Group 1: Macro Retail and Service Consumption - Retail data shows that essential goods maintain resilience while optional goods exhibit differentiated performance, with social retail growth slightly slowing down due to high base effects from government subsidies [10][16] - Service retail continues to show strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% from January to November 2025, outpacing overall social retail growth [10][18] - Travel demand is steadily releasing, with domestic tourism numbers reaching 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [18][20] Group 2: E-commerce Sector - E-commerce maintains a steady growth rate, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, surpassing the overall social retail growth [13][25] - The penetration rate of e-commerce continues to rise, reaching 25.9% of total social retail sales by November 2025, an increase of 3.6 percentage points since the beginning of the year [13][25] - The competitive landscape in e-commerce is easing, with platforms like Taobao and JD.com focusing on maintaining stable growth rather than aggressive price competition [28][36] Group 3: Retail Focus on Downstream Markets - The focus is on the resilience of consumption in lower-tier markets, with recommendations for bulk snack retailers and the "锅圈" brand, which excels in the home dining sector [5][31] - The bulk snack market is characterized by low prices and high turnover, effectively meeting consumer demand for snacks [5][31] - "锅圈" is positioned as a leader in the home dining market, leveraging its multi-channel advantages and strong supply chain [5][31] Group 4: Service Sector Recovery - The hotel industry is stabilizing with a recovery in demand, and recommendations include Huazhu Group and Atour Hotel [5][31] - The OTA sector is experiencing stronger leisure demand compared to business travel, with international business continuing to grow rapidly [5][31] - Policies aimed at boosting service consumption are expected to further stimulate demand in the travel and hospitality sectors [23][24] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Didi Chuxing for their strong fundamentals and low valuations [2][3] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the e-commerce and service sectors, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [5][23]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W (03690) experienced a significant stock price increase, rising nearly 7% in early trading, with a current price of 104 HKD and a trading volume of 7.823 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Alibaba Group's CFO Xu Hong announced during the Q3 earnings call that investments in Taobao Flash Sales will peak in the September quarter, indicating a potential "temporary truce" in competitive spending [1] - Meituan plans to hold a board meeting on November 28 to approve quarterly results, with expectations that Meituan's food delivery business losses will peak in the current quarter [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts from CITIC Securities predict that competition in the food delivery sector has eased since Q4, leading to a rationalization of subsidies and a recovery in Meituan's market share in food delivery [1] - Long-term prospects for Meituan's food delivery business overseas are promising, with potential for significant profit growth, which could enhance Meituan's valuation flexibility [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving food delivery market in Dubai, highlighting the challenges and opportunities faced by various platforms, particularly the Chinese platform Keeta, which aims to penetrate this market with a no-commission model and fast service [2][11]. Market Overview - Dubai's food delivery market is characterized by a mix of local and international platforms, with a significant presence of riders from South Asia [3][5]. - The market is still developing, with a high potential for growth due to the local climate and lifestyle, as many residents do not rely on delivery as heavily as in China [9][10]. Platform Dynamics - Keeta, a platform under Meituan, has entered the Dubai market with a no-commission strategy, attracting merchants who previously faced high commission rates from other platforms [6][8]. - The competitive landscape includes platforms like Talabat and COME COME, which have established user bases and cater to specific demographics, such as Chinese cuisine [9][10]. Consumer Behavior - The cost of food delivery in Dubai is relatively high, leading many residents to prefer cooking at home, especially given the high living expenses [4][5]. - Delivery times are comparable to other markets, with users typically receiving their orders within 30 to 40 minutes [5][9]. Growth Projections - The online food delivery market in the UAE is projected to reach $1.87 billion by 2025 and $2.46 billion by 2030, with a user penetration rate of 31.4% by 2025 [9]. Regulatory Environment - The Dubai Consumer Protection and Fair Trade Authority has established guidelines to enhance competition and maintain high standards in the food delivery sector [10]. Strategic Expansion - Keeta's expansion strategy in the Middle East has been cautious, starting from Saudi Arabia and gradually moving into the UAE, with plans to adapt to local market conditions [14][15]. - The platform's success relies on its ability to offer a diverse range of products, reliable delivery services, and competitive pricing [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects Meituan's revenue for Q3 2025 to be 97.8 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 4.5%, while operating profit is projected to be -18.5 billion yuan and adjusted net profit at -15.9 billion yuan, primarily due to intense competition in the food delivery subsidy market [1] Delivery Business - In Q3 2025, Meituan's instant delivery order volume is expected to grow by 17.0% year-over-year, and food delivery order volume is projected to increase by 14.3%, driven by enhanced platform subsidies [2] - However, the intense subsidy competition in Q3 has led to a significant decline in Meituan's user experience (UE), with expectations of UE dropping to -2.8 yuan, compared to 1.48 yuan in Q3 2024 and -0.21 yuan in Q2 2025 [2] - The company anticipates a return to rational operations in Q4, which may alleviate the ongoing subsidy competition [2] Dining and Travel Business - Meituan's dining and travel business revenue is expected to grow by 5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, although there is pressure on offline dining consumption due to increased food delivery subsidies [2] - The operating profit margin (OPM) for the dining segment is projected to reach 27.8%, reflecting a decline of 5.7 and 5.2 percentage points compared to previous quarters, attributed to a higher proportion of revenue from lower-tier cities and increased subsidy investments [2] New Business Initiatives - New business revenue is expected to reach 28.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 17.5%, although the operating loss is projected at 2.4 billion yuan [3] - The company is expanding its Xiaoxiang supermarket brand in response to the instant retail trend, leveraging supply chain and brand advantages for competitive growth [3] - Meituan's international food delivery expansion is progressing steadily, with plans to enter the Brazilian market in Q4, indicating long-term potential for growth [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 376.8 billion, 444.8 billion, and 510.2 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits projected at -7.9 billion, 35.4 billion, and 54.4 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The company maintains its valuation despite rising valuations of comparable companies, emphasizing the unsustainable nature of current subsidy competition [4] - A target price of 136.0 Hong Kong dollars is set for Meituan, with a "buy" rating maintained [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 136.00 [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face significant pressure on revenue growth and profits in Q3 2025 due to intense competition in the food delivery sector, particularly from irrational subsidies [1][2]. - Despite short-term challenges, the report remains optimistic about the company's long-term efficiency advantages and brand strength, anticipating a return to rational operations in Q4 2025 [1][5]. - The company is also making progress in its overseas food delivery business, with plans to expand into the Brazilian market [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For Q3 2025, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 978 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 4.5%, but with an expected operating loss of RMB 18.5 billion and an adjusted net loss of RMB 15.9 billion [1][5]. - The report forecasts revenues of RMB 3,768 billion, RMB 4,448 billion, and RMB 5,102 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB -79 billion, RMB 354 billion, and RMB 544 billion [5][10]. Business Segments Performance - The instant delivery segment is expected to see a year-over-year order volume increase of 17.0% in Q3 2025, driven by increased platform subsidies, although user experience (UE) is projected to decline significantly [2]. - The dine-in segment is anticipated to grow by 5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, but faces pressure from offline dining consumption and increased competition from delivery services [3]. - New business revenue is expected to reach RMB 284 billion in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 17.5%, although it will incur an operating loss of RMB 2.4 billion [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, assigning PE multiples of 7x for the food delivery business and 18x for the dine-in business for 2026, with a target price of HKD 136.00 per share [5][14]. - The company’s estimated PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 13.00, 15.85, and 10.31 respectively [10][24].

Core Viewpoint - Meituan is facing significant challenges in both domestic and international markets, particularly in Brazil, where it is competing against Didi's 99Food in a rapidly growing e-commerce environment [1][4][14] Group 1: Domestic Market Challenges - In Q2 2025, Meituan reported a nearly 90% drop in adjusted net profit, earning 12.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year, attributed to irrational competition [1] - Meituan's market share in the domestic food delivery sector fell from 74% at the beginning of the year to 65% by August [1] - The company increased its sales and marketing expenses by 7.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year due to the fierce competition [1] Group 2: International Expansion and Competition - Meituan is entering the Brazilian market with its new brand Keeta, planning to invest $1 billion over the next five years [4] - The Brazilian market is seen as a fertile ground for food delivery services due to its high urbanization rate (87.6%) and a projected market size of $12 billion [1][5] - Didi's 99Food previously exited Brazil due to iFood's dominance but has re-entered the market, intensifying competition [2][4] Group 3: Legal Disputes - Meituan's Keeta has initiated legal actions against 99Food for trademark infringement and unfair competition practices [3] - The lawsuits include accusations of 99Food's high-priced advertising tactics and exclusive agreements with merchants [3] Group 4: Market Potential and Infrastructure - Brazil's Q-commerce market is projected to reach approximately $1.05 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of about 11.45% [5] - The CEP (courier, express, and parcel) market in Brazil is expected to grow from $5.93 billion in 2025 to $7.77 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 5.56% [5] - Brazil's internet penetration rate is high, with over 90% smartphone ownership, indicating a strong potential for on-demand delivery services [5][6] Group 5: Competitive Strategies - Didi's 99Food has proposed a "fair alternative" plan, including waiving commissions for restaurants for a year and guaranteeing daily income for delivery riders [8] - Meituan's Keeta plans to offer lower rates than iFood and provide incentives for timely deliveries [8] - Both companies are engaging in aggressive spending to capture market share in a highly competitive environment dominated by iFood, which holds over 80% of the market [8][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The Middle East and Brazil exhibit significant population dividends, with the food delivery market size continuing to grow [2][3] - The penetration rate and ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) are driving steady growth in the food delivery market in these regions [2][3] - Keeta's entry into the Middle East and Brazil is supported by favorable policies and a strong local market presence [2][3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Growth in the Middle East and Brazil - The food delivery market in Saudi Arabia is projected to reach 10.78 billion USD in 2024, growing by 17.8% year-on-year, with user numbers reaching 21.2 million, a 15.2% increase [2][31] - The GCC's food delivery market is expected to exceed 16.5 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [2][31] - Brazil's online food delivery market is anticipated to reach 18.6 billion USD in 2024, with a growth rate of 16.9% [2][39] 2. Competitive Landscape in the Middle East and Brazil - In the Middle East, Jahez and HungerStation dominate the Saudi market, holding approximately 70% market share [3][46] - Keeta, a subsidiary of Meituan, entered the Saudi market in 2024 and aims to capture market share through aggressive subsidies and a low commission model [3][4] - In Brazil, iFood leads the market with an 80% share, while Aaiqfome focuses on smaller cities to avoid direct competition [4][56] 3. Keeta's Strategy and Potential for Replication - Keeta's success in Hong Kong is attributed to its localized strategies and technological innovations, which may be replicable in overseas markets [5][6] - The company has implemented a "one billion rewards" subsidy plan to attract price-sensitive users and has optimized its delivery efficiency [5][6] 4. Profitability Potential in Overseas Markets - The report estimates that the overseas profit potential for Keeta in the Middle East and Brazil could exceed 10 billion USD [6][7] - Current profit margins for local platforms in the Middle East suggest a favorable environment for Keeta's expansion [6][7] 5. Policy Support for Market Expansion - Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 emphasizes economic diversification and digital transformation, providing a conducive environment for foreign investment in food delivery services [2][44] - The government is actively promoting digital services through tax incentives and infrastructure investments, which benefit companies like Keeta [2][44]