以下文章来源于More Than Semi ，作者mofan More Than Semi . More Than SEMI 半导体行业研究 智能驾驶的竞争早已从算法功能的比拼，下沉到核心硬件芯片的博弈，这篇文章我们来聊一下今年 的智驾芯片市场格局。 一、国产智驾芯片发力 国产芯片的进展无疑是最受关注的焦点，其中地平线和Momenta的动向尤为关键。地平线的J6P芯片 已完成硬件设计，进入性能测试阶段，基础软件也已开始导入，与J6M和J6E平台软件体系保持一 致，目前已开展路试工作。从表现来看，该芯片在行车领域表现良好，但泊车领域仍需进一步优 化。按照计划，若测试顺利，2026年第二季度就能达到可上车状态并逐步优化。这款定位于 500TOPS算力层级的芯片主要面向中高端车型，目前已经适配了腾势N7、Z9GT以及奇瑞的500、700 系列车型，由于J6P芯片单套成本较高，短期内不会全面下放到低端车型。值得注意的是，大众等合 资品牌2026年第二季度后智能化提速，也将采用地平线J6P方案。价格方面，为了提升市场竞争力， 地平线计划2026年对J6P芯片降价15%左右，比亚迪等大客户通过谈判可达到20%的降幅，这无 ...

Core Insights - Qualcomm's historical performance in specific sectors often depends on external players, as seen in the smartphone era where companies like Samsung and Xiaomi propelled Snapdragon's dominance [1] - In the smart automotive sector, the decision-making power has shifted to numerous Chinese automotive participants, indicating a change in the ecosystem dynamics [2][8] Group 1: Qualcomm's Position in the Automotive Industry - Qualcomm hosted an "Automotive Technology and Cooperation Summit" in Suzhou, showcasing a comprehensive map of the Chinese smart automotive industry with key players from various segments [6][7] - Unlike the smartphone era where Qualcomm defined industry standards, in the smart driving era, Chinese partners have become the main drivers of the ecosystem, leading in the development of practical solutions [8] - The recent Snapdragon 8797 chip represents a shift from Qualcomm's previous product positioning, serving as a flexible "integrated central computing platform" rather than a purely smart driving chip [12] Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics - The Snapdragon 8797 chip boasts an estimated sparse equivalent computing power exceeding 700 TOPS, meeting the performance needs for both cockpit and smart driving applications [13] - Chinese partners are pushing for stronger AI performance, with some opting to use the more powerful 8797 chip for cockpit solutions instead of the newly released 8397 [14][15] - Xiaomi's approach is notably radical, integrating the consumer-grade Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 chip into the cockpit and deeply combining it with NVIDIA's Thor chip, highlighting a trend towards cross-brand chip integration [17][22] Group 3: Market Challenges and Opportunities - Qualcomm's product rollout speed is not industry-leading, with the Snapdragon 8797 expected to enter mass production in early 2026, lagging behind competitors [23] - Despite challenges in software support compared to NVIDIA, Qualcomm's partners can leverage their capabilities to fill gaps, allowing Qualcomm to focus on chip design and production [25] - The current market landscape shows that Qualcomm's mid-tier products, such as the 8620 and 8650, are gaining traction as mainstream options, driven by the cost-effectiveness of combining Qualcomm hardware with Chinese partners' software [26][28] Group 4: Innovation and Strategic Shifts - The intense competitive environment in China is fostering innovation, compelling all participants, including chip giants, to adopt more agile and market-responsive development models [34] - Major global players are increasingly focusing on the Chinese market, with strategies evolving to operate independently within China while developing competitive products for the global market [36] - The collaboration between companies like GAC Toyota and local partners such as Huawei and Xiaomi signifies a broader trend of integrating local resources to enhance competitiveness in the automotive sector [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on leading third-party intelligent driving suppliers, highlighting their potential to capture approximately 50% of the new car sales market share due to the demand for equal access to intelligent driving technology and performance improvements [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the historical breakthrough opportunities for domestic intelligent driving chips, particularly focusing on the competitive landscape where domestic suppliers are catching up with NVIDIA in terms of product performance and mass production validation [2][30]. - The report discusses the importance of a combined hardware and software approach, noting that Horizon Robotics is currently one of the few suppliers capable of delivering both high-level intelligent driving chips and algorithms, positioning itself strongly within the industry [5][71]. Summary by Sections 1. Positive Outlook on Domestic Intelligent Driving Chips - The report identifies a significant opportunity for domestic intelligent driving chips, driven by the increasing demand for equal access to intelligent driving technology [7]. - It highlights that the competition among car manufacturers is intensifying, leading to a shift towards third-party intelligent driving solutions as a preferred option for second and third-tier car manufacturers [2][19]. 2. Analysis of Horizon Robotics - Horizon Robotics is entering a new cycle of product iteration and business model enhancement, leading the domestic chip suppliers in the rollout of high-level intelligent driving systems [5][81]. - The company’s unique soft-hard integration strategy allows it to optimize performance and cost, making it a key player in the intelligent driving supply chain [5][71]. 3. Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics - The report notes that the intelligent driving market is expected to see a significant increase in penetration rates, with projections indicating that by 2026, urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) will become a standard feature [20][35]. - It discusses the evolving E/E architecture in the electric vehicle era, which provides a foundation for car manufacturers to expand their capabilities beyond traditional supply chain integration [12][16]. 4. Technological Advancements and Innovations - The report highlights the advancements in intelligent driving algorithms, particularly the shift towards a "heavy perception, light map" approach, which has been validated and widely adopted [2][54]. - It also emphasizes the role of reinforcement learning in enhancing intelligent driving models, providing new solutions to complex driving scenarios [56][62]. 5. Cost and Performance Considerations - The report provides insights into the cost structure of intelligent driving chips, indicating that achieving economies of scale and rapid iteration capabilities are crucial for car manufacturers considering in-house chip development [49][50]. - It compares the performance metrics of various intelligent driving solutions, showcasing the competitive positioning of domestic suppliers against established players like NVIDIA [32][33].