10月13日，2025年诺贝尔经济学奖得主揭晓。瑞典皇家科学院决定将2025年度诺贝尔经济学奖授予乔尔·莫基尔、菲利普·阿吉翁、彼得·豪伊 特，以表彰他们"对创新驱动型经济增长的阐释"。 文｜[法]菲利普·阿吉翁赛利娜·安托南西蒙·比内尔 2025年诺贝尔经济学奖得主菲利普·阿吉翁在《创造性破坏的力量》书中，运用熊彼特增长范式解析了当下经济中的重大谜题，探寻经济发展 的动力，强调了创新的核心作用。面对技术革命，我们应该担忧还是期盼？一方面，我们或许感到害怕，因为技术革命会加快工作的自动化， 用机器取代人力来完成任务；另一方面，我们则会持欢迎态度，因为它们会催生一系列次级创新，影响经济中的所有部门，促进增长。 技术革命源于能产生某种"通用技术"的根本性创新，这种技术将改变整个经济的面貌。通用技术有三个基本特征：第一，它们会催生大量的次 级创新浪潮，分别对应上述通用技术在经济生活中特定部门的应用；第二，这些技术会逐渐得到改进，使用户成本随时间下降；第三，这些技 术将无处不在，扩散到经济生活中的所有部门。下面我们来分析以上几个特征如何帮助解释通用技术背后的创新发生时间与经济增长显著加速 时间之间的延迟现象。 （1） ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the delay between the emergence of general-purpose technologies and subsequent economic growth acceleration, questioning why previous technological revolutions did not lead to mass unemployment as feared by historical figures like Ned Ludd and John Maynard Keynes. It also explores the future of the artificial intelligence revolution in terms of job creation versus destruction [1][11]. Group 1: Characteristics of General-Purpose Technologies - General-purpose technologies are characterized by three fundamental features: they spawn numerous secondary waves of innovation, they improve over time leading to reduced user costs, and they become ubiquitous across all sectors of the economy [3][4]. - Secondary innovations are crucial as they adapt general-purpose technologies to specific sector needs, enhancing productivity and serving as a source of long-term growth. However, these innovations require time and resource reallocation, which can temporarily lower GDP growth rates [5][8]. Group 2: Delays in Technology Adoption - There are instances where society may never optimally adopt new technologies due to a lack of secondary innovations or widespread acceptance, leading to missed opportunities for productivity improvements [7]. - The transition from old to new general-purpose technologies often intensifies the process of creative destruction, as new firms can avoid the costs associated with transitioning from outdated technologies [8]. Group 3: Impact on Employment - Historical perspectives reveal that fears of machines destroying jobs have existed for centuries, but technological advancements have often led to positive effects on production, exports, and employment [13][14]. - Automation has been shown to create more jobs than it destroys, with studies indicating that a 1% increase in automation can lead to a 0.25% increase in employment two years later and a 0.4% increase ten years later [15][16]. Group 4: Conclusion on Technological Revolutions - The article challenges two common misconceptions: that technological revolutions inevitably lead to accelerated growth and that they are detrimental to employment. While growth may accelerate, it often requires a time lag, and inappropriate institutional frameworks can hinder the potential benefits of new technologies [17][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that consumption is a fundamental force driving economic growth, and the recent Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to strengthen support for boosting consumption [1] - The digital economy is significantly influencing consumption by expanding consumer groups, with a notable increase in internet penetration among the elderly population, exceeding 50% for those aged 60 and above [2] - New products and services are emerging from the digital economy, including wearable devices and online shopping, which simplify traditional service transactions and activate potential consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The digital economy promotes fairness and efficiency in consumption by providing equal access to various consumer groups through open data and digital platforms, while also reducing transaction costs and enhancing consumer willingness [3] - Employment stability is crucial for consumption stability, and the development of the digital economy can expand job opportunities and increase income for residents, thereby encouraging consumption [4] - The consumption environment, influenced by legal, social, and technological factors, needs to be improved to foster consumer confidence and safety in digital transactions [5] Group 3 - The digital economy creates new consumer products that can drive industrial upgrades and supply changes, expanding new consumption spaces [6] - The application of digital technologies and data elements in strategic emerging industries can create new consumption growth points and enhance industrial efficiency [6]