外卖出海

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美团、滴滴巴西外卖战,未上线先打官司
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-30 03:34
Core Viewpoint - Meituan is facing significant challenges in both domestic and international markets, particularly in Brazil, where it is competing against Didi's 99Food in a rapidly growing e-commerce environment [1][4][14] Group 1: Domestic Market Challenges - In Q2 2025, Meituan reported a nearly 90% drop in adjusted net profit, earning 12.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year, attributed to irrational competition [1] - Meituan's market share in the domestic food delivery sector fell from 74% at the beginning of the year to 65% by August [1] - The company increased its sales and marketing expenses by 7.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year due to the fierce competition [1] Group 2: International Expansion and Competition - Meituan is entering the Brazilian market with its new brand Keeta, planning to invest $1 billion over the next five years [4] - The Brazilian market is seen as a fertile ground for food delivery services due to its high urbanization rate (87.6%) and a projected market size of $12 billion [1][5] - Didi's 99Food previously exited Brazil due to iFood's dominance but has re-entered the market, intensifying competition [2][4] Group 3: Legal Disputes - Meituan's Keeta has initiated legal actions against 99Food for trademark infringement and unfair competition practices [3] - The lawsuits include accusations of 99Food's high-priced advertising tactics and exclusive agreements with merchants [3] Group 4: Market Potential and Infrastructure - Brazil's Q-commerce market is projected to reach approximately $1.05 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of about 11.45% [5] - The CEP (courier, express, and parcel) market in Brazil is expected to grow from $5.93 billion in 2025 to $7.77 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 5.56% [5] - Brazil's internet penetration rate is high, with over 90% smartphone ownership, indicating a strong potential for on-demand delivery services [5][6] Group 5: Competitive Strategies - Didi's 99Food has proposed a "fair alternative" plan, including waiving commissions for restaurants for a year and guaranteeing daily income for delivery riders [8] - Meituan's Keeta plans to offer lower rates than iFood and provide incentives for timely deliveries [8] - Both companies are engaging in aggressive spending to capture market share in a highly competitive environment dominated by iFood, which holds over 80% of the market [8][12]
商业贸易行业研究:外卖出海空间广阔,Keeta出海掘金进行时
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-09 04:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The Middle East and Brazil exhibit significant population dividends, with the food delivery market size continuing to grow [2][3] - The penetration rate and ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) are driving steady growth in the food delivery market in these regions [2][3] - Keeta's entry into the Middle East and Brazil is supported by favorable policies and a strong local market presence [2][3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Growth in the Middle East and Brazil - The food delivery market in Saudi Arabia is projected to reach 10.78 billion USD in 2024, growing by 17.8% year-on-year, with user numbers reaching 21.2 million, a 15.2% increase [2][31] - The GCC's food delivery market is expected to exceed 16.5 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [2][31] - Brazil's online food delivery market is anticipated to reach 18.6 billion USD in 2024, with a growth rate of 16.9% [2][39] 2. Competitive Landscape in the Middle East and Brazil - In the Middle East, Jahez and HungerStation dominate the Saudi market, holding approximately 70% market share [3][46] - Keeta, a subsidiary of Meituan, entered the Saudi market in 2024 and aims to capture market share through aggressive subsidies and a low commission model [3][4] - In Brazil, iFood leads the market with an 80% share, while Aaiqfome focuses on smaller cities to avoid direct competition [4][56] 3. Keeta's Strategy and Potential for Replication - Keeta's success in Hong Kong is attributed to its localized strategies and technological innovations, which may be replicable in overseas markets [5][6] - The company has implemented a "one billion rewards" subsidy plan to attract price-sensitive users and has optimized its delivery efficiency [5][6] 4. Profitability Potential in Overseas Markets - The report estimates that the overseas profit potential for Keeta in the Middle East and Brazil could exceed 10 billion USD [6][7] - Current profit margins for local platforms in the Middle East suggest a favorable environment for Keeta's expansion [6][7] 5. Policy Support for Market Expansion - Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 emphasizes economic diversification and digital transformation, providing a conducive environment for foreign investment in food delivery services [2][44] - The government is actively promoting digital services through tax incentives and infrastructure investments, which benefit companies like Keeta [2][44]