程必须要对商家降佣减负，这也 是近年对平台经济的要求。 关于上述观点，我们均持否定态度（后者虽然有一定道理，但距离事实仍有较大偏差），联系到近期有关部门明显提高了对有关企业的约谈 力度（如近期对高德），我们不妨从携程入手来分析此现象，本文核心观点： 其一，携程"罪"不在高市占率，而是"控价"，酒旅行业在此模式中拿不到应得的利润； 作为平台经济典型代表，携程拿到行业70%以上市场份额（包括其产业生态里的同程，去哪儿，途牛等平台），在某种意义上拥有行业的绝对 定价权。 在市场经济下，固然是供需关系决定价格，但在一家强市占率公司的介入下，会非常容易的扭转上述价格走向。 ADR（酒店平均房价）是衡量酒店经营效率的重要指标，计算公式为： ADR=总客房收入/已售客房数量。在社会经济秩序完全恢复的2023年，该指标出现了明显回弹的势头，不 ...

Group 1 - MakeMyTrip Ltd (MMYT.O) maintains an outperform rating with a target price of $85, despite slightly lower than expected revenue in Q3 FY26 due to currency, regulatory, and GST adjustments, while hotel and transportation segments show resilience [1] - iQIYI (IQ.O) holds a buy rating with a stable membership revenue and a revenue of 6.763 billion yuan in Q4 25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, supported by rich content reserves and favorable policies [2] - Netflix (NFLX.O) has a buy rating with a target price of $103, reporting revenue and profit growth in Q4, driven by subscription price increases and advertising growth, with a projected free cash flow of $11 billion by 2026 [4] Group 2 - Horton Homes (DHI.N) maintains a buy rating with a target price of $178, despite a decline in revenue and profit in FY26 Q1, as the company stabilizes sales through incentives and a strong capital structure [5] - Full Truck Alliance (YMM.N) has a buy rating with a target price of $16.1, showing a 31% year-on-year increase in commission revenue from freight transaction services, with a clear shareholder return plan of $400 million by 2026 [6] - Netflix (NFLX.O) also has a buy rating with a target price of $110.82, with Q4 results exceeding expectations and a forecast of advertising revenue doubling in 2026, supported by AI-enhanced content production [7]

Core Viewpoint - The online travel agency (OTA) industry is facing significant scrutiny as Ctrip Group is under investigation for alleged monopolistic practices, which may impact its operations and market dynamics [2] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an investigation into Ctrip Group for suspected abuse of market dominance under the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China [2] - Ctrip has stated that its business operations are normal and that it will cooperate with regulatory authorities to ensure compliance [2] - Ctrip has faced multiple regulatory discussions since 2025, including issues related to "choose one from two" practices and price manipulation [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Ctrip reported a net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24% [3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Ctrip's total revenue reached 47.011 billion RMB, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.013 billion RMB [3] - The accommodation booking segment contributed over 40% of Ctrip's revenue [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The hotel industry in China has approximately 570,000 facilities and 19.27 million rooms, with a chain rate of 26.75% for hotels and 40.09% for rooms, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed countries [3] - The low chain rate suggests many hotels lack strong direct sales capabilities, relying heavily on large OTAs for room distribution, which strengthens the market position of major OTAs [3] Group 4: Pricing and Competition Issues - Some OTAs exert pressure on hotels regarding pricing, promotion, and platform rankings, leading to conflicts where hotels may have to subsidize lower prices while OTAs profit [4][5] - Smaller accommodation providers, such as guesthouses, face challenges without reliance on large OTAs, exacerbating the power imbalance between platforms and merchants [5] - The imbalance in revenue and commission structures has led to dissatisfaction among merchants, particularly in the hospitality sector [5] Group 5: Regulatory Framework - In December 2025, new regulations were issued to govern pricing behaviors on internet platforms, emphasizing that platform operators cannot force merchants to lower prices or impose unfair fees [6] - These regulations reflect a governmental effort to address conflicts between channels and merchants, ensuring fair practices in the OTA industry [6][7] Group 6: Future Considerations - The necessity of OTAs and e-commerce platforms is acknowledged, but there is a call for a balanced approach to commission structures to prevent merchant losses and market shrinkage [7] - The rise of live streaming and fragmented sales channels may divert consumers and merchants from traditional OTAs, prompting a need for these platforms to explore diversified business models [7]