Core Insights - The Chinese smart driving industry has reached a critical turning point in 2025, transitioning from a phase of exploration to one dominated by scale and delivery, leading to the emergence of clear "losers" in the market [1][2] - The threshold of 1 million vehicles equipped with smart driving systems is becoming a significant benchmark, with companies like Yuanrong Qixing indicating that crossing this line will be essential for survival in 2026 [3][34] Competitors - As of January 1, 2026, a comprehensive overview of domestic smart driving solution providers reveals the competitive landscape among third-party suppliers [4] - Horizon Robotics has established partnerships with over 40 automakers, including major brands like SAIC and GAC, indicating its strong market presence [6] - By the end of 2025, Horizon's HSD system saw activation in over 12,000 vehicles shortly after its launch, showcasing its rapid adoption [8] - Companies like NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto are also significant players in the self-developed smart driving systems space, alongside traditional automakers like BYD and Great Wall [11] - The industry is witnessing a convergence of technology routes, with a consensus on end-to-end architecture and multi-modal large models, leading to a more competitive environment [12] - Huawei has crossed the 1 million vehicle mark with its smart driving system, establishing a unique position in the market [12][15] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a significant number of active smart driving brands, exceeding 15, which poses sustainability challenges for the industry [12] Exiting Players - The failures of companies like Haomo and Dazhuo in 2025 highlight the industry's harsh realities, with common issues including slow technology transitions and concentrated customer bases [29][30] - The inability to deliver products on time has been a critical factor in the downfall of these companies, emphasizing the need for rapid iteration and delivery capabilities [30] - The increasing number of exiting players is attributed to mismatched technology routes and capability shortfalls, with a shift towards data-driven solutions becoming essential for survival [32] "Killing Line" Approaching - The 1 million vehicle mark is emerging as a psychological threshold, with companies below this number at risk of being pushed out of the market [34] - This benchmark represents a cash flow turning point, where companies can begin to cover core investments through revenue generated from vehicle deployments [34] - Achieving this scale also enhances data density, allowing for better coverage and problem-solving capabilities in diverse driving scenarios [35] - The lack of a standardized reporting mechanism for vehicle deployment numbers leads to inflated claims by companies, complicating the competitive landscape [35] - The true survival criteria for smart driving companies will hinge on their ability to establish data-driven development paradigms and integrate them with traditional manufacturing processes [34][39]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is shifting towards localization in response to global market dynamics, with increasing competitiveness among domestic chip manufacturers in China [1][15]. Group 1: Collaboration and Competition - Chery Automobile and Horizon Robotics have expanded their collaboration, with plans for mass production of the Horizon SuperDrive (HSD) system in Chery's vehicles starting as early as September 2023 [5][4]. - The partnership aims to integrate Horizon's chip solutions across Chery's entire product line, including both fuel and new energy vehicles, while still utilizing NVIDIA's solutions for certain models [5][6]. - Domestic chip companies like Horizon and Black Sesame are gradually gaining market share from established players like NVIDIA, which has historically dominated the smart driving chip market in China [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Localization - The automotive industry in China is experiencing a significant shift towards smart technology, with local manufacturers increasingly adopting domestic chip solutions to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [6][9]. - Major suppliers like Aptiv are also working towards localizing their chip supply chains, although they acknowledge that achieving full localization remains a challenge [9][14]. - The market share of Qualcomm in the smart cockpit chip sector has increased significantly, from 65.4% to 77.0% within a year, indicating a strong competitive landscape [10]. Group 3: Strategic Responses to Geopolitical Challenges - U.S. chip companies are facing challenges in the Chinese market due to geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, prompting them to consider local production strategies [13][15]. - Companies like Texas Instruments are exploring local manufacturing options in China to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions and tariffs [14][15]. - The automotive supply chain is expected to adapt to these challenges, focusing on cost adjustments rather than severe shortages, as companies enhance their local capabilities [14].