大华继显发布研报称，携程集团-S(09961)2025年第三季度业绩表现胜预期。营收同比增15.5%至184亿 元人民币，符合市场预期。2025年第三季度非公认会计原则净利达192亿元人民币。若剔除来自Make My Trip的170亿元人民币投资收益(属非经常性项目)，非公认会计原则净利同增8%至59亿元人民币，较 市场预期高出4%。报告指，携程预测2025年第四季营收将同比增15至20%至167亿元人民币，符合市场 预期。维持"买入"评级，目标价由725港元轻微上调至727港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，携程集团-S(09961)2025年第三季度业绩表现胜预期。 营收 同比增15.5%至184亿元人民币，符合市场预期。2025年第三季度非公认会计原则净利达192亿元人民 币。若剔除来自Make My Trip的170亿元人民币投资收益(属非经常性项目)，非公认会计原则净利同增 8%至59亿元人民币，较市场预期高出4%。报告指，携程预测2025年第四季营收将同比增15至20%至167 亿元人民币，符合市场预期。维持"买入"评级，目标价由725港元轻微上调至727港元。 ...

携程网(TCOM.US)盘前涨2.88%，报72.93美元。消息面上，2025年第三季度，携程集团净营业收入为 183亿元人民币(约合26亿美元)，同比增长16%，主要得益于越来越强劲的旅游需求；净营业收入环比增 长24%，主要得益于季节性因素。期内归属于股东的净利润为199亿元人民币(约合28亿美元)，而2024年 同期为68亿元人民币，上季度为48亿元人民币，主要由于部分处置某些投资。 绩后，花旗发研报指，携程集团第三季业绩稳健，毛利率81.7%，相较第二季为81%，略高于该行预 期；非通用会计准则(non-GAAP)经营利润率33.4%，高于该行预期的32%。酒店业务表现稳健，主要受 平均每日房价(ADR)复苏所推动。其他收入强劲增长归因于广告业务快速增长，而稳健的经营利润率则 受惠于毛利率好过预期及行政费用减少。该行予美股目标价85美元及"买入"评级。(格隆汇) | TCOM 携程网 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 70.890 4 -1.140 -1.58% | | 收盘价 11/17 16:00 美东 | | 72.930 + 2.040 +2.88% | | 盘前价 11 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's stock experienced a decline of over 6% in early trading, attributed to travel warnings issued by the Chinese government regarding Japan, leading to a significant number of hotel cancellations and customer inquiries [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Ctrip Group's stock price fell by 4.17%, reaching 552.5 HKD, with a trading volume of 1.316 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Travel Warnings and Customer Impact - On November 14, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese consulate in Japan advised citizens to avoid traveling to Japan [1] - Ctrip's customer service reported an increase in hotel order cancellations, with efforts underway to assist customers in processing refunds [1] - Some hotels are accommodating free cancellations, while others require further negotiations [1] Group 3: Business Growth and Profitability - Goldman Sachs noted that Ctrip's outbound travel business is normalizing, with a year-on-year growth of 14-15%, slightly above the company's guidance of 10-20% [1] - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that Ctrip's adjusted profit margin is on a clear upward trend due to economies of scale in R&D and management expenses [1] - Anticipated improvements in profitability are expected as Trip.com enhances its earnings [1]

Group 1: Macau Gaming Industry - The gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, with high-end consumption showing resilience due to supply constraints. Monthly gaming revenue from April to July consistently surpassed expectations, with October's gross gaming revenue reaching 24.1 billion MOP, a year-on-year increase of 16% [4][12] - Visitor numbers in Macau are projected to approach 2019 levels, with total inbound visitors from January to September 2025 reaching 29.67 million, a year-on-year increase of 14%, recovering to 98% of 2019 levels [12][13] - The gaming sector is experiencing upward momentum, with the gross gaming revenue recovering to 88% of 2019 levels in Q3 2025, driven by a 13% year-on-year increase [7][9] - The valuation of gaming companies is currently at low levels, presenting potential investment opportunities [15][18] Group 2: Online Travel Industry - The online travel industry is experiencing stable growth, with domestic residents' travel numbers increasing by 18% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, and travel spending rising by 12% [30][31] - The competitive landscape in the online travel sector remains stable, with high entry barriers due to supply chain and customer service advantages [32][33] - Tongcheng Travel is expected to see gradual improvement in profit margins, with a 14% year-on-year increase in core OTA business revenue in Q2 2025 [41][42] Group 3: Restaurant Industry - The restaurant sector is currently in a recovery phase, with the growth rate of social retail dining revenue lagging behind overall social retail growth [50][51] - The chain rate in China's restaurant services is steadily increasing, projected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% in 2025, although it remains below the global average of 35% [53][54] - Companies like Mixue and Gu Ming are experiencing high growth rates due to rapid store expansion and effective marketing strategies [59][60]

Summary of China Travel & Leisure Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China travel and leisure industry**, particularly the performance of various companies in the sector during **3Q25** [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments General Market Trends - **Weaker Disposable Income**: Disposable income growth slowed to **4.5%** in 3Q25 from **5.1%** in 2Q25, impacting consumption trends which fell to **3.4%** from **5.2%** [2][3]. - **Domestic Air Traffic**: Increased by **3%** year-over-year (yoy) in 3Q25, down from **6%** in 2Q25 [2]. - **Outbound Travel**: Normalized to **15%** yoy growth, significantly lower than **34%** and **24%** in 1Q and 2Q25 respectively, as flight capacity returned to pre-pandemic levels [2]. Company Performance Highlights - **Songcheng**: Reported a **10%** yoy revenue decline due to competition and health issues [3]. - **CTGDF**: Revenue decline narrowed to flat yoy in 3Q25 from **-11%** and **-8%** in previous quarters, with a **14%** increase during the Golden Week holidays [3][6]. - **Jinjiang and BTG**: RevPar improved to declines of **-2%** and **-3%** yoy, respectively, compared to **-5%** and **-6%** in 2Q25 [3][6]. - **Chinese Airlines**: Benefited from lower fuel costs and traffic recovery, with domestic traffic up **13%** and international traffic up **11%** [6]. - **Shiji**: Revenue increased by **7%** yoy, but net loss widened to **Rmb12 million** due to higher impairment losses [6]. Macau Casino Performance - **Macau GGR**: Increased by **13%** yoy in 3Q25, up from **8%** in 2Q25, driven by factors such as the wealth effect from the stock market and reduced diversion of travelers to other destinations [7]. - **Sands China and MGM**: Results exceeded expectations, with Sands China expected to report **US$1.901 billion** and MGM **US$1.091 billion** in revenue for 3Q25 [7][10]. Samsonite Expectations - Expected to report a narrower revenue decline of **-2%** yoy in 3Q25, improved from **-5%** in 2Q25, driven by better performance in the US and Asia [7][10]. Hotel Operators - **H World and Atour**: Both expected to report better-than-expected results due to stabilizing hotel RevPar and robust retail sales growth [7][10]. - **RevPar Forecasts**: H World and Atour projected declines of **-0.4%** and **-3%** yoy, respectively, with revenue growth forecasts of **+7%** and **+35%** yoy [8][10]. OTA Performance - **Trip.com and Tongcheng**: Expected to meet revenue guidance with Trip.com projected to grow **+15%** and Tongcheng **+9%** [9][10]. - **Profit Margins**: Potential for improved profit margins due to favorable revenue mix shifts towards higher-margin businesses [9]. Other Important Insights - **Investor Focus**: Investors are expected to pay close attention to companies' forward guidance during their 3Q25 results to assess the sustainability of the recovery [2][10]. - **Valuation Considerations**: Despite recent performance, share prices of US-listed chain hotels are still trading below mid-cycle valuations, indicating potential for upward earnings revisions [10][11]. Conclusion - The China travel and leisure industry is showing signs of recovery, although challenges remain due to weaker consumer spending and competition. Companies like H World, Atour, and TCOM are positioned well for growth, while Macau casinos are benefiting from a rebound in gaming revenue. Investors should remain cautious but optimistic about the sector's trajectory moving forward.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes Beijing's efforts to support employment and entrepreneurship among college graduates and youth through a comprehensive policy framework [1][2][3] - Beijing plans to enhance support for attracting young talent, particularly in key sectors such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and biomedicine [1][2] - The number of college graduates in China is projected to reach 12.22 million by 2025, marking an increase of 430,000 from 2024, highlighting the growing challenge of youth employment [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the competitive landscape for attracting young talent among cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, indicating a "talent war" [2][3] - Beijing's recent policies reflect a targeted approach to service industry development, particularly in high-tech sectors [2] - Previous initiatives in Beijing included measures to address housing difficulties for graduates, such as free accommodation and rental discounts [3]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Tongcheng Travel (00780) will experience stable growth in core OTA revenue for Q3, with an expected year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Revenue Projections - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, and UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient [1] - The company’s accommodation revenue is projected to grow at a mid-teens level [1] - In the transportation segment, UBS predicts a high single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for Tongcheng in Q3 [1] Target Price Adjustment - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts Tongcheng Travel (00780) to experience stable growth in core OTA revenue for Q3, with an expected year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Revenue Projections - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, but UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient [1] - The company’s accommodation revenue growth is projected to be in the mid-teens percentage range [1] Target Price and Rating - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Transportation Business - In terms of transportation services, UBS predicts a high single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for Tongcheng in Q3 [1]

Summary of Inbound Tourism Growth in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the inbound tourism industry in China, highlighting its potential growth as a significant profit engine within the next three years, driven primarily by online travel agencies (OTAs) and airlines [1][2][10]. Key Insights 1. **Inbound Tourism Growth**: - Inbound tourism is expected to become a major profit driver for China's tourism industry, which is currently dominated by domestic and outbound travel [1][10]. - The share of inbound tourism in China's tourism revenue is currently 11%, projected to increase to 18% within five years [2]. 2. **Macroeconomic Indicators**: - China's service exports grew by 14% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, significantly outpacing the overall export growth of 6% [2]. - Tourism service exports surged by 56%, reaching 150% of pre-pandemic levels [2]. 3. **Regional Growth**: - Non-first-tier cities are becoming increasingly attractive for inbound tourists, with Hangzhou seeing a 23% year-on-year increase in inbound visitors in the first eight months of 2025 [2]. 4. **Policy Impact**: - The introduction of the K1 visa on October 1, 2025, is expected to attract more young talent to China, further boosting the tourism sector [1]. 5. **Profitability Outlook**: - The hotel sector is anticipated to have the highest revenue exposure to inbound tourism, averaging over 20% by 2030 [2]. - OTAs, airlines, and duty-free businesses are expected to see revenue exposure of 5-10% over the next five years [2]. Investment Opportunities 1. **Selected Beneficiary Stocks**: - A list of ten stocks identified as potential beneficiaries of inbound tourism growth includes: - Trip.com (TCOM.O) - Air China (0753.HK) - Shanghai Airport (600009.SS) - China Tourism Group Duty-Free (1880.HK) - H World Group (HTHT.O) - Marriott (MAR.O) - IHG (IHG.L) - Hygeia Healthcare (6078.HK) - CR Mixc (1209.HK) - Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK) [3][11][14]. 2. **Sector Analysis**: - OTAs rank highest in potential profitability due to favorable market conditions and significant synergies with existing operations [10][12]. - Airlines are also positioned well, with new international routes expected to enhance profit margins [12]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - The report emphasizes the importance of pricing power in inbound tourism, particularly for OTAs and airlines, which may achieve higher pricing due to increased demand [2][10]. Additional Considerations - The report notes the potential for upward pressure on profit margins from inbound tourism, driven by higher pricing and synergies with existing domestic and outbound operations [2][12]. - The impact of infrastructure upgrades and clean energy investments on air quality is expected to enhance the attractiveness of China as a leisure travel destination [1][10]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the evolving landscape of China's inbound tourism sector, highlighting key growth drivers, investment opportunities, and potential risks associated with this emerging market.