以下文章来源于格隆汇交易学苑 ，作者格隆汇小编 格隆汇交易学苑 . 以基本面为基础，专注于趋势交易 入选核心资产的逻辑： 智能驾驶走向规模化落地，算法与芯片协同构筑长期确定性 。 在新一轮科技产业周期中，智能驾驶正逐步从 "技术前沿展示"阶段，过渡至以规模化落地为核心特征的产业化阶 段。随着行业关注点由算力参数、模型指标，转向量产能力、工程稳定性与交付可靠性，企业间的竞争维度正在发 生实质性变化，具备工程体系与持续交付能力的厂商开始显现相对优势。 这一演进路径，在一定程度上可类比 2025年AI产业链中中际旭创、新易盛与天孚通信的市场表现。上述公司并非 算力或模型叙事中的核心主体，但凭借在光模块及关键器件领域的工程能力与规模化交付经验，在AI需求放量阶段 获得了更高的业绩确定性，其角色更接近于产业链中的"基础设施型环节"。 对应至智能驾驶产业链，地平线机器人正在逐步体现出类似的结构性特征。其价值并不主要体现在单一芯片算力指 标或前沿算法突破，而在于 围绕 "算法+芯片+工程平台"所构建的系统级能力， 能够在成本、功耗、稳定性与长 期供货之间实现相对均衡。随着智能驾驶功能由高端车型向主流车型渗透，该类能力正在转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transition of intelligent driving from a "technology frontier display" phase to an industrialization phase characterized by large-scale implementation is highlighted, with a focus on the importance of engineering systems and continuous delivery capabilities for competitive advantage [1][4]. Industry Stage Assessment - Intelligent driving is entering a phase of engineering and large-scale competition, where the focus shifts from technical capabilities to stable and replicable operation in complex environments [3][4]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, emphasizing the need for scalable deployment solutions that meet cost, power consumption, stability, and long-term supply requirements [4]. Organizational and Governance Structure - The company has maintained a focused strategic path since its inception, emphasizing an "edge AI computing platform" and targeting the complex application of intelligent driving [6][7]. - The organization prioritizes production-oriented engineering logic, integrating chip architecture, algorithm capabilities, and customer delivery systems within the same product framework [7]. Business Foundation Analysis - The company is positioned as a provider of intelligent driving computing platforms rather than a traditional chip supplier, utilizing self-developed AI chip architecture (BPU) to offer scalable solutions [8][9]. - The platform business model allows for continuous iteration and optimization based on engineering experience and data feedback, adapting to the shift in automotive demand from high-end to mainstream models [9]. Customer and Production Capability - Achieving mass production deployment is a critical indicator of a company's capabilities in the intelligent driving sector, with the company having established partnerships with several major automakers [12]. - Mass production requires higher standards for chip stability, algorithm robustness, and system consistency, which can deepen customer relationships but also increase quality responsibilities and delivery pressures [12][13]. Ecosystem and Collaboration - The company emphasizes collaborative development with automakers and Tier 1 suppliers rather than standard supply, fostering a continuous iteration within the same technical framework [14][15]. - This collaborative model enhances customer loyalty but may reduce flexibility in customer structure due to higher dependency on a single platform [15]. Industry Trends - The penetration rate of intelligent driving is still on the rise, supported by policy, consumer acceptance, and automaker strategies, with demand for computing platforms expected to expand beyond high-end configurations [16]. - However, uncertainties related to industry rhythm, price competition, and technological differentiation must be monitored, as increased penetration does not guarantee market share growth for any single vendor [16]. Financial Characteristics - As a growing tech company, the company exhibits financial characteristics of "high investment, with effects released after scaling," with revenue predictability expected to improve as the number of mass-produced models increases [17]. - Projected revenue for 2026 is estimated between 5.2 billion to 6.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 53% to 70%, with a market valuation range of about 160 billion HKD based on a 30x PS valuation assumption [17]. Conclusion - The company's core asset value lies in its "industrial certainty" as it transitions from technology validation to engineering and large-scale implementation in the intelligent driving sector [21][22]. - Long-term value realization is highly dependent on industry development pace, customer structure stability, and the company's execution capabilities, with stability, replicability, and scalability becoming crucial evaluation metrics [22].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of China has officially announced the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits, with Changan Automobile and BAIC Jihe receiving approvals for trial operations in designated areas of Chongqing and Beijing respectively [1][2] Group 1: L3 Autonomous Driving Development - The approval of L3 autonomous driving vehicles is expected to accelerate technological iterations within the industry and drive computing platforms towards automotive-grade standards and scalable applications [1][6] - L3 autonomous driving allows for partial decision-making by the system under specific conditions, enabling drivers to completely disengage from driving tasks [2][6] - Changan's approved model can achieve autonomous driving at speeds up to 50 km/h in congested scenarios on designated highways, while BAIC's Alpha S (L3 version) can reach speeds of 80 km/h on certain routes in Beijing [2] Group 2: Industry Competition and Collaboration - Major automotive companies have entered a competitive mode to commercialize autonomous driving technology, with several firms, including BAIC, GAC, and BYD, being included in the first batch of intelligent connected vehicle trial operations [4][6] - The collaboration between automotive manufacturers and technology companies is crucial for the commercial viability of L3 autonomous driving, with Horizon Robotics and Huawei providing essential technological support [5][6] Group 3: Safety and Regulatory Framework - The shift in driving responsibility due to autonomous driving raises concerns about accident liability, with regulations evolving to clarify responsibilities among users and autonomous systems [3][6] - The MIIT and other departments have emphasized the need for improved regulations and safety standards to support the growth of the autonomous driving sector [5][6] - The market for autonomous driving in China is projected to approach 450 billion yuan by 2025, driven by technological advancements and cost reductions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of China has officially granted the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits, allowing Changan Automobile and BAIC's Arcfox models to conduct road trials in designated areas of Chongqing and Beijing, respectively [1][4]. Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The MIIT has approved L3 autonomous driving vehicles under specific conditions, marking a significant step towards the commercialization of autonomous driving technology in China [4][9]. - The approval process involved thorough assessments and compliance with regulations, ensuring that the vehicles meet safety and operational standards [3][4]. Group 2: Vehicle Specifications and Capabilities - Changan's model can achieve autonomous driving at speeds up to 50 km/h in congested traffic conditions on designated roads in Chongqing [3][4]. - BAIC's Arcfox model can operate at speeds up to 80 km/h on specific highways in Beijing, showcasing the capabilities of L3 autonomous driving technology [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The autonomous driving industry is entering a competitive phase, with multiple automakers racing to develop and deploy L3 technology [6][9]. - Companies like GAC and BYD are also advancing their L3 capabilities, with GAC's model receiving a license for high-speed testing and BYD integrating L3 systems into urban driving scenarios [7][9]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Partnerships - The successful deployment of L3 technology relies on advanced sensor systems, with BAIC's Arcfox equipped with 34 high-performance sensors for comprehensive environmental perception [7][8]. - Partnerships with technology firms are crucial, as seen with Horizon Robotics and Huawei, which are providing the necessary technological foundation for L3 commercialization [8][10]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Future Projections - The autonomous driving market in China is projected to approach 450 billion yuan by 2025, driven by technological advancements and increasing adoption rates [9]. - The focus on safety, regulatory compliance, and user experience will shape the competitive landscape, with companies needing to balance innovation with responsible marketing practices [9][10].

当下中国市场对于智驾平权的需求与日俱增。高工智能汽车研究院数据显示，今年前三季度，20万元以 下价位车型，合计标配NOA交付量为172.42万辆，贡献整体市场交付量的近50%，增量贡献率达70%。 长期以来，高阶城区NOA等智能驾驶功能因高算力芯片成本、复杂算法研发投入，始终局限于20万元 以上高端车型。不过，技术迭代、规模效应与开放生态正持续破解这些难题，从征程2到征程6，五年时 间，地平线征程家族芯片累计出货量突破1000万套。根据余凯的规划，未来3—5年，地平线将与所有生 态伙伴携手，共同实现城区辅助驾驶方案HSD千万量产的目标。 今年10月，地平线HSD高阶城区辅助驾驶系统已通过星途ET5、深蓝L06两款车型完成量产首秀，其中 深蓝L06售价下探至13.29万元起，上市两周系统激活量即突破1.2万辆。由此开始，实现首发量产的 HSD系统，已将城区辅助驾驶体验带入15万元以内的主流市场。余凯介绍："HSD Together算法服务模 式的根本目的，是让合作伙伴能够基于地平线已验证的成熟智能基座，将产品开发中的人力投入、算力 消耗与上市周期均大幅降低90%。" 在加速推动智驾普惠的过程中，地平线征程家族产 ...